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The Big Eight for UK Real EstateUnderstanding the key sustainability trends and what they mean for your business
Beth AmbroseAssociate DirectorJLL Sustainability Services
Megatrends affecting all business
Trends are not ‘new’
Unparalleled speed of evolution
Trends are interconnected
The Big Eight for UK Real Estate
Trends filtered and analysed
Implications by asset type
Proposed solutions to get
you thinking
4
The Big Eight for UK Real Estate
5
In 2030…
50% of power from renewables
11 million will live alone
50% of workforce will face at least 1
long-term health issue
Up to half a foot rise in sea level
50% more people over
65(from 2010)
190,000 new jobs in low-carbon economy
People with care needs rise to 4.1m
80% will live in
urban areas
Technology to replace output
of 140m workers (globally)
22% fewer grocery stores
6
Decarbonisationand the clean
technology revolution
UK commitment to reduce GHGs
by 80% by 2050
50% of power from
renewables by 2030
Fossil fuel divestment
Global capital seeks “carbon-
light” investments
Energy efficiency
means low costs
7
Optimisation of actual building performance
Digital optimisation
through Internet of
Things
Drastic rethink of retailers’
logistics networks
Smart city applications
Economy boost
Cyber-space risks
8
Household numbers rise
to 31.2 m
82% of population in urban areas
Pressure on infrastructure
drives investment
Private rented sector
affordability
Shortage of residential
supplySmart cities
9
7 million hectares of
additional land needed
Urban agriculture
Renewables and energy
security
Droughts and water stress
Rising sea levels and flood risk
Shortages / price volatility
of certain resources
10
Virtual, flexible and part-time
work
Increased connectivity & collaborative
working
Robotics /AI could automate
up to 40% of jobs
Personal customisation
of the workplace
Virtual space becomes
increasingly important
Workforce composition
changes
11
Population predicted to reach 70.1m
by 2030
High urban population
density
50% more people aged
65+
Redistribution of working age
population
2/3rds of retail spending
growth coming from ages 55+
Single working-age adults see discretionary spend drop
12
By 2030, half of workforce
has long-term health problem
Health-promoting workplace becomes
paramount
Biophilicdesign and connecting indoors with
outdoors
WHO predicts depression will be top health
problem
Number of dementia
sufferers to reach over 1m
Collaborative working spaces
13
Social value creation
imperative
Expectations of meaningful
work
Businesses pushed to define their
social purpose
Quantification of contribution to social value
Brand value linked to
community relationships
Accelerated transparency in
a digitally-connected
society
14
How are you responding?
Interpretations for different asset types
15
RetailTRENDS PRACTICAL ACTIONS: Have you thought about…
• Designing out carbon during development and operations
• On and off-site renewables• New streams of income (e.g. green bonds)• Joint landlord-occupier actions to reduce
carbon
• Adapting retail assets to the low carbon economy and potential climate change impacts (i.e. renewable energy generation, drought and flood management strategies)?
• How well-located and connected your assets are? • The infrastructure to cater for advanced transport?
• Embracing and adapting to data (big data, real time data, security)
• Enhanced customer behaviour tracking • Cloud technology (e.g. for stock control)• 3D printing
• Identifying technologies tenants can use to connect with consumers?• Harnessing big data to track consumer behaviour effectively and
customise promotions according to individual tastes?• Appointing a ‘customer experience’ professional within the retail
management team?• Offering services ‘beyond shopping’ that use technologies such as 3D
printing to personalise the production line?
16
RetailTRENDS PRACTICAL ACTIONS: Have you thought about…
• Polarised market• Greater focus on accessibility
• How to design out obsolescence, given the rapid and disruptive changes expected in demographics and consumer behaviour?
• Whether your assets are flexible enough in terms of management, tenant mix and leasing strategies to enable them to quickly and effectively respond to changes in customer base and preferences?
• How accessible and appealing your assets are for older visitors, including people suffering from dementia?
• Evaluating local economic and social impacts• Supporting local business and job creation
• Undertaking a Social Return on Investment analysis? (see notes)• The vibrancy of your shopping centres – are they able to contribute to
people’s well-being by providing an interesting and uplifting venue?• Supporting local culture and production and independent retailers,
e.g. via pop-up stores or market stalls?• Moving ‘beyond retail’ to a wider range of services, such as
community centres, healthcare, childcare and small scale production?• Prioritising mixed-use development schemes?
17
OfficesTRENDS PRACTICAL ACTIONS: Have you thought about…
• Cloud technology• Building sensors• ‘Internet of Things’• Renewable energy/zero carbon measures
• Developing a network of ‘smart’ spaces that allow staff / tenants to seamlessly connect wherever they are physically located?
• Enhancing your corporate brand / tenants’ brands through integrating visible environmental and “well-being” measures into your buildings?
• Development of commercial hubs outside urban centres
• Upward pressure on commercial and residential rents, yet the need for businesses to cluster
• Analysing opportunities to invest in office hubs outside of urban centres, to reduce commuting distances for those living outside cities?
• Enabling office tenants to diversify the type of space they occupy away from one headquarters’ building, and co-locate with customers/suppliers/partners?
• Providing mixed-use live/work space – designed to support well-being and productivity and create a ‘campus’ feel for millennial workers?
18
OfficesTRENDS PRACTICAL ACTIONS: Have you thought about…
• Rising expectations around flexible workplace practices and speed of response times/output
• Personal control of indoor environment• Blurring of work-life boundaries
• Designing new office space for knowledge workers in ways which significantly advance collaborative working and creative thinking?
• Enabling personal control of the work environment through technologies, modular spaces and personalised spaces?
• Ensuring cost-effective flexibility to accommodate for potential changes in overall demand (and avoid obsolescence)?
• Adapting property management practices to accommodate flexible hours, host social activities and offer a wider range of amenities?
• Enabling effective working from a range of locations to reduce travel times for tenant employees, e.g. investing in shared local office hubs?
• Indoor and outdoor air-quality• Link between green buildings and productivity• Health-promoting workplace practices and
active design
• Analysing the impact of your buildings on occupier health and productivity?
• Introducing biophilic design features to promote occupier well-being?• Developing a workplace health promotion strategy for managed
buildings, including suitable facilities to support cycling / running?
19
ResidentialTRENDS PRACTICAL ACTIONS: Have you thought about…
• Low or zero carbon new build• Retrofitting existing stock or introducing
community-owned renewable energy• Focus on ‘performance in use’• Climate change adaptation
• How you will deliver zero carbon communities, not just homes?• Integrating higher performing technological components to reduce
carbon such as PV cells and renewable energy storage units?• Testing whether the actual efficiency of your assets meets the label?• How well adapted your developments are to climatic extremes and
flood risk both on-site and in the surrounding area?
• Intelligent metering and apps• Big data
• Integrating intelligent metering systems?• Apps that enable digital control of IEQ and household appliances?• Using big data to evaluate residents’ behaviour and tailor products?• Collaborating with other organisations and engaging with consumers
to identify the best new value-adding technologies for new homes?• Helping residents to make the most of the new technologies to
facilitate wellbeing and reap maximum sustainability benefits?
20
ResidentialTRENDS PRACTICAL ACTIONS: Have you thought about…
• Increasing importance of regional hubs• Circular economy
• Designing and locating homes to suit changing needs such as home-working, flexible working cultures, shared spaces, mobility, connectivity and sustainable lifestyles?
• The implications of an increasingly resource-constrained world, such as possible price hikes in key natural resources and construction materials, and how the supply chain can adapt?
• Using technology, e.g., e-commerce, supplier databases and radio frequency identification to enhance procurement and design out waste?
• Aging population• Diverse housing needs to suit different groups
• How you will exploit growing demand for retirement homes and adapt design for an aging population – such as by integrating community facilities into new or existing retirement developments?
• Ensuring that homes are flexible and adaptable for future changes in living patterns and household structure?
• Developing new business models to deliver genuinely affordable homes for rent or purchase amongst the younger generation?
21
ResidentialTRENDS PRACTICAL ACTIONS: Have you thought about…
• Affordability• Exacerbation of inequalities
• How your developments can deliver measurable social value? - for example by providing community facilities, catalysing economic regeneration and creating long-term employment in an area
• Engaging with councils, private investors and other partners to creating innovative financing and development models, to unlock and deliver schemes for a wider range of tenures?
• Partnering with other investors/developers interested in privately-rented residential property and delivering affordable housing which encourages inclusivity within communities?
22
Industrial & LogisticsTRENDS PRACTICAL ACTIONS: Have you thought about…
• Renewable energy• Energy efficiency• Low or zero carbon buildings
• Ensuring your location provides low / zero carbon transport solutions?• Reducing costs and/or enhancing asset values through on-site
renewable energy generation, e.g. rooftop solar?• How to design and deliver low / zero carbon warehouse buildings?
• Rise of manufacturing and automation technologies
• ‘Internet of Things’• Changes in retail spurred by the digital
revolution
• Partnerships with retailers to convert retail to distribution facilities? • Whether your assets are flexible enough to adapt to the use of
different technologies within warehouses, e.g. 3D printing reducing the need for keeping stocks of goods?
• Whether your assets would be able to accommodate new modes of delivery, such as electric and/or driverless vehicles?
23
Industrial & LogisticsTRENDS PRACTICAL ACTIONS: Have you thought about…
• Pressure on land and transportation modes • How well located your assets are, bearing in mind that distributors will increasingly favour facilities close to their customers?
• Adapting to greater intensification of industrial land use in some cities (incl. London), with the need for multi-storey warehouses replacing old industrial units where plot densities have been reduced?
• Opportunities to dispose of or adapt facilities for repurposing in locations with high underlying land value and an acute shortage of residential supply?
• Opportunities to create shared-user retail warehouse schemes to consolidate deliveries and reduce traffic congestion in urban areas? (one example is the Clipper Logistics consolidation centre which serves Regent Street in London)
• Opportunities for mixed-use schemes – e.g. developing retail with a light industrial component to accommodate for local small-scale manufacturing(as 3D printing takes off) or combining retail and distribution to accommodate different consumer preferences?
24
Time is ticking | Take Action
25
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015
Thank you
Beth AmbroseAssociate DirectorLondon+44 (0)20 7399 [email protected]
Appendix Summary: Examples of the implications
27
Trends
- Developing new assets to meet low or zero carbon standards and retrofitting existing assets to deliver better environmental performance- Moving to building-integrated renewable energy solutions or partnering to deliver community energy generation- Adapting buildings to climatic extremes and putting effective drought and flood management strategies in place
- Ensuring flexibility within building design to accommodate the installation and use of new technologies (e.g. intelligent monitoring and metering systems)- Putting infrastructure in place to accommodate advancing modes of transport (e.g. driverless and electric vehicles, drones)- Harnessing big data to track market trends, customer behaviour and asset performance - Using social media and digital technology to connect better with customers
Examples of the implications
28
Trends
- Repurposing assets to meet competing demands (e.g. residential) in response to growing obsolescence in some sectors/ locations (e.g. hypermarkets) - Developing mixed use ‘live work’ campuses- Adapting design to suit modern lifestyles and needs including home-working, community facilities, connectivity, small-scale local production of goods, food, etc.- Exploring the potential need for office hubs for virtual/home workers outside urban centres
- Adapting supply chains in the context of an increasingly resource-constrained world, with possible price hikes in key natural resources and construction materials- Utilising derelict brownfield land in urban areas
Examples of the implications….
29
Trends
- Designing new office space for knowledge workers in ways which significantly advance collaborative working and creative thinking- Integrating technologies, modular spaces and furniture solutions which allow for personal control of the work environment - Designing out obsolescence by ensuring cost effective flexibility to accommodate for potential changes in overall demand for commercial office space as well as specific tenant requirements
- Ensuring that assets are flexible enough in terms of management, tenant mix and leasing strategies, to enable them to quickly respond to changes in customer base and preferences- Adapting design and ensuring that assets are accessible & user-friendly for an aging population- Developing new business models that deliver genuinely affordable homes for rent or purchase among the younger generation
Examples of the implications….
30
Trends
- Collaborating with tenants/landlords to analyse the impact of office buildings on occupier health and productivity- Focusing on employee well-being to attract and retain staff
- Understanding and enhancing the social contribution of businesses and major assets
Examples of the implications….
31