THE BALTICS THE FIRST REGION IN THE EU TO BECOME 100% RES · 5. Promote solar PV prosumerism (e.g. missing 3-phase balancing in Finland) 6. Electrify transportation as much as possible

THE BALTICS – THE FIRST REGION IN THE

EU TO BECOME 100% RES

Christian Breyer, Michael Child and Dmitrii Bogdanov

Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), Finland

17th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting on Renewable Energy and

Energy Efficiency

September 29, 2017, Tallinn

The Baltics – The first region in the EU to become 100% RES

Christian Breyer ► [email protected]

Highlights

A 100% renewable energy system with energy storage solutions

can provide reliable, sustainable energy services before 2050

A 100% renewable energy system is lower in cost than the

current system based on nuclear and fossil fuels

Interconnections between Baltic countries can result in further

cost savings

A well-designed 100% renewable energy system with energy

storage solutions can provide power system stability in all 8760

hours of the year



Abundant Renewable Resource Potentials

Resource Units Norway Denmark Sweden Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania Total 2050 Utilisation

Solar PV GW 1457 194 2026 1522 204 290 294 5987 <1%

Onshore wind GW 109 14 151 114 15 22 22 447 11 %

Hydro dams GW 30 0 17 0 0 0 0 47 79 %

Hydro RoR GW 14 0 8 5 0 1 1 29 67 %

Waste TWh 1 2 2 3 0.5 0.7 0.8 10 100 %

Biomass waste TWh 2 1 70 58 6 4 11 152 100 %

Biomass residues TWh 8 15 48 37 4 8 13 133 0 %

Biogas TWh 1 28 7 13 0.5 0.5 4 54 100 %

Biomass total TWh 12 46 127 111 11 13 29 349 62 %

Comment on biomass potential:

in a full energy system consideration the total biomass potential is also used

for heating purposes and for biofuels in the transport sector



Important Steps to Reach 100% RES

1. Eliminate subsidies for fossil fuel and nuclear power generation

• Account real costs of CO2 emissions, heavy metal emissions, and socialization of risks

associated with nuclear power (e.g. limited liability insurance)

2. No new investments in coal and nuclear power

3. Substitute natural gas with sustainable biogas/biomethane/Power-to-Gas over time

• Gas infrastructure and conversion technologies remain important

4. Avoid extra taxation for RES (good example from Sweden)

5. Promote solar PV prosumerism (e.g. missing 3-phase balancing in Finland)

6. Electrify transportation as much as possible

• Biofuels for shipping, aviation and sectors where electrification is difficult

7. Improve energy efficiency in buildings

• Expand use of electric heat pumps and bio-based CHP

8. Promote regional interconnections and sharing of grid solutions

9. Set clear targets to achieve a fully sustainable energy system (e.g. DK, NO, SE)



Outcomes and Impacts of 100% RES

1. Achieving a more sustainable and resilient energy sytem

2. Reduction of CO2 emissions and associated costs

3. Job creation associated with RES

4. Improved health of people and environment

5. Improved trade balances through no imports of fossil and nuclear fuels

6. Elimination of unfair sharing of risks and rewards related to nuclear power

7. Reduction of heavy metal emissions

8. Challenges associated with grid reinforcement (HV, MV and LV) are manageable

9. By achieving high shares of RES before other EU member states, the Baltic

region can become a showcase and blueprint for the rest of Europe

• Possibilities to export solutions



Main insights RE generation already reached 61% in 2015

Increasing relevance of electricity

Phase out of coal by 2025 and nuclear plants by 2030

Increasing levels of solar PV prosumers and onshore wind

Fossil natural gas replaced over time by sustainable

biogas/ biomethane and SNG

Decarbonisation of power sector by 2035

Bioenergy to be used in all energy sectors

Key Findings 100RES – Capacities, Generation, CO2



Key Findings 100RES – Investments, Cost

Main insights Decreasing LCOE over time (from 60 to 45 €/MWh)

Decreasing fossil fuel and CO2 costs

New investments in solar PV and onshore wind

Relevance of storage increases over time

Curtailment of excess electricity low due to interconnections

Other low carbon technologies (nuclear and fossil CCS) are

(substantially) more expensive and risky



Key Findings 100RES – Interconnections, Storage

2050

Main insights Storage becomes increasingly relevant as source of flexibility

Current interconnections amount to approximately 12 GW

Simulation results do not show significant need for expansion

(+1 GW between Finland and Estonia)

15% of total generation of 587 TWh is traded to other Baltic

regions and not consumed in the region of origin

Strengthening of interconnections between Estonia, Latvia

and Lithuania may also be needed



Key Findings – 100% RES is Possible

2015

2050

Main insights High losses of the current system dimish for 100% RES

Fossil-nuclear substituted mainly by wind, solar PV, bioenergy



Barriers and Solutions to 100% RESBarriers Possible solutions

Technological barriers: Lack of energy storage solutions

Inefficiency

Lessons to be learned from solutions available in Germany, R&D

allocated to storage solutions, electrification of transport and use

of EV batteries may offer significant potential for storage

Reduce transmission and distribution losses, improve access for

small-scale producers, reduce inefficiencies in production as RE

generation replaces older nuclear and fossil plants

Economical barriers: Competitiveness

A need for new kinds of electricity markets

and rules

Inefficient markets for storage systems

Support and high subsidies for conventional

energy system

Current dominance by large monopolies and

oligopolies

Solar PV has already reached grid parity in some market segments

and will become more competitive on in the future

Storage solutions are available at least in Germany – a need to

import solutions

Ideally there should be no support systems in the long run

distorting markets

Subsidies for harmful emissions of conventional energy

production need to be eliminated

Feed-in tariff, net metering and privileged grid access in the

begining for renewables

Creating a fair, low risk investment landscape is essential to ensure

future growth



Barriers and Solutions to 100% RESBarriers Possible solutions

Institutional and political barriers: Fossil fuels lobbying

Vested interests

Path dependency and technological lock-in

Incumbent electricity companies

Lack of support policy

Lack of powerful advocacy coalitions

Failure to overcome existing subsidies

Misleading energy scenarios (e.g. Nordic

Energy Technology Perspectives 2016)

No new investments in nuclear or fossil plants

Maintain and expand gas infrastructure

Only need to switch fuel from NG to biogas or SNG

A possibility to build a more distributed energy regime

New business models arising, but more needed

Incentives for wide range of efficiency improvements

Some support policy for renewables and storage seems to be

needed in the beginning (to balance subsidies for fossil-nuclear)

Feed-in tariff law should be based on German model and non-

tendering models (more players and lower cost of capital)

Promote more solar, wind and bioenergy energy advocacy

Develop more sustainable and resilient energy scenarios

Behavioral barriers: General attitudes

Psychological resistance

Political will

Promote greater public awareness of renewable energy and energy

efficiency

Provide more information and practical examples of successful

installations

Maintain strong political will for change, fairness, sustainability and

energy independence

Further develop education and training programs at universities

and vocational schools



Summary – 100% RES is Possible and Feasible

A 100% renewable energy system is a least cost option for the Baltic region(given the high cost of new nuclear and fossil-CCS alternatives)

100% RES can result in job creation and improved trade balances

100% RES also represents lower health and economic risks, and higher overallenergy system resilience beyond CO₂ emission reductions

Current barriers to high shares of RES can effectively be overcome througheffective policy and planning

The Baltics can become the first region in the EU to achieve 100% RES

almost complete decarbonisation of power sector by 2035

this can serve as a showcase for other member states

NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategy research openings

and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of

Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University

of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre.

Thank you for your attention!

@NeoCarbonEnergy

@ChristianOnRE

www.neocarbonenergy.fi

http://www.neocarbonenergy.fi/

https://twitter.com/MahdiFasihi

https://twitter.com/MahdiFasihi

Documents

THE BALTICS THE FIRST REGION IN THE EU TO BECOME 100% RES · 5. Promote solar PV prosumerism (e.g. missing 3-phase balancing in Finland) 6. Electrify transportation as much as possible