The Challenge of Delegitimacy to Israel’s National Security

10th Annual Herzliya Conference, February 2010

Structure of Presentation

Attack on Israel’s Political-Economic Model

Strategic Existential Implications of Attack

Response: Conceptual Framework

The Political Threat: The Resistance Network

Military Superiority

Ahmadinejad: “Israel is on a crash course… just like

the Soviet Union disappeared.” (12/2/06)

Nasrallah: “We do not need tanks and planes… [Israel] is weaker than a spider web.” (7/31/06)

?Abu Mussa Marzouk:

“failure of the political process will

bring about the destruction of Israel

(5/15/07)

Main Working Assumptions

Main Arena: Military-Security

Existential Threat: Physical

IDF Protects the Nation

Overstretch

Delegitimacy

Asymmetry

From Logic of Destruction to

Logic of Implosion

From Logic of Implosion to Strategy of Implosion

Aim: Sabotage Two-State Solution

Delegitmacy: From Kibbutz to Kibbush

The Left: From Kibbutz to Kibbush (Occupation)

Using human rights to make pro-Pal trendy

‘Branding’ demonization: Israel = Apartheid

Blurring line between criticism & delegitimacy

Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions

Anti-Zionist Israelis /Jews

Aim: Promote One Man, One Vote

London

Madrid Bay Area

TorontoNetworked: Generated from Hubs

European Muslims: From ambivalence to radicalization

Mid-Term Report & Feedback Loop

Undermine Two-State Solution Promote One

State Narrative

Logic of Implosion Fundamental Delegitimacy

Since WWII, more states have collapsed politically than militarily

Internationalization of the IL Arabs issue

Exercising universal jurisdiction against

Israel

Less room to maneuver vs. Resistance Network

Increasing equivalence between IL & Axis of

Evil

Danger: Implosion

Mid -Term Report

Political threat is strategic

Synchronized Victory

Israel suffers from strategic inferiority

New dynamic; new threat

Victory won on battlefield

Relevancy Gap

Diplomatic arena not critical to National

Security

IDF military and tech superiority enough

Political attacks signify nothing new

Primarily problem of Hasbara

Ideology, not arguments

Resolving IL-Pal conflict solves problem

Delegitimacy doesn’t hinge on IL-Pal

Potential Existential Political-Security

Threat

Networked Response to Networked Threat

Branding Israel

Reorganizing MFA

Synchronized Victories

The Response: Guiding Principles

Existential Threat: Plan Accordingly

Focusing on Hubs

Attacking Catalysts

Engaging NGOs

Difference b/w Soft & Hard Critics

Relations Based Diplomacy

Foreign Policy Est.: From Wishes to Budget

Intelligence agencies focus on Hubs

PM designates body that ‘owns’ issue

Inter-agency co-op on critical FP issues