The Birth of Statistics

The Social Mechanics of Crime: Adolphe Quetelet

StatisticsCentral component of criminological theories

that seek to explain criminality

But what do statistics tell us?1.Norms

Standard Ordinary

2.Rates Indicators of trends Used to predict

Birth of Statistics (early 1800s): Social Context

Democratic State Emergence of Welfare State (taxation)

Industrial Revolution Model of factory/society Duty tied to rational production

Urbanization Dangerous Classes :

not controlled by ideology of industry or the social contract

Counts related to diseases – moral panics

Birth of Statistics (early 1800s): Social Context

Media Emerging literacy Moral Panics

Overreaction about particular groups

Science: Desire to control nature

Natural laws /social laws Personal freedom

limited by environment & constitution

StatisticsDesire of Government to control population Practices of enumeration

Previously for taxation Training /standards of conduct Church & military

State encroaches on social life Knowledge on citizens expands Welfare state (‘programs’ & tax payers)

Crime StatisticsCompte 1827 General record of all criminal offences in Paris Divided by types of justice system (civic or

criminal)

Records indicate:1. Number of previous offences2. If accused was acquitted or convicted3. Punishment (if convicted)4. Time of year of offence5. Age, sex, occupation and education of accused

Became more detailed over time, looking for Became more detailed over time, looking for correlatescorrelates

Records about ‘habits’ begin to circulate...Records about ‘habits’ begin to circulate...

Adolphe Quetelet 1796-1874

Key: methodological & conceptual contributions

Biography Avoided deterministic

arguments of later positivism Known for scientific rigor Math & Astronomy Academic (not concerned with

crime orig.)

Social Mechanics

Interest in applying natural laws to human actions:

Social facts: social laws governing societies

Laws identified through analysis of statistics Think about the criteria of

critical theory…..

Quetelet’s 3 Statistical Rules

1. Average ‘man’ = natural distribution

Bell curve (midpoint) Average person = centre of gravity

Physical characteristics of a population Moral statistics (suicide, marriage, etc)

KEY: Individual differences not as important as the SUM of individuals (Society)

Quetelet’s Statistical Rules

2. Law of large numbers Need a large sample

3. Law of Regularity Changes are rare Predictability

Moral StatisticsStatistics indicate social problems Crime, suicide, etc...

Social laws are more complex than natural law because of freewillbecause of freewill:: Not reducible to individuals Space for freedom to act Laws govern human behaviour Humans somewhat predictable (social

beings)

We study moral statistics today...We study moral statistics today...

Quetelet’s Analysis of Crime 1826-1829

Consistency of Crime Types of murders and

property offences Regularities in court

practicesPatterns exist!

Dark Figure of Crime Aware problems of statistics

Quetelet’s Analysis of Crime 1826-1829

Criminal Propensity Everyone has potential

to be ‘criminal’ *

Propensity, not determinism!

Propensity could be visualized Probability & chance IndividualityIndividuality was the

‘chance’ that impacted the ‘probability’ of criminality

Quetelet’s Analysis of Crime 1826-1829Individuality: Upbringing Ability to improve situation

Young males, poor uneducated without employment or in lowly employment would have a greater propensity to commit crimes.

Poverty and lack of education did not cause crime!

Extreme disparity (temptation & suffering) did....

Quetelet’s Analysis of Crime 1826-1829Society as the cause of crime: Society ‘prepares’ crime, the

guilty are the instruments by which it is executed

Social conditions Social conditions are more influential than individual willindividual will

Quetelet’s thesis supports: Social transformation Less focus on incarceration as

deterrence