THE CASE FOR THE REINSTATEMENT OF A PASSENGER TRAIN SERVICE

TO MILDURA

IN RESPONSE TO INFRASTRUCTURE VICTORIA’S 2016 30 YEAR DRAFT STRATEGY

AN ACCESSIBLE, SUSTAINABLE AND EFFICIENT

PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEM FOR MILDURA

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CONTENTS Page NWRA Response to Infrastructure Victoria’s Draft 30 Year Strategy 3 NWRA Cost-Benefit Analysis 5-6 Mildura’s Demographic and Geographic Case 11 Population and Growth 11 Geographic Isolation 13 Social Access and Equity 14 Mildura’s Economic Case 15 Gross Regional Product 15 Tourism 16

Hospitality and Retail 16

Mildura’s Public Transport Case 16 Myth Vs Fact 16 Public Transport Tends – Global and State (Melbourne and Regional) 17 Public Transport Subsidy 17 Mildura Region Patronage 18 Mildura’s Transport Security 20 Mildura’s Transport Dependent Economy 20 Threats to Transport Security: Carbon Tax and Peak Oil 20 Future-Proofing Mildura’s Economy by Diversifying Transport Modes 20 Mildura’s Environmental Case 20 Mildura’s Climate 20 Mildura’s Carbon Footprint 21

Environmental Sustainability 21 Mildura’s Infrastructure Needs 23 Further Rail Upgrades to Handle Speeds of 130-160kph 23 Upgrades of Stations, Crossings and Signalling 23 Services and Frequency of Services 23 Gauge Standardisation and Connection to the National Rail Network 24 Passenger and Freight Rail Co-Considerations 24 Conclusion 24 References 25 Appendices 26

1 Regional Rail Boom. 2 SKM on GHG. 3 Bill Russell’s Report. 4 Murray Basin Rail Project. 5 Seasonal Labour. 6 The Case for Decentralisation. 7 Melbourne-Mildura Flights. 8 Advocacy for Increases in Rural Train Services.

Attachments 1 Mildura Social Indicators 2012. 2 Mildura Development Corporation Report - Murray Basin Rail Project 2014. 3 Campaspe Public Transport Advocacy (2). 4 GHD Report.

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NWRA RESPONSE TO INFRASTRUCTURE VICTORIA’S DRAFT 30 YEAR INFRASTRUCTURE STRATEGY Contact with Infrastructure Victoria by NWRA on release of the draft strategy NWRA President Christian Mitchell spoke to and then received an email from

Summary of telephone discussion points: The NWRA was bitterly disappointed with the exclusion of the Mildura Passenger Rail from the strategy. The NWRA, as a major lobby group, wished to know why it had been excluded from consultations (both the Foundation and Options Paper stages), prior to the release of the draft strategy. The NWRA noted that Infrastructure Victoria representatives had met in March 2016 with MRCC who had indicated a passenger train was a low priority. NWRA Response: This was clearly a misrepresentation of the peoples’ wishes. Certainty of Evidence: Very low. Edited email: Hi Christian, Good to chat with you briefly regarding the release of Victoria's draft 30 year infrastructure strategy. We encourage the North West Rail Alliance to consider the draft strategy and provide your feedback by Monday 31 October. Here are the links to the documentation. As discussed, we are very happy to meet with you before the closing date to discuss any of the evidence base you have assembled or to understand more about our assessment process. I would also suggest that you read through all the research on the MPR option in the options book v2 and the AECOM report. Please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions, and I look forward to staying in touch with you over the coming weeks. Cheers, Ed NWRA Response to the OVERVIEW OF DRAFT STRATEGY: Mildura passenger rail restoration (MPR) Option type - Better use through refurbishment of existing assets Location - Mallee, Wimmera Southern Mallee and Loddon Campaspe regions Sector – Transport Certainty of evidence High NWRA Disputes this (see below) Direct option cost $750 million–$1 billion NWRA Disputes this (see CBA below) Option lead time 1–5 years Agreed Contribution to meeting the need (assumes instantaneous implementation) Need 10: Meet growing demand for access to economic activity in central Melbourne; and Need 12: Improve access to jobs and services for people in regional and rural areas NWRA adds several other Needs that have been inexplicably excluded (see below). Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low NWRA Disputes this 0-5 yrs 5-10 yrs 10-15 yrs 15-30 yrs NWRA Comment: NWRA disputes the premises on which Infrastructure Victoria (IV) based its case.

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What is this option? Restore passenger rail services to north-west Victorian communities between Mildura and Maryborough with connection through to Melbourne. Prior to 1993 passenger rail services linked north-west Victoria and Mildura with Melbourne. Currently only freight services use the tracks beyond Maryborough. The region is serviced by commercial flights between Mildura and Melbourne Airport and combination bus and train links via Swan Hill, Bendigo and Ballarat. NWRA Comment: Train travel is overwhelmingly preferred (to bus travel) – see below. The restoration of a passenger rail link provides better accessibility for people with mobility issues and improved connections to Melbourne and the local region for access to jobs and services. Agreed. NWRA Comment: A record public meeting of 1300 people at Mildura on March 17, 2010, voted overwhelmingly against buses, for train travel. This now historic meeting at The Setts in Eighth Street to demand the train back, was in response to the State Government’s Mildura Passenger Rail Feasibility Study. What is the level of community support? There was limited to no discussion of this option during public consultation. NWRA strongly questions this and is prepared to challenge this through the Ombudsman. Its case is presented below. What do we think of this option and why? This option was not recommended in the draft strategy because based on our assessment and the results of a previous feasibility study it provides a very low/negative contribution to meeting the need but at a high cost. NWRA Comment: The 2010 Mildura Passenger Rail Feasibility Study was flawed (for instance, no cost-sharing with freight was factored in, the Department of Transport mischievously used very-fast-train costings, was biased in pushing coach travel, and was heavily influenced by vested interests, including the Swan Hill and Mildura airport lobbies). Furthermore, the rail service would not be competitive with the convenience of private vehicles or the travel time of flying. NWRA is prepared to argue that IV has provided scant evidence for this conclusion, indeed, provides evidence that IV’s own Guiding Principles, Objectives and Needs have not been met. Even under our “regional cities” scenario, and despite submissions supporting this option, we believe that alternative solutions will better support the transport need along this corridor. This might include more frequent and direct coach services between Mildura and Melbourne that could be considered under regional coach upgrades (RCU). NWRA reiterates the overwhelming rejection of long-distance bus travel. In the draft strategy we have prioritised upgrading and improving the existing passenger rail network, given the sizeable task in doing this and demonstrable catchment, rather than reopening old lines which generally would serve a limited range of trips and have relatively high threshold costs to bring up to passenger operation standards.

NWRA categorically rejects the preferencing of Swan Hill over Mildura. See the NWRA Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) below. 4

NWRA Cost-Benefit Analysis Direct costs Direct costs are the infrastructure costs^ for each aspect or project of the reintroduction of passenger services. ^The CBA assumes attribution of many of the rail infrastructure upgrade costs to freight, not passenger. PROJECT NUMBER COSTED TO UNIT COST TOTAL 21 TAL Line Upgrade, Gauge Conversion Costed to Freight $0 Crossings: Maryborough-Mildura See below Passenger/freight $73,882,000.00 Stations Upgrade – see below 7 Passenger 7$1m, 2$5m $16,000,000.00 Rolling Stock Vlocity 160 DMU 4 x 3 car sets* Passenger $5.5m $22,000,000.00 Vlocity Standard Gauge Bogies 4 cars x 12 = 48 Passenger $150,000 $7,200,000.00 Points/Loops/Signalling(20)Communications(1) 20 conversions Passenger 20$.5m,1$1m $11,000,000.00 Design/Management (Introductory Phase) <5 years Passenger $2m/annum $10,000,000.00 Contingencies 15% of total Passenger $23,000,000.00 Total Direct Costs# $163,082,000.00 *A Vlocity DMU two car train set has a capacity to accommodate 144 passengers and a three car unit can accommodate 214 passengers. Cost by Project Level crossings Number Unit cost Total Level Crossings - Passive to Active 110 $600,000.00 $66,000,000.00 Level Crossings - Active to Boom 35 $240,000.00 $7,000,000.00 Occupation Crossings 35 $18,000.00 $630,000.00 Pedestrian Crossing - Activitation 2 $90,000.00 $180,000.00 Pedestrian Crossings - Crib and Wing Facilities 3 $24,000.00 $72,000.00 TOTAL $73,882,000.00

Station Upgrades Work required, to DDA compliance COST Ballarat Nil $0 Maryborough Nil $0 St Arnaud Work Required $1,000,000.00 Donald Work Required $1,000,000.00 Birchip Work Required $1,000,000.00 Ouyen Work Required $1,000,000.00 Red Cliffs Work Required $1,000,000.00 Irymple New Station $5,000,000.00 Mildura Work Required $1,000,000.00 Merbein New Station $5,000,000.00 TOTAL $16,000,000.00 Station upgrade works would include platforms repairs and resurfacing, provision of seating, verandah repairs etc. It is proposed that Myki be included, as is intended with V/Line long-distance trains. There are two new stations proposed: Irymple, replacing the previously demolished station – and Merbein, a new station prior to connecting into NSW, crossing at Yelta. Recurrent (Running and Maintenance) Costs Number Unit cost Totals (12 months) Crew Drivers $137k, Conductors $67.5k per annum 4 each=8 $1,636,000.00 Accommodation $150 Meals $65 pp, per night 2x6x52=624 $215pp $134,160.00 Fuel per litre $1.20 - $0.38 rebate = $0.82 per litre $0 Vlocity fuel .91 lt/km x $0.82/lt = $0.7462 per km x 604km 6 trips/wk x 52 $450.71 $140,619.90 Vlocity, run/maintain Powered = $1.50/km per 3 car set (4) 4x6x52wkx604km $1.50 $1,130,688.00 Melbourne access Metro Track Access Charges 2x6x52x47.5km $7.00 $207,480.00 Track & Signal Maintenance Per annum $6,000,000.00 Station Maintenance Per annum $2,500,000.00 TOTAL $18,948,947.90

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Direct benefits The economic benefits of the project fall into three main categories:

- Cost Savings: benefits which accrue as a direct result of the introduction of the project. These benefits mainly include the savings in fuel, efficiency and other operating costs as a result of modal shifts from road and air to rail. Comparisons with like passenger train reintroductions and increases in services would be expected to be replicated here and would significantly impact cost savings, especially on road maintenance.

- Direct benefits: would include value-added benefits associated with increases in passenger services – for example, rises in patronage concomitant with like services throughout the state (see the MRCC Social Indicators Report 2012 placing 30% of people at poverty level), tourism directly benefitting the hospitality industries as major regional employers, and agricultural industries directly benefitting from backpacker/immigrant seasonal workers.

- Externalities: benefits accruing to society as a whole as a result of changes to transport behaviour following the completion of the projects. These include non-user benefits such as reductions in emissions and other environmental externality savings (such as air and noise pollution) resulting in lower pollution impacts on society. Capital Costs and Phasing, with Passenger Operations Beginning in Year Three Spending on the project would extend over a period of five years. Years one and two would be major capital expenditure years, providing upgrades of stations, crossings, signalling and purchase of rolling stock. The level crossing would be upgraded over a period of five years, with the initial priority given to the crossings of high priority according to the ALCAM listing. MILDURA – RACV 2014 Report: Growing pains in Regional Victoria1 Mildura’s remote location affects many residents who drive to Melbourne for medical, business or social commitments using, for the most part, one of the least-safe national highways in Victoria – 49% of the Calder Hwy is one or two stars.

Transport alternatives to Melbourne are limited. The passenger train shut in 1993, the coach service to Melbourne takes up to nine hours and a return flight can be up to $400. Critical projects Road: Upgrade Sturt Hwy to three stars, and build a truck bypass for Mildura. Duplicate Calder Hwy between Mildura and Red Cliffs. Rail: Standardise Mildura line and investigate a passenger service. Bus: Implement a new connection to Mildura Airport. Pedestrians: Improve Eleventh Street pedestrian facilities and traffic management. RACV member Deanne says: “We have missed a number of family occasions due to a lack of affordable transport to Melbourne.”* *The NWRA urges IV to consult the MRCC 2014 Social Indicators (link in References) for unequivocal evidence of Mildura’s need of a regular and affordable train service. Page 11 indicates clearly that the MRCC area has 30% of its population in the low income bracket. For 30%, flying is NOT an option. Questions:

1 Why has the NWRA not been part of or seen the Foundation stage or the Options Paper? 2 Why were consultation meetings poorly advertised, with no use of social media? 3 Why was NWRA, as a major community-based lobby group, not contacted directly? 4 Why was only the MRCC interviewed when the public is a major stakeholder (public meeting)?

1 Source: http://www.racv.com.au/wps/wcm/connect/royalauto/home/motoring/information-advice/general-information/regional+transport

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5 Why has the elitist agenda of preferencing the airport been allowed to dominate, especially when the Mildura Social Indicators have consistently reported Mildura to be highly disadvantaged?

6 What has been the cost to Mildura of being denied a train? NWRA calculates that the 23 years of denial x V/Line per capita subsidy of $22.122 x 5 travels per person per annum x MRCC population 53,036 = $134,912,976.80 being owed to the people.

NWRA Comment: This is a question of state-wide equity. Mildura and its Mallee corridor communities, should not have to have their case tested in law in order to gain their Public Transport rights.

Infrastructure Victoria’s Own Guiding Principles:

Principle MPR Rating Consult and collaborate X - NWRA and stakeholders (public) excluded Drive improved outcomes X – IV case v. poor. NWRA to provide its case Integrate land use and infrastructure planning N/A on MPR Draw on compelling evidence X - Very poor evidence presented by IV on MPR Consider non-build solutions first MPR a refurbishment of existing assets Promote responsible funding and financing MPR would provide equity with the State Be open to change Infrastructure Victoria’s Own Objectives: Objectives MPR Rating 1. Prepare for population change Growth of tri-state hub ignored on MPR 2. Foster healthy, safe and inclusive communities Families etc. excluded from air travel 3. Reduce disadvantage Train travel would rate very highly 4. Enable workforce participation Train transport of backpacker/labour 5. Lift productivity Via labour and tourism (esp. hospitality) 6. Drive Victoria’s changing, globally integrated economy Through rail tourism & connectivity 7. Promote sustainable production and consumption 8. Protect and enhance natural environments Carbon emissions: rail wins over air 9. Advance climate change mitigation and adaptation Carbon emissions: rail wins over air 10. Build resilience to shocks Multi-modal transport security Infrastructure Victoria’s Own Needs: Highlighted in red are the Needs the NWRA can legitimately claim, which were overlooked by IV. Need 1. Address infrastructure demands in areas with high population growth Mildura = strong growth Need 2. Address infrastructure challenges in areas with low or negative population growth Tri-State hub? Need 3. Respond to increasing pressures on health infrastructure, particularly due to ageing Illness trips? Need 4. Enable physical activity and participation Need 5. Provide spaces where communities can come together Need 6. Improve accessibility for people with mobility challenges Trains are superior in both these needs Need 7. Provide better access to housing for the most vulnerable Victorians Decentralise to the Mallee!

2 https://corporate.V/Line.com.au/getattachment/6ad41cbe-17f6-489c-9fac-d65a1a627131/Annual-Report-2015-16

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Need 8. Address increasing demand on the justice system Need 9. Provide access to high-quality education infrastructure to support lifelong learning Need 10. Meet growing demand for access to economic activity in central Melbourne Decentralisation! Need 11. Improve access to middle and outer metropolitan major employment centres Need 12. Improve access to jobs and services for people in regional and rural areas Backpackers Need 13. Improve the efficiency of freight supply chains Need 14. Manage threats to water security, particularly in regional and rural areas Need 15. Manage pressures on landfill and waste recovery facilities Need 16. Help preserve natural environments and minimise biodiversity loss Need 17. Improve the health of waterways and coastal areas Need 18. Transition to lower carbon energy supply and use Compare per person carbon (Train/Plane) Need 19. Improve the resilience of critical infrastructure Multi-modal future Transport Security NWRA Case – Comparison of Carbon Emissions – Planes vs Trains Infrastructure Victoria Guiding Principles and Objectives: Principle MPR Rating Drive improved outcomes Lower CO2 trains improve outcomes (weather impacts) Draw on compelling evidence Lower train CO2 emissions evidence – vs planes Promote responsible funding and financing Priority given to lower CO2 emissions – train over plane Be open to change Yes to train. No to unaffordable planes, cramped buses

Objectives: Objectives MPR Rating 2. Foster healthy, safe and inclusive communities Low carbon = health & safety security 7. Promote sustainable production and consumption Low carbon = food security 8. Protect and enhance natural environments Low carbon = environmental security 9. Advance climate change mitigation and adaptation Trains = CO2 mitigation (over planes) 10. Build resilience to shocks Low carbon = transport security Infrastructure Victoria Needs:

Need 18. Transition to lower carbon energy supply and use NWRA believes Infrastructure Victoria cannot ignore its own Principles, Objectives and Needs criteria. NWRA research indicates trains are superior to planes when it comes to per person GHG/CO2 emissions. Data from the Transport Accident Commission indicates that 50% of cars are single-person occupancy, suggesting that cars, both in number and frequency, are also large per person emitters of CO2e. The Problem: The problem is not just that planes burn a lot of fuel and therefore emit plenty of CO2 per passenger. Just as important are a host of other high-altitude impacts, including vapour trails and tropospheric ozone, that are usually estimated to cause as much warming as the CO2 itself. See comparisons below. Comparative Facts: According to the National Geographic Green Guide: Train travel will halve carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions – compared to taking a plane.

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A key reason is that the diesel train may be a big carbon emitter, but it’s designed to carry a lot of passengers, so the per capita emissions are a lot lower. According to spreadsheet3 data from Camden Council UK (Travelfootprint.org/ Clear Zone Partnership): ID Mode Detail Occupancy Comment ghg (g/km) env. rating 89 RAIL Sprinter: diesel 50% Sprinter diesel multi-unit 17.06 32.37 104 AIR Domestic 50% based on Boeing 737 122.69 87.32 According to the Environmental Science and Technology journal,4 Norwegian and Austrian scientists compared Mode, Load and Specific Climate Impact from Passenger Trips, as follows: ABSTRACT: The climate impact from a long-distance trip can easily vary by a factor of 10 per passenger depending on mode choice, vehicle efficiency, and occupancy. In this paper we compare the specific climate impact of long-distance car travel with coach, train, or air trips. We account for both, CO2 emissions and short-lived climate forcers. This particularly affects the ranking of aircraft’s climate impact relative to other modes. We calculate the specific impact for the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP), considering time horizons between 20 and 100 years, and compare with results accounting only for CO2 emissions. The car’s fuel efficiency and occupancy are central to whether the impact from a trip is as high as from air travel or as low as from train travel. These results can be used for carbon offsetting schemes, mode choice and transportation planning for climate mitigation.

Figure 1 (above). Specific climate impact across metrics for long-distance travel at 100% occupancy (left) and average occupancy (right) with various transport modes. Trains cover electric and diesel trains. Aircraft span higher, medium or lower fuel efficiency, either with no contrails and cirrus clouds (c/c) or with 50% the global average impact value. The left/right whisker indicates one standard deviation uncertainty for the lower/upper variant.

3 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TAMZLvUrMlxAR4RdDOs928-yoU5RxMrDKIb8tXuOKsc/edit?hl=en_GB#gid=0 4 Environmental Science and Technology journal, June 13, 2013, 47 (14), pp 7608–7614, at: http://pubs.acs.org/action/doSearch?AllField=mode%2C+load&type=within&publication=40025991 9

The NWRA emphasises that trains are the preferred mode (over cramped buses or unaffordable planes). Future Transport Security Victoria cannot ignore the role rail will play in future low emissions public transport. When cheap energy comes to an end, rail will be the best way of future-proofing Victoria’s economy, especially connecting the many communities in the Mildura region, along the Mildura rail corridor / Mallee. GHG/CO2 Emissions – Mildura Air Transport According to the 2014-15 Mildura Airport Pty Ltd (MAPL) Annual Report, there were 208,366 passenger (pax) movements, with 320,000 passenger movements mooted by 2020, based on maintaining an average of 5% pa growth with high and low forecasts. In MAPL’s 2010 Master Plan, The Carbon Picture was quoted as: “Aviation is considered to increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG’s) in the atmosphere contributing to global warming.” Airline operators: QantasLink, Regional Express (REX) and Virgin. Greenhouse gas emissions per passenger kilometre – averaged emissions Representative figures for CO2 emissions are provided by LIPASTO's survey of average direct emissions (not accounting for high-altitude radiative effects) of airliners expressed as CO2 and CO2e (equivalent) per passenger kilometre: Domestic, short distance, less than 463 km: 257 g/km CO2 or 259 g/km CO2e Domestic, long distance, greater than 463 km: 177 g/km CO2 or 178 g/km CO2e As the Mildura-Melbourne distance by air is 475km, the g/km CO2e is averaged to: 200 g/km CO2e. Air transport types

Melbourne Flights/wk5

Sydney Flights/wk

Adelaide Flights/wk

Broken Hill Flights/wk

Total kms/wk CO2e/km/wk CO2e g/wk

Dash 8 400 42x475=19,950k 19,950k 19,950x122.69 2,447,665.50g

Saab 340 21x475=9,975k 7x838=5,866k 7x334=2,338k 7x255=1,785k 19,964k 19,964x122.69 2,449,383.16g

E-jet ERJ 190 7x475=3,325k 3,325k 3,325x122.69 407,944.25g Return flights Totals 70x2=140 7x2=14 7x2=14 7x2=14 43,239x2=86,478k 86,478x122.69 10,609,985.82g

GHG/CO2 Emissions – Mildura-Melbourne Rail Rail transport types Distance

Mildura to Melbourne

Services per day

Services per wk

Average speed

Average time

CO2e/km/wk CO2e g/wk

Vlocity DMU/equivalent 604km 2 (4) 28 130km/h 5-6hrs 60,000gx4x7 1,680,000.00g N-set (being phased out) 604km 2 (4) 28 90km/h 8-10hrs 70,000gx4x7 1,960,000.00g It is accepted that the number of flights in and out of Mildura Airport would diminish with the competition from rail, thus reducing the CO2e grams per kilometre per capita. The evidence is clear: rail is far superior to air as a travel mode when both are compared on the basis of CO2e emissions.

5 See Appendix 7.

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MILDURA’S DEMOGRAPHIC AND GEOGRAPHIC CASE Population and Growth

Mildura is among the highest (top four) per capita growth regions in the State of Victoria, with the highest building approvals per capita in Victoria. The Mildura region (including Wentworth on the NSW side of the river – see Figure 2.3 below) has a burgeoning population – 60,500, and is a hub to a tri-state catchment population of 130,000. Our population growth has been in the top 4 in the state and region for ten years and will continue for another ten years.

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Compare this with the populations of towns who have had their trains restored: Echuca: population 12,358; Bairnsdale: population 11,500; Ararat: population 7,200; and Maryborough: population 7,990 (having the Vlocity train extended from Ballarat in 2010). (Ref Appendix 3, p.31.) NWRA question: Why should Mildura, which easily meets Matthew Guy’s 50,000 population qualification, be denied a passenger train?

Figure 2.3

Reference Mildura Development Corporation

This growth is expected to continue and a MRCC-commissioned report has even mooted that Mildura is set to equal Ballarat’s 2001 population in 20 years – see Figure 2.8 below.

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This is significant in the context of re-instating its direct passenger train service (via Ballarat/Maryborough) and especially after other much smaller centres (e.g. Ararat, Bairnsdale, Echuca, Maryborough) have had their passenger train restored - see table: -

Community Date Train Returned

Population Served Service Provided

Ararat 11 July 2004 7,200 3 trains daily

- and Beaufort 1,100

Bairnsdale 3 May 2004 11,500

Echuca 12,358 3 trains daily

- and Elmore 900

Maryborough 2010 7,990

- and Creswick 2,500

Mildura Pending 53,499

- and St Arnaud 2,300

- and Ouyen 1,400

(Ref Report by Prof Bill Russell, Appendix 4, p.26)

Geographic Isolation Mildura is even defying the 150km Melbourne-centric Victorian population trend: -

Having lost its passenger train in 1993, Mildura has endured 23 years as the state’s most isolated city. Strategically, Mildura is remote and geographically isolated yet has the population catchment advantage of being a tri-state hub. To counter this isolation and to ensure its continued economic viability in the face of anticipated escalating fuel costs, Mildura needs freight and passenger rail transport connectivity, initially to Victorian ports and capital city, but eventually, to all national ports and capital cities via the national network.

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Social Access and Equity Mildura’s population is too big and growing, and its demographic profile too needy (see Mildura Social Indicators 2012, attachment) and Population Aged 60+ graphic, below) to keep discriminating against it by not providing the public transport access that other much smaller towns enjoy – especially by insisting that we use the deeply unpopular and inappropriate buses.

Currently our senior citizens are faced with two options if they wish to travel by public transport to Melbourne other than by air; a combined bus and trains unassisted luggage transfer trip via Swan Hill and Bendigo leaving 4.05 am and arriving 11.31 am, or a long bus trip via Donald, Maryborough and Ballarat where a change is made to a train. This last service departs Mildura at 21.45 and arrives in Melbourne at 11.35 on week days with different times at weekends. Seniors receive a free return train trip once a year. Mildura’s seniors are denied access to this when they

are unable to manage the 3 hour bus trip each way to Swan Hill. Many seniors and even the mildly disabled are unable to access the toilet facilities on bus or plane. The ability for old joints to move safely 14

around, rather than being confined in a seat until the vehicle stops, means that train travel, which gives more flexibility of movement at any time, would be used by this group of citizens. Mildura has a right to adequate public transport and to the pro rata public transport subsidy that is enjoyed by other Victorians, especially those in Melbourne and closer regional centres. Our feedback is overwhelmingly that The People of Greater Mildura want, need and will use their train, provided it is of a good standard and frequency of service, and we should add that the feedback is equally vehement that buses are not acceptable. MILDURA’S ECONOMIC CASE

Source: Mildura Development Corporation, 2010

A large part of Mildura’s significant contribution to the Food Bowl of our nation, and of our GRP, has been agriculture. However, hospitality and retail, when combined, make up a significant and growing employer group, outstripping even agriculture. As these industries are, in turn, very reliant on tourism, Mildura must future-proof itself by diversifying its transport options into rail.

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Note the Changes in Employment, Mallee 1986-2006 (DPCD), below, indicating Retail & Hospitality overtaking Agriculture. This is significant as our research indicates that fuel prices are increasing which means that our Transport Security and therefore our economy – especially Tourism, that is vital to our Hospitality (food/beverages/accommodation/entertainment) and Retail sectors – is threatened.

Tourism Tourism is essential for the two largest industries outside agriculture: retail and hospitality (the latter consists of beverage, restaurant, accommodation and entertainment industries) and are (combined) the biggest employers in our region. Tourism and these dependent industries would benefit hugely from a direct and efficient passenger train service. It must be stated that Mildura’s

economy and especially its tourism industry would be greatly enhanced by the standardisation of the rail gauge and the line’s connection to the national rail network. Hospitality and Retail The Hospitality (food, beverages, accommodation, entertainment) and Retail sectors are very dependent on tourism, in addition to a steadily growing local population and a tri-state catchment of 130,000. Tourism, in turn, is extremely dependent on transport which is again very sensitive to the cost of fuel. This is why Mildura’s economy is directly linked to its Transport Security, and why rail is an essential mode of transport for its future prosperity. Mildura must diversify into passenger rail to avoid an economic downturn in the tourism dependent industries, due to the anticipated rise in the cost of carbon and the peak Oil effect. Mildura’s Public Transport Case Mildura argues that the return of passenger train services will see the same increasing levels of patronage as those being experienced across the state, and around the world. Myth: Public transport is not viable until there is demand for it. Fact: Service provision anticipates demand, and does not wait for demand that will not appear while there is no confidence in the system. Ultimately, it is up to the planners and managers of the system what level of service is provided. Where the emphasis is on making public transport attractive and competitive with cars, it will be well-patronised. As with the Vinelander, where the emphasis was on maintaining barely adequate services, with no effort to upgrade the rolling stock, 'lack of demand' was the perfect ready-made excuse.

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Public Transport Trends – Global Eurostar has experienced surging demand with ticket sales up 25 per cent, driven by demand from the UK regions and the rising cost of flying. “Global passenger Rail Market: 2010-2015-Market Size, Market Share and Growth Forecast” report comes in handy for those who are seeking to have updated information on the state of the global passenger rail market. According to this report- Global passenger rail market has grown at a CAGR 9.1% by value in last 5 years (2004-2009) and was expected to reach $ 39.1 billion by 2015. (Ref. Bibliography, web sites, p.23.) Public Transport Trends – State (Melbourne) MELBOURNE commuters have crammed on to public transport in record numbers, with recorded trips hitting 450 million in 2007-2008. Sky-rocketing petrol prices and tightening family budgets have led to 32 million more journeys or a 7.7 per cent increase in the past year, figures released by the State Government show. The biggest rise has been recorded on the trains, which continue to be the most popular form of public transport, despite the cramped conditions. Herald Sun, August 20, 2008. Public Transport Trends – State (Regional) The Age on June 6 2009: -

Regional rail services are booming, with recent growth in passenger numbers the greatest in 60 years.

The Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Traralgon lines have all experienced growth of more than 18 per cent patronage.

For three years in a row patronage across V/Line services has grown by more than 15 per cent a year. (Ref. Appendix 1, p.24).

Public Transport Subsidy Australian Bureau of Statistics surveys of household expenditures have found that the upper 20 per cent income group spend about three to four times more on public transport than the lower 20 per cent income group, probably because most of the present public transport infrastructure is located in high-income inner and middle metropolitan suburbs and most public transport trips are made into the central business district by higher income managerial and office workers. In other words, the subsidies state governments provide to public transport are going mainly to higher income groups, whereas other expenditures on education and health are much more equitably based. There is also the social inequity of residents in country areas paying taxes to subsidise further increases in huge metropolitan public transport expenditures in Australia, which are already billions per year. As a large, growing Regional Service Centre, Mildura can expect a significant State Government public transport subsidy, esp. as there is a deficit owed the Mildura region for 23 years of unpopular and therefore largely unsupported bus transport. The Mildura region’s population is too big and growing (currently over 65,000 with a tri-state catchment of 130,000), and its demographic profile too needy to keep discriminating against it by not providing the public rail transport access and equity that other much smaller towns enjoy – especially by insisting that we use the deeply unpopular/cramped/inappropriate buses.

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Mildura Region Patronage Apart from the significantly increased public patronage from a large tri-state regional hub, as indicated above, the NWRA believes there are specific forms of patronage that need to be singled out as having particular importance and potential for Mildura. These include: - Tourism Mildura’s tourism industry is significant, is directly linked to the health of the region’s economy, and includes the following important components: -

1 Eco-Tourism

As in Europe and other parts of the world, there is a rapidly growing trend towards eco-tourism, and Mildura is in an excellent position to take advantage of this. Mildura has the advantage of being the gateway to the outback as it is surrounded by national parks, e.g. Mungo National Park. Hattah-Kulkyne National Park, Murray-Sunset National Park, the newly created Murray River National Parks and the fabulous Murray River itself. The latter attracts thousands of people to the several water events held during the year, plus those interested in eco-tourism such as kayaking, swimming, fishing, photography and camping.

2 Events and Cultural Tourism

Mildura’s tourist appeal is greatly enhanced by its full calendar of festivals, events and cultural heritage activities: -

• Murray River International Music Festival, Mildura Wentworth Arts Festival, Mungo Youth Festival, Mildura Writers’ Festival, Mildura Palimpsest, Mildura Country Music Festival, Mildura Jazz Food and Wine, Australian Alternative Varieties Wine Show, Country Week Cricket, Mildura Grand Slam Tennis International, Mardi Gras, and Lunafest to name some of them.

• Art Galleries and Performing Arts Theatres – as Mildura has a vibrant arts community there are many galleries and performing arts centres providing on-going entertainment.

• Hospitality, food and wines - including Stefano’s Restaurant. • History and Heritage - the desert-to-oasis story of the Mildura irrigation settlement

Instigated by Ben and George Chaffey, World Wars 1 & 2 Soldier Settlements such as Millewa, Red Cliffs and Birdwoodton.

• Inter-State Gateway - as Mildura is at the junction of three states, it is also possible to take day trips to the world-renowned Willandra Lakes and Lake Mungo National Parks and the historic Port of Wentworth in NSW, and Renmark in South Australia. Such access would be facilitated by a special car transport carriage/carriages being added to the Mildura passenger train, enabling passengers to bring their cars. This would make Mildura a jumping off place for distant tourism sites in outback New South Wales, e.g. Broken Hill, Mootwingee and White Cliffs.

• The tourism aspect could be developed by promoting a great railway journeys theme, naming the train, and providing a 25 minutes stop at Maryborough in which travellers could enjoy the restored station precincts, stretch their legs and have photo opportunities. Other towns of interest along the line could perhaps be added to the theme.

3 Baby-Boomer / Grey Tourism

A politically and economically powerful demographic is the post Second World War baby boomer cohort (aged 45-62), which is either retired or about to enter retirement. A good

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proportion of this group is highly educated, wealthy and driven by lifestyle issues (tree and sea change, arts and culture, food and wine, history and heritage), and will be increasingly inclined towards greener rail tourism.

4. Pink Dollar

The cultural, lifestyle and food-based tourism that is so important to Mildura, is a great attraction for this cashed-up, time and leisure rich, LGBTIQ community.

5. Weather and Solar Energy The Riviera climate which Mildura is so famous for is a tremendous draw-card as it entices tourists made up of families, singles, couples and seniors, all of whom would be attracted to use a passenger train with motorail carriages for cars. Mildura is mooted to become one of Victoria’s ‘Solar Cities’ and this will be a great draw card in the future.

Labour Market While seasonal workers are no longer in the demand they once were in more labour-intensive harvest times, immigrants and especially backpackers form the backbone of the current labour markets in Sunraysia and are more likely to travel by rail. Currently, many of these people are locked out of opportunities to work in the area, deterred by lack of cheap, public transport. Many come from countries where public transport is efficient, frequent and inexpensive. (Ref Appendix 5, p.32.) Backpacker / Youth / Student Market Young travellers including students and backpackers commuting between Melbourne and Mildura (and places in between, especially Ballarat schools and University) represent a growing market for rail transport, expected to burgeon as fuel costs escalate. School trips and excursions to Melbourne, so important to addressing Mildura’s comparative isolation, once were, and could be again, cheaper, safer and more frequent by train. The same applies from Melbourne to Mildura. Many schools used to run excursions to Hattah/Kulkyne National Park and to Mildura itself. Today they are deterred by being forced to come by bus but would most certainly return to train travel should it become available. La Trobe University, Mildura Campus coordinates an international study program involving North American students, called Edge of the Outback, in which 2 groups of 20 students are immersed into the Australian outback in a course-accredited photographic assignment. The students, with international luggage, intensely dislike the unassisted luggage transfers in the bus / train journey currently available through Swan Hill. The university is exploring other avenues of travel and would, together with the North American students, applaud the reintroduction of a passenger train direct to Mildura. Students studying at Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne schools or universities are likely to travel by rail instead of by car or air, especially with the more direct CBD access offered. Aged, Ill and Disabled Pensioners, the aged (over 65) and the disabled are a growing group in our community with special needs that would be well served by an affordable, accessible and efficient passenger train. Seniors receive a free return train trip once a year. See Social Access and Equity, p.12 and the MRCC Social Indicators link, p.23. Business Class While it is true the business class may be able to afford the anticipated hikes in air transport costs, an overnight sleeper incorporating regional food and wine, conference, computer and cinema facilities, would be a very attractive option – especially as passengers would arrive for breakfast refreshed by sleeper/shower facilities, complete their business, and then be able to take an express daytime XPT/Vlocity back to Mildura. They would have been absent from their business for only one day.

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Mildura’s Transport Security Mildura’s Transport Dependent Economy The Mildura region is strategically located at the junction of Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia. It is connected to the rest of Australia and indeed the world through major road and air infrastructure, with rail terminating at Mildura and being currently utilised only for freight. As agricultural production, mining and manufactured goods of all kinds continue to expand, so does the transportation and distribution industry and networks that take these products to market. However, while Mildura has its freight avenues covered by all modes of transport - rail, road and air (although rail needs to increase its share of freight transport, to be standardised and connected north to the national rail network) - passenger transport is carried by only two modes: road and air. This leaves isolated Mildura and its tourist-dependent economy vulnerable in the likely event that fuel prices escalate in the next five years Threats to Mildura’s Transport Security: Carbon Tax and Peak Oil Because of Sunraysia’s isolation and dependence on transport, Mildura’s Transport Security and therefore its economy is threatened by escalating fuel costs, driven by two future scenarios: - 1. The price of carbon emissions as part of an ETS / CPRS, and; 2. Increasing fuel costs due to Peak Oil – where demand for fossil fuels outstrips supply.

Mildura argues that any feasibility study must take these factors into account as they will significantly impact the local economy, especially making private transport (road and particularly air) far less affordable. Future-Proofing Mildura’s Economy by Diversifying its Transport Modes Mildura needs to urgently future-proof itself by establishing a rail life-line for both passengers and freight. Combined into a package, a rail-based public transport and freight system will provide Mildura with economic certainty into the future. Mildura’s Environmental Case Mildura’s Climate The Mildura region is renowned for its Mediterranean climate. It experiences 122 clear days each year, and 77 days (on average) when the temperature exceeds 30 degrees Celsius. This is a proven and significant part of its tourism appeal, see Holiday and Leisure %, below:-

Source: Mildura Tourism

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Mildura’s Carbon Footprint With little heavy industry and a warm climate, air and road transport together with air conditioning emissions would be a substantial proportion of Mildura’s footprint. According to its website the Mildura Airport sees over 80 flights a week into and out of Mildura dumping unquantifiable loads (but significant on a per passenger ratio) of CO2 directly into the upper atmosphere. Daily flights to Melbourne include 3 x Qantas trips (averaged) with 50 seats, 3 x Rex flights with 34 seats and 1 x Virgin Blue flight with 78/104 seats. Both air and road transport emissions, when quantified, have rail 75-90% lower (or up to 10 times cleaner) in carbon emissions per passenger km than air transport. See pages 8-10 above for specific data. Environmental Sustainability Transport systems are major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG), responsible for 30% of world energy-related GHG emissions, with about three quarters coming from road vehicles. Private road transport (both cars and trucks carrying freight) and air transport are major contributors to carbon pollution, while lack of access to public rail transport places a huge burden on isolated communities. Mildura, with its flat topography, is ideally suited to an integrated transport system that is environmentally sustainable. This would include local, district, regional and state wide transport modes, integrated through inter-modal transport hubs, as follows: -

• Walking and cycling (on designated paths) at a local level, involving shorter distances; • Hybrid diesel-electric or solar-electric vehicles (taxis, buses and light rail) for district and intra-

region medium distance travel; • Hybrid diesel-electric (biodiesel) trains for inter-regional and state wide travel.

It is particularly desirable for these modes of transport to operate together and that cyclists, for example can take their bicycles on board the train. This would significantly reduce the greenhouse gas emissions, especially of road transport. That Victoria needs to curb its greenhouse gas emissions, especially in road and air transport, is demonstrated by the following Department of Climate Change graphs: -

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The need to shift away from private transport is also reflected in the road and air transport emissions trends indicated in the Australian Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics table: Transport: greenhouse gas (CO2e - carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions, by transport mode) (In gigagrams of CO2 equivalent) Financial year Motor Vehicles Rail (non–electric) Maritime Aviation Total 1989–90 53 184 1 741 2 294 2 564 59 783 1990–91 52 905 1 732 2 152 3 140 59 929 1991–92 53 280 1 685 2 201 3 392 60 557 1992–93 54 578 1 658 2 196 3 552 61 984 1993–94 55 713 1 792 2 240 3 706 63 450 1994–95 58 156 1 743 2 471 4 273 66 643 1995–96 59 744 1 696 2 273 4 638 68 351 1996–97 60 424 1 729 2 265 4 837 69 255 1997–98 62 045 1 757 2 269 4 845 70 917 1998–99 63 812 1 808 2 131 4 780 72 531 1999–00 65 286 1 874 2 116 4 998 74 274 2000–01 65 591 1 840 2 021 5 135 74 587 2001–02 68 484 1 926 2 079 4 725 77 215 2002–03 69 742 1 977 2 056 5 039 78 813 2003–04 73 189 2 016 2 054 5 581 82 841 Source: BTRE (2006c), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections to 2020.

Apart from environmental concerns, the ascendency of rail is being driven by escalating fuel prices, brought about by two main factors: global warming and the associated carbon tax, and Peak Oil – where demand for fossil fuels outstrips supply. The NWRA argues that any feasibility study must take these factors into account as they will significantly impact the local Mildura economy, especially making private transport (road and particularly air) unaffordable. Mildura needs to future-proof itself by establishing a

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rail life-line for both passengers and freight. Combined into a package, a rail-based public transport and freight system will provide Mildura with economic certainty into the future. Mildura’s Infrastructure Needs Further Rail Upgrades to Handle Speeds of 130-160kph. To maximise public patronage there must be an efficient public transport system, including further rail upgrades to 21-25 tonne axle-loading (TAL) to enable 130kph average speeds, eventually enabling speeds of up to 160km/h through XPT or Vlocity rolling stock (below), without the need for grade separation.

Upgrades of Stations, Crossings and Signalling For rail to be competitive and attractive, stations and platforms on the Maryborough to Mildura line need to be renovated, as well as signalling, train radio, bridges, culverts and crossings upgraded for safety. Rolling stock / rail cars providing conference facilities, on-line computer access, restaurant, and cinema entertainment should be part of the mix of services provided - if patronage is to be attracted. Services and Frequency of Services The NWRA supports the reinstatement of passenger services to Mildura, which both include Ballarat and Maryborough (the latter city having had Vlocity services instated in 2010). Melbourne - Ballarat - Maryborough - Ouyen – Mildura. This includes broad/standard gauge transfers NB. Please note that the Swan Hill – Bendigo coach/rail option is NOT supported, as it involves too many transfers and a very unpopular, cramped – and, for many inaccessible – coach connection. Anticipated timetabled services would be six per week, proceeding to one XPT / Vlocity service and one two-way express (limited stops) Melbourne to Mildura daily. Future services may include an overnight sleeper, stopping at all stations (Mildura-Melbourne), subject to demand and rolling stock.

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Gauge Standardisation and Connection to the National Rail Network As one of the leading per capita growth cities in the State of Victoria, Mildura needs to be connected, both to Melbourne and southern ports, and to transnational cities and ports via the national rail network. This requires the rail gauge to be standardised, not only for the growth of passenger services – especially for tourism - but also closely coordinated with the Government’s Regional Rail Freight Network Program, for the most effective and efficient means of transporting people and goods into and out of the Sunraysia region. See Mildura Development Corporation 2014 Report on the Murray Basin Rail Project, attached. Passenger and Freight Rail Co-Considerations The return of passenger services to the Sunraysia region must be developed in tandem with rail freight needs to avoid costly revisitations and duplications. It would also defray costs from passenger to rail. The preferred option for shipping freight in the context of global heating (carbon tax) and Peak Oil will be by rail. The Rail Freight Alliance has already argued strongly that even current reliance on road transport - of the annual wheat harvest for example - will simply congest Melbourne’s roads into ports to the point of deadlock. Extensive mineral sands deposits have been and are being discovered on both sides of the Murray River in the Sunraysia region. As with wheat, these sands need to be conveyed to ports and cities and it is not a viable option to congest our major roads with heavy trucks, B-doubles and road trains. The Mildura region is strategically located at the junction of three states, which means it is already connected to the rest of Australia through major road and air infrastructure and to a lesser degree, rail. It is vital that the inter-state Auslink rail from Melbourne to Mildura is continued on to Pooncarie and is standardised to connect up to the India Pacific rail line and also from Melbourne to Sydney and Adelaide to Darwin creating an Australia-wide network. The Mildura Development Corporation recommends this connection take place at Sayers Lake near Pooncarie, north east of Wentworth as it would enable the extensive mineral sands deposits in the Sayers Lake vicinity to be transported south through Victoria. Passenger needs must be seen in tandem with rail freight needs. As agricultural production, mineral resources and manufactured goods of all kinds continue to expand, so the transportation and distribution industry, and networks that take these products to market must also expand. Mildura cannot be excluded from a vital Australia-wide rail network. Likewise, as tourism expands, so must the transportation networks to support the growth. The freight rail service to Melbourne currently operates three times per week. Now that the track structure is being upgraded to create a faster more reliable rail link to Melbourne, trains will run at speeds of 80+ km/h, reducing travel time from 14 hours to 10 hours, although Prof Bill Russell suggests faster speeds are possible that bring the travel time down to 8 hours (Ref Appendix 4 pp.28-31). The up-grade has factored in the future conversion of the track to standard gauge. All that is required now is complete conversion of the track and spurs to standard gauge and to factor-in double stacking of containers. This will ensure competitive leasing to private providers and make usage more attractive as well as promoting Victoria as a green transport state. Mention has been made of the removal of the freight centre from the City of Mildura and the creation of a freight transport hub at Thurla. Whatever happens, all transport plans must have the passenger rail station remaining in the centre of the city of Mildura, preferably as a multi-modal transport hub (i.e. bicycles, taxis, trams/buses, train). Conclusion As any study of Mildura’s/Sunraysia’s growth momentum would indicate, the region has already become a unique – and seemingly unstoppable - tri-state economic hub that will assure the commercial viability of resuming a passenger rail service. Future scenarios of escalating energy costs (carbon tax and Peak Oil) make it an economic imperative for the geographically isolated cross-border region of Sunraysia to have direct passenger rail connectivity to Melbourne, and eventually, through standardisation of the line, to the national Australian rail network (from port-to-port for freight and city-to-city for passengers).

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References Web sites:- Public Transport Victoria – Murray Basin Rail Project https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/projects/rail-projects/murray-basin-rail-project/ Victorian Council of Social Service http://vcoss.org.au/state-budget-submission-2016-17/expand-peoples-transport-options/ PDFs:- Mildura Development Corporation 2014 Report – Murray Basin Rail Project 2014_08_29 MDC Submission - Murray Basin Freight Study.pdf Department of Transport http://www4.transport.vic.gov.au/vtp/pdfs/vtp-06-priority2.pdf Mildura Rural City Council - Social Indicators Report Mildura-Social-Indicators-Report-2012.pdf Regional Train Line Usage - Performance measures are based on comparisons between the timetable operators provide to passengers one or more days before the service is due to operate (known as the 'Daily Timetable') and the actual outcomes of services on the day. The Daily Timetable reflects expected changes to scheduled services to account for projects, track maintenance, road works, special events and other planned service alterations. The performance measures do not reflect the performance of replacement services (e.g. replacement buses and coaches) due to the technical and operational challenges associated with operating and monitoring these services. Source: https://www.ptv.vic.gov.au/about-ptv/ptv-data-and-reports/daily-operational-performance-reports/

Recent V/Line Regional Train Performance

Daily performance for % services delivered % services on-time at destination

Sunday, 23 October 2016 100.0% 91.3%

Saturday, 22 October 2016 98.3% 86.6%

Friday, 21 October 2016 95.0% 81.5%

Thursday, 20 October 2016 99.6% 90.2%

Wednesday, 19 October 2016 99.6% 89.5%

Tuesday, 18 October 2016 99.6% 91.8%

Monday, 17 October 2016 98.4% 92.4%

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Appendices Appendix 1: Regional Rail Travel is Booming

Regional rail travel booming, despite delays

Stephanie Sinclair-Robb going home to Sunbury on a Bendigo V/Line train. Photo: Wayne Taylor

Jason Dowling and Natalie Puchalski, The Age June 6, 2009

REGIONAL rail services — once the pariah of Victoria's public transport network— have undergone a renaissance and are booming, with recent growth in passenger numbers the greatest in 60 years. The Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Traralgon lines have all had growth of more than 18 per cent numbers in the 12 months to March this year. For three years in a row patronage across V/Line services has grown by more than 15 per cent a year. V/Line spokesman Daniel Moloney said the first big increases were detected when fares were cut by 20 per cent on average on regional rail services in March 2007. "We saw our first spike in patronage then, when people saw the trains were a lot cheaper than driving," he said. Public Transport Minister Lynne Kosky told The Age the regional rail services have "not only been an incredible success for public transport, it has actually helped with the growth of the regions — given people a whole lot of choices about where they live and work". Not so long ago regional rail, particularly the "fast rail" project to upgrade rail services to Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong and Traralgon, was a thorn in the side of the government. Massive cost blow-outs and time delays for the project were criticised by the Victorian Auditor-General's office. But Ms Kosky said few today would argue that the project "was a waste of money". Bendigo Mayor Kevin Gibbins said the importance and popularity of the regional rail services cannot be overstated. "It is very important. We are probably the largest city located in central Victoria … the upgrading of the railway has allowed increased patronage, but also a much more pleasant trip to Melbourne from Bendigo," he said. He said it was not just people travelling to work that had embraced the train service. "Country people love the footy and it provides the opportunity to go down to Melbourne and get off at Southern Cross (Station) for the football at Etihad Stadium," he said.

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Rod Drysdale, 53, lives in Woodend and commutes to work in the CBD on the Bendigo V/Line trains daily. He is satisfied with the service but sees a big difference when he reaches the city. "(V/Line) is pretty good until you get into the edges of the suburbs, where the normal trains take precedence," he said. Other passengers, such as 20-year-old Stephanie Sinclair-Robb from Sunbury, are not so pleased with their regional train experience. "It's horrible. The trains are never on time — you're either 10 minutes late or the train just stops for no reason and it just won't go anywhere, and you're sitting there for about half an hour doing nothing," she said. A new $4.3 billion regional rail link was recently backed by the State and Federal Government's to separate regional and suburban services coming into Melbourne from the west with a new regional rail track. Punctuality figures for the regional services back the need for the new line. As patronage and services increased on regional lines over recent years — punctuality declined. Opposition transport spokesman Terry Mulder said Victoria's rural trains "continue to run disastrously late or they fail to show up at all under John Brumby and Minister for Public Transport Lynne Kosky". "V/Line failed to meet its monthly timekeeping target on any short or long distance train line in April 2009," he said. Peak-hour trains are also becoming overcrowded. New V/Line carriages are being manufactured to help meet growing demand. Despite problems with the service, commuters such as Nick Casey, 36, won't be travelling by car any time soon from his home in Gisborne. "It's a mix of the cost of petrol, convenience of the V/Line service and where I can pick it up that makes it less stress and hassle," he said, "and it's better than Connex." Regional train travel continues to break records V-Line - 28-Apr-2008

Regional train travel reached a new 60-year record in March with more than 950,000 train passenger trips made across country Victoria. The record month comes despite there being three public holidays in March when typically fewer commuters travel. In March this year, 951,309 passenger trips were made on V/Line trains – about 13,000 more than the previous record of August 2007. V/Line CEO Rob Barnett said that with these strong patronage results in March, the year-to-date patronage increase is at 24 per cent across the State. “This March was our busiest month in more than 60 years,” he said. “While passenger numbers fluctuate from month to month, we expect steady increases throughout the year. “It’s a year since the State Government reduced fares by around 20 per cent, and there is a near 6 per cent increase when March 07 and March 08 is compared. “That tells us that it’s not just cheap train travel that’s attracting more people, with other factors likely to be rising petrol prices, ease of train use versus the car during peak periods, and the improvements to train services across the state.” Mr Barnett said the unprecedented growth of the past two years had resulted in some particularly busy peak trains on most V/Line corridors. “Every train is in full use during the peak periods, so we’ve carefully monitored the conductor reports coming in from each service and have manoeuvred the fleet to best cater for the needs of each service. “That said we still have to manage our growth during the peaks, so the Government’s purchase of an extra 22 Vlocity carriages will be a welcome addition to the fleet and will help us target those few busy trains on each line that need extra seats. “The good news is that the first of these new carriages is expected to roll into service from July this year,

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with an additional carriage added each month after that,” Mr Barnett said. Bairnsdale and Sale saw the biggest increase of 49.4 per cent, followed by Albury / Wodonga (up 28.9 per cent), Echuca (up 22.2 per cent) and Shepparton (up 20.1 per cent). Ballarat (up nine per cent) and Ararat (up 16.2 per cent) saw record months in March, as did Bendigo (up 8.3 per cent). While Geelong and Warrnambool patronage only saw modest increases of 0.4 per cent and 1.9 per cent respectively, both areas also broke records for the number of train travellers. Traralgon also saw a modest increase of four per cent for March to be the third busiest month on record. The Seymour line was the only area to see a decline (down 29.3 per cent), due to V/Line peak trains no longer stopping at Craigieburn after Connex extended services to that area. Adjusting (normalising) the Seymour line figures to account for services no longer stopping at Craigieburn actually shows a patronage increase of 11 per cent for March. The year-to-date patronage growth data rises from 24 to 26 per cent when normalised. Number of train passenger trips* made on each line in March:

* Figures for long distance trains to Warrnambool, Ararat, Swan Hill, Echuca, Albury / Wodonga, Shepparton and Bairnsdale / Sale may include passengers who disembark at early stops along the line (eg. Warrnambool train figures may include Geelong passengers). Travel on V/Line coaches also increased 11.4 per cent across the state from 74,384 passenger trips in March 2007 to 82,837 in March this year to become the third busiest coach month on record. One of the biggest increases in coach use was between Swan Hill and Mildura which grew 30.9 per cent from 2,864 passenger trips in March 2007 to 3,749 in March 2008.

V/Line train patronage on the Ballarat line: Years 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Annual patronage (millions) 3.1m 3.21m 3.28m 3.17m 3.36m Source: V/Line 2014-15 Annual Report

NWRA Comment: The Mildura corridor from Maryborough is being denied this same strong growth. 28

Appendix 2: Reining in Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Sinclair Knight Mertz

The Victorian Government in Australia is committed to a 2050 greenhouse gas emissions target of a reduction by 60% compared with 2000 levels, This is against a ‘business as usual’ case of emissions increasing by roughly 60% of 2000 levels over the same time period.

A study into the potential for Victoria to achieve its greenhouse gas emissions reduction target has shown that there is considerable potential to reduce the State’s emissions and that abatement opportunities are available across all sectors of the economy. It also found that imposition of a price for carbon through introduction of an emissions trading scheme, would not, by itself, be sufficient to achieve the 2050 emissions reduction target. Importantly, the study demonstrated that the biggest reductions (such as carbon capture and storage) come at a high economic cost and require ‘fast-tracked’ implementation. The Victorian Government commissioned the project, which was undertaken by SKM and management consultancy, The Nous Group (Nous). The study was supported by an independent expert panel and a steering group comprising representatives of various State government agencies The final report, Understanding the potential to reduce Victoria’s greenhouse gas emissions, is expected to be an important input into the development of Victoria’s new Climate Change Strategy, and was released in 2009.

Conclusion from the Final Report, above, is obviously to move as much road transport to rail as possible!

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Appendix 3: Reintroduction of Passenger Trains on the Mildura Line - Bill Russell 18 May 2009 This paper briefly reviews the feasibility of reintroducing passenger trains on the Mildura line, in light of the recent restoration of the line allowing higher train speeds. The paper considers the issue in comparison to other regional train services reintroduced in Victoria in recent years. Previous Services The Mildura line reached Donald in 1882, Woomelang in 1899, and Mildura in October 1903. The official opening of the line took place on 13 November 1903. The line was extended to Merbein on 4th July 1910. Mildura is 571 rail kilometres from Melbourne via Ballarat; Ballarat is 119 rail km from Melbourne and the rail distance from Ballarat to Mildura is 452 km. For many years, Mildura was served by an overnight train with sleeping cars; from 1957 to 1967, Mildura a day train known as the “Mildura Sunlight” was introduced; this was replaced in 1967 by the reintroduction of overnight services, and these were upgraded as “The Vinelander” in August 1972. The service was withdrawn in September 1993. “The Vinelander” did the distance in 10 ¾ hours, at an average speed of 53 kmh. Rehabilitation Prior to the recent rehabilitation, the poor state of the track resulted in severe speed restrictions – to 50 kph between Ballarat and Dunolly; and 60 kph from Birchip to Mildura. These restrictions effectively precluded the return of passenger services owing to train speed not being comparable with the speed offered by highway coaches. The $90 million track rehabilitation of the Mildura line, completed in 2009, has restored 80 kph to the Mildura line. The possibility of higher speeds invites reconsideration of the feasibility of a passenger train service. Comparison with other V/Line long distance Services V/line operates several types of country passenger services:

• Commuter trains to non-electrified areas on the fringes of Melbourne, such as Bacchus Marsh, Kyneton, Seymour, Geelong and Stony Point, provided by Sprinter Trains, or locomotive hauled trains of relatively old rolling stock;

• Regional Fast Rail Services to Ballarat, Bendigo, Geelong and Traralgon provided on high speed track by Vlocity trains capable of 160 kph over significant sections of their journey;

• Long Distance trains to Warrnambool, Swan Hill, Bairnsdale, and Shepparton. These are locomotive hauled and include a buffet car in the consist.

The following table indicates the average speed of these Long Distance services once they have passed the limits of the Regional Fast Rail Upgrade:

Service (Outer leg)

Distance (km) Outer leg

Minutes For outer leg (Best time)

Average Speed of Fastest Service on outer leg

Distance (whole journey)

Duration of Fastest Service from Melb (minutes)

Av Speed (Whole journey)

Geelong-Warrnambool 195 138 84.78 267 193 83

Bendigo-Swan Hill 183 128 85.78 345 259 80

Traralgon-Bairnsdale 117 89 78.88 275 217 76

Ballarat-Mildura (Estimate based on 75 kph average speed)

452 360 75 571 460 75

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It will be noted that the average speed of long distance trains is marginally slower on the inner leg of the journey, due to rail congestion around Melbourne and the increased number of stops that are made. However a net journey time of 460 minutes from Melbourne to Mildura appears feasible compared with the 640 minute schedule that applied with speed restrictions in the service withdrawn in 1993. This is a significant change that warrants consideration. On this basis, allowing a 20 minute stop at Maryborough for tourists to stretch their legs and visit the historic station precinct, an 8 hour train journey from Melbourne to Mildura could be the basis for consideration. Since the withdrawal of the previous train service, “Great Train Journeys” or rail based tourism has become very significant worldwide. This market could be tapped by a suitably promoted (and named) day train. A day train could be provided using existing V/line long distance rolling stock and would not incur the cost of constructing, converting or refurbishing sleeping cars. The following schedule is illustrative of what might be reasonable:

Read Down

AM

Read

Up

TUESDAY

THURS

SAT

SUN

WED

FRI

Melbourne dep 9.10 4.05

Ballarat dep 10.40 2.35

Maryborough arr 11.35 1.40

PM

dep 12.00 1.15

St Arnaud dep 1.00 12.15

Birchip 2.15 11.00

Ouyen 3.45 9.30

Red Cliffs dep 4.55 8.20

Mildura arr 5.15 8.00

AM

In several cases, successful Sprinter or Vlocity services have been extended or are to be extended to reintroduce passenger train services to additional regional cities. The three cases are Echuca, Ararat and Maryborough. While the use of a Vlocity train for the Mildura service could be considered, the absence of on-train catering facilities and the extra space provided by long distance locomotive hauled trains probably counts against this option.

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Reintroduction of Passenger Services on Ararat, Echuca and Maryborough lines Ararat, Echuca, Maryborough and Bairnsdale are all communities that lost passenger train services during the 1990s, and which have since had their services restored. Mildura and Leongatha were two communities that also lost passenger trains but to which the services have not been restored. The following are key aspects: Ararat Train services to Ararat were restored on 11 July 2004 after a gap of seven years. Today there are three trains each way daily Monday to Saturday, and two on Sunday. The train service serves Beaufort and Ararat (as well as connecting coach serves to Wimmera centres). The services are provided by Vlocity trains extended from Ballarat. The population of Ararat (2006) was 7200 and Beaufort 1100.

Bairnsdale Passenger train services from Sale to Bairnsdale were reintroduced on 3rd May 2004. The population served by the reintroduction of this passenger train is Bairnsdale (population) 11500, as well as other coastal and East Gippsland centres served by connecting coaches. The services are provided by V/Line long-distance trains, which include a buffet car in their consist.

Echuca Daily passenger trains to Echuca were reintroduced on 18 February 2007 and are provided by Vlocity trains extended from Bendigo. A total of 18 services weekly are provided, and followed the expenditure of $10 million in track and level crossing upgrades. The train services Echuca (population 12358), Elmore (population 900), as well as connecting road coaches to the Riverina.

Maryborough Train services to Maryborough were reintroduced in 2010, with services provided by Vlocity trains. $50m has been committed to related upgrades including the provision of new train stabling. The communities served will be Maryborough (population 7990) and Creswick (population 2500). Summary of Communities to which Passenger Train Services have been restored:

Community Date Train Returned Population Served Service Provided

Ararat 11 July 2004 7200 3 trains daily

And Beaufort 1100

Bairnsdale 3 May 2004 11500

Echuca 12358 3 trains daily

And Elmore 900

Maryborough Planned 2010 7990

And Creswick 2500

Mildura ? 58499

And St Arnaud 2300

And Ouyen 1400

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Tourist Opportunities

It may be expected that a restored Mildura passenger train would be used both by residents and tourists wishing to visit Mildura and to experience a “great railway journey”. Such trips are widely promoted in all countries, examples being the TranzAlpine express in the South Island of New Zealand, the Sunlander, Indian Pacific and Ghan in Australia and many others. There is no product of this kind currently available in Victoria (other than Puffing Billy and various small ventures, which do not fit this category).

The recent restoration of the Maryborough station provides the opportunity for tourist traveling to and from Mildura to have a mid journey break and to experience and photograph the magnificent restored station, to which Mark Twain, the author of Tom Sawyer and Huckleberry Finn referred when he said that Maryborough was “a railway station with town attached”. The station includes a coffee shop and antiques shop and would make a suitable 25 minute stop. The train journey could provide a useful tourist product as well as access to Mildura and its attractions.

However the point of arrival at Mildura is critically important. The current consultants’ study is intended to involve the removal of the freight centre and better connections between the City of Mildura and the river front, but it is important that the centrally located passenger station, which is within walking distance of the Grand and Mildura Hotels and Deakin Avenue Motels, is not lost in these changes. Many cities in North America, including Niagara Falls, have implemented redevelopments resulting in stations being removed from urban centres and have later regretted these decisions. Prof. Bill Russell The University of Melbourne Appendix 4: The Murray Basin Rail Project6 - V/Line 2015-2016 Annual Report The Murray Basin Rail Project will upgrade Victoria’s rail freight network between Geelong and Mildura to meet increasing demand for rail freight services. Funding for the entire program of works has been approved, with the Victorian Government providing up to $220 million for Stages 1 and 2, and the Commonwealth Government approving funding of up to $220 million for Stages 3 and 4. The project involves standardising and upgrading the 1132 kilometres of rail track including converting track gauge from broad (1600 mm) to standard (1435 mm) and increasing the allowable train axle loading from 19 tonne to 21 tonne, as well as reopening the Maryborough to Ararat corridor. V/Line has completed $40 million of sleeper renewal and upgrade works in the Murray Basin, which will contribute to the full project.

6 https://corporate.V/Line.com.au/getattachment/6ad41cbe-17f6-489c-9fac-d65a1a627131/Annual-Report-2015-16. See also, Attachment 2, Mildura Development Corporation - Murray Basin Rail Project 2014.

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Appendix 5: Transport of Seasonal Labour

Backpackers Backpackers are a principal source of labour for the agricultural industries of the region. Labour has traditionally relied on cheap public transport to travel to inland rural regions like Mildura. From 2017, this need of affordable public transport will apply even more to backpackers due to the Federal Government plan to increase taxes for working holiday makers. Spokesman for the Sunraysia branch of the Victorian Farmers Federation and Red Cliffs wine grape grower, Bill McClumpha, criticised the proposed 19 per cent tax rate for seasonal work as a “rip off,” adding that the decrease from 32.5% would still deter backpackers from choosing to work on Australian farms. Mr McClumpha also slammed the Federal Government’s plan to tax backpackers’ superannuation payments at a rate of 95 per cent. Source: http://www.sunraysiadaily.com.au/story/4193513/increase-still-a-rip-off-mcclumpha/

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Appendix 6: The Case for Decentralisation (1)

The Case for Decentralisation (2)

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Appendix 7:

Melbourne to Mildura Flights (MEL - MQL) There are 4 airlines flying from Melbourne, MEL to Mildura, MQL. Rex Regional Express has 3 flights per day. Eastern Australia has 3 flights per day. Australian Air Express has 3 flights per day. Virgin Australia has 1 flight per day.

Depart: Arrive: Flight Number: Aircraft: Airline: Duration: Days: Terminal:

8:15 9:35 ZL 3656 SF3 Saab Rex Regional Express

1:20 Daily 1

8:35 9:40 QFA 2078 DH4 Dash Eastern Australia

1:05 Daily 4

8:35 9:40 XM* 2078 DH4 Dash Australian Air Express

1:05 Daily 1

10:25 11:30 DJ 1615 E90 jet Virgin Australia

1:05 Daily 1

15:00 16:20 ZL 3682 SF3

Saab

Rex Regional Express

1:20 Daily 1

15:10 16:15 XM* 2084 DH4 Dash Australian Air Express

1:05 Daily 1

15:10 16:15 QFA 2084 DH4 Dash Eastern Australia

1:05 Daily 4

18:25 19:45 ZL 3684 SF3 Saab Rex Regional Express

1:20 Daily 1

18:45 19:50 XM* 2086 DH4 Dash Australian Air Express

1:05 Daily 1

18:45 19:50 QFA 2086 DH4 Dash Eastern Australia

1:05 Daily 4 36

Appendix 8: Advocacy for Increases in Train Services Reintroduction of Train Services to Ararat – Pyrenees Shire Council The reintroduction of rail services from Ararat to Ballarat and Melbourne has had a number of benefits for the local community, which include the following:- The early morning services cater for a number of commuters including employees, professionals, school and university students who travel to Ballarat during the week. There are also examples of residents who commute to Melbourne for work in some cases. The improved public transport connectivity to education and health services in Ballarat and Melbourne now makes Beaufort a desirable place to live for retirees. Council has undertaken residential subdivision development at Correa Park Beaufort and commenced sales in 2013. Stage three of six is currently being developed with over thirty blocks now sold, seven expressions of interest in the next stage (19 blocks) and approximately 23 dwellings completed. This is a positive outcome in a town of 1,000 people. The improved connectivity has also been attracting young families to Beaufort. In the last two years the State Government funding allowed a complete renovation of the railway station building which is now occupied by the Pyrenees Arts Council who run the “Art Trax Gallery” there four days per week The former goods shed is now renovated and occupied by the Lake Goldsmith Steam Preservation Association where they operate a steam museum. The museum is open on special occasions or for group bookings only. Michael Unwin Wines have promoted public transport access to their monthly tapas lunches. Seniors groups and Probus clubs etc. also travel to Beaufort by train to allow retirees to explore the town and to have a day out.

Ray Davies Manager Economic Development and Tourism | Pyrenees Shire Council | Post: 5 Lawrence Street, Beaufort VIC 3373

Campaspe Shire Advocacy for Increased Services Echuca-Bendigo Campaspe Shire are advocating for increased passenger train services between Echuca and Bendigo. See attachments: 2016 Campaspe Advocacy Priorities. 2016 Campaspe Public Transport Campaign.

Astrid O'Farrell Investment Attraction Manager, Shire of Campaspe, PO Box 35, Echuca VIC 3564

Wellington Shire Council (Gippsland/Bairnsdale) Advocacy for Increased Services – Beyond Traralgon I am the Manager Economic Development and my phone number is 5142 3027. We are actually working on a project to further expand our services and have been advocating for some time about this as services are currently limited to Traralgon. Sharyn Bolitho Manager Economic Development, Wellington Shire Council, 18 Desailly Street, PO Box 506, SALE, VIC, 3850

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