THE CHALLENGE OF IMPROVING KNOWLEDGE ABOUT EARTHQUAKES · THE CHALLENGE OF IMPROVING KNOWLEDGE ABOUT EARTHQUAKES 1st Symposium November 28th, 2017 ... France Post-doc. 16 ... HISTORY

WORK PACKAGE 2 [WP2]

THE CHALLENGE OF IMPROVING

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

EARTHQUAKES

1st Symposium

November 28th, 2017

Jessie MAYOR, EDFEmmanuelle NAYMAN, EDF

OUTLINE

1. Tasks & Objectivesa. Motivations & Methodsb. Overviewc. Interactions with other Work Packages

Focus on…

2. Data Mining actions

3. Archeo Seismicity actions

4. Quantification of Magnitude & Depth Estimation actions

5. Conclusions & Outlooks

1st symposium- November 28th, 2017 2

Motivation 1: input for seismotectonic zonation – WP1

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SEISMOTECTONIC ZONATION IN DETERMINISTIC & PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES

Simulated GR law

Averaged GR law

Determination of Recurrence ModelsRegionalization

Motivation 2: input for estimation of max. magnitude – WP5

first symposium - November 28th, 2017 4

MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE IN DETERMINISTIC & PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES

PSHA in Europe (SHARE project)

Zentner (2017) – WP5

Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)Data = 5.0 ≤ 𝑀𝑤 ≤ 7.0Mmax = 7.002

Motivation 3: input for GMPE & prediction of IDP – WP3

1st symposium - November 28th, 2017 5

𝑙𝑜𝑔10 𝑆𝐴 𝑓 = 𝑐1 +𝜔

2𝑐𝑄𝑅 + 𝑆𝑖𝑡𝑒 + 𝑐3𝑀𝑤 + 𝑐4𝑀𝑤

2

+ (c5+c6Mw)f2 + c9 + c10Mw f0

Δ𝐼 = 𝐼0 𝑀𝑤 , ℎ − 𝐼

= 𝑐1𝑅 + 𝑐2 + 𝑐3𝐼0 𝑀𝑤 , ℎ log10(𝑅 + 1)

Slaughterville, OK (SA, 1Hz)

GMPE (i.e: Atkinson & Boore, 2006)

Macroseismic attenuation model(i.e: Arroucau et al., 2006)

over-prediction

under-

prediction

Pasyanos, 2014

Objectives & Tasks

6

MAIN OBJECTIVE

Reduce uncertainties of the 3-D location and the size (M) of the earthquake

To achieve this goal:

• Acquire new data,

• Improve data quality,

• Develop methodologies

AVAILABLE DATA

Historical and Instrumental

METHOD

• Data-Mining

• Archeoseismicity

• Numerical approach

Manchuel et al., (2017)

Catalog FCAT-17: product of SIGMA1

WP 2: Improve the knowledge of seismic sources

TASKS & OBJECTIVES

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WP2 Overview

91st symposium - November 28th, 2017

FOCUS ON DATAMINING ACTIONS

EXPECTED LIVRABLES

Guidelines & new methodology

Action applied to SisFrance historical database

10

DISPERSED

CENTRALIZED

WEB CRAWLER

TEXT MINING

OCROptical Character Recognition

EXTRACTED

STRUCTURED

NEW DATABASEUNDER EXPERT VALIDATION

ENRICH HISTORICAL SEISMOLOGICAL DATABASE

DATA IN

DATA OUT

11

DISPERSED

CENTRALIZED

DATA IN

DATA OUT

WEB CRAWLER

TEXT MINING


EXTRACTED

STRUCTURED



12

DISPERSED

CENTRALIZED

WEB CRAWLER

TEXT MINING


EXTRACTED

STRUCTURED



DATA IN

DATA OUT

13

DISPERSED

CENTRALIZED

WEB CRAWLER

TEXT MINING


EXTRACTED

STRUCTURED



DATA IN

DATA OUT


FOCUS ON ARCHEO-SEISMICITY ACTIONS

EXPECTED LIVRABLES

Guidelines & new methodology

Action applied to specific earthquake in Bas-Dauphine region, France

Post-doc

16

EARTHQUAKE DESTRUCTION RECONSTRUCTIONVULNERABILITY RISK

HISTORY

Testimonies on damages &

Building Reconstruction

MACROSEISMIC ANALYSIS

IMPACTS & INTENSITY

Earthquake parameters

assessment

HISTORICO-SOCIO-CULTURAL DATA

Evolution of restoration practices after

seismic damages

STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING

Analysis of the behavior ofthe buildings

Assessment of the seismicvulnerability of the structure

Reading and analysishistorical building

Structural analysis of historical building under seismic load

Modelling

FOCUS ON ARCHEO-SEISMICITY ACTIONS

COMPUTING

Numerical modelling Ambiant noise analysis (free

field and buildings) Photogrammetric model

ARCHAEOLOGY & GEOLOGY

Analysis & identification of the buildingphases and building materials

Restoration practices Reconstitution of the construction process

From RECAP project

A pluridisciplinary approach


FOCUS ON QUANTIFICATION OF M & H ESTIMATIONS

EXPECTED LIVRABLES

PhD thesis

Action applied to Pyrenees data



CONTEXT: Low-to-Moderate seismic region(i.e: Northern Europe)

Mw from SIHEX project (France)• SIGMA-1 : development of a methodology « Mw

from crustal coda waves » = analog signal(Denieul et al., 2015)

• Large period of observations ++• Qualitative method --

Mw from classical approach• Based on the low frequency radiated

energyimpossible for low event• Empirical & local method (Mw = Mw ± 1)

Cara et al., 2015



20

2. INVERSION through

MONTE CARLO method

DATA

1. COMPUTATION OF FAST

GREEN’S FUNCTION OF RTE

Attenuation properties

SIGNAL PROCESSING

SIMULATION

EXTRACTION OF THE SOURCEMAP of Mw & comparison

with SIHEX map

CONCLUSIONS & OUTLOOKS


WP2: KEEP IN MIND • WP2 = reduce uncertainties in 3-D

location and size (M) of the earthquake

• WP2 = diversified approaches (datamining, archeoseismicity, numerical method)

• WP2 = macroseismic & instrumental data

OUTLOOK

• Dec. 2017: toward FCAT-21 brainstorming session

• 2018: datamining process processing chain

• 2018: internship on macroseismic database to detectsite effect

THANK YOU, QUESTIONS?


2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

June Nov. June Nov. June Nov. June Nov. June Nov.

DATA MINING

ARCHEOSEISMICITY

SITE EFFECTS IN HISTORICAL DATABASE

M & H OF HISTORICAL DATABASE

CZECH CATALOGUE

3D CRUST VELOCITY MODEL

QUANTIFICATION OF M & H

THANK YOU

Appendix


TASKS & OBJECTIVES


Interactions with other Work Packages

Documents

THE CHALLENGE OF IMPROVING KNOWLEDGE ABOUT EARTHQUAKES · THE CHALLENGE OF IMPROVING KNOWLEDGE ABOUT EARTHQUAKES 1st Symposium November 28th, 2017 ... France Post-doc. 16 ... HISTORY