The Changing Face of the Polish-Born Population in the UK*

 Stephen Drinkwater

John Eade Michal Garapich

CRONEMUniversity of Surrey

Conference on Polish MigrationPolish Embassy, London

17th May 2006

*Funding from the ESRC is gratefully acknowledged

• Background • Data sources used to track demographic change

– Census of the Population

– Labour Force Survey

– Worker Registration Scheme

• Possible implications of (recent) migration flows

Outline

• Sword (1996) and Janowski (2006) discuss Polish migration to the UK during the 20th Century

• A number of distinct phases can be identified:– During WWII and immediately afterwards => migration of Polish soldiers (mainly male)– Fairly small inflows 1950-1990 => mainly females (who came to join or marry Polish men in the UK) but also political refugees in the 1960s and 1980s– Increased flows in the 1990s after the fall of Communism (but also some return migration) and in the early 2000s because of policy changes (e.g. self-employed) and through illegal means – Huge influx following EU enlargement in May 2004

• These trends can be seen in various data sources e.g. the Census, Labour Force Survey and Workers’ Registration Scheme

Background

• Official decennial register of all UK residents shows a steady decline of the Polish-born up to 2001

Population Census

Polish-Born Population in the UK: 1951-2001

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Sources: Sword (1996), Census of Population

• Changes in how Census returns are published also enables a more detailed analysis of the characteristics of the UK’s Polish-born population (pre-enlargement)

Release of aggregate data on age categories in 2001 for small spatial areas (LA level) by sex

– age data by country of birth was also available in 1971

Release of Census microdata - the Samples of Anonymised Records (SARs/CAMs) - which contains information on virtually all questions asked in the Census for a sample of the population– 2% in 1991 and 3% in 2001

• Main problem with Census data is under-enumeration (of undocumented/illegal migrants)

Census (Continued)

Age and Gender

Source: Census of Population

Total % Male % Female % >59/64 % Males >64 % Females >59

London 22,224 39.06 60.94 35.41 41.06 31.79

Rest of England 34,455 50.46 49.54 69.27 80.61 57.72

Scotland 2,505 62.91 37.09 69.14 81.73 47.79

Wales 1,427 60.90 39.10 78.28 89.07 61.47

Northern Ireland 102 50.00 50.00 24.51 31.37 17.65

United Kingdom 60,713 47.04 52.96 57.01 68.82 46.51

• The 2001 Census indicated an ageing population, especially amongst Polish males in the UK

Age and Gender Composition of the UK's Polish Born Population: 2001

More detailed analysis of age • Can use the SARs to rank country of origin by age

=> Polish migrants were by far the oldest in 1991

Mean age of migrants in GB, selected countries: 1991

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Age (Continued)

• Not much change 1991-2001, the median age is even slightly higher But some variation across the UK => youngest live in London (has attracted more recent migrants)

Notes: Median values in parentheses. 1991 data excludes Northern Ireland.

Sources: 1991 SARs and 2001 CAMs

Average Age of the UK's Polish-Born Population: 1991 and 2001

Male Female Total Male Female Total London 61 (65) 56 (61) 58 (66) 52 (50) 46 (48) 48 (50)East/South East 67 (69) 58 (61) 63 (67) 65 (75) 55 (54) 59 (66)Rest of UK 67 (68) 61 (64) 65 (67) 72 (76) 60 (66) 67 (74)UK 66 (68) 59 (63) 63 (66) 65 (75) 54 (55) 59 (68)

1991 2001

Other demographic & labour market characteristics

• Not great changes either between 1991 and 2001 – similar for migrants from other A8 countries

Demographic characteristics of Poles and other A8 migrants in the UK: 1991 and 2001

Notes: 1991 data excludes Northern Ireland. Other A8 in 1991 also includes Albania, Romania and other Yugoslavia and excludes the Baltic entrants.

Sources: 1991 SARs and 2001 CAMs

1991 2001 1991 2001All Aged 16 and over% Married 64.1 57.4 62.7 56.6% Widowed 16.8 15.3 12.6 6.4% Economically Active 26.6 29.1 46.6 45.1Working Age OnlyUnemployment Rate 9.9 7.9 12.6 7.0Self-employment Rate 21.6 20.3 20.9 15.3% Unskilled/Partly skilled 25.5 14.6 21.2 28.9% Professional/Managerial 30.4 43.8 42.4 39.8

Poles Other A8

Workers’ Registration Scheme (WRS)

• A (government) register of individuals from A8 countries working in the UK who arrived after May 2004 – but also includes some who came earlier

• Useful since it contains some of the characteristics of the registrants

– but there are methodological problems with the data such as individuals registering on multiple occasions (after changing jobs) or not at all

– also the published data doesn’t contain information for Poles specifically (apart from industrial sector)

• It suggests that over 300,000 A8 migrants entered the UK between May 2004 and December 2005 – almost 60% of whom were Poles

Characteristics of workers in the WRS, May 2004-December 2005

• Age and Gender: Mostly male (57%) and young (44% aged 18-24; 39% aged 25-34)

• Region: Much less likely than previous cohorts to reside in London (only 15%; compared to 16% in Anglia, 12% in Midlands, 10% in Central etc)

• Industrial sector: 32% (33%) in admin., bus. & mgmt, 22% (23%) in hospitality & catering, 12% (11%) in agriculture & 8% (8%) in manufacturing

Note: Emboldened figures in parentheses are for Poles only

Labour Force Survey (LFS)

• Quarterly survey of around 60,000 UK households

Much smaller sample than the SARs => less precise, especially for subgroups and at the regional/sub-regional level

But provides much more recent information => can see how the socio-economic characteristics of the Polish-born have changed following enlargement

Also includes year of arrival in the UK and a wider range of labour market variables e.g. earnings

Time of arrival and average age of Polish migrants living in the UK: 2002-3

Source: LFS

Male Female AllPre 1946 24.32 1.61 13.971946-9 38.51 26.61 33.091950s 2.70 2.42 2.571960s 3.38 8.06 5.511970s 0.68 7.26 3.681980s 6.08 15.32 10.291990s 9.46 25.00 16.542000-3 14.86 13.71 14.34Mean age 63 51 58Median age 76 48 67

Time of arrival and average age of Polish migrants living in the UK: 2004-5

Male Female AllPre 1946 6.48 3.64 5.051946-9 12.04 9.09 10.551950s 1.39 2.27 1.831960s 0.93 4.55 2.751970s 2.31 4.55 3.441980s 3.24 6.82 5.051990s 6.48 13.18 9.862000-3 23.69 24.45 24.082004-5 44.44 30.45 37.39Mean age 40 39 39Median age 31 30 30

Source: LFS

Demographic & labour market characteristics of Polish and other A8 migrants in the UK: 2002-5

Source: LFS

• Figures for pre-2000 migrants are similar to the 2001 CAMs but quite different from those arriving afterwards (who are generally very alike those from other A8 countries)

– but based on small samples

Pre 2000 2000-3 2004-5 Pre 2000 2000-3 2004-5All Aged 16 and over% Married 57.1 34.7 35.0 60.5 36.4 33.0% Economically Active 33.7 66.0 80.4 36.7 65.7 62.5Working Age OnlyUnemployment Rate 0.8 6.3 12.2 11.0 6.6 18.6Self-employment Rate 22.9 33.7 0.9 21.3 15.5 1.8% Unskilled/Partly skilled 31.2 50.0 74.4 34.3 67.0 79.7% Professional/Managerial 29.7 6.1 8.8 28.6 8.8 7.8Average hourly earnings £10.19 £6.15 £5.88 £10.66 £6.21 £5.52

Poles arriving: Other A8 migrants arriving:

Possible economic and social implications

• Brain drain => migration of young and more qualified individuals might have a detrimental impact on the Polish economy

– but the recent economics literature suggests that this need not necessarily be the case (see Commander et al., 2004 for a summary)

• Remittances => can be very beneficial to sending countries (if used productively)

– Caselli and Tenreyro (2005) argue that massive investment is needed to restructure the Polish economy

• Effects on identity/ethnicity and perceptions of class => I’ll leave this to Michal and John