The Case of the Mysterious, Moving Calculations … Counting High School

Graduates and DropoutsPrepared by the Community Service Council, with support

from the Metropolitan Human Services Commission

REVISED: November 15, 2013

Dropout and Completion Rates Defined by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)

• The event dropout rate estimates the percentage of high school students who left high school between the beginning of one school year and the beginning of the next without earning a high school diploma or an alternative credential (e.g., a GED). This report presents a national event dropout rate for students attending both public and private schools using the Current Population Survey (CPS) and state event dropout rates for public high school students using the Common Core of Data (CCD). Event dropout rates can be used to track annual changes in the dropout behavior of students in the U.S. school system.

• The status dropout rate reports the percentage of individuals in a given age range who are not in school (public or private) and have not earned a high school diploma or an alternative credential. The rate is calculated using CPS data with supplemental information from the American Community Survey (ACS) for all analyses of those in institutionalized group quarters. It focuses on an overall age group as opposed to individuals in the U.S. school system, so it can be used to study general population issues.

• The status completion rate indicates the percentage of individuals in a given age range who are not currently enrolled in high school and who have earned a high school diploma or an alternative credential, irrespective of when or where the credential was earned.6 The rate is calculated using CPS data. It focuses on an overall age group as opposed to individuals in the U.S. school system, so it can be used to study general population issues.7

• The averaged freshman graduation rate estimates the proportion of public high school freshmen who graduate with a regular diploma 4 years after starting 9th grade. The rate is calculated using data from the CCD. It focuses on public high school students as opposed to all high school students or the general population and is designed to provide an estimate of on-time graduation from high school. Thus, it provides a measure of the extent to which public high schools are graduating students within the expected period of 4 years.

Source: US Dept. of Education, Ntl. Center for Education Statistics, “Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States: 1972-2009.”

National Center for Education

Statistics Dropout,

Completion, and Graduation

Rates

National Governors Association Graduation Counts Compact Formula, a Four-Year Adjusted

Cohort Graduation Rate

Source: NGA Center for Best Practices, “Implementing Graduation Counts: State Progress to Date, 2010.”

Special education students and recent immigrants with limited English proficiency can be assigned to different cohorts to afford them more time to graduate.

The denominator can be adjusted for transfers in and out of the system.

Graduation Rate Definitions Reported by Oklahoma Office of Accountability

• School Year Ending 1998 to SYE 2004: Graduation Rate– The graduation rate is calculated by dividing the current number of graduates by the 9th

grade student enrollment (ADM) four years earlier.

• School Year Ending 2005 to SYE 2012: Senior Graduation Rate– The current graduates divided by current year graduates plus dropouts for the 12th grade.

• School Year Ending 2008 to SYE 2012: Average Freshman Graduation Rate & Senior Graduation Rate– Average Freshman Graduation Rate: Current graduates divided by the cohort of the

average number of students in 8th, 9th, and 10th grades. For the school year 2007-2008 this uses the cohort of 8th graders in 2003-2004, 9th graders in 2004-2005, and 10th graders in 2005-2006.

– Senior Gradation Rate: The current graduates divided by current year graduates plus dropouts for the 12th grade.

Source: Office of Accountability Profiles State Report for respective years.

Dropout Rate Definitions Reported by Oklahoma Office of Accountability

• School Year Ending 2005 to SYE 2012: Four-Year High School Dropout Rate & Single Year Rates– Four-Year Rate: The total number of dropouts for a graduating class was calculated by adding the dropout counts under age 19 for

the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th grade over the previous four-year period, respectively. This sum was labeled legal dropouts. Then the legal dropouts are divided by the sum of their graduates plus the legal dropouts.

– Single Year Rate: Dropout rates are calculated on 9th through 12th graders below the age of 19. The number of 9th through12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade fall enrollment.

• School Year Ending 2001 to SYE 2004: Single-Year High School Dropout Rate– Dropout rates are calculated on 9th through 12th graders below the age of 19. The number of 9th through12th grade dropouts is

divided by 9th through 12th grade fall enrollment. The change from using the ADM to fall enrollment allowed calculation of site level rates.

• School Year Ending 1995 to SYE 2000: Single-Year Dropout Rate

– During the 1994-1995 school year the legal definition for school dropout changed from any student who is less than 18, to any student under the age of 19, and has not graduated from high school. These students must not be attending any other public or private school or otherwise be receiving an education pursuant to the law, for the full term that the school in which they reside is in session. Dropout rates are calculated on 9th through 12th graders below the age of 19. The number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade average daily membership.

• Legal Dropout, as defined by Oklahoma State Department of Education– School dropout means any student who is under the age of nineteen (19), and has not graduated from high school, and is not

attending any public or private school, or is otherwise receiving an education pursuant to law for the full term the schools of the school district in which he resides are in session. (See State of Oklahoma, Student Dropout Reporting Procedures Manual for description of specific situations in which “dropout” is deemed applicable.)

Source: Office of Accountability Profiles State Report for respective years; Oklahoma State Department of Education website, Student Dropout Report.

Oklahoma State Department of Education Final Formula for the Four-Year Adjusted Cohort

Graduation Rate for 2016

Source: Oklahoma State Department of Education, “Cohort Graduation Rate Guide,” April 2013.

Number of cohort members who earned a regular high school diploma by the end of the 2015-16 school year

Number of first-time 9th graders in fall 2012 (starting cohort) plus students who transfer in, minus students who transfer out, emigrate, or die during school years 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16

Reported Graduation Rates: Oklahoma

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0%

10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%

100.0%

72.9% 73.4% 74.4% 74.3% 75.2% 74.3% 74.5% 75.4%

0.973 0.972 0.97 0.973 0.978 0.979 0.979 0.977

0.796 0.772 0.784 0.798 0.79

Graduation Rate Senior Graduation RateAveraged Freshman Graduation Rate

Graduation rate is calculated by comparing the current number of graduates to the 9 th grade student enrollment four years earlier. Beginning 2005 a Senior graduation rate was used, which divides current year graduates by graduates plus dropouts (under age 19) for the 12th grade that same year. SYE 2008 Average freshman graduation rate was added for state and county district totals, calculated as current graduates divided by the cohort of the average number of students in 8 th, 9th, and 10th grades.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

Reported Graduation Rate Trendline: Oklahoma

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Graduation rate is calculated by comparing the current number of graduates to the 9 th grade student enrollment four years earlier. Beginning 2005 a Senior graduation rate was used, which divides current year graduates by current year graduates plus dropouts (under age 19) for the 12th grade that same year. SYE 2008 Average freshman graduation rate was added for state and county district totals, calculated as current graduates divided by the cohort of the average number of students in 8 th, 9th, and 10th grades.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

graduation rateaveraged freshman graduation rate

senior graduation rate

Graduation Rates, School Years Ending 1997, 2004, 2005 and 2012: Tulsa County and Public Schools Within (part 1)

Tulsa County Berryhill Bixby Broken Arrow Collinsville Glenpool Jenks0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

1997 2004 2005 20121997 and 2004 show the Graduation rate, calculated by comparing the current number of graduates to the 9 th grade student enrollment four years earlier. 2005 and 2012 show a Senior graduation rate, which divides current year graduates by current year graduates plus dropouts (under age 19) for the 12th grade that same year. The Average freshman graduation rate was, calculated as current graduates divided by the cohort of the average number of students in 8 th, 9th, and 10th grades, was not reported by district.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

Graduation Rates, School Years Ending 1997, 2004, 2005 and 2012: Tulsa County and Public Schools Within (part 2)

Liberty Owasso Sand Springs Skiatook Sperry Tulsa Union0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

1997 2004 2005 20121997 and 2004 show the Graduation rate, calculated by comparing the current number of graduates to the 9 th grade student enrollment four years earlier. 2005 and 2012 show a Senior graduation rate, which divides current year graduates by current year graduates plus dropouts (under age 19) for the 12th grade that same year. The Average freshman graduation rate was, calculated as current graduates divided by the cohort of the average number of students in 8 th, 9th, and 10th grades, was not reported by district.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

Reported Dropout Rates: Oklahoma

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

5.6% 5.5% 5.1% 5.2%4.7%

3.9% 3.6% 3.5%

14.5% 14.1% 14.2%13.2%

12.4%

11.1%10.2%

9.7%

Dropout rate (ADM) Dropout rate (fall enroll.) 4-year dropout rate

SYE 1995 to SYE 2000: Dropout rate- The number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade average daily membership. SYE 2001 to SYE 2004: the number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade fall enrollment. Beginning with school year ending, 2005 the Office of Accountability added a four-year high school dropout rate. The total number of dropouts for a graduating class was calculated by adding the dropout counts under age 19 for the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th grade over the previous four-year period, respectively. Then dividing by the sum of their graduates plus the legal dropouts.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

Reported Dropout Rate Trendline: Oklahoma

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Dropout rate (ADM)

4-year dropout rateDropout rate (fall enroll.)

SYE 1995 to SYE 2000: Dropout rate- The number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade average daily membership. SYE 2001 to SYE 2004: the number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade fall enrollment. Beginning with school year ending, 2005 the Office of Accountability added a four-year high school dropout rate. The total number of dropouts for a graduating class was calculated by adding the dropout counts under age 19 for the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th grade over the previous four-year period, respectively. Then dividing by the sum of their graduates plus the legal dropouts.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

Reported Dropout Rates: Tulsa County

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

6.4% 6.4% 6.1%5.5% 5.2%

4.0%4.7%

4.2%

16.8%17.3%

18.2%17.5%

16.5%

13.9%13.0% 12.6%

Dropout rate (ADM) Dropout rate (fall enroll.) 4-year dropout rate

SYE 1995 to SYE 2000: Dropout rate- The number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade average daily membership. SYE 2001 to SYE 2004: the number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade fall enrollment. Beginning with school year ending, 2005 the Office of Accountability added a four-year high school dropout rate. The total number of dropouts for a graduating class was calculated by adding the dropout counts under age 19 for the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th grade over the previous four-year period, respectively. Then dividing by the sum of their graduates plus the legal dropouts.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

Reported Dropout Rates: Tulsa Public Schools

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

9.9%8.8% 9.4%

8.4% 8.5%6.6%

9.0%7.6%

28.6% 28.9%29.8%

25.1% 25.0%

18.1%17.0%

19.5%

Dropout rate (ADM) Dropout rate (fall enroll.) 4-year dropout rate

SYE 1995 to SYE 2000: Dropout rate- The number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade average daily membership. SYE 2001 to SYE 2004: the number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade fall enrollment. Beginning with school year ending, 2005 the Office of Accountability added a four-year high school dropout rate. The total number of dropouts for a graduating class was calculated by adding the dropout counts under age 19 for the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th grade over the previous four-year period, respectively. Then dividing by the sum of their graduates plus the legal dropouts.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

Dropout Rates, School Years Ending 1997, 2004, 2005 and 2012: Tulsa County and Public Schools Within (part 1)

Tulsa County

Berryhill

Bixby

Broken Arro

w

Collinsvi

lle

GlenpoolJenks

Liberty

Owasso

Sand Sp

rings

Skiatook

Sperry

TulsaUnion

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1997 2004 2005 2012SYE 1995 to SYE 2000: Dropout rate- The number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade average daily membership. SYE 2001 to SYE 2004: the number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade fall enrollment. Beginning with school year ending, 2005 the Office of Accountability added a four-year high school dropout rate. The total number of dropouts for a graduating class was calculated by adding the dropout counts under age 19 for the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th grade over the previous four-year period, respectively. Then dividing by the sum of their graduates plus the legal dropouts.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

Dropout Rates, School Years Ending 1997, 2004, 2005 and 2012: Tulsa County and Public Schools Within (part 1)

Tulsa County Berryhill Bixby Broken Arrow Collinsville Glenpool Jenks0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

1997 2004 2005 2012

SYE 1995 to SYE 2000: Dropout rate- The number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade average daily membership. SYE 2001 to SYE 2004: the number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade fall enrollment. Beginning with school year ending, 2005 the Office of Accountability added a four-year high school dropout rate. The total number of dropouts for a graduating class was calculated by adding the dropout counts under age 19 for the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th grade over the previous four-year period, respectively. Then dividing by the sum of their graduates plus the legal dropouts.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

Dropout Rates, School Years Ending 1997, 2004, 2005 and 2012: Tulsa County and Public Schools Within (part 2)

Liberty Owasso Sand Springs Skiatook Sperry Tulsa Union0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1997 2004 2005 2012

SYE 1995 to SYE 2000: Dropout rate- The number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade average daily membership. SYE 2001 to SYE 2004: the number of 9th through 12th grade dropouts is divided by 9th through 12th grade fall enrollment. Beginning with school year ending, 2005 the Office of Accountability added a four-year high school dropout rate. The total number of dropouts for a graduating class was calculated by adding the dropout counts under age 19 for the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th grade over the previous four-year period, respectively. Then dividing by the sum of their graduates plus the legal dropouts.

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.

CSC Calculated Attrition Rates: Tulsa County

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

-24.5% -24.9% -24.5%-26.0%

-27.2%

-24.6%-25.9%

-26.7% -26.8%-27.6%

na na

Based on data reported by the Oklahoma Office of Accountability, attrition rate is calculated by dividing number of 9 th graders minus the number of 12th graders of same cohort by the number of 9th graders (same cohort).

Source: Education Oversight Board, Office of Accountability.