THE CHARACTERISATION OF A RIVER BASIN DISTRICT Case study on the construction of the baseline scenario Inspired from the Oise case (F) Most elements picked

THE CHATHE CHA RACTERISATION RACTERISATION OF A RIVER BASIN DISTRICTOF A RIVER BASIN DISTRICT

Case study on the construction

of the baseline scenarioInspired from

the Oise case (F)

Most elements picked from "Réalisation de scénarios de référence sur le bassin de l'Oise et de l'Aisne",

Agence de l'eau Seine-Normandie, 2002

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

Only mentioned in the directive annex III: one aspect of the 2004

characterisation What role for the baseline scenario?

forecast what would happen in a given river basin district without WFD

basis of risk of non-compliance analysis feeds economic analysis

BASELINE SCENARIO UNDER WFD

Most elements come from WATECO

Guidance2/11

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

FLOW CHART OF THE PROCEDURE FOR CONSTRUCTING BASELINE

SCENARIO

3/11

Main steps

WFD procedure

Goal

Characterisation

- Description of the district

- Economic analysis of water uses /

services- Recovery of costs- Baseline scenario- Identification of

potential gaps

Monitoring programm

e

Management plan

Good Ecological Status

2004

2006

2009

2015

Assess current trends in trend variables

Project certain changes in water policy variables

Derive one/several realistic business as usual scenarios

Integrate changes in critical uncertainties (optional)

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

BASELINE SCENARIO IN PRACTICE

Sourc

e:

Min

istr

y o

f th

e e

nvir

onm

ent,

Québ

ec,

Canad

a

1995 2005 2015

4/11

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

PRESENTATION OF THE RIVER BASIN

Physical description17 000 km²2 400 km of streams with 2

main rivers (A and B)14 sub-sectors1,8 M inhabitants

5/11

Water related concerns High diffuse pollution from agricultural runoff High urban water intensity Dense industrial concentration Poor water quality in River A and in small

tributaries

River A

River B

River basin

sub-sectors

Goal:

forecast water

status

in 2015

Source of original map: Agence de l'Eau Seine-Normandie

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

THE METHODOLOGY APPLIED

Con

tin

uou

s in

volv

em

en

tof

stake

hold

ers

Appraisal of water status in

2015

Experts' judgements

Hydrological model to simulate impact of discharges

Statistical forecasts

6/11

Determination of trends until

2015

from evolution of activities… …to evolution of discharges

E.g. +50 000 inhabitants +3 new industries ~+58 000 EH to be treated

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

1990-99: +2,7% 1,8 million inhabitants in

1999 higher increase close to

major urban areas and along rivers A & B

Trend 1988-00: -8% livestock

Present annual discharges: organic matters: 1900t reduced nitrogen: 250t phosphorus: 50t

ASSESS CURRENT TRENDS IN TREND VARIABLES

Do not rely too much on past projections:it may lead to false projections

Disaggregated approach might be preferable. E.g. for demand forecasting

7/11

Demography Rural discharges

individual stormwater

Urban discharges collective stormwater

Agricultural discharges Industrial discharges

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

PROJECT CERTAIN CHANGES IN WATER POLICY VARIABLES

E.G. URBAN DISCHARGES

8/11

Hypothesis: full implementation of

urban wastewater directive (91/271/EEC)

• Actions 306 000 more inhabitants con-

nected to pipes rehabilitation of pipes creation, extension,

improvement of 270 existing treatment plants (2,175M EH)

improvement of stormwater col-lection

• Impacts better collection rate

more effluents to treat increased treatment

performances higher depollution rate

Connected industry

340

- 12%

HousingActivities

1 147

140

Urban wastewatertreatment plant

Charge : 1 487Depollution: 1 347

Urban soils

Charge: 71Depollution: 7

71

13 64 158

Stormwater treatment

Discharges of organic matters from urban origins: projection in

2015

Figures: x1000 EHSource of original map: Agence de l'Eau Seine-Normandie

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

Hypothesis: full implementation of urban wastewater directive

(91/271/EEC)

• Impacts69 M€/yr if actions are

phased between 2000 and 2015

185 M€/yr if directive deadline (2005) is implemented

101 M€/yr if implementation is "postponed" until 2010

Actions Cost

306 000 more inhabitantsconnected to pipes

610 M€

rehabilitation of pipes 75 M€

creation, extension, improvementof 270 existing treatment plants

323 M€

improvement of stormwatercollection

110 M€

Total estimated costs 1 113 M€

• Estimation of costs

EXAMPLE OF PROJECTION OF CERTAIN CHANGES

IN WATER POLICY VARIABLES: APPLICATION TO URBAN DISCHARGES

Figures to be

compared with

actual

investment: 46

M€ in 2000

9/11

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

HYPOTHESIS: +4% average annual rainfall i.e. +18-44mm/year

CONSEQUENCES

• cope with stormwater runoff collection and treatment disposal

• manage severe floods threats creation of 1 storage dam development of wetlands

and natural protections

INTEGRATE CHANGES IN CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

E.G. CLIMATE CHANGE

10/11

Impact on the status of water

simulation for 2015 with hydrological model


Scenario

1995 2005 2015

SIMULATION OF WATER STATUS IN 2015

Main statements Comments

Rough estimates of respectiveimpact of policies and main activities

Indications of the respective impactof policies and of main activities

Pre-identification of potential nonconformity with the goal

Consider supplementary measures +costs/benefits

Identification of main factors ofuncertainty (e.g. industry)

Useful further investigations wouldbe relevant

Experts' judgements coherent withmodel simulation

Relevant easy-to-use method to geta general overview

11/11

ConformityNon conformity+ improvement

Water status2000-2015

(results with the model)


Scenario

1995 2005 2015

GO FURTHER

Different types of variables to be examined when constructing the business as usual scenario

The role of public participation Data to be gathered in task 1 Recommended approach for task 2 Key issues to examine during task 3 Analysis of the sensibility of the

simulations

Derogation

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

DIFFERENT TYPES OF VARIABLESVariables Example

Trendvariables

Changes in demographic factors. e.g. population growth in specific urban areas

Economic growth and changes in economic activity composition e.g. growth of the relative importance of services

(bank instead of mining industry…) Changes in land planning

e.g. new areas dedicated to specific economic activities,land management in the catchment for reducing erosion

Water policyvariables

Planned investments in the water sector e.g. for developing water services or for restoring the natural en-

vironment/mitigating for damaging caused by given water uses Development of new technologies likely to impact on water use

for industrial production and related pressures.Criticaluncertainties

Changes in social values and policy drivers e.g. globalisation / regionalisation; policies relying on

economics, technology vs. on values and lifestyles Changes in natural conditions

e.g. climate change Changes in non-water sector policies

e.g. changes in agricultural policy or industrial policy thatwill affect economic sectors

Source: WATECO Guidance (Accompanying document), p.115

Scenario

1995 2005 2015

THE ROLE OF PUBLIC PARTICIPATION

Task Role of public participation Output

Task 1 System analysis and choice of determinant assumptions In-depth interviews with main stakeholders, experts andinstitutions of the district, aimed at: defining the key variables that determinate the water

system in the district according to the interlocutors; proposing a hierarchy for these variables (more or less

determinant); describing their range of variation

Overview of generaltrends in key variablesShort term projections

Task 2 Scenario building based on task 1 inputs and participationfrom stakeholders, experts, representatives, scientiststhrough working groups, thematic workshops, etc …

Baseline scenariowithout uncertainty

Task 3 Large-scale debate on the proposed scenarios: presentationat various policy levels, large communication, and collectionof opinions from the public. The list of assumptions thatunderlie the scenarios should be delivered as clearly aspossible to allow transparency and possibilities for criticismand reformulating, etc.

Alternative baselinescenarios incorporatinguncertainty

Task 4(optional)

Amendment of scenarios, and quantification refinement:based on previous tasks, derive and calculate the precisesignificance of scenarios for their systems and instruments:investment and subsidising system, pricing, technical actions,policy organisation, etc. Organisation of large-scalepublication and participative discussions.

Exploratory scenarios


Scenario

1995 2005 2015

DATA TO BE GATHERED IN TASK 1Action Key points Output

Identify trends inphysical parameters

Map evolution of: trends in water status over the past relevant period

E.g. evolution of pollution and ecological quality

Overview ofgeneral trends inthe hydrologicalsystem in the RBD.

Identify trends insocioeconomicdrivers influencingwater uses and,water services andimpacts

Map evolution of: equipment

E.g. water distribution and sewage, rates ofhouseholds and industries connected to public network

pricingE.g. pricing policies, average prices

usesE.g. hydropower, navigation, angling, etc.and related impactsE.g. power produced, transportation volumes,number of angling people, etc.

Overview ofgeneral trends inwater uses andservices in the RBD.

Identify trends inwater policies andregulations

list past and existing national water policies state the level of compliance with water-related

environmental directives (e.g. habitats directive)and describe past investments and efforts

describe trends in rates ofa. equipment in water distribution treatment and insewage treatment capacities;b. agri-environmental policies implementation;c. industrial compliance.

Overview ofgeneral trends inthe implementationof present waterpolicies andregulations.


Scenario

1995 2005 2015

RECOMMENDED APPROACH FOR TASK 2

Action Key points Output

Make assumptionsabout the futuredynamics of trendvariables identifiedin Task 1

determine whether parameters have stabilisedE.g. household connections to public networks, taxlevels

determine the supposed effect of proposed futurepolicy measures on the water statusE.g. new investment programmes, new nationalregulations, already planned institutional changesand public equipment policies such as energy,transportation, etc.: what possible effect on waterquality and availability?

Assumptions on thefuture dynamics oftrends

Make projectionsbased oncertain trends

derive the projected values of the differentparameters for 2015

check the general consistency of the differenttrends, explain the apparent inconsistencies (e.g.how can we explain a forecast of growinginvestments along with a supposed decrease in riverquality? Because of a rise in general pollution flowsout from economic growth)Propose one or several combinations of assumptionson trends

Baseline or businessas- usual projectionsof the RBD in 2015


Scenario

1995 2005 2015

KEY ISSUES TO EXAMINE DURING TASK 3

Action Key points Output

Identify changes to theparameters that areuncertain and couldhave significant impactson the water policy

Pay special attention to: increase in magnitude and frequency of uncertain

events (policy and technological shifts,meteorological events such as floods anddroughts occurrence)

possible reactions and feedbacks from theenvironment:- acceleration of water quality improvement dueto enhancing of auto-purification by the waterenvironment;

- apparition of new quality parameters previouslyhidden (again recommended use of modelling)

possible social changes having significant impactson the water system: consumption habits(housing, land planning, …), institutional designof water policy

possible economic changes having significantimpacts on the water system: economic growthcycles, investment flows, employment, economicpolicy, taxing system, etc.

associate and merge analyses of “demand” and of“supply” of water. Baseline scenarios areparticularly necessary for preventing thedissociation of supply policies and demand-sidemanagement, “putting offer and demand in thesame image”.

Alternativebaseline scenarios


Scenario

1995 2005 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE SENSIBILITY OF SIMULATIONS

Parameters Confidencein the data used

Uncertainty regardingthe achievement

of the goalVariation of the population high except in case of

structuring projectsglobally weak but locallyhigh

Performance of wastewatertreatment plants

fair low

Present rate ofdischarge of individualtreatment systems

low globally weak but locallyhigh

Industrial activity low high

Industry: rate of depollution fair low

Industry: change ofdepollution process

low low?

Evolution of livestock low high

Rate of discharge ofbreeding in surfacewater

low high

Parameters for which further investigation is needed are indicated in bold characters

Documents

THE CHARACTERISATION OF A RIVER BASIN DISTRICT Case study on the construction of the baseline scenario Inspired from the Oise case (F) Most elements picked