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The CLW Aquatic Systems Modelling Team
Barbara Robson
20 May 2009
CSIRO.
Team composition (de facto)
Most team members have a range of skills in assessing & modelling interactions between hydrodynamics, biogeochemistry and low-level ecology of aquatic systems (rivers, estuaries, reservoirs and coastal systems). Areas of particular individual focus include:
• Brad Sherman, group leader• Reservoir studies and catchment management
• Barbara Robson, team leader• Modelling biogeochemistry and primary production
• Nicky Grigg• Complex systems science
• Ian Webster• Hydrodynamics and thermodynamics
• Phillip Ford, retirement fellow• Aquatic biogeochemistry and radionucleide chemistry
CSIRO.
Key points of focus
• Use of models to diagnose and understand systems as much as (or more than) as predictive tools
• Emphasis on models based on biophysical process understanding
• Design of projects in which field work and models are complementary
• Emphasis on choosing the right model and framework for the question at hand rather than developing a single model product
CSIRO.
Some Current areas of work in the Catchment-to-Coast space
• The Coorong and Murray Mouth, S.A.• The problem: Greatly reduced flows have put the Coorong under
great stress. Salinity now 5x seawater is adversely affecting ecological values.
• Our role 1. Modelling salinity responses to management options and providing inputs to an ecological response model for long-term (100 year) scenarios.
• 2. Data-driven nutrient budgets to improve understanding of primary production.
• Models used: custom-built 1D hydrodynamic model, 1D biogeochemical model and inverse flux model
CSIRO.
FBA modelling projects: path to impact
CLLAMMecologyecological model
BigMOD (MDBC)
CSIRO Sustainable Yields Project
Climate ChangeScenarios
Cooronghydrodynamic
model
flows from the Murray River
Salinity and waterlevel in the Coorong
rainfall
Impact on fish,birds, plants andinvertebrates
CSIRO.
Calibration check
CSIRO.
Scenario comparisons – salinity time series
CSIRO.
Some current areas of work in the Catchment-to-Coast space
• The Fitzroy Estuary and Keppel Bay, Qld.• The problem: The Fitzroy is the largest river feeding into the Great
Barrier Reef Lagoon. We need to understand processes in the estuary to understand how the Fitzroy Basin affects the reef.
• Our role: Modelling hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics (with John’s team), biogeochemistry, and exports to the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon
• Using catchment model outputs (SedNet-ANNEX) as scenario inputs
• Linking models with remote sensing
• Model used: EMS
CSIRO.
Linking with remote sensing / satellite observations
0
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7000
8/01
/200
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15/0
1/2
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22/0
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29/0
1/2
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5/02
/200
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/200
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date
Fit
zro
y R
iver
flo
w (
m3/
s)
150.4 150.5 150.6 150.7 150.8 150.9 151 151.1
-23.65
-23.6
-23.55
-23.5
-23.45
-23.4
-23.35
-23.3
-23.25
-23.2tss 07-Feb-2008
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
CSIRO.
FBA modelling projects: path to impact
Impact on key environmental
assets in Keppel Bay
SedNet-ANNEXModel
WQ triggersestablished byexpert panel
On-Ground Management Action
Plans
Receiving WatersModel (EMS)
Sediment andnutrient loads from the catchment
WQ concentrationsin Keppel Bay
Changes in land useand condition
Exports to theGreat Barrier ReefLagoon
WaterCASTin future?
CSIRO.
Scenario visualisation tool
CSIRO.
Current work – Brad Sherman
• Uncertainty in great Barrier Reef Catchment soil nutrient data• Analysis of availability and accuracy of soil nutrient data across all
GBR catchments, and implications for modelling and management
• Found very sparse data (only ~25% of subcatchments had even one soil nitrogen measurement), and relative uncertainty of 75% for TN and TP estimates from SedNet and other sources
• Concludes that there is not enough data to support modelling catchment nutrient loads on higher time-scales
TP TN
CSIRO.
Current work – Barbara Robson, Ian Webster and others
• The Daly River, N.T.• The problem: Tropical rivers are relatively poorly understood in
comparison with southern counterparts. We need to understand them better if we are to manage continued development.
• Our role: • Coordinating fieldwork to characterise biogeochemical processes in the
Daly River.• Modelling hydraulics, nutrients and primary production (Spirogyra,
Nitella, Vallisineria) in the river
• Models used: HEC-RAS, custom-built sand-ripple thermodynamics model, (in preparation) custom nutrient flux and plant succession model
CSIRO.
Model domain
• xxxx
CSIRO.
Model simulation – water surface elevation
Q = 20 m3s-1
n = 0.025
CSIRO.
Current work – Nicky Grigg and Phillip Ford
• The Logan-Albert Estuary, Qld.• The problem: need to understand flow and nutrient dynamics in
order to manage algal blooms and nutrient delivery to Morton Bay.
• Flows are difficult to routinely measure, as tides affect water level at gauging stations.
• Our role: • Modelling tidal dynamics and calculating nutrient budgets• Calculating water velocity from stage height in a tidal environment
• Model used: cluster-weighted probability density function
CSIRO.
Tidal influence on stage-height
CSIRO.
Can we build stage-discharge relationships in tidally influenced reaches?
CSIRO.
Characterising nonlinear dynamics in stage-velocity relationships
Estimate a probability density function that captures relationship between velocity and time-lagged stage height using Cluster-Weighted Modelling (Gershenfeld et al, 1999)
CSIRO.
Discharge predictions: nonlinear time series model
Cluster-weighted model predictionMeasured
CSIRO.
Key points of focus
• Use of models to diagnose and understand systems as much as (or more than) as predictive tools
• Emphasis on models based on biophysical process understanding
• Design of projects in which field work and models are complementary
• Emphasis on choosing the right model and framework for the question at hand rather than developing a single model product
CSIRO.
The Future?
• Carbon flux modelling (climate change)• More focus on uncertainty in measurements and modelling• New challenges for new sites and scales e.g. Great Barrier
Reef• Complex systems science, e.g.
• Nonlinear dynamics: issues of model validation and comparison particular to nonlinear systems
• Stability and resilience of foodwebs
• More integration:• Aquatic systems with catchment models
• Biophysics with ecology
• Aquatic systems with climate models
• Biophysics with socioeconomics
• Integration of remote sensing and in situ data
CSIRO.
Thank you
CSIRO.
Model domain
1D hydrodynamic model with inverse mouth opening model
CSIRO.
Channel definition
CSIRO.
Model simulation – water surface elevation
Q = 20 m3s-1
n = 0.025
CSIRO.
Model application
CSIRO.
Ripple-induced interstitial flow
• schematic of advective flow
• flow around a porous mound (Huettel et al. 1996)
CSIRO.
Sediment-water exchange
Measured temperatures Modelled temperatures
CSIRO.
Named models
• Some of the named modelling packages that we have experience in using:
• EMS and SHOC
• SedNet-ANNEX
• CWR models: • DYRESM (1D hydrodynamic model)• ELCOM (3D hydrodynamic model)• CAEDYM (ecological model with DYRESM or CAEDYM)
• HEC-RAS (1D hydraulic model)
• Other hydrodynamic models: POM, TRIM