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The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio
imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio
ConferenceNovember 9, 2012San Antonio, TX
2
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000Population*
2010Population*
NumericalChange
2000-2010
PercentChange
2000-2010
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population
3
Percent Change Due to
Year* PopulationNumerical
ChangePercentChange
NaturalIncrease
NetMigration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35
2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33
2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6
2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011
Components of Change for San Antonio MSA,2000 to 2009
County
PopulationBirths-Deaths
Migration
2000 2009 Change Foreign DomesticAtascosa 38,628 44,633 6,005 3,168 365 2,727Bandera 17,645 20,560 2,915 165 130 2,689Bexar 1,392,931 1,651,448 258,517 140,886 29,689 96,635Comal 78,021 114,525 36,504 4,473 969 31,179Guadalupe 89,023 121,432 32,409 6,284 1,532 24,888Kendall 23,743 34,053 10,310 722 359 9,171Medina 39,304 44,728 5,424 2,127 171 3,356Wilson 32,408 40,749 8,341 1,621 46 6,802
Total 1,711,703 2,072,128 360,425 159,446 33,261 177,447
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2009)
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
6
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
7
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
8
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
White (non-Hispanic)
Hispanic
Age
Popu
latio
n
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
9
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Under 1 year4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
White M Hispanic M Black M Asian M Other M White FHispanic F Black F Asian F Other F
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
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Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
11
Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010
Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census
Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010
-20%-0%
1%-10%
10.1-25%
25.1%-50%
50.1%-82%
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1
12
20102012
20142016
20182020
20222024
20262028
20302032
20342036
20382040
20422044
20462048
205020,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010
Migration Scenarios
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
13
Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
14
Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F5
LT 0%
0-40%
41-100%
101-250%
251-500%
15
20102013
20162019
20222025
20282031
20342037
20402043
20462049
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
AtascosaBanderaBexarComalGuadelupeKendallMedinaWilson
Projected Population Growth in San Antonio SMSA Counties, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
16
Projected Population Growth in San Antonio SMSA Counties, 2010-2050
20102013
20162019
20222025
20282031
20342037
20402043
20462049
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
AtascosaBanderaComalGuadelupeKendallMedinaWilson
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
17
20102013
20162019
20222025
20282031
20342037
20402043
20462049
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
AtascosaBanderaKendallMedinaWilson
Projected Population Growth in San Antonio SMSA Counties, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Sources: 1980-2010 Census Counts, U.S. Census Bureau. 2050 Projection, Texas State Data Center 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Population Growth in San Antonio MSA, 1980-2050
County 1980 1990 2000 2010 2050 % Change 2010-2050
Bexar 988,800 1,185,394 1,392,931 1,714,773 3,180,782 85%Guadalupe 46,708 64,873 89,023 131,533 424,870 223%Comal 36,446 51,832 78,021 108,472 317,376 193%Wilson 16,756 22,650 32,408 42,918 108,349 152%Kendall 10,635 14,589 23,743 33,410 90,187 170%Medina 23,164 27,312 39,304 46,006 89,271 94%Atascosa 25,055 30,533 38,628 44,911 87,117 94%Bandera 7,084 10,562 17,645 20,485 31,742 55%
Total 1,154,648 1,407,745 1,711,703 2,142,508 4,329,694 102%
19
Demographics and Destiny
20
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.