The challenge of maintaining status quo in the South China Sea

Nguyen Thi Lan Anh

China’s behaviour in the SCS• 29/5 & 31/5/2011: Chinese boats Fei Sheng No. 16 and Vessel No.

B12549 attempted to approach the rear deck of the Viking II seismic survey ship and interfere with its operations.

• 1/6/2011: Chinese military vessels threatened to use their guns against a Vietnamese fishing boat operating in waters near the Spratly archipelago.

• 9/6/2011: Chinese fishing boat No. 62226 equipped with a cable cutting device snared the cable of the Viking II operating in survey Block 136‐03 in the vicinity of Vanguard Bank (Tu Chinh).

• 6/7/2011: Armed Chinese naval troops beat the skipper of a Vietnamese fishing boat, threatened the crew, and then forced the boat to leave contested waters near the Paracel Islands.

200920102011

2012

China Introduced New Vertical

MAP

From U shape to emerging J shape line

Of course, the Oil rig was not about Oil

Johnson South Reef Construction

2010

2020

2050

• Coastal defense

• Near sea

defense

• Blue water navy

China Major Naval Power Dreams

Sri Lanka

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Myanmar

“String of Pearls”

Anti-Piracy

Chinese “9 Exits” toward Outer Sea

“Int’l Express News” Apr 2010

2nd Island Line

1st Island Line

Diego Garcia

Guam

Hawaii

①

②

③

④⑤

⑥

⑦

⑧

⑨

China securing “exits” to the Oceans

China securing “exits” to the Oceans

A2/AD

From U-shape to J-shape

U-Shape

TerritoryHistorical rights

Resources

J-shape

TerritoryHistorical rights

Resources

Security zoneDominance

China’s DREAM

China’s Domestic Politics• First generation of leader

not “hand picked” by Dang Xiao Ping

• Opening lots of fronts• Power base: PLA and the

mass (nationalist)

PLA more powerful, control foreign policy

Solving the South China Sea vicious cycle:

Where do I begin?

Solving the South China Sea vicious cycle:

Where do I begin?Self

RestraintStatus quo

UNCLOSClarify claims

Delimit boundaries

Joint Development

s

Incidents Management

TransparencyMonitoring

Trust building

ManageDomestic Politics

The role of public

opinion and rules of the

road

Thank you !