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THE CENTER FOR GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH

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rise in atmospheric carbon diox-

ide concentrations; creation' of

an ozone hole over Antarctica;

increasing greenhouse gases

trapping ever more efficiently the sun's

radiant heat. We all have heard of these

environmental changes, as well as dire

predictions about their probable results:

more cataracts and skin cancer, melting ice

caps, rising oceans and decreasing fresh

water, agricultural systems.collapsing in the swelteringheat.

Yet taking these predic-tions seriously is neither easynor pleasant. Everythingwithin us tempts us toproclaim the earth's systemsprotective and nurturing for

suggestion, especially giventhe present political climate.

Yet that is just what acareful look at the earth'sliving systems seems to betelling us to do. Theirreactions to invisible environ-mental alterations aredifficult to detect and even

Songs of the Miner's Canarythe indefinite future. Thethought that our own bodiesand the earth's livingcommunities can withstandthe onslaught of rapidhuman-generated changewithout being scathedcomforts us and lulls us intocomplacency. If we have noproof that crop yields willdecline in the Midwest, orthat our scantily-cladyoungsters will suffer byplaying outside in thesummer's sun, it's mucheasier to continue to act inthe traditional manner: toescape the heat by drivingthe kids to the swimmingpool and returning to our air-conditioned homes to relax(all the while producinggreenhouse gases, usingozone-depleting CFCs, andrisking exposing our kids toUV radiation in the process).Advocating long-termsustainability rather thanshort-term consumption orprofit simply isn't a popular

more arduous to prove. Butrecent research confirms thatthe earth's complex ecosys-tems are indeed serving asour miner's canaries. Al-though natural ecosystemsare exceedingly complex, andalthough many of theirprocesses remain cryptic, theyare exhibiting behaviors thatdemonstrate how humanactions are affecting life onearth in a myriad of subtleways. Consider as examplesthe three following discus- •sions, each of which linksongoing research by CGRERmembers to a receptlydiscovered, significantalteration of the earth'snatural ecosystems.

# 1. Greenhouse Gas Buildup andAlpine Plant Migration

Greenhouse gases, whichtrap and hold the sun'sradiant heat, playa vital rolein maintaining the earth'ssurface temperature at livablelevels. However since the

Industrial Revolutiongreenhouse gases have beenpoured ever more rapidly intothe atmosphere, upsettingthe ages-old balance betweengas levels and the amount ofradiant heat retained. Theterm global warming summa-rizes the fears of what mightresult: the sun's radiant heat,unable to escape the atmo-sphere, will cling to theearth's surface and eventuallyfry us all.

Gene Takle, a CGRERmember and ISU atmosphericscientist, has been investigat-ing fluctuations both 'inIowa's mean temperaturesand in climatic fluctuations.He is analyzing climatic datacollected since 1900 in anattempt to determinewhether significant tempera-ture changes have alreadyoccurred in the Corn Belt.By feeding these data andexpected alterations inatmospheric composition intohis computer models, he alsocan spin out hypotheticalmidwestern climates offuture years.

But even if temperatureswarm a bit, what will thismean in terms of the earth'snatural systems? While thehuman reaction might be toturn' up the air conditioning,native species - plants aswell as animals - would beforced to migrate to coolerclimes. George Malanson, ageographer at The Universityof Iowa, is examining thepotential future migration ofmidwestern trees by con-structing computer simula-

I tions based on pollen data

from the past 12,000 years.These data provide past ratesof migration, whic~ are thenused to predict futuremovements across ourmodern fragmented land-scape in hypothetical cli-mates. He also is studyingthe response of treelinevegetation in the Rockies toclimatic and geomorphicvariables in an attempt tounderstand future upslopemovement potentially'stimulated by globalwarming.

Research published thispast June provided the firstevidence that such plantmigrations are not justtheoretical: they are alreadyoccurring among some of theearth's most sensitivepredictors, the-tiny tundraplants of the uppermost Alps.Comparisons of modern andearly 1900s records revealedthat certain plants arecurrently migrating upslopefrom 3 to 12 feet a dec~de.This movement correspondswith a warming of about1.5" F, and demonstrates thateven moderately warmertemperatures here are alreadyplaying a significant ecologi-cal role - potentiallypushing, the species inquestion upslope and offthe mountain tops intoextinction.

#2. Carbon Dioxide Enrichmentand Tropical Forest Cycling

While atmospheric CO2

concentrations remainedbelow 300 ppm from ancienttimes until the IndustrialRevo!ution, the burning offossil fuels and cutting of theearth's forests have caused"CO2 to increase at an acceler-ating rate ever since. How-ever not all CO2 producedfeeds directly into atmo-

Antarctic alone hole as measured by the TOMS instrument on the Nimbus" 7 Satellite.The OIone hole forms each spring (in the southern hemisphere) as the result ofheterogeneous reactions involving CFCs.

spheric increases. Some isabsorbed by the oceans. Someis converted by photosynthe-sizing plants into more"complex carbon-basedmolecules and then stored bythe plant tissues. Soilmicroorganisms, like humansand all other animals,produce CO2 during respira-tion. Plants also respire whenthei are not photosynthesiz-ing. And all living tissuesr~lease CO2 when theydecompose. To furtherconfuse the pi-crure, CO2 useand release is affected bytemperature and chemicalcomposition (for example ofthe ocean), and by theconcentration of CO2 itself.

These complex interac-tions all feed into predictionsof future atmospheric CO2

levels. CGRER botanistJames Raich, along withChristopher Potter, have been

attempting to better under-stand the CO2 - soilemission link of the puzzle.Soil emissions vary signifi-cantly with seasonal moisturepatterns, temperature, andland use patterns. Theirmodel is the first to incorpo-rate these important variablesinto calculations of soil CO2

emissions on the global scale,and thus allow incorporationof soil CO2 flux into moreinclusive CO2 models.

To derive a "global carbonbudget," all of the complexCO2 interactions need to beaccurately fed into a com-puter model. CGRERmembers O-Yul Kwon andJerry Schnoor have justpublished a model thatintegrates the oceanic,atmospheric, and soilinteractions into a singlemodel for the first time.Their model will aid personswho are analyzing atmo-spheric CO2 changes andattempting to determine

their probable results, and itwill point out future researchneeds. Because of this newmodel's completeness, it alsois.being considered by theIntergovernmental Panel onClimate Change as a tool forguiding governmentalrestrictions on CO2 emissionsin the future.

But are all these efforts tomodel CO2 changes worththe effort? True, CO2 is themost abundant greenhousegas, but global warmingconcerns aside, how dochanges in CO2 concentra-tions directly affect life onearth? Raising the levels ofCO2 in the laboratory hasbeen shown to stimulate thegrowth of some plants, andrecent research demonstratesthat this growth enhance-ment may already pe goingon in nature. Tropical forestswhich are otherwise intact aredisplaying substantiallyhigher rates of turnover -that is; higher death rates and

faster recruitment of new,individuals. Acceleratingforest turnover rates, whichhave been detected aroundthe world over the last 25years, coincide with thebuildup of atmospheric CO2

over the same time period,and that CO2 buildup isthought to be the causativefactor. Speedi~g up thetropical forest turnover rate issignificant: through selectingagainst slow-growing trees, itcould decr~ase thebi~diversity of these large,complex forests. Also, sincethe faster growers have lessdense wood, the forests' CO2

storage capability coulddecrease - which in turnwould increase atmosphericCO2 concentrations evenmore.

#3. Ozone Depletion andAmphibian Reproduction

Depletion of stratosphericozone over Antarctica wasfirst noted in the early 1980s.

This decline was traced toCFCs, chemical compoundswidely used in refrigeratingsystems, insulation, andelsewhere. The decline of.o~oneraised alarm because ofozone's importance as theprimary filter for UVradiatiQn from the sun.Without such a filter, theincreased UV radiation at theearth's surface threatens toplay havoc with exposedorganisms. Humans, forexample, could expect morecataracts, more skin cancer,and a depression of the skin'simmune system. Effects onother animals could besimilar or more severe,especially among species withthe greatest exposure: those .found at high altitudes, thosewith the thinnest and mostvulnerable skin" and the like.Plant growth and conse-quently agricultural produc-tivity also is negativelyaffected by increased UVradiation.

Tropical forests around the world are demonstrating a significantly accelerated turnover rate, which is thought to be caused by growthenhancement from climbing atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Ozone declines now havebeen documented around theglobe, and researchers areattempting to determine theextent of depletion in variouslocations. The accuracy oftheir measurements is criticalto this effort. CGRERastronomers Steve Spanglerand Jack Fix are developing atechnique to use radiotelescopes to improve thevertical resolution of ozonemeasurements. By examiningabsorption as well as emissionlines from ozone, they expectto fine tune our knowledge ofthe altitude profile of ozonedistribution and better tracechanging ozone abundance inthe future.

A significant ozonedepletion trend of a fractionof a percent annually alreadyhas been recorded for Iowa, aswell as for much of thenorthern hemisphere.CGRER members KevinCrist and Greg Carmichaelhave been using satellite andground-based measurementsto evaluate the ground-levelchanges in UV radiationresulting from this ozonedecline. Their computersimulations show that ruralIowa is indeed experiencingincreasing amounts of UVradiation. Persons need fearexposure particularly in thesummer during the middle ofthe day, when the sun isdirectly overhead.

Beth Jurkiewicz, agraduate student workingwith CGRER member GarryBuettner, has demonstratedhow increased UV radiationmight affect human health.Using a mouse model, sheshowed that UV radiationhitting skin stimulates the

The Grindelwald Glacier, a valley glacier in Switzerland's Alps, is melting at the speedof 2 cm. per year - an unprecedented rate in the last few thousand years. Glaciersworldwide are now melting due to the warm global climate.

. formation of free radicals,reactive chemical species that

• are known to lead tophotoaging and skin cancer.

Researchers have demon-strated that other detrimentalresponses to UV radiation arealready occurring amongamphibians. The severedecline of many frog and toadpopulations has alarmedherpetologists since 1990,when this drop was discov-ered to be occurring around

the world. Several causes ofthe decrease have beensuggested, such as acidifica-tion of waters where they laytheir eggs and pollution ofthese waters. Researchpublished in March showedthat the decline, at least forhigh-altitude species that laytheir eggs in the open, islikely caused by increases inUV-B radiation. Thisradiation alters the structureof the frogs' genetic code,preventing it from carryingout its tasks of proteinproduction and self-replica-tion during cell division. As aresult, the sensitive gelati-

nous eggs of these amphib-ians do not hatch successfully,and the pop,ulations arecascading downward. Iowa'samphibian expert, ProfessorJim Christiansen, hashypothesized that thisprocess might explain therecent disappearance of thepreviously-abundant cricketfrog in the northern tier ofIowa counties.

At times, the significanceof individual bits of CGRERresearch may be viewed asinconsequential. We mightwonder if a more accurateunderstanding of soil CO2

emissions really matters. Orwhether a few more freeradicals in our skin will domuch to us, or if programs topredict plant migrations areworth the cost. We might belulled into skepticismconcerning the worth of frogsongs in the summer, ordoubt the crashing slump ofa tropical tree if no one isthere to hear it.

But once these researchbits are tied to'the biggerpicture, their significancelooms overhead. For whatother species are exposed to,so are we. The frogs andtundra plants that are nowreacting to environmental-changes probably differ fromus humans in quantity ofdose rather than quality ofresponse. They are simplyextremely sensitive detectorsof atmospheric distortions.Heeding their canary songsnow will bode us well in thefuture.

.And even if we humanswere never to react to certainenvironmental changes, we

will be affected by theirperturbations. For each ofnature's seemingly smallreactions has the potential ofcascading in ways that maynever have been expected. Asan example, consider theongoing decline of migrantsongbirds in temperateforests. Biologists had warnedthat populations of insects

-eaten by those birds couldexplode. But few expectedthe results of recent research,which demonstrated that- adecrease in bird numbers alsostresses forest productivity.Trees, in particular whiteoaks (which abundantly graceour Iowa woodlands), wereshown to have twice as muchinsect damage to foliagewhen unprotected bysongbirds, and they producedsignificantly fewer leaves in

subsequent years. Thus adecline in songbird popula-tions may assault the generalhealth and integrity of oureastern forests and thestrength of forest-basedeconomies.

The need is greater thanever to collect the pieces ofinformation that, when addedtogether, create a completepicture of how we arechanging our world. To bringresearchers together incenters such as CGRER,where they can tie their ideasto those of others in relateddisciplines, linking cause toeffect, and hoping thatprocesses of change mightalso be discovered. To tie theatmospheric changes beingmeasured by physicals~ientists and engineers tothe rebounds of life on earthat all levels. These linkages ofresearch and researchersendow CGRER with mission.,and point its direction. ".

ReferencesBlaustein, A.R., P.D. Hoffman,

~.G. Hokit et ai, 1994. UV Repairand Resisrance to Solar UV-B inAmphibian Eggs: A Link roPopular ion Declines? Proceedings ofthe National Academy of Science,91:1791-1795.

Chrisriansen, Dr. James, DrakeUniversity, pers. comm.

Crist, K., G.R. Carmichael, andK. John, 1994. UV-B Exposure andAtmospheric Ozone: Evaluation ofRadiative Flux to Changes inAmbient Ozone. Journal ofHazardous Materials 37:527-528.

Grabber, G., M. Gottfried, andH. Pauli, 1994. Cl~mate Effects onMountain Plants. Nature 369: 448.

Jurkiewicz, B.A. and G.R.Buettner, 1994. Ulrraviolet Light-Induced Free Radical Formation inSkin: An Electron ParamagnericResonance Study. Photochemistry andPhotobiology 59: 1-4.

Kwon, 0-Y and].L. Schnoor,1994. Simple Global Carbon Model:The Atmosphere-TerrestrialBiosphere-Ocean Interacrion. GlobalBiogeochemical Cycles 8:295-305.

Malanson, G.P. and D.R. Buder,1994. Competitive Hierarchies, SoilFertility Gradients, and theElevation of Treeline in GlacierNational Park, Montana. PhysicalGeography 15: 166-180.

Marquis, R.]. and c.]. Whelan,1994. Insectivorous Birds IncreaseGrowth of White Oak throughConsumption of Leaf-ChewingInsects. Ecology 7.5:2007-2014.

Phillips, O.L. and A.H. Gentry,1994. Increasing Turnover throughTime in Tropical Forests. Science263:954-957.

Raich, ].W., and C.S. Potter,1995. Global Parterns of CarbonDioxide Emissions from Soils.Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9(1):in press.

Takle, E.S. and L.O. Mearns,1995. Temperature Means,Extremes, and Variability in theU.S. Midwesr: Analysis ofObserved Data and Global andRegional Model Results. Preprints,

Ninth Conference on AppliedClimatology, Dallas, TX, AmericanMeteorological Society, 202-205.

Editor's Note.: From time to time,IOWATCH will replace the usual ~ocultyFocus column with a description of studentactivities. Training students in the'interdisciplinary mode of thinking requiredfor addressing global change issuesremains a major goal at CGRER.Most ofthis effort is directed toward graduate andundergraduate students in the naturalsciences and engineering. However,occasionally a younger student is enlistedin CGRER's ranks.

During the summer of 1994, internRenee Hurtig performed library researchin government policies dealing withgreenhouse gases. Renee, newlygraduated from City High in Iowa City,became interested in this field throughhigh school debate. Now a freshman atDuke University, Renee plans to major inpublic policy. She summarized herinternship investigations in the fallowingarticle:.

magine going into chegreenhouse of yourlocal plant store andpermanently raisingthe temperatureseveral degrees.Understandably, the

owners would be furious -thousands of dollars of plantswould w}ther, suffer, and die,and the owners' livelihoodwould be wiped out. Thefinancial losses would hindertheir ability CO provide foodand shelter for their families.Now translate that scenariointo one involving billions ofpeople and it's easy to seewhy many people areconcerned about the potential -for global warming.

Global warming isattributed to the magnifica-tion of a phenomenon knownas the greenhouse effect. Likea greenhouse's glass panels,the Earth's atmosphere allowssunlight to filter through andheat the planet's surface. TheEarth sends back much 'ofthat heat in the form of

infrared radiation, yet not allof it escapes. Greenhousegases, such as CO2, watervapor, and ozone, trap someof this heat and send it backto the sfurface, adding to thewarming effect of sunlight.Without this natural trap-ping effect, the averageglobal temperature woulddrop approximately 600 F.

A continual rise in theconcentration of CO2 in theatmosphere since the start ofthe Industrial Revolution hasmagnified the greentlOuseeffect. Coincidentally, globaltemperatures have risen

. slightly, but the warming iswithin the annual variabilitythat might be expected.

"Some scientists attribute thatrise in temperature to,theemission of CO2 fromincreased burning of fossilfuels such as coal, combined

"with the destruction offorests and vegetation, whichabsorb some of the excessCO2, Carbon dioxide emis-sions have more than tripledsince 1950, while at thecurrent rate of deforestation,the world's tropical rainforests, one of the largestknown storers of CO2, will allbut disappear by midwayinto the 21 st ce;tury. Someexperts predict that CO2

concentrations in theatmosphere will double bythat time.

The United States is theworld's largest CO2 emitter,followed by China andRussia. In 1993, approxi-mately 5,900 million tons ofCO2 were emitted by allcountries from fossil fuelburning --:- 68% of whichwas from the industrial worldand former Soviet Bloc, .although those countries haveonly 22% of the world'spopulation. The UnitedS~ates leads the world in per

capita emissions of CO2, with5.4 metric tons of carbon,and Iowa ranks thirteenthamong states in thiscategory.

As a result of the magnifi-cation of the greenhouse

1991, increased by only afra~tion of a degree over thoseof the mid-1950s, theaverage temperatures duringthe summer growing s'easonwere at record levels for thelast three years in that period.

<;+fect,it has been estimatedthat global temperaturescould rise 2 to 50 F. TheIntergovernmental Panel onClimate Change estimatedthat global temperaturescould rise as high as 190 C by2050 if CO2 concentrationsdouble. The expected climatechange would be of a magni-tude similar to the differencebetween today's climate andthat of the last lee Age. In aworst-case scenario, thiswarming could lead to themelting of the polar ice caps,raising sea levels and dra-matically altering coastlines,while also disrupting andpotentially destroying theworld's already-limitedsupply of fresh water.However, all of these predic-tions are highly uncertain.

It may be hard to believethat a few degfees of tem-perature change could havesuch dire consequences. Yetin Iowa, the possible impactsof global warming on cropproduction are grave enoughto hit home. While averagetemperatures for the five-year'period ending in March,

Using NASA's models,researchers at Michigan StateUniversity predicted that theaverage growing seasontemperature in Des Moineswould be 6.3 to 14.40 Fwarmer if CO2 levels aredoubled, with no s~bstantialchange in the amount ofprecipitation. Crop failuresand food shortages couldbecome commonplace.Farmers would need torespond with different croptypes and new farmingtechniques, and seed compa-nies would need to developnew genetically adaptedvarieties.

To reverse this trend andstabilize CO2 concentrationsin the atmosphere, CO2

emissions would have to becut 60%.

The global implications ofthe greenhouse effect haveattrac~ed international"attention. The Earth Sum-mit, held in Rio de Janeiro inJune, 1992, produced anumber of agreements thatdealt with global warming onsome level. Agenda 21, aforty-chapter document ofprograms and cost estimates,

outl'ined goals and an actionplan for promoting environ-mentally and economicallysustainable development,especially in industrializingcountries. Individual chaptersdealt with combating climatechange and preventingdeforestation.

Also accepted in conjunc-tion with the Rio conferencewas the Convention onClimate Change. The goal ofthe convention was to "...achieve ... stabilization ofgreenhouse gas concentra-tions in the atmosphere at alevel that would preventdangerous anthropogenicinterference with the climatesystem. Such a level shouldbe achieved within a timeframe sufficient to allow -ecosystems to adapt naturallyto climate change, to ensurethat food production is notthreatened, and to enable

economic development toproceed in a sustainablemanner.,,1 The conventionrequires industrializedcountries to develop nationalemission standards andinventories and to report ontheir progress, but no specifictargets or dates are includedother than the aim ofreturning greenhouse gases to"earlier levels" by the year2000.

To fulfill the goals andrequirements of the conven-tion, President Bill Clintonand Vice President Al Goreproposed their ClimateChange Action Plan inOctober, 1993. The Clinton-Gore plan intends to reduceU.S. greenhouse gas emis-sions to 1990 levels by theyear 2000 through initiativesin all sectors of the economy- industry, transportation,homes, office buildings,forestry, and agriculture.Actions in each of thesesectors are designed toincrease the markets forgreenhouse gas emission-reducing technology, includ-ing alternative energy sourcessuch as wind and solar powc:r,while protecting foreststhrough increased recycling,better forest management,arid more tree planting. Fewof these plans were imple-mented as of the summer of1994.

Currently, no nationalgovernment laws or programsexist that intentionally anddirectly address greenhousegas emissions in the UnitedStates. The Clean Air Act of1990 focused mostly onurban s"mog, acid rain, andair quality. The act targets189 pollutants, ranging fromfreon, used in refrigeratorsand air-conditioners, tohydrocarbon ethanol, a yeastby-product produced in largequantities by bread bakeries,whose emissions must be cutby 90%. It also sets regionalair quality sta.ndards andemission levels and fees formany pollutants.

One section of the Cle~nAir Act that does addressgreenhouse gas emissions hasa direct impact on Iowa. Theact requires that the smoggi-

- est areas of the country beginusing cleaner-burning ,"reformulated" gasoline thatis2% oxygen by weight by1995. On]une 30,1994, theU.S. E,nvironmental Protec-tion Agency ruled that 30%of the oxygenates added to I

the gasoline to meet thestandard must be made froma renewable source. Ethanol,an oxygenate made fromcorn, is the only product thatcould meet the expecteddemand when the newgasoline hits the pumps. Iowais the second largest producerof ethanol in the country,producing almost five timesas much as the third largestproducer, Indiana.

This requirement iscontroversial in two re~pects.First of all, conflictingreports about the environ-mental and economic benefitsof ethanol, compared to itsfossil fuel based alternative

. methanol, have been given bythe U .S, EnvironmentalProtection Agency and theU.S. Department of Agricul-ture. Second, the oil industry,the primary distributor of

. methanol in this country, issuing the government overthis decision.

On the state governmentlevel, the Energy EfficiencyAct of 1990 required Iowautilities to spend 2% of theirelectric energy revenues and1.5% of their natural gasenergy revenues on energyefficiency programs. Iowansuse more energy per capitathan residents of forty otherstates, and most of thisenergy is generated by CO2producing methods such asburning fossil fuels. A 1989study for the Iowa UtilitiesBoard concluded that "thenet benefit to Iowa onefficiency investments of $39million to $52 million could

range from $89 million to$205 million, making energyefficiency the most economi-

, cally attractive source ofenergy supply.,,2 The effi-ciency plans must includeprograms such as givingrebates on efficient appliancesand light bulbs, and tree-planting.

Our behavior can affectecosystems and climatesfrom those of the small worldof a local greenhouse to thoseof the Earth. Vice PresidentAl Gore acknowledged theneed for people to recognizethe scope and impact of theiractions when he wrote:

Human civilization is nowthe dominant cause of change inthe global environment. Yet weresist this truth and find it hardto imagine that our effect on theearth must now be measured bythe same yardstick used tocalculate 1he strength of themoon's pull on the oceans or the

force of the wind against themountains. And if we are nowcapable of changing something sobasic as the relationship betweenthe earth and the sun, surely wemust acknowledge a newresponsibility to use that powerwisely and with appropriaterestraint.3 !.t

References1. "A Summary of the Major

Documents Signed at the EarthSummit and the Global Forum,"Environment, pp. 12-15+, Oct.1992.

2. "Cutting Energy Bill HelpsEconomy, Environment," NacyLange, Des Moines Register, p. 13(news), Ocr. 18, 1993.

3. Earth in the Balance, Al Gore,1993, Penguin Books.

n August, 1994,CGRER awarded itsfourth set of annualseed grants. These$15,000 grants areintended to finance thecommencement of

projects relating to globalchange, with the prospectthat larger-scale funding thenwill be found to allow their

, continuation. The eight newgrants cover ~esearch fromSeptember, 1994, throughAugust, 1995. The deadlinefor grants for the fifth awardperiod (commencing 9/95) isMay, 1995.R ARRITT (Agronomy,ISU) is evaluating theregional impact of potentialclimate changes resultingfrom the predicted doublingof atmospheric t02 by themiddle of the comingcentury. By examiningpotential changes in large-scale patterns conducive tospring and summer precipita-tion in the Great Plains, hehopes to estimate precipita-tion changes and promote theevaluation of adaptivestrategies.T-~ CHEN (Geological andAtmospheric Sciences, ISU) islooking at climatic changesand global air circulationpatterns. Over the past 40years, a deepening of the lowpressure system over theNorth Pacific and amplifica-tion of the high pressure .system over the Californiacoast have intensified thechal)neling of cold air fromCanada southward into theMidwest. Chen's research isamong the first to examinethe relationship betweenshort and long-term changesin.climate and global aircirculation patterns as theyaffect the Midwest.A ELDERING (Civil andEnvironmental Engineering,U of I) is investigatin~atmospheric aerosol particu-

lates. Although little isknown about thejr size,chemical composition, andtransport in the Midwest,aerosols are importantdeterminants of air quality.By scattering incomingradiation, they also couldcounteract global warmingtrends. Eldering trusts thather research will provide thebaseline data needed toascertain problem areas andtrace future changes inaerosol levels.B HELLAND and PALVAREZ (Civil andEnvironmental Engineering,U of I) are looking atfeasibility and specific design

Seedscriteria for using elemental .iron to transform chlorinatedmethane chemicals (such ascarbon tetrachloride) intorelatively innocuous com-pounds. Chlorinatedmethanes are hazardous bothto humans and to thestratospheric ozone layer;thus methods to detoxifythem are of great interest.C PAVLIK and M ,ARMSTRONG (Geography,U of I), D ZIMMERMAN(Statistics and ActuarialScience, U of I) are evaluatingwhich surface generatingtechniques most accuratelyinterpolate and displayvarious types of environmen-tal data (such as measure-ments of acid rain deposition)collected at field stations. Todo this, they are linking GISsoftware to a statistical pro-gramming environment tomap out and visualizeenvironmental data, Theirresearch will also assist in

. siting field data collection-stations.F POTRA (Mathematics andComputer Science, U of I)

and G CARMICHAEL(Chemical and BiochemicalEngineering, U of I) aredeveloping a sophisticatedmathem~tical model toinvestigate the chemistry andtransport of troposphericcontaminants. This computermodel will allow faster andmore precise simulations ofatmospheric transport andchemistry processes, leadingto a better understanding ofthe environmental effects ofcontaminants around theglobe, both at present and inthe future.J SCHNOOR (Civil andEnvironmental Engineering,U of I) and DFORKENBROCK (PublicPolicy Center, U of I) arecommencing a policy-oriented collaborativeresearch effort with the IowaDepartment of NaturalResources and the MidwestTransportation Center. Theyintend to inventory Iowagreenhouse gases, and then tointegrate the strategies ofincreased energy efficiencyand reforestation into anaction plan for reducinggreenhouse gases in Iowa.Transportation, residential,and agricultural policyalternatives will be analyzed.US TIM (Agricul~ural andBiosystems Engineering,ISU) and R JOLLY (Econom-ics, ISU) are concerned aboutthe environmental andeconomic implications ofglobal warming on rangelandecosystems. They are at-tempting to integratebiophysical and economicmodels to estimate theimpact of changes in climateon rangeland hydrology,forage production, andanimal production. They alsoare using the integratedmodeling system to examinethe potential impact onregional economies. '"

The University of Iowa's Centerfor Global and Regional Environmental

'Research (CGRERl promotesinterdisciplinary efforts that focus onthe multiple aspects of globalenvironmental change, including its .regional effects on natural ecosys-tems, environments, and resources,and on human health, culture, andsocial systems. Center membership iscomposed of interested facultymembers at any of Iowa's collegesand universities.

Center goals are promoted byencouraging interdisciplinary researchand dialogue among individuals whosedisciplines touch upon any of themultifaceted aspects of global change.More specifically, the Center awardsseed grants, fosters interdisciplinarycourses, provides state-of-the-artresearch facilities and equipment, andholds seminars and symposia. TheCenter encourages students tobroaden their studies and researchthrough considering the multi-disciplinary aspects of global andregional envlranmental problems.Through such activities, the (enterattempts to assist Iowa's agencies,industries, and citizens as theyprepare for accelerated environmentalchange that may accompany moderntechnologies.

Housed in the Iowa AdvancedTechnology Laboratory at TheUniversity of Iowa, the Center wasestablished by the State Board ofRegents in 1990 and received fundingthrough the year 2001 from a publicutility trust fund, as mandated by theState of Iowa's Energy Efficiency Act.

IOWATCH15 published biannuallyfor researchers, employees of stateagencies and public utilities, membersof citizen action groups, and otherMidwesterners interested inenvironmental change and the actionsof the center. Newsletter articles maybe reprinted with proper citation.Comments, questions, and requests foradditional copies are welcomedi pleasecontact:

Jane frank, Admin. Asst.CGRERThe University of Iowa, 204 IAlLIowa City, Iowa 52-242319-335-3333fAX 319-335-3337

~ PrlnUdmt16& Rff1</dP_

Written and edited by CcinnieMutelDesigned by Patti O'Neill,The University of Iowa Printing Dept.57798/3-95