INTERNATIONAL BIRD STRIKE COMMITTEE IBSC26/WP-SA2 Warsaw, 5-9 May 2003

THE BIRD STRIKE PROBLEM IN THE VIEW OF FLIGHT SAFETY FOUNDATION

Bob Vandel Executive Vice President Flight Safety Foundation

Briefing Outline

Flight Safety Foundation capabilities andlimitationsSetting Priorities

Data driven approachRisk management approach

Global reach of FSFFoundation’s MissionProposal on working with IBSC

Founded in 1947By leaders of the aviation industry

To provide a neutral forum where the industrycould meet to discuss safety matters

To provide a central clearinghouse for theexchange of aviation safety information

Charter Statement

IndependentInternationalObjectiveNot-for-profit

Russia (CIS)

JapanTaiwan

West Africa

Australia

South Eastern Europe

FSF Worldwide Chapter

FSF

Independent, but modeled after FSF

Iceland

905 Members in 151 Countries

May 2003

Airlines (incl. all IATA)Airframe and enginemanufacturersEquipment suppliersCorporate operatorsInsurance companiesHelicopter operators

Military organizationsRegulatory authoritiesAviation lawyersAirportsFixed-base operatorsResearch institutionsAcademia

Funded by the aviation industry

FSF is Data Driven

Examine the statistics Prioritize Address the biggest problemsSafety is the sum of all the parts

Aircraft (Design,Crew,Operation)System (ATC,Regulatory Oversight)Ground (Maintenance,Ramp,Airport,Enviro

FSF Organization

ADVISORY COMMITTEES

Board of

Governors

FSF

Membership

International European Corporate ICARUS

Honorary

AdvisoryBoard

Air Transport Is Already SafeWorldwide Commercial Jet Fleet Accident Rate

9800

Accidents will Increase

15

5

20

25

30

35

10

0

30

40

50

60

70

20

10

0

Dep

artu

res (

Mill

ions

)/Rat

e Pe

rM

illio

n

Accidents

Accidents1

Traffic Growth2

Accident Rate3

1Based on current accident rate2Based on industry estimate3Based on current accident rate

Load,taxi,

unload

Exposure, percentage of flight time

Percentage of accidents

Worldwide Jet Operations (average flight time 1.6 hours) Excludes: sabotage, military action, turbulence injury and evacuation injury.

Finalapp

Takeoff Initialclimb

Climb Cruise Descent Initialapproach

Landing

Flaps retracted

1% 1% 13% 60% 10% 11% 3% 1%Nav fixOuter marker

When Aircraft AccidentsHappen

49.1%

5.8%6.5%7.8%12.8%5.0%

6.4% 6.6% 19.8%29.3%

4%

Types of Aircraft Accidents

Total fatalities = 7,484CFIT = Controlled Flight into TerrainRTO = Rejected takeoffNote: Some non-onboard fatalities are included in this chart.

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0Loss ofcontrolin flight

CFIT In-flightfire

Sabo-tage

Midaircollision

Hijack Ice/snow

Landing Windshear

Fuelexhaus-

tion

OtherRunwayincursion

RTO

2,3962,228

760607

506306

162 128 119 113 111 45 3

Fata

litie

s

Airplane

Percentage of current accident rate

Primary Accident Causes

Other

0 10020 40 60 80

Human error

Prime Safety Concerns

CFITApproach and landingLoss of controlHuman Factors

CAST, JSSI and IATA have since adopted verysimilar priorities

Past AccidentImprovements

Future Accident Reduction

In the future we must be proactiveMust use risk management techniques togreater extentIdentify and eliminate adverse trendsStop accidents before they happen

Risk Management

Hazard: Something that can cause harm

What is Risk:The probability a hazard will cause harm orThe possibility of undesired consequence

Risk Management

Types of Risk:

Physical

Economic

Productivity

Professional

Social

Risk Management Basics

How to measure risk:

Risk = Probability X Severity

Risk Management Steps

Identify Hazards

Evaluate Risks

Make a Decision

Evaluate/Feedback

Risk Management Example

Crossing the StreetWalk across without lookingWait until traffic slowsCross at crosswalkCross using skyway or tunnelDon’t cross the street

Other FSF Safety Initiatives

FatigueBird strikesRunway incursionsCommunicationsIcingWake vortices

Risk management approach

Other safety initiatives ICAO (Air Navigation Commission)

Industry Safety Advisory Board NASA Safety Research Team

Executive Oversight Committee Aviation Safety Alliance

Agenda Advisory Committee Transportation Research Board

Future Air Transport Systems Dutch Government (RLD)

Schiphol Airport

Industry Recognition of FSF 1994 Aviation Week Magazine

‘Laurel Award’ 1995 SSAE

‘Distinguished Contribution Award’ 1997 Air Transport World Magazine

‘Airline Industry Service Award’ 1998 Ground Equipment Magazine

‘Prillitzer Prize’ 1999 ICAO ‘Edward Warner Award’

Gold Medal to President Emeritus 2000 Embry-Riddle University ‘Pinnacle Award’

Flight International

Industry Award for

Safetypresented to

ight Safety FoundationSingapore, February 2000ongratulations to all 150+

F members who contributed to this effort

Industry Awardfor

Safety andTraining

Flight International

199820002002

Runner-up 2001

presented to

Flight Safety Foundation

Flight Safety Foundation

“ The Flight Safety Foundation hasbecome a leader in influencing the

formation of airline safety cultures andin implementing worldwide accident

prevention progammes ”

Dr.Assad Kotaite, President of the Council, ICAO 14 September, 1999

FSF Mission

Study flight safety to anticipate andidentify problemsSeek solutions to those problemsDisseminate flight safety information

Anticipate and Identify

FSF staff = 18 peopleTechnical = 3Publications = 9Membership = 2Administration = 2Finance = 2

Advisory committeesIAC = 55EAC = 32CAC = 28

Strategic alliancesIATA/ATAIFALPA/ALPAICAOIFATCA

Think tankICARUS committee

Cooperative efforts

Resources Multipliers

Anticipate and Identify (cont)

IATAERAATANBAAIFALPAISASI

ACIAAAEATCAAAPANATANLR

Cooperative EffortsICAOANAESAERAeSIFAAOPA

ECACCANSOEAAUKFSCIFSCAIAA

Worldwide accident investigation communityInternational regulatory authorities

Many othersIBSC (?)

Seek solutions

FSF Industry task forces:Controlled flight into terrain accident reductionApproach and landing accident reductionUsage of flight operations quality assuranceWind shear mitigationElimination of loss of controlGround accident preventionUltra-long range operationsProtection of sources of safety information

Disseminate InformationMajor safety seminars

International Air Safety SeminarEuropean Aviation Safety SeminarCorporate Aviation Safety Seminar

Joint conferencesInternational Federation of AirworthinessInternational Air Transport AssociationEuropean Regions Airline AssociationNational Business Aviation AssociationInternational Federation of Airline Pilots AssociationSociety of Automotive Engineers

Publications and special reports60 publications annually

Comprehensive libraryAward winning website

Disseminate Information

AdvocacyMultiple appearances/speeches aroundthe globeInternationally recognized awards programIndustry Spokesman

TelevisionRadioPrint media

ICAOIFALPA

IATAFSF

IFALPA

CIS

FSF

IATA

FSF

DGCA’s

Disseminate Information

CAACJSSI

PAAST

Airframe

Mfg

ICAO

IFALPA

FSF

DGCA’s

ICAOIATA

Airframe

Mfg

Airlines

IFALPA

FSF

DGCA’s

ICAOIATA

Airframe

Mfg

Airlines

Concept• Working together• Common Strategy

for AccidentPrevention

• Data Analysis• Data Driven Plan

Not yet involved

Currently involved

AFRASCO AAPA

FSF

FSFASFA

CAST

FSF

CASA

CAA

FSF

Disseminate InformationAviation Safety Services:

Cross-pollination of best practicesInternal Safety Evaluations and Operational Safety Audits (airlines, airports, etc.)Corporate fleet audit programsOn-demand charter operator evaluations

Industrial and workplace safety evaluations Data systems and analysis

Tremendous network to get information to theaviation industry

Hypothetical Bird Strike

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0Loss ofcontrolin flight

CFIT In-flightfire

Sabo-tage

Midaircollision

BirdStrike

Ice/snow

Landing Windshear

Fuelexhaus-

tion

OtherRunwayincursion

RTO

2,3962,228

760607

506350

162 128 119 113 111 45 3

Fata

litie

s

A big-twin downed by birdstrike

Risk Management - Severity high but probability can be mitigated

Bird strikes are a risk

Manufacturers can design to reduce the severityIBSC & FSF can work together to reduce theprobabilityIBSC has the expertise to mitigate the probabilityFSF has an aviation safety information network

International reach to extend your audienceGet your message to wider audience

IBSC & FSF can cooperate by:Linking of websitesIBSC presentations at FSF seminars/conferencesIBSC submitting articles for FSF publication

Risk = Probability X Severity

These joint efforts will reduce the risk ofbi d ik

Flight Safety FoundationAn International Organization for Everyone

Concerned with the Safety of Flight