The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI)Texas Workforce Commission

richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105

Are you a Left Brain (analytical, data driven, logical) or Right Brain (creative, intuitive, philosophical)?

The Bad News…The Money economy and the Job

Market are 2 different birds

The Good News… A Recovery in the Money economy is definitely at hand, e.g. GDP, profits, stocks

Is it still an economic downturn or

a crisis in confidence?

Consumers are staying in cash

Corporate profits have recovered

Texas Consumer Behavior

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PercentIndexConsumer Expectations and Changes in GDP

*Quarterly changes in real Gross Domestic Product at annual rates, based on chain-type 2005 weighted measures.Shaded areas represent periods of recession.Sources: The Conference Board; The Nielsen Company; TNS; BEA; NBER

Expectations: Conference BoardSurvey

Index 1985 = 100Left Scale

GDP*Right Scale 9/11

TerroristAttacks Iraqi

War

HurricaneKatrina

Harry Truman is purported to have said,

All my economists say, “on the one, or on the other hand”…what I really need is a one-handed economist.

Is the Economic Glass Half Full? or Half Empty?

• Unemployment rate falling• More sectors contribute to

job growth• Corporations cash-rich• 29 months of job growth• Spending is up, savings

rate up, consumers lowering debt burden

• Consumer confidence is improving

• House prices near bottom?• UI initial claims are down

• Real estate, construction and govt. still reeling

• European debt/bank crisis still looming

• Slowing global GDP • Energy prices?• Lack of confidence in

demand, political system• Still tight lending

standards & terms• Net worth down$9.4 tril

from peak

The Interworkings of the Global Economy

Comparative Total Population Change in Texas 2000-2010

13

2000Population

2010Population

ABS CHG2000-10

PCT CHG 2000-10

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010

Number of People

82 - 9,999

10,000 - 24,999

25,000 - 99,999

100,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 4,092,459

Percent Change

-21% - -10.1%

-10% - -0.1%

0% - 24.9%

25% - 54.9%

55% - 81.8%

Where Texans Live Where Texans have moved

Texas becomes more Hispanic

Tough Competition: Generation X, Y, and Baby Boomer Employment in Texas 2000 - 2008

How many Millenials does it take to screw in a light bulb?

1. One to the instructions2. One to post the instructions on the wall

of their page3. One to post the video of their

work showing collaborationOne Baby Boomer to tell them what a terrific, wonderful, spectacular job they

did with the light bulb

Texas Private Job Growth By Time period (Nov 2011)

2007 to 2008 2008 to 2009 2009 to 2010 2010 to 2011

Texas North Dakota Texas CaliforniaNew York Alaska Indiana TexasOklahoma South Dakota Massachusetts FloridaWashington Vermont Michigan New YorkLouisiana Dist of Columbia Minnesota New Jersey

Colorado Wyoming Pennsylvania Massachusetts

Dist of Columbia Montana New York Louisiana

North Dakota Rhode Island Oklahoma PennsylvaniaMassachusetts Delaware Maryland OhioWyoming Maine Dist of Columbia Arizona

Texas & U.S. Labor Market Statistics

Dec 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2010Texas Labor Force +169,500 YOY

12,378,800 12,361,500 12,209,300

Texas Unemployed

959,400 997,100 1,010,700

Texas U Rate 7.8% 8.1% 8.3%

U.S. Labor Force +274,000 YOY

153,887,000 153,937,000 153,613,000

U.S. Unemployed 13,097,000 13,323,000 14,393,000

U.S. Urate 8.5% 8.7% 9.4%

San Antonio Urate**

6.8% 7.0% 7.2%

Goods Producing Employment Trends (1995-2011)

Texas Industry Growth December 2010-11 YOYIndustry Dec 2011 ABS CHG PER CHG

Total Nonagricultural 10,649,200 204,500 2.0 Total Nongovernment (aka private) 8,843,900 260,000 3.0 Goods-Producing 1,686,100 59,600 3.7% Service-Providing 8,963,100 144,900 1.6%Professional and Business Services 1,343,700 53,100 4.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,108,000 45,800 2.2 Leisure and Hospitality 1,060,200 41,200 4.0 Mining and Logging 257,900 40,700 18.7 Education and Health Services 1,443,500 36,900 2.6 Manufacturing 837,400 25,200 3.1 Financial Activities 638,800 18,000 2.9 Other Services 378,700 13,300 3.6 Construction 590,800 -6,300 -1.1 Information 184,900 -7,900 -4.1 Government 1,805,300 -55,500 -3.0

Detailed View: Texas Job Growth Nov 2010 - Nov 2011

INDUSTRY TITLE Nov 2011 ABS CHG PER CHGAmbulatory Health Care Services 631,300 40,200 6.8%Administrative and Support Services 663,900 32,300 5.1%Food Services and Drinking Places 826,400 30,500 3.8%Support Activities for Mining 148,900 28,100 23.3%Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores 131,400 13,900 11.8%Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 155,800 12,400 8.7%Accommodation 110,700 11,200 11.3%Machinery Manufacturing 98,800 10,900 12.4%Fabricated Metal Product Manufacture 124,400 10,100 8.8%Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 294,400 9,900 3.5%Repair and Maintenance Services 116,000 8,800 8.2%Construction of Buildings 142,900 7,500 5.5%Oil and Gas Extraction 89,400 6,500 7.8%

Detailed View: Texas Job Decline Nov 2010 - Nov 2011

INDUSTRY TITLE Nov 2011 ABS CHG PER CHG Local Government (incl. education) 1,261,600 -49,900 -3.8% State Government (incl. education) 372,400 -13,300 -3.5% Social Assistance & Child Care 186,900 -7,500 -3.9% Telecommunications 80,700 -5,200 -6.1% Nonmetallic Mineral Manufacture 30,800 -1,900 -5.8%Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 36,500 -1,800 -4.7%Insurance Carriers & Activities 155,300 -1,800 -1.2%Federal Government 197,800 -1,700 -0.9%Rental and Leasing Services 48,200 -1,600 -3.2%Miscellaneous Manufacturing 25,900 -1,300 -4.8%Printing & Related Manufacturing 26,600 -1,200 -4.3%Computer & Electronics Manufacture 94,500 -1,100 -1.2%Chemical Manufacturing 69,500 -800 -1.1%

$3,786

$2,391

GAINERS: Alamo LWDA Sectors (2009-11) EMP 2011Q2

ABS CHG

PCT CHG

Trend vs 2018

Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure: restaurants and hotels 119,475 6,003 5.3 AboveBusiness and Financial Services: Insurance, non-bank financial 139,052 4,656 3.5 AboveBiotechnology, Life Sciences & Medical: Hospitals, Physicians Offices 73,725 4,426 6.4 AboveCorporate HQ, Administrative & Government: federal govt. 88,927 3,682 4.3 AbovePersonal and Residential Services: home health and nursing care services 57,195 3,128 5.8 Equal Transportation Equipment: auto dealers, parts manufacturing, auto repair 31,910 2,817 9.7 AboveLegal, Protective & Human Support Services: individual family , legal & emergency services 28,136 1,735 6.6 AboveElectronics & Applied Computer Equipment: semi-conductors, commercial electronic & medical equipment wholesalers 11,949 1,069 9.8 Above

San Antonio New Hire ActivityHiring

(2010 4th)Earnings

All WorkersEarnings New Hires

All NAICS subsectors 55,321 $3,518 $2,223Food Services & Drinking Places 9,426 $1,494 $1,068Administrative & Support Services 5,804 $2,871 $1,971Ambulatory Health Care Services 5,200 $3,803 $2,470Professional, Scientific, Tech Services 2,864 $5,254 $3,774Specialty Trade Contractors 2,106 $3,507 $2,664Credit Intermediation Activities 1,407 $4,195 $3,048Nursing & Residential Care Facilities 1,640 $2,388 $2,126Social Assistance & Child care 1,596 $2,050 $1,458Hospitals 1,296 $4,511 $3,711Accommodation 1,206 $2,139 $1,643General Merchandise Stores 1,325 $2,093 $1,211Insurance Carriers & Related Activities 991 $6,434 $4,112

Job Churn: San Antonio Private Sector New Hires

Eagle Ford Shale: 24 county region

1. $1.3 billion in gross state product, $2.9 total output

2. $511 million in salaries (2010)

3. Supports 12,601 jobs4. $108 million in tax revenues5. 2,828 drilling permits issued

through 2011

Texas Job Posting Activity: The Conference Board HWOL

313,045

Texas Online Job Postings Last 90 Days January 2012Registered Nurses 26,820 Associate’s/Bachelor’s

Truck Drivers, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer 14,810

Moderate term OJT

Retail Salespersons 11,784 Short term OJT

Computer Systems Analysts 11,731 Bachelor’s degree

Supervisors, Retail Sales Workers 11,148 Related Work Experience

Customer Service Representatives 10,307 Moderate term OJT

Physical Therapists 9,445 Master’s degree

Web Developers 9,351 Associate’s degree

Computer Support Specialists 9,064 Associate’s degree

Accountants 7,862 Bachelor’s degree

Exec. Secretaries/Admin Assts. 7,558 Related Work Experience

Network Systems Administrators 7,244 Bachelor’s degree

Non-technical Sales Reps, Wh & Man 7,098 Related Work Experience

Occupational Therapists 6,468 Master’s degree

Supervisors, Food Prep Workers 6,167 Related Work Experience

San Antonio MSA Online Job Postings Last 90 Days Feb 2012

Occupation Postings CHG Preferred training

Registered Nurses 2,193 326 Associate's/Bachelor's

Truck Drivers, Tractor-Trailer 2,006 1,011 Short term OJT

Customer Service Representatives 1,533 129 Moderate term OJT

Retail Salespersons 1,410 228 Short term OJT

Computer Support Specialists 1,037 42 Associate’s degree

Supervisors, Retail Sales Workers 983 104 Related work experience

Network Systems Administrators 922 23 Bachelor’s degree

Supervisors, Food Prep Workers 873 159 Related work experience

Exec. Secretaries/Admin Assts. 826 11 Related work experience

Non-technical Sales Reps, W & M 788 99 Related work experience

Web Developers 747 120 Associate’s degree

Supervisors, Admin Support 732 69 Related work experience

Medical & Health Srvcs Managers 715 13 Bachelor’s degree plus

Physical Therapists 702 180 Master’s degree

Education Requirement 2011 WIT Job Applicants

HWOL 2011 Postings

Doctoral Degree 0.6% .8%

Professional Degree 0.3% 1.6%

Masters Degree 0.9% 3.6%

Bachelor’s + Work Experience 3.4% 7.8%

Bachelor’s Degree 8.5% 22.7%

Associate’s Degree 2.0% 10.0%

Post-secondary Vocational 4.0% 9.3%

Job related work experience 5.4% 9.2%

Long-term On The Job training 6.2% 4.4%

Medium-term On The Job training 22.4% 15.4%

Short-term On The Job training 46.3% 15.3%

Education Mismatch: Texas Unemployed vs. Job Postings

Highest Earning College Programs 2010 SummaryBachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings

Engineering 4,554 $51,131Health Professions & Related Clinical Sciences 7,644 $50,813Engineering Technologies/Technicians 951 $46,075Computer & Information Sciences 1,356 $44,408Business, Management & Marketing 21,153 $36,261Mathematics and Statistics 914 $33,296Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies 10,082 $31,888Physical Sciences 1,103 $30,828Liberal Arts & Sciences/Humanities 2,359 $30,074Teacher Education & Development /Special Ed 1,505 $29,594Agriculture & Agriculture Operations 1,804 $28,195Unknown or Undeclared 2,247 $27,812Public Administration & Social Service 1,174 $27,456Security & Protective Services 2,783 $27,039Social Sciences 6,227 $26,795

Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail ViewBachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings

Petroleum Engineering 271 $84,961Quality Control/Safety Technology 30 $61,113Chemical Engineering 405 $60,791Ocean Engineering 71 $59,411Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 4,745 $59,359Electrical & Electronic Engineering 111 $55,332Mechanical Engineering 1,224 $53,307Construction Engineering 54 $50,594Health Diagnostic & Treatment Professions 375 $49,202Engineering Science 29 $48,601Computer Systems Networking/Telecomm 26 $48,411Computer Engineering, General 189 $47,815Engineering, General 41 $47,751Computer Systems Analysis 114 $47,747Information Technology Admin & Mgmt 64 $47,524

Lowest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail ViewBachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings

Pastoral Counseling & Specialized Ministries 60 $15,205Germanic Languages & Literature 46 $17,444Film/Video and Photographic Arts 142 $17,619Dramatic/Theatre Arts & Stagecraft 529 $18,304Classical Languages, Literatures & Linguistics 35 $18,342English Composition 44 $19,903Religious Education 56 $20,122Ecology, Evolution and Population Biology 87 $20,156Anthropology 460 $20,310Radio, Television & Digital Communication 983 $20,413Health/Medical Preparatory Programs 93 $20,547Parks & Recreation Facilities Management 139 $20,558Bible/Biblical Studies 55 $20,860Zoology/Animal Biology 102 $21,372Fine and Studio Art 1,347 $21,464

Highest Earning Associate’s Degree Programs 2010Associate’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings

Fire Protection 157 $68,275Nuclear Radiologic Technology 33 $63,908Electrical & Power Transmission Installers 41 $55,835Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 5,203 $53,648Mining and Petroleum Technology 24 $50,241Physical Science Technology 457 $47,881Electromechanical /Instrumentation Technology 397 $46,151Quality Control & Safety Technology 133 $44,685Chemistry 56 $44,599Industrial Production Technology 97 $44,138Construction Engineering Technology 45 $41,789Mechanical Engineering Related Technology 29 $41,622Precision Metal Working 138 $39,817Electrical/Electronics Maintenance Technology 47 $37,500Dental Support Services & Allied Professions 352 $37,371

Structural Mismatch: 2010 Graduates Grads EarningsMulti-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other 9,536 $32,132Business Administration, Mgmt & Operations 6,056 $40,473Psychology, General 5,169 $22,613Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 4,745 $59,359Biology, General 4,517 $21,737Health and Physical Education/Fitness 3,457 $23,454Finance & Financial Mgmt Services 3,269 $37,160Accounting & Related Services 3,083 $33,583Marketing 2,884 $31,693Criminal Justice and Corrections 2,783 $27,039English Language and Literature, General 2,453 $23,124Liberal Arts, General Studies & Humanities 2,359 $30,074History, General 2,245 $24,016Political Science & Government 2,208 $25,037Public Relations & Advertising 1,772 $27,579

Trends in U.S. Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded

“In China today, Bill Gates is Britney Spears. In America

today, Britney Spears is Britney Spears. And that is

our problem.”

Jerry Yang, Co-Founder of Yahoo!

Emerging Markets in a Global Economy:Percent of 2000 & 2007 Revenue Outside U.S.

YUM Brands 34.5% (50.1%)Ford 30.4% (53.1%)Boeing 34.3% (40.8%)Intel 58.8% (84.3%)Coca Cola 61.0% (73.8%)Corning (70.7%)Emerson Electric 40% (51.6%)Accenture (60.5%)Microsoft (38.7%)

IBM 57.9% (57.9%)Schlumberger (84.9%)JNJ 38.2% (47.1%)John Deere 25.1% (34.6%)Colgate 69.4% (80.3%)Nike 50.3% (62.6%)Campbell Soup (31.0%)Molson Coors (55.4%)3M Corporation (61.4)

Short-term Forecasted Job Growth by Region

LWDA 2010 2011 2012 AVG 2009-12

Lower Rio Grande/Brownsville 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.7%Travis County/Austin 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.4%South Texas/McAllen 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2%Alamo/San Antonio 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.1%Rural Capital/Round Rock 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.1%Permian /Midland-Odessa 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.9%Central Texas/ Killeen-Temple 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.7%Upper Rio Grande/ El Paso 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7%Brazos Valley/ Bryan 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.5%Heart of Texas/ Waco 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.4%North Central Texas/Plano 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.3%East Texas / Tyler 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3%

Employer Hiring Progression: Shifting Business Practices

• Work existing full-time workers more hours• Move part-timers to full-time workers• Employ temporary or leased workers• Use contract workers for fixed periods• Reconsider work/hiring location based on potential

growth markets & cost structure• Outsource all non-core business functions• Consider strategic partnerships to increase sales, limit

labor liability• Take advantage of H1B and L1 visas• Add full-time domestic employees (FTE)

Percent Job Losses in Recessions 1990-2007

Optimistic

Baseline

Pessimistic

Regional employers say they want…1. Good communications skills: Can you….. Explain what you’re doing (to co-worker or customer)? Explain what you need (from a co-worker or customer)? Ability to listen to instructions?

2. Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence of events, can you determine what will probably happen next)

3. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half of all job openings)

4. Can-do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who are “engaged” in their work)

5. Can you work with people who are of a different age, race, gender and education level than you?

There is much more story to tell, but this version is over

Thank you!richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us

• Corporations are holding $ 1.6 trillion in cash• Corporate investments low; excess capacity,

emerging markets better bet, spending on technology – not people

• 2nd inventory replacement cycle nearly over, consumer still hasn’t taken up the slack

• Interest rates are low, MNC hoarding borrowed $$$, but overall borrowing down

• General lack of confidence: regulatory uncertainty, low consumer confidence

Why isn’t it Better? A Different Recession