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The Canadian Election: A Post-Mortem
Tuesday, July 13, 2004 Washington, D.C.
Presented by: John WrightSenior Vice PresidentPublic AffairsIpsos-Reid Corporation
To the: Woodrow Wilson Center
Overview…
3
Preface…Some History…
Former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien Beats Paul Martin For The Federal Liberal Leadership In 1990 and Goes On To Win Three Back-To-Back Majority Governments…
Gilles Duceppe Elected 1990, Becomes Bloc Leader in 1997…
Over Time, Those Loyal To Mr. Martin Take Over The Party and Essentially Put Mr. Chrétien On Notice in 2002…
4
Preface…Some History…
Former Toronto Councilor Jack Layton Becomes Leader of The New Democratic Party in January 2003…
Mr. Martin Becomes Liberal Leader and Prime Minister in December 2003…
Stephen Harper (PC ’85, Reform ’87, 2002 Alliance) Becomes New Leader Of The Conservative Party With Former PC Leader Peter McKay Chosen as Deputy Leader…A 17 Year Circle…
5
Important Elements Towards The Campaign Outcome…
Roughly 39%-41% Will Get You A Majority Government…
In Public Opinion, Paul Martin And Liberals Inherited A Majority Government With Support Pre-Convention at 46%…Post Convention 43%…
New Merged Conservative Party Accomplishes Stop To “Alliance/PC Vote Splitting”…
Throne Speech Feb 2, 2004…
Auditor General Report Feb 10, 2004: Sponsorship/Advertising Scandal Begins…Parliamentary Committee Activated…Independent Judicial Committee Appointed…
Federal Budget March 23, 2004…
6
Important Elements Towards The Campaign Outcome…
Arrests Made…And Cleverly Linked…
Former PM and PC Leader Joe Clark Endorses Martin, Not Harper as “The Devil You Know…”
Ontario Provincial Budget May 18, 2004… “Deserve To Re-Elected” Drops From 36% to 29%…
Writ Dropped May 23, 2004… “401 Election”…
Post Debate Conservatives Stumble…And Again On The Final Weekend…Attack Ads Concentrate On Ontario…
Sunday June 27 Switchers And Election June 28, 2004: Minority Government…
7
Briefly…
Liberal Support Was Soft…Need About 41% To Form A Majority Government…Governing Party Often Loses About 5 Points During A Campaign…
Paul Martin Talked About The “Democratic Deficit”, Ran As An “Outsider” As Leadership Candidate, Became “Mad As Hell” With The Sponsorship Scandal And “Owned It”…
Martin Asks For Choice: “Which Kind Of Canada Do You Want?”…Choice Between Conservative Pro-U.S., Healthcare Hidden Agenda And Service Reducing Tax Cuts or…
Liberals To Protect Medicare, Restore Trust and Integrity, Support Cities/Protect Citizens In Charter of Rights…
Ballot: Trust Them With Your Money and Pledge Vs. Trust Them With Your Values…
8
Sponsorship Scandal Severely Damaged Liberals In Quebec—Also Unpopular Provincial Liberal Government…
Scandal Plagues Martin: Can You Believe What He Says? Gives Drive To “Demand Better” Conservative Campaign…
Focus On Ontario…Where Provincial Budget Angers Voters…Violates Trust (Broken Promises/Residual of Sponsorship Program)…
Gaffes By Conservatives: “Hidden Agenda Label” (Abortion, Courts, Premier Klein on Healthcare, Air Canada Bilingualism); Personal Attack on Martin re Pornography (“Personal and Extreme”), And Boasting of Majority (With “Transition Team”), “West Back In Drivers Seat”..Withering Attack Ads In Ontario In Final Days…
All Help to Push About 225,000 Last Minute Ontario Voters To Support Liberals (Switchers)…Liberals Save 20-25 Seats There and 10 In Montreal…
9
Briefly…
Not Much Change in The Numbers Overall Except In Wary Ontario And Federalist Montreal Both Who Showed Up At The Last Minute…
Liberals Went From 165 to135 Seats (155 Needed For Majority)…Conservatives From 73 to 99, Bloc From 33 to 54, NDP From 14 to 19…1 Independent…
9th Minority Since 1921, Last In 1979…Of the Previous 8, Length Averages 18 Months and 7/8 Have Presiding PM Get Majority Next…
The Set Up…
11
Party Strengths: Predictable Demographics…
Conservatives Rural College/technical Middle-aged and older Male More affluent
Liberals Urban University educated 18-34 years of age More affluent
NDP Female
B.Q. Less affluent Francophones
Green Party 18-34 years of age $30-60K
The Conservatives…
13
Core Conservatives: Likelihood of Voting for a NEW MERGED Conservative Party of Canada…
As you may know, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative party have announced a plan to merge the two parties into a single new Conservative Party of Canada. Setting aside what you know or think about the federal Progressive Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance Party, how likely would you be to vote for the new Conservative Party of Canada in the next federal election?
16%
41%
25%
17%
6%
16%11%
18%21% 23%
11%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total BC AB SK/MN ON PQ ATL 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female
Very
REGION AGE GENDER
14
Soft Tory’s: Likelihood of Voting for a NEW MERGED Conservative Party of Canada…
As you may know, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative party have announced a plan to merge the two parties into a single new Conservative Party of Canada. Setting aside what you know or think about the federal Progressive Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance Party, how likely would you be to vote for the new Conservative Party of Canada in the next federal election?
16%
41%
25%17%
6%
16%11%
18% 21% 23%
11%
22%28%
22%
19%
20%
20%
31%
25%
21%22% 20%
25%
39%44%
63%
44%
37%
26%
47%
36%39%
43% 42%
36%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total BC AB SK/MN ON PQ ATL 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female
Very Somewhat
REGION AGE GENDER
15
Likelihood of voting for a NEW MERGED Conservative Party of Canada…
As you may know, the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative party have announced a plan to merge the two parties into a single new Conservative Party of Canada. Setting aside what you know or think about the federal Progressive Conservative party and the Canadian Alliance Party, how likely would you be to vote for the new Conservative Party of Canada in the next federal election?
16% 18%14% 16% 19% 16% 14% 17% 19%
22% 21%
26%27%
27% 22%
18%30% 22% 19%
39%38%
45%42%
43%41%
34%
44%39% 37%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total Urban Rural <HS HS Post sec Univ <$30K $30-60K $60K+
Very Somewhat
REGION TYPE EDUCATION INCOME
16
“The New Conservative Party Is Just The Alliance Taking Over The Progressive Conservative Party And They’ll Have The Same Problems Attracting Voters In Ontario And Quebec That They Had Before.”
16%
39%
26%
68%28%
10%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
DK/Refused
Disagree
Agree
Strongly Somewhat
Strongly Somewhat
I’d like to know if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement….
The Liberals…
18
Federal Parties’ Popular Support Levels(1997 Election – November 2003)…
35%
27%
17%
9%11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
June'97
Mar'01
Oct'01
Mar'02
Jul'02
Nov'02
Apr'03
Oct'03
Nov'03
Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Quebecois Other*
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?”
*As of December 2002, the Green Party was offered to respondents as an aided option. Thus the current 9% other mentions consists of 6% who chose the Green Party.
19
31 2833 33 31
76 74
8982
7773
4135
28
41 44
59 57
33
19
3226 27
32252625
4554
49 4841
38 36 3830
7769
8383827375
93
49
95100
8579
30
41
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
Jan-00 July '00 Jan-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep '02 Nov '02 Jan-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 Apr-04
Economic Social Int'l/Terrorism
Sept ‘03 (n=1,000, data collected on the Ipsos-Reid Express)Economic = Taxes 6%, Jobs 5%, Economy 10%, Debt&Deficit 10%
Social = Health 42%, Education 18%, Poverty 6%, Environment 7%, Crime 4%Unity = National Unity & Quebec/West 2%
International/Terrorism = Terrorism 13%, Immigration 3%, Military 6%, International Issues 5%
“Net total responses to the question “What issues should receive the greatest attention from Canada’s leaders?”
Social Issues, Not Economic Issues, Rule The Attention Agenda...
20
Opinions of Paul Martin Just Before The AG’s Report Showed He Was In The Right Range For Potential Majority Support…. But No “MartinMania”…
61%
56%
56%
55%
52%
48%
47%
47%
Gives me hope about the future
Understands my part of the country
Doesn't represent a change
Will run a more ethical government
Should get rid of gun registry
Has a good plan for healthcare
Doing better job than Chretien
Should allow same sex marriage
Note: January 15th
The Polls…
22
Most Important Issue For The Election Campaign…Healthcare Most Visible…Trust Visceral…
30%
11%
7%
6%
6%
6%
3%
2%
2%
15%
3%
9%
Healthcare/Medicare
Government/Politics/Political leadership
Economy (General)
Deficit/Debt/Government spending
Taxes/Tax reform/GST
Education
Environment
Sponsorship Scandal
Jobs/Unemployment
Other
None are important
DN/Refused
And, what for you personally, is the most important issue in the federal election campaign?
CIRE
May 11-13 & 14-17, 2004
N=2004
23
(Perc
en
tag
e o
f re
spon
den
ts)
“Thinking of how you feel right now, if a federal election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?”
The Top-line At The End of The Campaign Appeared Too Close To Call…That Was 5 Days Before The Vote…
32
31
17
12
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
Feb10-12
Feb17-19
Mar2-7 Mar23-25
Apr6-8 Apr27-28
May4-6 May7-13
May18-20
May28-30
Jun1-3 Jun4-8 Jun11-13
Jun18-20
Jun21-23
Liberal Party Conservative Party of CanadaNew Democratic Party Bloc QuebecoisGreen Party
2004
24
But, On Election Day, Using Actual Comparative Results, Ontario And Quebec (Montreal) Were Key…
Notes:
* Final release Friday, June 25, 2004. Polling conducted Monday, June 21 – Wednesday, June 23, 2004. 2,000 Sample. Margin of error: ±2.2
** Final Release, Friday, June 25, 2004. Polling conducted Monday, June 21 – Wednesday, June 23, 2004. 800 Sample. Margin of error: ±3.5
+ Elections Canada results as at Wednesday, June 30, 2004.
++ Elections Canada results as at Wednesday, June 30, 2004. Regional Average.
Region: NATIONAL BC Alberta Sask/Man Ontario Quebec Atlantic Source:
I-R * Act + Var I-R ** Act Var I-R Act Var I-R Act ++ Var I-R Act Var I-R Act Var I-R Act ++ Var
Party: Liberal 32 36.7 4.7 25 28.6 3.6 20 22 2 32 30.2 2.2 38 44.7 6.7 29 33.9 4.9 44 46.2 2.2
Conservative 31 29.6 1.4 38 36.2 1.8 59 61.6 2.6 36 40.6 4.6 34 31.5 2.5 9 8.8 .2 23 30.5 7.5 NDP 17 15.7 1.3 26 26.6 .6 11 9.5 1.5 25 23.4 1.6 20 18.1 1.9 5 4.6 .4 26 19.8 6.2 BQ 12 12.4 .4 48 48.8 .8
Green 6 4.3 1.7 8 6.4 1.6 6 6.2 .2 5 2.7 2.3 6 4.5 1.5 5 3.2 1.8 7 3.1 3.9 Margin of
Error ± 2.2 ± 3.5 ± 7.1 ± 10 ± 3.8 ± 4.5 ± 8.2
25
With Last Minute Voters In Ontario Crucial To The Victory…Overnight Tracking, Ontario, End of Campaign…
ONTARIO RESPONDENTS
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
June 21 June 22 June 23 June 24 June 25 June 26 June 27
DECIDED VOTER (Leaners Included)
The Conservative Party 31% 37% 30% 36% 36% 31%
The Liberals 37% 35% 42% 35% 36% 47%
The New Democratic Party 22% 21% 19% 17% 22% 17%
The Green Party 6% 5% 8% 6% 6% 4%
Other party 3% 2% 1%
NO
INTER
VIEW
S 6% 0% 1%
26
Overnight Tracking, Ontario, End of Campaign…
37%
42%
47%
31%
37%
30%
22% 21%19%
17%
22%
17%
6% 5%8%
6% 6%4%3% 2% 1% 0% 1%
36%35%35%
36%36%
31%
6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
6/21/2004 6/22/2004 6/23/2004 6/24/2004 6/25/2004 6/26/2004 6/27/2004
Liberal Party Conservative Party of CanadaNew Democratic Party Green PartyOther
No Interview
s
The Outcome…
28
Actual Seats Won…Liberal Minority… Canada’s Only “National Party”…
LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE NDP BQ BRITISH COLUMBIA 8 22 5 0 ALBERTA 2 26 0 0 SASKATCHEWAN 1 13 0 0 MANITOBA 3 7 4 0 ONTARIO 75 24 7 0 QUEBEC 21 0 0 54 NEW BRUNSWICK 7 2 1 0 NOVA SCOTIA 6 3 2 0 PEI 4 0 0 0 NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON 3 0 0 0 NEWFOUNDLAND 5 0 0 0 TOTAL 135 99 19 54
29
Actual Seats Won…Seen Another Way With The Impact of Ontario and Quebec…
135
82 1 3
75
21
7 6 4 3 5
99
2226
137
24
2 3
19
5 4 71 2
54 54
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
TOTAL BC AB SK MN ON PQ NB NS PEI NVT,NWT,
YUKON
NFLD
Liberal Conservative NDP BQ
(Se a
t s)
(Provinces/Territories)
30
Preferred Minority-Led Government… “Anybody But The Bloc”…
56%
52%
48%
47%
31%
28%
A Liberal-led minority government supportedby the NDP
A liberal-led minority government supportedby the Conservatives
A Conservative-led minority governmentsupported by the Liberals
A Conservative-led minority governmentsupported by the NDP
A Liberal-led minority government supportedby the Bloc Quebecois
A Conservative-led minority governmentsupported by the Bloc Quebecois
CIRE
June 21-23, 2004
N=2004
Going Forward…
32
Going Forward…
Message Or Mandate? First Stage of An Ouster or First Stage of Conditional Renewal?
No “MartinMania”…The Scandal Had An Impact But Disappointment In Him Too…6.7 Points In Ontario The Other Way and This Would Have Been A Different Story…A Default Vote…
Martin Will Select His New Cabinet Next Week (By July 19)…A Mix of Newcomers and Steadfast Ministers, Regionally Attuned…Healing…
What Is The Agenda?
Healthcare Meeting July 28-30th…
Conservative Policy Convention Put Off Until Spring…
Not Likely Another Election For Two Years…But, It Is A Minority…
Case By Case: Missile Defense: Lib/Con?
33
Going Forward…
Bloc: Referendum a “Provincial Issue”…Next Quebec Election Likely 2006…Voting On Quebec’s Interests…Federal Staffing Money Used To Help PQ in Quebec Defeat Charest?
Harper and Conservatives: More Progressive? Opportunity To Show Him and His Troops, Especially In Ontario, Not Demons… With 24 Seats in Ontario Two Years Critical To Fashion New Party Persona, Make Inroads In Quebec…It’s Not About Uniting The Right It’s About Uniting The Center…And Being A True Alternative…
Liberals: Can You Trust Them With Your Money And Do The Get The “Integrity Thing”? Conservatives: Can You Trust them With Your Values?…Conservatives and Health Care?
NDP: Influence Expectation Diminished But Still A Player…Health, Cities…Influence More Intellectual Than Political…
34
Going Forward…
The U.S.: Negative Attitudes Not About Americans—It’s About The Bush Administration…
Martin Has To Tread Carefully: Remember Two Parties That Can Defeat The Government Are Hostile Towards The U.S.: The NDP (Openly) and The Bloc (Conditionally)…
Martin Also Needs Some Movement: The NAFTA Musings/ Softwood Lumber/Mad Cow…
G-20
Canadians Will Watch US Election Closely…Kerry Protectionism?
New Ambassador…???
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