The CAULDRON GameClimate Attribution Under Loss & Damage: Risking, Observing, Negotiating

Designed by Pablo Suarez (Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre)

and the ACE-Africa Team

Farming

Science

UNFCCC

Ongoing increases in global greenhouse gas emissions

If global emissions peak

within next few years then

decline

makes little

difference for

next few

decades

Change is inevitable

Creative Commons: Tim J Keegan, 2009

Increasing number of extreme events?

Can any of these

be blamed on

climate change?

Flooding in India, Creative Commons: Samenwerkende Hulporganisaties

Creative Commons: Oxfam International, 2012

Creative Commons: Brendan Cox/ Oxfam, 2006

Creative Commons: Jire Carreon/ Oxfam, 2013

Increasing impacts?

Farming Modeling

Game phases

Team 1 Team 2 Team 3

Input: “Bag of seeds” + Your investment decisions

External Factor: Rains, other people’s decisions

Output: Food & Crises

1. Decisions are individual But team consultation is encouraged

3. Time is scarceBe prepared to be rushed

2. Game = simplified representation of realityNo questioning of game rules, for now

4. No messing with the RainmakerProper time & way to shake it

Ground Rules

Mary Mwangochi (GEF)

José Bolaños (Govt Perú)

9

Imagine you are a farmer….

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Developing Countries

PLANTING

CHOICE

OK

Good Rains Drought

LOW

YIELD Harvest: +1 Harvest: -1

HIGH

YIELDHarvest +2 Harvest: -4

LOST

LOST

LOSTLOST

LOST

Mary Mwangochi (GEF)

José Bolaños (Govt Perú)

9

6

PLANTING

CHOICE

OK

Good Rains Drought

LOW

YIELD Harvest: +1 Harvest: -1

HIGH

YIELDHarvest +2 Harvest: -4

LOST

LOST

LOSTLOST

LOST

Developing Countries

If a country cannot plant

enough beans in time,

a Humanitarian Crisis occurs

(red stone)

To avoid a crisis,

you can seek beans from neighbors

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Drought

Prob: 1/6 ?

or 2/6 ?

Global Climate Change Kicks InMostly due to past greenhouse gas emissions…

Total historical CO2 emissions

from each country Source: Carbon Quilt

Will Your Rainmaker Change?

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

Has your drought probability changed?

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Pay 3 beans!

Infrastructure Investment

Creative Commons: Aran Johnson Creative Commons: Neil Palmer, CIAT, 2010

Creative Commons: Phil Gravell

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Financial Crisis

Pay 3 beans!

Creative Commons: Images_of_Money

Drought

(“Oh No!”)

Good rains

OK

FARMING SEQUENCE

1. Place beans in your Planting Choice (“Low Yield” or “High Yield”), before

rainy season countdown.

2. Shake rainmaker

3. Harvest according to info in your table

You may borrow beans from or loan to neighboring countries

– if agreement!

Climate Science Phase

Difficult question:

extreme events are rare

so we don’t have much data…

Now imagine you are a scientist…

Has the risk of extreme events

increased?

Climate Science Phase

We have a model of the CHANGED climate,

that can be run just 12 times

Run your model experiments!

Climate models can help

Scientists can run models many times to produce statistics

BUT the number of experiments is limited

AND lots of associated uncertainties!

• Has your risk changed as a result of climate change?

• What is your evidence to support this?

• How confident are you?

• How important was your model in helping you

understand if there had been a change in risk?

Discuss in pairs

Risky Business

Did climate change increase your risk of drought?

Open your rain maker to find out!

What was really going on?

What does this mean in reality?

Please attribute the CAULDRON Game with a link to

http://www.afclix.org/elgg/groups/profile/155192/aceafr

ica-attributing-impacts-of-external-climate-drivers-on-

extreme-weather-in-africa

Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.en_US

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0

International License