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The Black Swan:
Why We Do Not See
Rare Events
The Happy Turkey
Food per day in kg
Days of life
30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240
Christmas Day
Why do we behave like happy turkeys?
A psychological approach
based on
Thinking, Fast and Slowby Nobel Prize winner
Daniel Kahneman
Overview
•Our mind: a machine that produces associations
•Priming (creating a basic attitude)
▫Lady Macbeth effect▫Honesty Box effect
• Environmental Priming
ASSOCIATIONS
rat
•Pupils widen •Face twists•Expression of disgust•Move away from the sight•Heart rate increases•Hair on the arms rises•Start to sweat→ We react as if the experience was real
Associations:Automatic reactions to the word
(and to the images associated with it)
Idea 4
Emotions + feelings
facial expressions gestures
Associations
Idea 5
Idea 3
Idea 1
Idea 2
memoriesactivated
Idea “RAT“
stronger memory
EXPERIMENT
SO_P
Priming(automatische Aktivierung von Einstellungen z. B. in Vorurteilen/Stereotypen)
SOUP
SOAP
The idea of “food” primes the idea of “soup”
The idea of “bath” primes the idea of “soap”
unconscious
unconscious
Lady Macbeth (Shakespeare)
▫ Lady Macbeth wants to become the queen of Scotland▫ her husband (Macbeth) is not a king▫ Lady M. sends husband to kill king Duncan▫ Macbeth kills the king but forgets to take dagger (Dolch)
▫ Lady M. fetches dagger▫ her hands covered with blood▫ washes her hands (thinking the sin is gone, too)▫ Later: nightmares
her subconscious (Unterbewusstsein) stored picture of bloody hands => wants to wash them all the time
Experiment Priming: “Lie to your friend …”
… on the phone!” (Group 1) … in an email!” (Group 2)
“Go to a shop and buy mouthwash or soap.”
What do you think the people in each group bought?
Group 1 => prefer mouthwash over soapGroup 2 => prefer soap over mouthwash
Lady Macbeth Effect
Honesty Box Experiment
• Office kitchen
• Minimum contribution: 15 pennies
• One week: picture
• One week: eyes
When do you think the people paid more?
Source: „Thinking , Fast and Slow“ (Daniel Kahneman)
Kahneman’s Results
Time
Actions
Priming and environmental protection
All the arctic ice melts: => Sea level rises by 6 m