The Cigarette Market in Nigeria

Product Code: CG0172MR

Published Date: May 2015

Report Price: US$ 975 (Single Copy)

Synopsis “Cigarettes in Nigeria” report is a qualitative report providing extensive and highly detailed consumption data

on the Cigarettes industry in Nigeria.

This report is the result of ERC’s extensive market research covering Cigarettes across Nigeria. The

report provides consumption data based upon a unique combination of industry research, fieldwork,

market sizing work and our in-house expertise in the Cigarettes industry in order to offer extensive

data about the trends and dynamics affecting the Cigarettes industry.

This report is aimed at companies operating in the Cigarettes industry and for new companies

considering entry into Cigarettes industry.

This report provides detailed data of the manufacturers operating in the Cigarettes industry in Nigeria.

This report also provides market size of the Cigarettes industry in Nigeria along with other data

relating to the regulations, retail price, smoking population, production & trade and forecast data

Summary “The Cigarette Market in Nigeria” is a new report by ERC that focuses on the extent to which Nigeria

Cigarettes market has evolved in line with changing smoking habits, the competitive environment and

economic developments, as well as analyzing the implications market realignments have had on top

multinational companies.

Scope

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Cigarettes market in Nigeria

It provides volume and per-capita consumption of cigarettes for 2013 and forecast figures for 2023

It provides value and volume break-up of the Cigarettes market at segment level.

Reasons to Buy Cigarettes companies require a detailed understanding of Cigarettes consumption in order to align their sales

and marketing efforts with the latest trends in the market. This report clarifies in detail, by region and

company, where the growth opportunities are in Cigarettes industry to enable effective marketing plan

As consumers’ product demands evolve, the dynamics between different countries also change – favoring

some countries and leaving others increasingly out of line with demand patterns. As a result, understanding

the shifting market dynamics is key to ensuring maximum sales in the future

The differing growth rates in overall regional product sales drive fundamental shifts in the market. This report

provides detailed, authoritative data on these changes for marketers

The report provides the latest data on market dynamics in the Cigarettes industry across Nigeria, providing

marketers with essential data in order to understand their own position in the market and to identify where to

compete in the future

1 Market Size

The situation in 2012 was disappointing for the sector with a combination of political and social unrest, especially in the north, depressing sales. Volumes fell by an estimated 15% to end the year at XX billion pieces. A further, slight fall in sales to XX billion pieces followed in 2013 to take the market to 118.8% above 1990 levels. Forecasts for 2014 are for a rise of XX billion pieces to XX billion pieces and offer evidence that the sector is strengthening.

Duty Paid Cigarette Consumption, 1990-2014

Billion Pieces % Annual Change Index 1990 = 100.0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014f

Duty Paid & Non-Duty Paid Cigarette Consumption, 1990-2013

Billion Pieces

Duty Paid Non-Duty Paid

Total Non-Duty Paid as % of Total

Total Per Capita Pieces

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Duty Paid Per Capita Consumption, 1990-2014

Per Capita Consumption

Population Millions

Pieces/Day Pieces/Week Pieces/Year % Change Index 1990 = 100.0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014f

2 Production and Trade

Volumes are believed to have risen by 14.2% in 2007 to XX billion pieces with a further 49.1% increase in 2008 to XX billion pieces. Some XX billion pieces are estimated for 2009, based on legitimate consumption and trade, although output is believed to have dropped back in 2010 and 2011 to just under XX billion pieces. Latest estimates for 2012 put output at XX billion pieces, rising to XX billion pieces in 2013 - 287.5% up on 1990 levels.

Cigarette Production, 1990-2013

Million Pieces % Annual Change Index 1990 = 100.0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

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2007

2008

2009e

2010e

2011e

2012e

2013e

Cigarette Imports, 1990-2013

Million Pieces % Annual Change Index 1990 = 100.0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Methodology

ERC’s research methodology includes the following steps in order to ensure a robust research programme to deliver the highest quality market insights: Information Scanning Thorough investigation of all published sources worldwide to highlight gaps and decide means of obtaining information requirements. Economic Intelligence Gathering all relevant: • Statistical data • financial information • Industrial data • economic information Collection of Published Research A thorough search to identify and obtain relevant published material using: • Media sources • corporate literature • Trade journals • on-line services • ERC databank • national press • Research institutes. In-Country Research Field research conducted in each country designed to: • collect informed and up-to-date information from interviews to gauge attitudes, expectations and current market developments. • monitor product and brand availability, prices and facings allocation through specially commissioned retail store checks.

In-House Research & Analysis Based on a solid knowledge of the current market scenario and years of experience in the area of global tobacco market research, further telephone interviews are carried out with leading manufacturers and industrial competitors. The result is first-hand knowledge of new product developments, user-ship patterns, new investments and inherent market trends.

About ERC – a division of Canadean

Canadean is a full-service business information provider with in-house market research capabilities. We specialize in analysis across the Consumer Markets Value Chain, covering suppliers, producers, distribution, and consumers. Canadean’s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with an industry background in marketing, market research, consulting, and advanced statistical expertise. We offer value-added market research, insight, and strategic analysis and our products help companies to make better, more informed, strategic and tactical sales, and marketing decisions. Canadean’s areas of expertise include online research, qualitative and quantitative research, industry analysis, custom approaches, and actionable insights. In addition, Canadean has built a network of consultants and specialist researchers across more than 60 countries, each with in-depth industry experience and expertise enabling us to conduct unique and insightful research via our trusted business communities. ERC's analysts and researchers are thoroughly experienced within the tobacco industry, with over 30 years’ experience of researching this challenging area. Their knowledge & expertise of specific market drivers, industry developments as well as regulatory and operating constraints in tobacco industry, ensure that clients benefit completely from ERC's high standards of research methodology and industry insights.

Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, Canadean. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Canadean delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such, Canadean can accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

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The Cigarettes Market in Israel

The Cigarettes Market in Morocco

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The Cigarettes Market in South Africa

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Table of Contents

Overview 1-2 Market Size 3-6

Duty Paid Cigarette Consumption, 1990-2014 4

Duty Paid & Non-Duty Paid Cigarette Consumption, 1990-2013 5

Duty Paid Per Capita Consumption, 1990-2014 6

Market Structure 7-8

Cigarette Market by Pack Type, 2000-2008 7

Manufacturers & Brands 9-12

Manufacturer Sales & Shares, 2000-2014 10

Taxation & Retail Prices 13-16

Taxation 13

Retail Prices 13-15

Brands by Category 14

Average Retail Prices of Cigarette Brands in Ibadan, Nigeria, May 2013 14

Price Index (Alcohol & Tobacco), 2009-2014 15

The Smoking Population 17-20

Smoking Population, 1990-2013 17

Production & Trade 21-26

Production 21-22

Cigarette Production, 1990-2013 21

Imports 22-24

Cigarette Imports, 1990-2013 23

Imports by Country of Origin, 2003-2013 24

Exports 25-26

Exports by Country of Destination, 2008-2013 26

Operating Constraints 27-30 Advertising Restrictions 27-28

Health Warnings 28

Other Restrictions 28-29

Company Profiles 31-32

British American Tobacco (Nigeria) Ltd 31

Prospects & Forecasts 33-34

Consumption Forecasts to 2023 34