The Buckeye Squeeze: The GOP Presidential Candidates’ Policy Ideas and Ohio’s Middle Class

8/20/2019 The Buckeye Squeeze: The GOP Presidential Candidates’ Policy Ideas and Ohio’s Middle Class

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The Buckeye SqueezeThe GOP Presidential Candidates’

Policy Ideas and Ohio’s Middle Class

By Ryan Erickson August 2015

WWW.AMERICANPROGRESSACTION.O


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The Buckeye SqueezeThe GOP Presidential Candidates’

Policy Ideas and Ohio’s Middle Class

By Ryan Erickson August 2015


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1 Introduction and summary

4 Redistributing tax benefits to the wealthy

8 Making it harder to preserve and to create good-paying

12 Blocking policies that help families balance work

with child care

13 Ignoring runaway college tuition costs

17 Endnotes

Contents


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1 Center for American Progress Action Fund | The Buckeye Squeeze

Introduction and summary

In he wake o a crippling economic recession and a recovery ha has lef oo

many working and middle-class Americans behind, Ohioans are sruggling o

gain back los ground. Te median household income in Ohio is lower han i was

beore he recession.1 Moreover, alhough he Ohio economy has grown in he

pas 30 years, hose gains have disproporionaely benefied he sae’s wealhies:

Beween 1984 and 2013, he share o earnings going o he middle 60 percen o

households in Ohio dropped 5.4 percen, while he share o he earnings by he

op 20 percen rose 5.3 percen.2

I should come as no surprise ha as Republican presidenial candidaesinclud-

ing ormer Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Ohio Gov. John

Kasich, ormer exas Gov. Rick Perry, and Wisconsin Gov. Scot Walker, as well as

Sens. ed Cruz (X), Lindsey Graham (SC), Rand Paul (KY), and Marco Rubio

(FL)cour Ohio voers, hey have ried o rerame heir rheoric o make he

policies hey suppor sound more appealing o working amilies.3

FIGURE 1

The typical Ohio household is now earning less than it did

in 1984—and below the U.S. average

Median household income, in 2013 dollars

Source: Bureau of the Census, Table H-8. Median Household Income by State: 1984 to 2013 (U.S. Department of Commerce), available at

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/ (last accessed July 2015).

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Ohio United States


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Bu while hese candidaes are hoping o posiion hemselves as supporers o

Ohio’s middle class, heir records ell a differen sory. Te GOP presidenial

candidaes deailed in his repor have consisenly suppored ax policies ha

benefi he wealhy a he expense o low- and middle-income Americans, preven

low- and middle-income people rom geting good-paying jobs, make i harder or

amilies o juggle responsibiliies a work and a home, and increase he burden orsudens and amilies looking o climb he economic ladder.

Tese candidaes’ policies would have a real impac on Ohio’s working amilies,

including:

• Redistributing tax benefits to the wealthy. Te records o he GOP candidaes

deailed in his repor show broad suppor or ax plans ha would overwhelm-

ingly benefi he wealhy. For example, some candidaes suppor eliminaing

he ederal capial gains axa move ha would benefi 92 percen o he 9,280

Ohio axpayers who made $1 million or more in 2012 bu ha would havealmos no impac on Ohio’s middle class.4

• Making it harder to preserve and to create good-paying jobs. Several

Republican candidaes back policies ha would make i harder or workers o

ge good-paying jobs, including righ-o-work laws. Many Republican candi-

daes also opposed he ederal rescue o he auomoive indusry, even hough

he number o auo indusry jobs in Ohio increased a more han hree imes he

sae’s overall job growh rae and accouned or 12.4 percen o all jobs creaed

in Ohio beween 2010 and 2014.5

• Blocking policies that help families balance work with child care.

Gov. Walker

and Gov. Jindal have blocked effors o guaranee paid sick leavea policy ha

would help working amilies in Ohio; boh also have signed laws ha sop ciies

rom insiuing policies ha guaranee workers paid sick leave. Te curren

senaors running or presiden voed agains paid sick leave a he ederal level.6

• Ignoring runaway college tuition costs. Gov. Jindal and Gov. Perry presided

over skyrockeing uiion and ees or college educaion a public universiies

in heir saes. uiion and ees climbed 61.4 percen in Louisiana under Jindal,compared wih 17.4 percen in Ohio over he same ime period. Tey climbed

168.4 percen in exas under Perry, compared wih 99.1 percen in Ohio over

he same period.7


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As hese candidaes vie or he suppor o Ohio’s working amilies, i will be

imporan o square heir recen rheoric, increasingly filled wih promises o be

champions o he middle class, wih he realiy o heir records. Tese candidaes’

records clearly show suppor or policies ha would se Ohio working amilies

back raher han help hem ge ahead.


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Redistributing tax benefits

to the wealthy

Ohio has a regressive ax sysem in which lower- and middle-income amilies pay

a larger share o heir incomes in axes overall han he wealhy do.8 According o

daa rom he Insiue on axaion and Economic Policy, he botom 20 percen

o earners in Ohioor hose earning less han $18,000 per yearpay 11.7 per-

cen o heir income in sae and local axes, while he op 1 percen o earners, or

hose earning more han $356,000, pay jus 5.5 percen.9

Ohio’s ax code has some imporan eaures ha help compensae or he acha he poor pay a higher share o heir income in axes han he rich. Ohio has

a graduaed, or progressive, income ax srucure, meaning ha high-income

earners pay a bigger share o sae income axes han low- and middle-income

axpayers, even hough oher ypes o axaion, such as sales axes, heavily avor

he rich because low- and middle-class people pay larger shares o heir incomes

overall, while wealhy amilies pay less.10 Addiionally, Ohio axes capial gains

income, which is much more likely o be a source o income or wealhy axpay-

ers han or low- and middle-income axpayers.11

Bu several Republican presidenial candidaes suppor a range o policy ideas

eliminaing axes on capial gains, fla income axes, naional sales axes, and oher

policiesha hreaen o il axes even more in avor o he wealhy ew, while

huring Ohio’s working- and middle-class amilies.

Eliminating taxes on capital gains income

Repealing he capial gains ax would provide a huge giveaway o Ohio million-

aires bu do litle o help Ohio’s middle class. Tis is because he highes earnersge more o heir income rom capial gains, while working- and middle-class

amilies ofen do no receive anyor only receive very litleincome rom


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his source. In 2012, or example, only 12 percen o Ohioans earning beween

$25,000 and $75,000 in adjused gross income received any orm o income

rom capial gains.12 In conras, 92 percen o Ohio axpayers earning $1 mil-

lion or more in adjused gross income ha year had income rom capial gains,

earning an average o $788,003 in capial gains income apiece.13

Despie he ac ha eliminaing he capial gains ax would disproporionally ben-

efi he riches Ohioans, several 2016 presidenial candidaes suppor he policy.

Jeb Bush called or eliminaing or dramaically lowering he capial gains ax rae,14

and as governor o Florida, he eliminaed a small ax on inangible asses, includ-

ing sock and bonds.15 Even hough he ax only affeced individuals wih more

han $250,000 and couples wih more han $500,000 in applicable asses, Gov.

Bush called he ax “insidious.”16

He is no he only candidae o promoe eliminaing capial gains axes: Gov.

Perry’s 2012 ax plan called or eliminaing axes on long-erm capial gains, and

he legislaion ha Sen. Cruz co-sponsored or he creaion o a naional sales ax

would also eliminae capial gains axes.17 Earlier his year, Sen. Rubio released a

ax plan ha eliminaes hese axes as well.18

FIGURE 2

Eliminating capital gains taxes would overwhelmingly favor

the wealthy but do little to help middle-income Ohioans

Percentage of middle-income Ohioans who earn capital gains vs.

percentage of very-high-income Ohioans who earn capital gains

Source: Author's analysis of federal tax data from Internal Revenue Service, "SOI Tax Stats - Historic Table 2," available athttp://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats-Historic-Table-2 (last accessed July 2015).

Income between $25,000 and $75,000

Percentage with capital gains income

Income more than $1 million

12.1%

92.1%

Median income in Ohio: $46,398

The bottom 20

percent of Ohio

taxpayers pay

11.7 percent of the

income in state

and local taxes,

while the top

1 percent of earne

pay just 5.5 percen


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Flat income taxes

Economiss agree ha insiuing a fla income ax would be a boon o he wealhy

bu require low- and middle-income amilies o pay more. A fla income ax would

replace he curren ederal income ax sysemin which people generally pay a

bigger share o heir income i hey earn morewih one ha would cu he op axraes paid by he wealhy and raise axes paid by low- and middle-income people.19

Insiuing a fla income ax ha mainains curren governmen revenues would

require raising ax raes on low- and middle-class incomes: According o he ax

Policy Cener, a fla ax rae would need o be se a or near 25 percen o main-

ain curren revenues, meaning ha ax raes would rise or all incomes less han

$37,450 or single filers and less han $74,900 or join filers.20 Insiuing a fla ax

ha does no raise axes on low- and middle-income amilies would require eiher

a massive increase in defici spending or savage cus o governmen programs, and

even hen, he benefis o a fla ax would overwhelmingly go o he op, providingminimal ax benefis o working amilies and exacerbaing income inequaliy.21

Neverheless, Gov. Perry proposed a 20 percen fla ax on income during his 2012

presidenial run ha would evenually replace he curren ederal income ax sys-

em.22 Analysis o Perry’s ax plan showed ha i would have dramaically avored

he very wealhies axpayers while doing nex o nohing or people a he botom

o he economic ladder: Te op 1 percen naionally would see a 19.1 percen

drop in heir ax raes, while he botom 20 percen would only see a 0.6 percen

decrease.23 Perry’s plan would mean ha he op 0.17 percen o Ohioansor he

9,270 Ohioans wih more han $1 million in axable income who earned an aver-

age o $2,451,300 in 2012would see an average ax break o $646,752.24 Te ax

Policy Cener also concluded ha Perry’s ax plan would “dramaically” reduce

ederal governmen revenues.25

Similarly, Sen. Paul has proposed a fla ax plan wih a ax rae o 14.5 percen.26

Even he conservaive-leaning ax Foundaion has esimaed ha Paul’s plan

would benefi he wealhies axpayers mos.27 In ac, he ax Foundaion’s

analysis showed ha he 9,280 Ohio axpayers earning $1 million or more would

see a 13 percen boos in heir afer-ax income, bu people earning a or aroundOhio’s median household income o $46,398 would see only an esimaed 3 per-

cen boos.28 Paul is vague abou how he would pay or his ax plan, even hough

esimaes on is 10-year cos range rom $1 rillion o $15 rillion.29 No o be lef

behind, Sen. Graham has suppored a fla ax in “he high eens or low 20s.”30

Under Paul’s tax

plan, Ohioans

earning more than

$1 million would

see a 13 percent

boost in their

after-tax income.


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National sales tax

Insiuing a naional sales ax in lieu o income, esae, and all oher axes would

give huge ax breaks o he wealhy while requiring everyone else o pay a bigger

share o heir income in axes.31 Because working amilies spend a greaer share

o heir incomes on goods and services han he wealhy do, a naional sales ax would ake up a greaer share o hose amilies’ earnings; he curren income ax

srucure means ha people pay a greaer share o heir income as hey earn more.

Tere is currenly no naional sales ax, bu sales axes are very common among

sae ax sysems, effecively making sae ax sysems more regressive: According

o he Insiue on axaion and Economic Policy, poor amilies pay almos eigh

imes more o heir incomes in sae sales axes han he mos affluen amilies.32

Sen. Cruz co-sponsored legislaion in boh 2013 and 2015 proposing a version

o a naional sales ax ha would replace income and oher axes.33 A ax Policy

Cener analysis showed ha implemening a naional sales ax could be especiallypuniive o Ohio’s working- and middle-class amilies while giving Ohio’s wealhi-

es “sunningly large” ax cus: Under a naional sales ax, households in he op

1 percen would receive ax breaks financed by ax increases on he botom 92

percen o households.34

Ohio Gov. Kasich is pushing similar ax changes a he sae level: Since aking

office in 2011, Kasich has made i a goal o eliminae Ohio’s sae income ax.35 o

make up or he los revenue, he has proposed increasing consumpion axes such

as he sales axa move ha would clearly benefi well-off amilies a he expense

o low- and middle-income amilies.36

Govs. Bush, Kasich, and Perry and Sens. Cruz, Graham, Paul, and Rubio may have

differen ideas abou how o do i, bu heir records and policy proposals show

he same hingax cus or he wealhy, regardless o wheher heir proposals

would subsanially increase he defici, raise axes on working amilies, or boh.

Te push o give Ohio’s wealhies a ax break is misguided: Ohio’s wealhies are

hardly he ones who need a boos rom he governmen.


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Making it harder to preserve

and to create good-paying jobs

Srong wages and good jobs are criical o Ohio amilies’ economic securiy.

Policies ha srenghen collecive bargaining can help ensure ha Ohio work-

ers earn wha hey need o reachand say inhe middle class. Te healh o

he auo indusry, which suppors nearly 850,000 Ohio jobs, is also imporan o

workers in Ohio.37

Bu ime and again, many Republican candidaes or presiden have shown a

callous opposiion o he policies ha clearly suppor good-paying jobs in Ohio.Several suppor so-called righ-o-work laws, which hinder employees’ abiliy o

bargain collecively wih heir employers or beter pay. And hough he ederal

governmen’s auo rescue suppored he auo indusry, which accouns or a

subsanial share o Ohio’s jobs, many GOP candidaes opposed he moveand

coninued o do so even as mouning evidence demonsraed is success.

Collective bargaining and right-to-work laws

Mos Republican candidaes profiled in his repor have shown enhusiasic sup-

por or so-called righ-o-work laws and oher measures ha resric he abiliy

o middle-class workers in Ohio and elsewhere o collecively bargain or beter

wages. Righ-o-work laws undermine unions and drag down heir membership,

causing as much as a 9.6 percen decline in unionizaion raes in areas where such

laws are enaced.38

Declining union membership raes are srongly associaed wih he declining

share o income earned by he middle class.39 According o he Economic Policy

Insiue, even when conrolling or demographic and socioeconomic acors, wages are 3.1 percen lower in righ-o-work saes han in non-righ-o-work

saes, ranslaing ino $1,558 lower annual wages or boh ull-ime union and

nonunion workers alike.40 Noneheless, deenders o Indiana’s righ-o-work law

claim ha i already has been a success in he shor ime ha he law has been in

effec, saying ha i has been a acor in promping companies o relocae o or

expand in Indiana.41


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However, look no urher han Ohio and is neighboring saes or evidence

o why claims abou he impac o r igh-o-work laws are inflaed. Unlike is

neighboring saes o Indiana and Michigan, Ohio does no have a righ-o-

work law.42 Te unemploymen rae has allen slighly aser in Ohio han i has

in eiher Indiana or Michigan since righ-o-work laws ook effec in hose wo

saes. Beween April 2012he firs ul l monh ha a righ-o-work law was ineffec in Indianaand December 2014, he unemploymen rae in Indiana ell

a a rae o 28 percen; during ha same ime period, unemploymen ell a a

rae o 31 percen in Ohio.43 Similarly, he unemploymen rae ell a a rae o 26

percen in Michigan beween April 2013he firs monh ha a righ-o-work

law ook effec hereand December 2014, bu ell a a rae o 31 percen in

Ohio over he same period.44 Alhough correlaion does no prove causaion,

hese saisics cerainly show ha righ-o-work laws are no necessary or say-

ing compeiive in he Midwes.

Despie his, he GOP presidenial hopeuls deailed in his repor have cham-pioned righ-o-work laws or oherwise opposed unions. Gov. Walker’s Ac 10, a

2011 law ha severely curailed he righs o public-secor employees o bargain

collecively, has ensconced him as one o he counry’s mos visible union oppo-

nens.45 He bolsered his repuaion even urher when he signed Wisconsin’s

righ-o-work law his year.46 Sen. Paul inroduced a naional righ-o-work law

in 201347 and again in 2015;48 oher candidaesincluding Gov. Bush and Sens.

Cruz, Rubio, and Grahamhave suppored righ-o-work laws.49 And in Ohio,

Gov. Kasich signed a bill in 2011 ha would have severely resriced collecive

bargaining or public employeessimilar o he law in Wisconsinbu Ohioans

rejeced i by a large margin when i was pu up or a reerendum ha same year.50

Restructuring the automotive industry

According o a 2010 repor by he Cener or Auomoive Research, 848,000

jobs are conneced o he auo indusry in Ohio.51 When he American auomo-

ive indusry was on he brink o collapse in he lae 2000s, he U.S. governmen

ook exraordinary measures o rescue American auomoive manuacurers

and saved an esimaed 1.5 mil lion jobs.52

oday, he auo indusry is hrivingand creaing jobs in Ohio, and boh research and he media have hailed he

ederal rescue as a success. 53 Beween 2010 and 2014, he number o auo jobs

increased a more han hree imes he rae o overall job growh in Ohio18.2

percen in he auo indusry, compared wih 5.6 percen oal.54 Core auo indus-

ry jobs accoun or 12.4 percen o all jobs creaed in Ohio beween 2010

Wages are 3.1 perc

lower in right-to-w

states than in non

right-to-work state

translating into $1

lower annual wag


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he firs ull year afer he auo rescueand 2014.55 And hese numbers only

accoun or jobs in he auo indusry, no or he large number o serv ice jobs

ha have been creaed as Ohio auoworkers buy groceries, go o he docor, and

spend money in heir communiies.

Tese gains could have been los i he GOP presidenial candidaes had heir way.

Many o he candidaes opposed he auo rescue, claiming ha he auomakers

could have goten all he resources hey needed rom he privae secora claim

ha has been dismissed widely by auo indusry expers, who say ha here was

no capial available o he auo indusry a he ime o he rescue.56 Gov. Bush has

spoken ou in opposiion o he assisance o General Moors and Chrysler ha

Presiden Barack Obama underook in 2009.57 Meanwhile, Sen. Cruz claimed ha

he auo rescue was he wrong move and ha he auo indusry would have “[sur-

vived] and would have hrived.”58

Similarly, Sen. Rubio said ha he rescue was no he “righ way” o handle i

bu offered no concree policy alernaives excep or he GOP policy cure-alls

o lowering axes and guting regulaory proecions.59

Gov. Perry sruck a moreominous one, signing on o an op-ed in 2008 wih ormer Souh Carolina Gov.

Mark Sanord (R) in which he said ha he auo rescue ook he counry in a

“dangerous” direcion.60

FIGURE 3

Since the auto rescue, job creation in the Ohio auto industry

is outpacing the rate of job creation in the state overall

Percent increase in jobs from previous year

Source: Author's analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages,” available athttp://www.bls.gov/cew/data.htm (last accessed July 2015). Data f or 2014 are preliminary.

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ohio auto job growth

Ohio job growth overall

0.6%

5.0%

1.4%

-0.7%


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Te auo rescue and policies ha srenghen collecive bargaining are jus wo

examples o policies ha enable Ohio’s working amilies boh o find jobs and o

grow heir wages in he jobs ha hey already have. Tese Republican candidaes’

suppor or righ-o-work laws and oher ani-union measures, coupled wih heir

opposiion o saving one o Ohio’s core indusries and sources o job growh, show

ha hey are no on he side o Ohio’s working amilies.


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Blocking policies that help families

balance work with child care

Te way ha parens balance work and amily responsibiliies is changing in Ohio

and across he Unied Saes. Mohers are now primary, sole, or co-breadwinners

in 68 percen o Ohio amilies, and 69 percen o Ohio children have all available

parens in he workorce.61 As more and more amilies need boh parens o work

in order o make ends mee, policies ha help people balance work and amily are

more imporan han ever beore.

O hese policies, paid sick leave is one sep ha saes or he ederal governmencould ake o help parens ake ime off o care or heir children or hemselves

wihou risking heir jobs or losing pay. Seveny percen o Americans, including

51 percen o Republicans, hink ha companies should be required o offer paid

sick leave o employees.62 However, only 46 percen o privae-secor workers in

Ohio have access o paid sick days.63

Bu many o he GOP candidaes are opposed o paid sick leave policies and oher

policies ha would help Ohio amilies ge ahead. Noably, Govs. Walker and Jindal

signed pre-empion lawsor laws ha prohibi ciies rom enacing policies

ha go beyond sae lawha have sopped ciies in heir saes rom requiring

employers o offer paid sick leave. In 2011, Walker signed a pre-empion bill ino

law, negaing a paid sick day measure ha previously passed in Milwaukee wih 69

percen o he voe.64 Jindal signed a similar pre-empion bill ino law in Louisiana

he ollowing year.65

Unlike Wisconsin and Louisiana, Ohio does no have a pre-empion law on he

books: Localiies can ake acion o help guaranee ha working amilies have a righ

o paid sick ime rom heir employers.66 Bu under Walker and Jindal’s policies,

Ohio ciies would no be able o ake acion o help working amilies. And opposi-ion o paid sick leave is no rue o jus hese governors: Te GOP candidaes now

serving in he U.S. SenaeCruz, Graham, Rubio, and Paulall opposed a March

2015 budge resoluion ha called or paid sick days.67 Paid sick leave is a clearand

popularwin or working amilies, bu according o hese candidaes, he 46 per-

cen o Ohio workers wihou paid sick leave are simply ou o luck.

Only 46 percent

of private-sector

workers in Ohio

have access to

paid sick days.


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Ignoring runaway

college tuition costs

Higher educaion is key o reaching and saying in he middle class, and policies

ha make college educaion accessible o sudens rom working- and middle-

class amilies are criical o helping hem achieve economic securiy. Especially

as he coss o higher educaion reach new highsin 2012, uiion, ees, room,

and board expenses added up o one-hird o an average American amily’s

annual median incomepolicies ha keep college coss under conrol are more

imporan han ever.68 Bu oday, oo many Ohio sudens are overburdened wih

suden loan deb: 68 percen o Ohio graduaes have suden loan deb, carryingan average o $29,090 each.69

Unlike many oher saes, Ohio has aken acion o rein in college coss. Unil

2007, he growh in uiion and ees a public, our-year colleges in Ohio signifi-

canly oupaced he naional average.70 Bu in 2007, hen-Gov. ed Srickland (D)

and he sae legislaure pushed o cap uiion increases. College coss in Ohio

slowed or he nex ew years.71 uiion growh in Ohio in he years since he

uiion cap has been significanly more modes han in previous years: Beween

2000 and 2006, uiion a public, our-year universiies grew 89.7 percen in Ohio;

beween 2007 and 2013, uiion increased only 16.8 percen.72 Naionally, uiion

a public, our-year colleges grew 61.8 percen beween 2000 and 2006 and has

risen 39.9 percen since 2007.73

Despie he rising coss o college, many o he GOP presidenial candidaes who

were or are governors ailed o conrol he rising cos o college in heir saes.

Insead, hey proposed slashing he budges o heir saes’ universiy sysems,

urher sressing he higher educaion sysem.

GOP candidaes Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal boh ailed o conrol coss: In boho heir saes, yearly in-sae uiion and ees a public our-year colleges signifi-

canly oupaced he rae o uiion and ee growh in Ohio. During Perry’s enure

as governor o exas, uiion rose 168.4 percen in exas bu only 99.1 percen

over he same period in Ohio.74 I uiion and ees rose a he same rae in Ohio as

hey did in exas, college would be $3,286 more expensive per year in Ohio oday.


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In Louisiana, he rae o uiion and ee increases during Jindal’s enure is more

han hree imes ha in Ohio: Since he 2008-09 academic year, uiion and ees

have increased 61.4 percen in Louisiana, compared wih jus 17.4 percen Ohio.75

College would cos $3,541 more in Ohio i uiion and ees rose a he same rae

here as hey did in Louisiana.

Tis year, Gov. Jindal is pushing or very large cus o he Louisiana public higher

educaion sysem o cover sae budge shoralls caused by misguided ax policies.

Te cus oal beween $200 million and $300 million, or one-fifh o one-hird

o he Louisiana Sae Universiy Sysem budge.76 A he higher end, Jindal’s pro-

posed cus are equivalen o more han double wha he enire sysem o Te Ohio

Sae Universiy spends on financial aid in one year.77

oday, a college degree is more imporan han ever o economic securiy in

America. And while geting a college degree is an onerous expense or many Ohiosudens and amilies, higher educaion coss could have grown even more under

hese GOP candidaes’ wach.

College would cos

$3,541 more in Oh

if tuition and fees

rose at the same r

there as they did i

Louisiana under Ji

and $3,286 more i

tuition and fees ro

at the same rate a

Texas under Perry.

FIGURE 4

As Ohio controlled tuition costs, tuition skyrocketed under

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Texas Gov. Rick Perry

Percent increase in average tuition and fees paid by full-time-equivalent

undergraduate students attending four-year, public higher education institutions

Source: Author’s calculation of National Center for Education Statistics database regarding average undergraduate tuition and f ees androom and board rates paid from the 2000-01 to 2013-14 school years by full-time-equivalent students in degree-granting institutions.

See National Center for Education Statistics, “Digest of Education Statistics,” available at http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/(last accessed July 2015).

Tuition increase in Louisiana

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

2000-01 2008-09 2013-142000-01 2008-09 2013-14

Tution increase in Ohio

Tuition increase in Texas

Tution increase in Ohio


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Conclusion

As Republican 2016 presidenial candidaes come hrough Ohio, wooing vo-

ers wih promises o pu he middle class firs, Ohioans should see hrough heir

rheoric o he realiy o heir records:

Jeb Bush, ed Cruz, Lindsey Graham, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, and

Rick Perry would push ax breaksincluding eliminaing capial gains axesha

benefi Ohio’s wealhies bu offer litle o no relie or he sae’s working amilies.

Wih middle-class incomes ha have been slow o rebound since he recession,

Ohio would be worse off wih resricions on collecive bargainingas Scot

Walker and Sen. Paul have championedor i he auo rescue had no saved one

o he bigges engines o job growh in Ohioeven hough Gov. Bush, Sen. Cruz,

and ohers opposed he measure.

As presiden, he candidaes would obsruc crucial workplace proecions ha

help parens juggle work and amily lie, such as paid sick leave. Gov. Walker and

Gov. Jindal have already done so in Wisconsin and Louisiana, respecively.

Republican candidaes would make i more difficul or Ohio amilies o pu heir

children hrough college. As Gov. Perry’s and Gov. Jindal’s ailures o conrol coss

illusrae, uiion bills in Ohio could be more han $3,000 higher i he sae’s

uiion increases had grown a he same rae as exas’ or Louisiana’s.

Good policies can help suppor he growh and proecion o he middle class, bu

he Republican candidaes or presiden deailed here are only promising more o

he same misguided policies ha pu he ineress o he wealhy ew beore he

well-being o Ohio’s working amilies. Alering heir rheoric will no change he

ac ha heir policies would se Ohioans back.


19/24


About the author

Ryan Erickson is he Associae Direcor o Economic Campaigns or he Cener

or American Progress Acion Fund. Beore joining CAP Acion, Erickson devel-

oped sraegy and conduced research or Everyown or Gun Saey’s elecoral

campaigns. Prior o ha, he was he special assisan o he chie advisor or policyand sraegic planning o New York Ciy Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (I), where

he ocused on he mayor’s naional policy iniiaives. He also managed policy

advocacy or Cener on Halsed, he Midwes’s larges lesbian, gay, bisexual, rans-

gender, and queer, or LGBQ, communiy cener.


20/24


Endnotes

1 In noninflation-adjusted terms, median income in Ohiodeclined from $49,099 in 2007 to $46,398 in 2013,the most recent year for which data are available. SeeBureau of the Census, “Median Household Incomein Ohio,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, availableat https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ME-

HOINUSOHA646N/ (last accessed July 2015).

2 David Madland and Danielle Corley, “In Ohio, a Strug-gling Middle Class” (Washington: Center for AmericanProgress, 2015).

3 Earlier this year, for example, Gov. Bush posted to Face-book, saying, “We need to create economic opportunityfor every American, especially middle class families andthose trying to rise out of poverty.” See Jeb Bush OfficialFacebook Page, January 20, 2015, available at https://www.facebook.com/jebbush/posts/640180486110998 .When unveiling a tax plan authored jointly with Sen.Mike Lee, Sen. Rubio wrote in an op-ed, “Too manyAmericans believe the American dream is slipping awayfor them and their children … They see the ladder ofeconomic opportunity being pulled farther up and out oftheir reach.” See Mike Lee and Marco Rubio, “A Pro-Family,Pro-Growth Tax Reform,” The Wall Street Journal , Septem-

ber 22, 2014, available at http://www.wsj.com/articles/mike-lee-and-marco-rubio-a-pro-family-pro-growth-tax-reform-1411426189. Sen. Paul launched his campaignsounding like former Sen. John Edwards (D-NC): “MartinLuther King spoke of two Americas. He described themas two starkly different American experiences that existside-by-side. In one America, people experience theopportunity of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.In the other America, people experience a daily uglinessthat dashes hope and leaves only the fatigue of despair.”See Ryan Teague Beckwith, “Transcript: Read Full Text ofSen. Rand Paul’s Campaign Launch,”Time, April 7, 2015,available at http://time.com/3773964/rand-paul-presi-dential-campaign-launch-speech-transcript/.

4 Based on author’s analysis of Internal Revenue ServiceStatistics of Income data on federal tax returns fromOhio in 2012, the most recent year for which data areavailable. See Internal Revenue Service, “SOI Tax Stats

- Historic Table 2,” available at http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats-Historic-Table-2 (last accessed July 2015).

5 Author’s analysis of employment in the auto industryin the years following the auto rescue—between2010 and 2014—using the Bureau of Labor Statisticsdefinition of core auto industry jobs. See Bureau ofLabor Statistics, “Automotive Industry : Employment,Earnings, and Hours,” available at http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htm (last accessed July 2015). Data forOhio auto industry job growth were obtained throughthe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census ofEmployment and Wages. See Bureau of Labor Statistics,“Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages,” availableat http://www.bls.gov/cew/data.htm (last accessed July2015). Growth in automotive jobs in Ohio is comparedwith job growth in Ohio overall from 2010 to 2014, alsousing the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.Data for 2014 are preliminary.

6 Patrick Marley, “Bill Voiding Sick Leave Sent toWalker,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel , April 12, 2011,available at http://www.jsonline.com/news/state-politics/119701054.html; Louisiana State Legislature,Louisiana Act 667 (2012), http://www.legis.la.gov/legis/BillInfo.aspx?s=12RS&b=SB521&sbi=y; David Weigel,“Every Republican Running for President Votes AgainstPaid Sick Leave; It Passes Anyway,” Bloomberg, March26, 2015, available at http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-26/every-republican-running-for-president-votes-against-paid-family-leave.

7 Author’s calculation of National Center for EducationStatistics database regarding average undergraduatetuition and required fees between the 2000-01 and2013-14 school years by full-time- equivalent studentsin degree-granting institutions. See National Centerfor Education Statistics, “Digest of Education Statistics,”

available at http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/(lastaccessed July 2015).

8 See Daniel H. Cooper, Byron F. Lutz, and Michael G.Palumbo, “The Role of Taxes in Mitigating IncomeInequality Across the U.S. States.” Working Paper(2015), available at http://byron.marginalq.com/cooper_lutz_palumbo_2015.pdf ; David Wessel, “WhichStates’ Tax Laws Widen Inequality,” Real Time Econom-ics, May 20, 2015, available at http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/05/20/which-states-tax-laws-widen-inequality/.

9 Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, “Ohio: State& Local Taxes in 2015,” available at http://www.itep.org/whopays/states/ohio.php (last accessed July 2015).

10 Ohio Department of Taxation, “Ohio Individual Income Tax Rates: 2005-2014,” available at http://www.tax.ohio.

gov/ohio_individual/individual/annual_tax_rates.aspx (last accessed July 2015).

11 Kyle Pomerleau and Richard Borean, “How High areCapital Gains Tax Rates in Your State?”, Tax Foundation,February 20, 2014, available at http://taxfoundation.org/blog/how-high-are-capital-gains-tax-rates-your-state; Harry Stein, “How the GovernmentSubsidizes Wealth Inequality” (Washington: Centerfor American Progress, 2014), available at https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2014/06/25/92656/how-the-government-subsi-dizes-wealth-inequality/.

12 Median household income in Ohio was $46,398 in2013, meaning that the $25,000–$75,000 range ofadjusted gross income used here is as close to the Ohiomedian income as possible given available information.See Bureau of the Census, “Median Household Income

in Ohio.” Capital gains tax figures are based on author’sanalysis of Internal Revenue Service Statistics of Incomedata on federal tax returns from Ohio in 2012, the mostrecent year for which data are available. See InternalRevenue Service, “SOI Tax Stats - Historic Table 2.”

13 Ibid.

14 The Human Parade, “The Human Parade: Jeb Bush,”YouTube, January 29, 2014, available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrD-DMCPxLE. The commentson capital gains tax appear at 47:04.

15 Martin A. Sullivan, “As Governor, Jeb Bush Catered TaxCuts to the Wealthy,” The Tax Analysts Blog, April 20,2013, available at http://www.taxanalysts.com/taxcom/taxblog.nsf/Permalink/MSUN-9VQSPY?OpenDocument.

16 John Kennedy, “Foes Want ‘Evil Tax’ Repeal To Become

Campaign Issue,” Sun Sentinel , March 26, 2006, avail-able at http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2006-03-26/news/0603250545_1_force-wealthy-northerners-insidious-tax-intangibles-tax.

17 Tax Policy Center, “Governor Rick Perry’s Tax ReformPlan,” available at http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Perry-plan.cfm (last accessed July 2015);Fair Tax Act of 2015, S. 155, 114 Cong. 1 sess. (Libraryof Congress, 2015), available at https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/155.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSOHA646N/https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSOHA646N/https://www.facebook.com/jebbush/posts/640180486110998https://www.facebook.com/jebbush/posts/640180486110998http://www.wsj.com/articles/mike-lee-and-marco-rubio-a-pro-family-pro-growth-tax-reform-1411426189http://www.wsj.com/articles/mike-lee-and-marco-rubio-a-pro-family-pro-growth-tax-reform-1411426189http://www.wsj.com/articles/mike-lee-and-marco-rubio-a-pro-family-pro-growth-tax-reform-1411426189http://time.com/3773964/rand-paul-presidential-campaign-launch-speech-transcript/http://time.com/3773964/rand-paul-presidential-campaign-launch-speech-transcript/http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats-Historic-Table-2http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats-Historic-Table-2http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/cew/data.htmhttp://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119701054.htmlhttp://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119701054.htmlhttp://www.legis.la.gov/legis/BillInfo.aspx?s=12RS&b=SB521&sbi=yhttp://www.legis.la.gov/legis/BillInfo.aspx?s=12RS&b=SB521&sbi=yhttp://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-26/every-republican-running-for-president-votes-against-paid-family-leavehttp://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-26/every-republican-running-for-president-votes-against-paid-family-leavehttp://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-26/every-republican-running-for-president-votes-against-paid-family-leavehttp://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/http://byron.marginalq.com/cooper_lutz_palumbo_2015.pdfhttp://byron.marginalq.com/cooper_lutz_palumbo_2015.pdfhttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/05/20/which-states-tax-laws-widen-inequality/http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/05/20/which-states-tax-laws-widen-inequality/http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/05/20/which-states-tax-laws-widen-inequality/http://www.itep.org/whopays/states/ohio.phphttp://www.itep.org/whopays/states/ohio.phphttp://www.tax.ohio.gov/ohio_individual/individual/annual_tax_rates.aspxhttp://www.tax.ohio.gov/ohio_individual/individual/annual_tax_rates.aspxhttp://taxfoundation.org/blog/how-high-are-capital-gains-tax-rates-your-statehttp://taxfoundation.org/blog/how-high-are-capital-gains-tax-rates-your-statehttp://taxfoundation.org/blog/how-high-are-capital-gains-tax-rates-your-statehttps://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2014/06/25/92656/how-the-government-subsidizes-wealth-inequality/https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2014/06/25/92656/how-the-government-subsidizes-wealth-inequality/https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2014/06/25/92656/how-the-government-subsidizes-wealth-inequality/https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2014/06/25/92656/how-the-government-subsidizes-wealth-inequality/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrD-DMCPxLEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrD-DMCPxLEhttp://www.taxanalysts.com/taxcom/taxblog.nsf/Permalink/MSUN-9VQSPY?OpenDocumenthttp://www.taxanalysts.com/taxcom/taxblog.nsf/Permalink/MSUN-9VQSPY?OpenDocumenthttp://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2006-03-26/news/0603250545_1_force-wealthy-northerners-insidious-tax-intangibles-taxhttp://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2006-03-26/news/0603250545_1_force-wealthy-northerners-insidious-tax-intangibles-taxhttp://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2006-03-26/news/0603250545_1_force-wealthy-northerners-insidious-tax-intangibles-taxhttp://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Perry-plan.cfmhttp://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Perry-plan.cfmhttps://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/155https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/155https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/155https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/155http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Perry-plan.cfmhttp://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Perry-plan.cfmhttp://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2006-03-26/news/0603250545_1_force-wealthy-northerners-insidious-tax-intangibles-taxhttp://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2006-03-26/news/0603250545_1_force-wealthy-northerners-insidious-tax-intangibles-taxhttp://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2006-03-26/news/0603250545_1_force-wealthy-northerners-insidious-tax-intangibles-taxhttp://www.taxanalysts.com/taxcom/taxblog.nsf/Permalink/MSUN-9VQSPY?OpenDocumenthttp://www.taxanalysts.com/taxcom/taxblog.nsf/Permalink/MSUN-9VQSPY?OpenDocumenthttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrD-DMCPxLEhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrD-DMCPxLEhttps://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2014/06/25/92656/how-the-government-subsidizes-wealth-inequality/https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2014/06/25/92656/how-the-government-subsidizes-wealth-inequality/https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2014/06/25/92656/how-the-government-subsidizes-wealth-inequality/https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2014/06/25/92656/how-the-government-subsidizes-wealth-inequality/http://taxfoundation.org/blog/how-high-are-capital-gains-tax-rates-your-statehttp://taxfoundation.org/blog/how-high-are-capital-gains-tax-rates-your-statehttp://taxfoundation.org/blog/how-high-are-capital-gains-tax-rates-your-statehttp://www.tax.ohio.gov/ohio_individual/individual/annual_tax_rates.aspxhttp://www.tax.ohio.gov/ohio_individual/individual/annual_tax_rates.aspxhttp://www.itep.org/whopays/states/ohio.phphttp://www.itep.org/whopays/states/ohio.phphttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/05/20/which-states-tax-laws-widen-inequality/http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/05/20/which-states-tax-laws-widen-inequality/http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/05/20/which-states-tax-laws-widen-inequality/http://byron.marginalq.com/cooper_lutz_palumbo_2015.pdfhttp://byron.marginalq.com/cooper_lutz_palumbo_2015.pdfhttp://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-26/every-republican-running-for-president-votes-against-paid-family-leavehttp://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-26/every-republican-running-for-president-votes-against-paid-family-leavehttp://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-03-26/every-republican-running-for-president-votes-against-paid-family-leavehttp://www.legis.la.gov/legis/BillInfo.aspx?s=12RS&b=SB521&sbi=yhttp://www.legis.la.gov/legis/BillInfo.aspx?s=12RS&b=SB521&sbi=yhttp://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119701054.htmlhttp://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119701054.htmlhttp://www.bls.gov/cew/data.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iagauto.htmhttp://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats-Historic-Table-2http://www.irs.gov/uac/SOI-Tax-Stats-Historic-Table-2http://time.com/3773964/rand-paul-presidential-campaign-launch-speech-transcript/http://time.com/3773964/rand-paul-presidential-campaign-launch-speech-transcript/http://www.wsj.com/articles/mike-lee-and-marco-rubio-a-pro-family-pro-growth-tax-reform-1411426189http://www.wsj.com/articles/mike-lee-and-marco-rubio-a-pro-family-pro-growth-tax-reform-1411426189http://www.wsj.com/articles/mike-lee-and-marco-rubio-a-pro-family-pro-growth-tax-reform-1411426189https://www.facebook.com/jebbush/posts/640180486110998https://www.facebook.com/jebbush/posts/640180486110998https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSOHA646N/https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSOHA646N/


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18 Jim Tankersley, “The tax break for the rich that muddlesMarco Rubio’s middle class message,” Wonkblog, April14, 2015, available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/04/14/this-tax-break-for-the-rich-muddles-marco-rubios-middle-class-mes-sage/; Mike Lee and Marco Rubio, “Economic Growthand Family Fairness Tax Reform Plan” (Washington: U.S.Senate, 2015), available at http://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve/?File_id=2d839ff1-f995-427a-86e9-267365609942.

19 See Len Burman, “What is a Flat Tax? (Surprise! It’s a

VAT),” Forbes, October 24, 2011, available at http://www.forbes.com/sites/leonardburman/2011/10/24/what-is-a-flat-tax-surprise-it-is-a-vat/; Holley Ulbrich,“Flat Tax Is Class Warfare,” U.S. News & World Report , April12, 2010, available at http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2010/04/12/flat-tax-is-class-warfare; JamesPethokoukis, “The hard truth about the flat tax, FairTax,and where the US tax burden is headed: My Q&A withtax expert Alan Viard,” American Enterprise Institute,November 20, 2013, available at http://www.aei.org/publication/the-hard-truth-about-the-flat-tax-fairtax-and-where-the-us-tax-burden-is-headed-my-qa-with-tax-expert-alan-viard/.

20 Jeanne Sahadi, “What Rand Paul’s flat tax plan wouldlook like,” CNN Money, April 8, 2015, available at http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/07/pf/taxes/rand-paul-flat-tax/; Internal Revenue S ervice, “In 2015, Various TaxBenefits Increase Due to Inflation Adjustments,” Press

release, October 30, 2014, available at http://www.irs.gov/uac/Newsroom/In-2015,-Various-Tax-Benefits-Increase-Due-to-Inflation-Adjustments.

21 Michael Linden, “Middle Class Series: The Federal TaxCode and Income Inequality” (Washington: Centerfor American Progress, 2012), available at https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/tax-reform/report/2012/04/19/11404/the-federal-tax-code-and-income-inequality/.

22 Tax Policy Center, “Governor Rick Perry’s Tax ReformPlan.”

23 Tax Policy Center, “Presidential Campaign 2012: Gov.Perry’s Tax Reform Plan, Distribution of Federal TaxChange by Cash Income Percentile” (2011), availableat http://taxpolicycenter.org/numbers/displayatab.cfm?Docid=3224&DocTypeID=2.

24 Author’s analysis of the Tax Policy Center’s estimatesof tax savings for taxpayers by income level and theInternal Revenue Service Statistics of In come, the mostrecent year for which data are available. According tothe latter, 9,270 people in Ohio had taxable incomeof $1 million or more in 2012. The Tax Policy Centerestimates the average tax break for Americans withmore than $1 million in cash income to be $646,752.

The Tax Policy Center estimate assumed that theGeorge W. Bush-era tax cuts would expire; because theBush tax cuts were kept for all income levels but thehighest and the Tax Policy Center study assumes thatthey will be restored across the board, the $646,752estimate is likely lower than the tax cut that peopleearning more than $1 million would receive. See TaxPolicy Center, “Presidential Campaign 2012: Gov. Perry’s

Tax Reform Plan, Distribution of Federal Tax Change byCash Income Level”; Internal Revenue Service, “SOI Tax

Stats - Historic Table 2.”

25 Tax Policy Center, “Governor Rick Perry’s Tax ReformPlan.”

26 Rand Paul, “Blow Up the Tax Code and Start Over,” TheWall Street Journal , June 17, 2015, available at http://www.wsj.com/articles/blow-up-the-tax-code-and-start-over-1434582592.

27 Isidore, “Rand Paul’s flat tax proposal.”

28 Andrew Lundeen and Michael Schuyler, “The EconomicEffects of Rand Paul’s Tax Reform Plan,” The Tax PolicyBlog, June 18, 2015, available at http://taxfoundation.org/blog/economic-effects-rand-paul-s-tax-reform-plan. This estimate uses the Tax Foundation’s static,rather than dynamic, estimate. Using the dynamicestimate, the gap is larger: a 14 percent increase inafter-tax adjusted gross income for people earningbetween $40,000 and $50,000 in adjusted gross incomeand a 27 percent increase for filers with more than $1

million in adjusted gross income.

29 Ibid.; Bob McIntyre, “Rand Paul’s Tax Plan Would Blow a$15 Trillion Hole in the Federal Budget,” Tax Justice Blog,June 18, 2015, available at http://www.taxjusticeblog.org/archive/2015/06/rand_pauls_tax_plan_would_blow.php#.VbAAsflVhBd.

30 Nick Reid, “At first Politics and Pies, South Carolina Sen.Graham stresses national security,” The Concord Monitor ,March 9, 2015, available at http://politics.concordmoni-tor.com/2015/03/politics-election/at-first-politics-and-pies-south-carolina-sen-graham-stresses-national-security/.

31 Tax Policy Center, “National Retail Sales Tax: Who wouldbear the burden?”, available at http://www.taxpoli-cycenter.org/briefing-book/improve/retail/burden.cfm (last accessed July 20 15); William G. Gale, “Don’t

Buy The Sales Tax” (Washington: Brookings I nstitution,1998), available at http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/1998/03/taxes-gale.

32 Institute on Taxation & Economic Policy, “Who Pays?A Distributional Analysis Of The Tax Systems In All 50States, Fifth Edition” (2015), available at http://www.itep.org/pdf/whopaysreport.pdf .

33 Fair Tax Act of 2013, S. 122, 112 Cong. 1 sess. (Libraryof Congress, 2013), available at https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/122/cosponsors;Fair Tax Act of 2015.

34 Tax Policy Center, “National Retail Sales Tax: Who wouldbear the burden?”

35 Robert Higgs, “Kasich-O-Meter: State budget billreduced income tax rates across the board,” PolitiFact,

July 25, 2013, available at http://www.politifact.com/ohio/promises/kasich-o-meter/promise/766/phase-out-ohios-personal-income-tax/.

36 Wendy Patton, “Ohio ranks 18th in state and local taxinequality index,” Policy Matters Ohio, January 14,2015, available at http://www.policymattersohio.org/tax-report-jan2015; Randy Ludlow, “Kasich budgetincludes $2.5 billion sales-tax hike,” The ColumbusDispatch, February 3, 2015, available at http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2015/02/02/gov-

john-kasich-budget-proposal.html.

37 Debra Menk and Adam Cooper, “Contribution of theAutomotive Industry to the Economies of all FiftyStates and the Un ited States” (Ann Arbor, MI: Center forAutomotive Research, 2010), available at http://www.cargroup.org/?module=Publications&event=View&pubID=16.

38 Frank Manzo IV and Robert Bruno, “The Impact of Local‘Right-To-Work’ Zones” (La Grange, IL, and Champaign,IL: Illinois Economic Policy Institute and the Universityof Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2015), available athttp://www.ieanea.org/media/2015/04/RTWZonesre-port.pdf.

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lat-tax-surprise-it-is-a-vat/http://www.forbes.com/sites/leonardburman/2011/10/24/what-is-a-flat-tax-surprise-it-is-a-vat/http://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve/?File_id=2d839ff1-f995-427a-86e9-267365609942http://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve/?File_id=2d839ff1-f995-427a-86e9-267365609942http://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve/?File_id=2d839ff1-f995-427a-86e9-267365609942http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/04/14/this-tax-break-for-the-rich-muddles-marco-rubios-middle-class-message/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/04/14/this-tax-break-for-the-rich-muddles-marco-rubios-middle-class-message/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/04/14/this-tax-break-for-the-rich-muddles-marco-rubios-middle-class-message/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/04/14/this-tax-break-for-the-rich-muddles-marco-rubios-middle-class-message/


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39 Keith Miller and David Madland, “New Census DataOnce Again Illustrate Importance of Unions to theMiddle Class,” Center for American Progress ActionFund, September 18, 2014, available at https://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/labor/news/2014/09/18/97477/new-census-data-once-again-illustrate-importance-of-unions-to-the-middle-class/.

40 Elise Gould and Will Kimball, “‘Right-to-Work’ States StillHave Lower Wages” (Washington: Economic Policy Insti-tute, 2015), available at http://www.epi.org/publica-tion/right-to-work-states-have-lower-wages/.

41 Associated Press, “Wisconsin Close to Becoming 25thRight-To-Work State,” The New York Times, March 15,2015, available at http://www.nytimes.com/apon-line/2015/03/05/us/ap-us-xgr-right-to-work-wisconsin.html.

42 National Conference of State Legislatures, “Right-To-Work Resources,” available at http://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/right-to-work-laws-and-bills.aspx (last accessed July 2015).

43 Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Local Area UnemploymentStatistics,” available at http://www.bls.gov/lau/ (lastaccessed July 2015).

44 Ibid.

45 See Steven Greenhouse, “Wisconsin’s Legacy for

Unions,” The New York Times, February 22, 2014, avail-able at http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/busi-ness/wisconsins-legacy-for-unions.html?_r=0; RussellBerman, “Scott Walker, Anti-Union Man,” The Atlantic , March 9, 2015, available at http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/03/scott-walker-anti-union-man/387283/; Jason Stein and Meg Kissinger, “ScottWalker signs right-to-work bill,”Milwaukee Journal Sen-tinel , March 9, 2015, available at http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/scott-walker-signs-right-to-work-bill-b99457819z1-295609181.html.

46 Stein and Kissinger, “Scott Walker signs right-to-workbill.”

47 National Right-to-Work Act , S. 204, 113 Cong. 1 sess.(Library of Congress, 2013), available at https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/204.

48 National Right-to-Work Act , S. 391, 114 Cong. 1 sess.(Library of Congress, 2015), available at https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/391.

49 Jeb Bush, “Right-to-work victory in Michigan,” TheWashington Times, December 12, 2012, available athttp://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/dec/12/right-to-work-victory-in-michigan/?page=all; NationalRight-to-Work Act , S. 204; National Right-to-Work Act , S.391. Sen. Rubio co-sponsored in 2013 only. Sens. Cruzand Graham co-sponsored in 2013 and 2015.

50 Jim Siegel and Joe Vardon, “Unions get revenge asIssue 2 fails,” The Columbus Dispatch, November 9, 2011,available at http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/11/08/1-issue-2-election.html.

51 Menk and Cooper, “Contribution of the AutomotiveIndustry to the Economies of all Fifty States and the

United States.”

52 Sean McAlinden and Debra Menk, “The Effect onthe U.S. Economy of the Successful Restructuring ofGeneral Motors” (Ann Arbor, MI: Center for AutomotiveResearch, 2013), available at http://www.cargroup.org/?module=Publications&event=View&pubID=102.

53 See ibid.; Alan Reuther, “By Saving Billions in RetireeHealth and Pension Benefits, Auto Bailouts Were anEven Bigger Success Than Acknowledged,” WorkingEconomics Blog, March 12, 2015, available at http://www.epi.org/blog/by-saving-billions-in-retiree-health-and-pension-benefits-auto-bailouts-were-an-even-bigger-success-than-acknowledged/; Neal Boudette, “Did Detroit Receive America’s MostSuccessful Bailout?”, Corporate Intelligence, December9, 2013, available at http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/12/09/did-detroit-receive-americas-most-successful-bailout/; William Thomas Cain, “Our

view: Admit it, the auto bailout is working,” USA Today , June 15, 2011, available at http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2011-06-15-auto-bailout-worked_n.htm.

54 Author’s analysis of employment in the auto industryin the years following the auto rescue—between2010 and 2014—using the Bureau of Labor Statisticsdefinition of core auto industry j obs. See Bureau ofLabor Statistics, “Automotive Industry : Employment,Earnings, and Hours.” Data for Ohio auto industry jobgrowth were obtained through the U.S. Bureau of LaborStatistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.See Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Quarterly Census ofEmployment and Wages.” Growth in automotive jobsin Ohio is compared with job growth in Ohio overallfrom 2010 to 2014, also using the Quarterly Census ofEmployment and Wages. Data for 2014 are preliminary.

55 Ibid.

56 Chris Isidore, “3 answers to the auto bailout debate,”CNN Money, September 6, 2012, available at http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/autos/auto-bailout/; Ste-ven Rattner, “Delusions About the Detroit Bailout,” TheNew York Times, February 23, 2012, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/24/opinion/delusions-about-the-detroit-bailout.html.

57 Matthew Dolan, “Detroit Trip Puts Jeb Bush’s BailoutStance in Spotlight,” Washington Wire, February4, 2015, available at http://blogs.wsj.com/wash-wire/2015/02/04/detroit-trip-puts-jeb-bushs-bailout-stance-in-spotlight/.

58 Tim Skubick, “Presidential hopeful Ted Cruz appearsin Howell,” My Fox Detroit, June 3, 2015, availableat http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/29235058/

presidential-hopeful-ted-cruz-appears-in-howell.

59 David Shepardson, “Rubio criticizes $85 billion autobailout,” The Detroit News, April 17, 2015, avail-able at http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2015/04/17/rubio-criticizes-billion-auto-bail-out/25950819/.

60 Rick Perry and Mark Sanford, “Governors AgainstState Bailouts,” The Wall Street Journal , December2, 2008, available at http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122818170073571049.

61 “Breadwinners” data are taken from Sarah Jane Glynnand Jeff Chapman’s analysis of Miriam King and oth-ers, “Integrated Public Use Microdata Series, CurrentPopulation Survey: Version 3.0,” available at https://cps.ipums.org/cps/index.shtml (last accessed July2015). Income data are from Kids Count Data Center,

“Children Under Age 6 With All Available Parents In TheLabor Force,” available at http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/tables/5057-children-under-age-6-with-alla-vailable-parents-in-the-labor-force#detailed/2/2-52/false/36,868,867,133,38/any/11472,11473 (last ac-cessed July 2015).

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illion-auto-bailout/25950819/http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122818170073571049http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122818170073571049https://cps.ipums.org/cps/index.shtmlhttps://cps.ipums.org/cps/index.shtmlhttps://cps.ipums.org/cps/index.shtmlhttps://cps.ipums.org/cps/index.shtmlhttp://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122818170073571049http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122818170073571049http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2015/04/17/rubio-criticizes-billion-auto-bailout/25950819/http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2015/04/17/rubio-criticizes-billion-auto-bailout/25950819/http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2015/04/17/rubio-criticizes-billion-auto-bailout/25950819/http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/29235058/presidential-hopeful-ted-cruz-appears-in-howellhttp://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/29235058/presidential-hopeful-ted-cruz-appears-in-howellhttp://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/02/04/detroit-trip-puts-jeb-bushs-bailout-stance-in-spotlight/http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/02/04/detroit-trip-puts-jeb-bushs-bailout-stance-in-spotlight/http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/02/04/detroit-trip-puts-jeb-bushs-bailout-stance-in-spotlight/http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/24/opinion/delusions-about-the-detroit-bailout.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/24/opinion/delusions-about-the-detroit-bailout.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/24/opinion/delusions-about-the-detroit-bailout.htmlhttp://money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/autos/auto-bailout/http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/autos/auto-bailout/http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2011-06-15-auto-bailout-worked_n.htmhttp://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2011-06-15-auto-bailout-worked_n.htmhttp://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2011-06-15-auto-bailout-worked_n.htmhttp://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/12/09/did-detroit-receive-americas-most-successful-bailout/http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/12/09/did-detroit-receive-americas-most-successful-bailout/http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2013/12/09/did-detroit-receive-americas-most-successful-bailout/http://www.epi.org/blog/by-saving-billions-in-retiree-health-and-pension-benefits-auto-bailouts-were-an-even-bigger-success-than-acknowledged/http://www.epi.org/blog/by-saving-billions-in-retiree-health-and-pension-benefits-auto-bailouts-were-an-even-bigger-success-than-acknowledged/http://www.epi.org/blog/by-saving-billions-in-retiree-health-and-pension-benefits-auto-bailouts-were-an-even-bigger-success-than-acknowledged/http://www.epi.org/blog/by-saving-billions-in-retiree-health-and-pension-benefits-auto-bailouts-were-an-even-bigger-success-than-acknowledged/http://www.cargroup.org/?module=Publications&event=View&pubID=102http://www.cargroup.org/?module=Publications&event=View&pubID=102http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/11/08/1-issue-2-election.htmlhttp://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2011/11/08/1-issue-2-election.htmlhttp://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/dec/12/right-to-work-victory-in-michigan/?page=allhttp://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/dec/12/right-to-work-victory-in-michigan/?page=allhttps://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/391https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/391https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/204https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/204http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/scott-walker-signs-right-to-work-bill-b99457819z1-295609181.htmlhttp://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/scott-walker-signs-right-to-work-bill-b99457819z1-295609181.htmlhttp://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/scott-walker-signs-right-to-work-bill-b99457819z1-295609181.htmlhttp://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/03/scott-walker-anti-union-man/387283/http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/03/scott-walker-anti-union-man/387283/http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/03/scott-walker-anti-union-man/387283/http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/business/wisconsins-legacy-for-unions.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/business/wisconsins-legacy-for-unions.html?_r=0http://www.bls.gov/lau/http://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/right-to-work-laws-and-bills.aspxhttp://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/right-to-work-laws-and-bills.aspxhttp://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/right-to-work-laws-and-bills.aspxhttp://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/03/05/us/ap-us-xgr-right-to-work-wisconsin.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/03/05/us/ap-us-xgr-right-to-work-wisconsin.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/03/05/us/ap-us-xgr-right-to-work-wisconsin.htmlhttp://www.epi.org/publication/right-to-work-states-have-lower-wages/http://www.epi.org/publication/right-to-work-states-have-lower-wages/https://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/labor/news/2014/09/18/97477/new-census-data-once-again-illustrate-importance-of-unions-to-the-middle-class/https://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/labor/news/2014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62 Peter Moore, “Poll Results: Sick Leave,” YouGov, Febru-ary 2, 2015, available at https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/02/02/poll-results-sick-leave/.

63 National Partnership for Women & Families, “OhioansNeed Paid Sick Days” (2015), available at http://www.nationalpartnership.org/research-library/campaigns/psd/ohio.pdf.

64 Marley, “Bill Voiding Sick Leave Sent to Walker.”

65 Louisiana State Legislature, “Louisiana Act 667.”

66 National Partnership for Women & Families, “Paid SickDays Preemption Bills 2015,” available at http://www.nationalpartnership.org/issues/work-family/preemp-tion-map.html (last accessed July 2015).

67 Weigel, “Every Republican Running for President VotesAgainst Paid Sick Leave; It Passes Anyway.”

68 “Chapter 4: Higher Education.” In Jennifer Erickson,ed., “The Middle Class S queeze” (Washington: Centerfor American Progress, 2014), available at https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/MCS_4HigherEd.pdf .

69 The Institute for College Access & Success, “StudentDebt and the Class of 2013” (2014), available at http://ticas.org/sites/default/files/legacy/fckfiles/pub/clas-sof2013.pdf .

70 Author’s calculation of National Center for EducationStatistics database regarding average undergradu-ate tuition and fees and room and board rates paidbetween the 2000-01 and 2013-14 school years by full-time-equivalent students in degree-granting institu-tions. See National Center for Education Statistics, “Di-gest of Education Statistics,” See also Rachel Plowden,“Tuition Proposal May Help Students,” The NewsRecord , February 15, 2009, available at http://www.newsrecord.org/tuition-proposal-may-help-students/article_e5830328-971f-51bd-9b67-56b109e9842f.html.

71 See Kristen Zenz, “UT vows to keep tuition down,” Val-leyCentral.com, July 7, 2009, available at http://www.valleycentral.com/news/story.aspx?id=325981#.VaU-crPlVhBc; The Miami Student , “University tuition policyfor ’07-’08 still undecided,” March 30, 2007, available athttp://miamistudent.net/?p=112385; Allie Grasgreen,“High Stakes In Ohio,” Inside Higher Ed , October 27,2010, available at https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2010/10/27/ohio; Plowden, “Tuition Proposal MayHelp Students.”

72 Author’s calculation of National Center for Education

Statistics database regarding average undergraduatetuition and required fees paid between the 2000-01and 2013-14 school years by full-time-equivalentstudents in degree-granting institutions. See NationalCenter for Education Statistics, “Digest of EducationStatistics.”

73 Ibid.

74 Ibid.

75 Ibid.

76 Julia O’Donoghue, “Cutting Louisiana higher educationby $300 million, putting it into perspective,” The Times-Picayune, January 12, 2015, available at http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/01/what_does_it_mean_to_cut_300_m.html.

77 The Ohio State University, “Statistical Summary,” avail-able at https://www.osu.edu/osutoday/StatisticalSum-mary2014.pdf (last accessed July 2015).

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