20
The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio

imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio

ConferenceNovember 9, 2012San Antonio, TX

Page 2: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

2

Growing States, 2000-2010

2000Population*

2010Population*

NumericalChange

2000-2010

PercentChange

2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population

Page 3: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

3

Percent Change Due to

Year* PopulationNumerical

ChangePercentChange

NaturalIncrease

NetMigration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35

2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011

Page 4: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

Components of Change for San Antonio MSA,2000 to 2009

County

PopulationBirths-Deaths

Migration

2000 2009 Change Foreign DomesticAtascosa 38,628 44,633 6,005 3,168 365 2,727Bandera 17,645 20,560 2,915 165 130 2,689Bexar 1,392,931 1,651,448 258,517 140,886 29,689 96,635Comal 78,021 114,525 36,504 4,473 969 31,179Guadalupe 89,023 121,432 32,409 6,284 1,532 24,888Kendall 23,743 34,053 10,310 722 359 9,171Medina 39,304 44,728 5,424 2,127 171 3,356Wilson 32,408 40,749 8,341 1,621 46 6,802

Total 1,711,703 2,072,128 360,425 159,446 33,261 177,447

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2009)

Page 5: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

Page 6: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

6

http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

Page 7: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

7

http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

Page 8: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

8

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

Age

Popu

latio

n

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Page 9: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

9

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

White M Hispanic M Black M Asian M Other M White FHispanic F Black F Asian F Other F

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Page 10: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

10

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census

Legend

co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

Page 11: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

11

Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010

Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census

Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010

-20%-0%

1%-10%

10.1-25%

25.1%-50%

50.1%-82%

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys

-3 to -0.5

-0.49 to -.001

0

.001 to .5

.51-2.1

Page 12: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

12

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

20422044

20462048

205020,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

60,000,000Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010

Migration Scenarios

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections

Page 13: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

13

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F6

-6,200 - 0

1 - 2,000

2,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 -3,480,000

Page 14: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

14

Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F5

LT 0%

0-40%

41-100%

101-250%

251-500%

Page 15: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

15

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

AtascosaBanderaBexarComalGuadelupeKendallMedinaWilson

Projected Population Growth in San Antonio SMSA Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Page 16: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

16

Projected Population Growth in San Antonio SMSA Counties, 2010-2050

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

AtascosaBanderaComalGuadelupeKendallMedinaWilson

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Page 17: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

17

20102013

20162019

20222025

20282031

20342037

20402043

20462049

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

AtascosaBanderaKendallMedinaWilson

Projected Population Growth in San Antonio SMSA Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Page 18: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

Sources: 1980-2010 Census Counts, U.S. Census Bureau. 2050 Projection, Texas State Data Center 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Population Growth in San Antonio MSA, 1980-2050

County 1980 1990 2000 2010 2050 % Change 2010-2050

Bexar 988,800 1,185,394 1,392,931 1,714,773 3,180,782 85%Guadalupe 46,708 64,873 89,023 131,533 424,870 223%Comal 36,446 51,832 78,021 108,472 317,376 193%Wilson 16,756 22,650 32,408 42,918 108,349 152%Kendall 10,635 14,589 23,743 33,410 90,187 170%Medina 23,164 27,312 39,304 46,006 89,271 94%Atascosa 25,055 30,533 38,628 44,911 87,117 94%Bandera 7,084 10,562 17,645 20,485 31,742 55%

Total 1,154,648 1,407,745 1,711,703 2,142,508 4,329,694 102%

Page 19: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

19

Demographics and Destiny

Page 20: The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio imagineSanAntonio Livable San Antonio Conference November 9, 2012 San Antonio, TX

20

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.