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The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

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Page 1: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea
Page 2: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

The Bill Gates Fallacy

• Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich.

• Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day.

• I have no idea how useful my experience could be to you.

Page 3: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

My Life Goals• ≤4yo: mommy, Underdog.

• 5: palaeontologist

• 8: Jane Goodall

• 11: Spock

• 15: John Lennon

• 19: Yoko Ono

• 21: A Professor…

• but of what?

Page 4: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

• 16-20 Temp (office worker, factory, product surveys, reservation agent for EconoLodge).

• 18-22 Tutor for Computer Science

• 21-26 Programmer (Finance)

• 26-36 Grad student (& consultant to NCR, a Student Loan company, LEGO)

• 37 Postdoc (Psych)

• 38-45 Lecturer (CS)

• 46-50 Reader (CS)

What I’ve Actually

Been

Page 5: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

stuff I’ve studied

Page 6: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea
Page 7: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea
Page 8: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Monkey Sociality & Reconciliation

Tonkean Macaques, an Egalitarian Species(video: Bernard Thierry)

Page 9: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea
Page 10: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Altruists & Knowledge lifespan 40 versus 50 cycles

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Cycles

Prop

ortio

n of

Tal

kers

01

23

45

67

Aver

age

Know

ledg

e0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

CyclesPr

opor

tion

of T

alke

rs

01

23

45

67

Aver

age

Know

ledg

e

Note cultural accumulation (peaks when higher proportion of altruists / density of communicators).

➨➨

The Evolution of Communication

40 50

(Bryson, Lowe, Bilovich & Čače under revision)

Page 11: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Remarkably similar in their weirdness.

Why Lemurs & Hyenas have Matriarchies

Page 12: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea
Page 13: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Luck

• Applied to University of Chicago because it was 15 minutes from The Loop.

• Never had a real partner in Chicago.

• Applied to Edinburgh because it was pretty.

• Applied to MIT to get a guy to do the same (he didn’t get in.)

• Fortunately.

Page 14: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Luck = Opportunity + Preparation

• MIT my year got 1500 applicants for 30 places; 120 were qualified. Prof. I wanted to work with took 8 students that year.

• was rejected by my “fall back” schools.

• Flown to Copenhagen because talked to women in ICA café after Royal Society meeting I’d signed up to attend.

• Flown to Beijing because trained to Brussels because accepted talk in Nottingham.

Page 15: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Principles (Heuristics)• Go to the best place you have an offer.

• Never lie on your CV or at an interview, except about how long you expect to stay.

• Pick jobs where you have something good to offer them, but you’ll also learn something / get a skill you want.

• Talk to anyone who seems smart / interesting and is standing on their own.

Page 16: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Academic Heuristics• Never talk to people from your own group

at a conference.

• Always make friends with your boss’ boss.

• Go to conferences to learn fields (pay first, expense later.)

• Never say no to an invited talk (where they pay travel.) Even when you were going to a quartet at Peter Gabriel’s music studio.

• Good partners are rarer than good jobs.

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Topics

• Ethical Principle of Transparency

• relating to… Artificial Intelligence

• relating to… Romantic Companions

• Recommendations

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Topics

• Ethical Principle of Transparency

• relating to… Artificial Intelligence

• relating to… Romantic Compan

• ions

Page 20: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

UK EPSRC Robotics Retreat (2010)

Listed authors of the Principles: Margaret Boden, Joanna Bryson, Darwin Caldwell, Kerstin Dautenhahn, Lilian Edwards, Sarah Kember, Paul Newman, Vivienne Parry, Geoff Pegman, Tom Rodden, Tom Sorell, Mick Wallis, Blay Whitby, & Alan Winfield

• British research council that funds (among other things) artificial intelligence and robotics.

• Invited interdisciplinary retreat to consider ethical issues relating to robotics.

Page 21: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

UK EPSRC’s Principles of Robotics (2011)

1. Robots are multi-use tools. Robots should not be designed solely or primarily to kill or harm humans, except in the interests of national security.

2. Humans, not robots, are responsible agents. Robots should be designed & operated as far as is practicable to comply with existing laws & fundamental rights & freedoms, including privacy.

3. Robots are products. They should be designed using processes which assure their safety and security. (of 5...) Joanna J. Bryson, Kerstin Dautenhahn and Geoff Pegman, “Man and the

machine”, letter published online, The Economist, 16 June 2012.Joanna J. Bryson “The Making of the EPSRC Principles of Robotics”, The AISB Quarterly, (133) Spring 2012.

Page 22: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

UK EPSRC’s Principles of Robotics (2011)

4. Robots are manufactured artefacts. They should not be designed in a deceptive way to exploit vulnerable users; instead their machine nature should be transparent.

5. The person with legal responsibility for a robot should be attributed. [like automobile titles]

4 = Principle of Transparency

Page 23: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Concerns of the Principles’ Authors

• People should not be tricked into spending too much resource on robots out of a false sense of obligation.

• But companionship might have health benefits.

∴ Transparency shouldn’t interfere with “the moment”, but should be available and comprehensible to a significant portion of society.

Page 24: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Topics

• Ethical Principle of Transparency

• relating to… Artificial Intelligence

• relating to… Romantic Companions

Page 25: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

MIT 1993-1994

Phil Kime(2011)

• “Unethical to unplug Cog” – passing PhD students (‘brain’ didn’t work, wasn’t earthed, seldom on).

• “I got called conservative for saying robots might not take over.” – Rod Brooks 1994

Page 26: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

1993

Phil Kime(2011)

• “Just Another Artifact: Ethics and the Empirical Experience of AI”, Fifteenth International Congress on Cybernetics, pp. 385–390, Namur, 1998.

• “Just an Artifact: Why Machines are Perceived as Moral Agents”, IJCAI 2011, Barcelona, Spain, pp. 1641–1646.

Bryson & Kime

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Page 28: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Bryson & Kime (1998)

• Ethical instincts (and ethics itself) is rooted in identity / identification.

• Humans (mistakenly) place language, mathematics & reason as core to humanity, because these discriminate us from animals.

• Once we have empirical experience of AI, this confusion might go away.

• Might even inform our (human) ethics.

Page 29: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

University of Bath Intelligent Control & Cognitive Systems

Ignore the robots; listen to the students.

Page 30: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

• Final year student in a leading computer science undergraduate degree.

• Built & programmed the robot (with a partner.)

Page 31: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Topics

• Ethical Principle of Transparency

• relating to… Artificial Intelligence

• relating to… Romantic Companions

Page 32: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea
Page 33: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea
Page 34: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Bonding and Physical Affection

• Physical contact may be a form of bond-testing, establishing trust (Zahavi 1977).

• Physical intimacy allows checking of health, discovery of better mutual equlibria for cooperation, coalitions (Roughgarden et al 2006).

Page 35: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

“People want to make AI they owe obligations to, can fall in love with, etc. –

‘equals’ over which we have complete dominion.”

My standard ethics talk:

Bryson & Kime (2011)

Page 36: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea
Page 37: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

I still suspect it matters that we ‘makers’ know how our robots work.

For makers, AI is like a movie.

photo from: Tony Belpaeme

We can immerse ourselves with characters we know are fiction.

But for others, could it be deception?

Page 38: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

That thing unspoken• Are we going to love robots?

• Yes, obviously.

• Will they love us?

• We can make them arbitrarily monogamous.

• We can link their self-image to their model of their owner.

• Probably never as many interconnections (identity, perceptible bonds) as evolution gave us.

Page 39: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

People will get attached to robots.

People may enjoy the sensation of love with robots like they do fear in films.

But the illusion or even the fact of bonding by the robot should still be made transparent.Conclusion /

Recommendation

Page 40: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Thanks for PicturesDan Pope @danielthepopeAngelica Lim @petitegeekTony Belpaeme @TonyBelpaeme Alex Birch https://www.youtube.com/user/BirchlabsGoogle Images

Thanks for your attention.

Page 41: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea
Page 42: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

Bath Computer Science has PhD Studentships!!

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Page 44: The Bill Gates Fallacy · The Bill Gates Fallacy • Dropping out of college doesn’t make many people rich. • Neither does playing basketball 10 hours a day. • I have no idea

We Get to Decide...• Whether robot minds are unique or have

autosave and offsite backup.

• Whether robots suffer (permanently change their behaviour) when they are neglected, insulted or constrained.

• Whether robots compete with us (or our customers) for time, money & materials.

We are obliged to make robots we are not obliged to.