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8/2/2019 The Asian Century (a History)
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FINAL LECTURE IN SS2 FOR SY 2009/10
MBSP2010
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18581947
19902008The Sepoy Rebellion
is defeated.
The Chinese lose theOpium War.
The Japanese sign
the Harris Treaty.
India becomes
independent.
The Peoples
Republic of China is
born (1949).
Japan adopts a post-
war constitution.
India undertakes
economic reforms.
The development ofShanghai begins.
Terrorists claim
164 lives in
Mumbai.
China hosts the
Olympics.
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OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION
I. Forces that Shaped the 20th CenturyA. The Rise of Nations
B. Interdependence
C. Flattening of the World
II. The Rise of Asia: The Dragon and the Elephant
III. 1990 to 2010 (and beyond): Challenges and
Opportunities in the 21st century
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I
THE FORCES THAT SHAPED THE20TH CENTURY
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FORCE 1: THE RISE OF NATIONS
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FORCE 1: THE RISE OF NATIONS
Historical patterns:
1. The Great Liberation refers to a wave of
decolonization and emergence of newly
independent nation states.
2. The Cold War rivalry between the US and the USSR
encouraged new states as the two superpowers
sought new allies.
3. The paradox of colonialism argues that while the
imperial powers granted independence, they left
the country unable to be independent.
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FORCE 2: INTERDEPENDENCE
Question: What is globalization?
Answer: Princess Diana's death
Question: How come?
Answer:
An English princess with an
Egyptian boyfriend crashes in a
French tunnel, driving a
German car with a
Dutch engine, driven by a
Belgian who was high on
Scottish whiskey, followed closely byItalian Paparazzi, on
Japanese motorcycles, treated by an
American doctor, using
Brazilian medicines!
And this is sent to you by a
Canadian, usingBill Gates' technology which
he got from the Japanese.
And you are probably reading this on
one of the IBM clones that use
Philippine-made chips, and
Korean made monitors,
assembled by Bangladeshi
workers in a Singapore plant,
transported by lorries driven by Indians,
hijacked by Indonesians and finallysold to you by a Chinese!
That's Globalization!
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FORCE 2: INTERDEPENDENCE
What problems in the world
are caused by at least two
states coming into contact
with each other?
What solutions require
the collaboration of two
or more states working
with each other?
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FORCE 3: FLATTENING OF THE WORLD
Arjun Appadurai, in 1989
wrote about the five scapes
that define global interaction.
1. Ethnoscapes2. Technoscapes
3. Finanscapes
4. Mediascapes5. Ideoscapes
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TECHNOSCAPES
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FINANSCAPES
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MEDIASCAPES
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IDEOSCAPES
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II
THE DRAGON AND
THE ELEPHANT
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THE TECTONIC PLATE METAPHOR
This section deals with the parallel
histories of China and India from the
end of the Age of Imperialism to
independence, and to their early
struggles as independent and sovereign
nation states.
Liken them to the tectonic plates that
shift beneath the earth, defining land
areas and splitting oceans. The impact
of China and India is just as powerful
and profound.
Shifts in one or the other can affect the
surrounding regions and countries
greatly, and that is something we will
see as we head into the 21st century.
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18581947
19902008The Sepoy Rebellion
is defeated.
The Chinese lose the
Opium War.
The Japanese sign
the Harris Treaty.
India becomes
independent.
The Peoples
Republic of China isborn (1949).
Japan adopts a post-
war constitution.
India undertakes
economic reforms.
The development of
Shanghai begins.
China hosts the
Olympics.
Terrorists claim164 lives in
Mumbai.
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We begin our story with China and India at a weak and
disadvantaged position. China has just been splintered into
spheres of influence, and India has just been put under officialcontrol of the British crown. Things are bound to get worse
before they get better.
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THREE CRUSHING BLOWS TO CHINA
Sino-Japanese War of 1894-95
The Taiping
Rebellion of 1850-
64 (led by Hong
Xiuquan)
The Opium Wars of 1839 and 1856
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SUN YAT SEN (Sun Zhongshan) is
often called the father of Chinese
nationalism.
He spoke of the 3 principles of
the people: Peoples Nationalism,
Peoples Sovereignty, Peoples
Livelihood.
He co-founded the Kuomintang
(KMT, Nationalist Peoples Party)
and served as its first leader.
He led a revolution in 1911 and
forced the Emperor to leave the
throne by February 1912.
THE DYNASTIC CYCLE ENDS
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A RED SOLUTION
During the May 4th Movement
of 1919, Marxist (socialist)
ideas gained popularity.
In a small meeting in 1921
attended by 53 men (including
a passionate man named MaoZedong), the Communist
Party of China was born.
A fierce rivalry between the KMTand the Communist followed after
an attempted purge in 1927.
Mao fled to the countryside.
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In 1934, starting at around 100,000, they traveled for 6,000 miles in 368 days, fighting 15
major battles and 300 skirmishes. Only 15,000 survived.
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THE EAST IS RED
1931: Japan invaded Manchuria; they engaged the Chinese in open
warfare by 1937.1945: The surrender of the Japanese left the KMT and Communists
fighting for control of China.
October 1, 1949:
The Peoples
Republic of China
is established.
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MEANWHILE IN INDIA
The Sepoy Rebellion is defeated.
In 1876, Queen Victoria proclaims herself Empress of India.
India is placed under the direct rule of the British crown, with all its pros and cons.
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UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
Thomas Babington Macaulay encouraged the rise
of western-educated Indians, thinking that they
would bolster British power.
We must at present do our best to form
a class who may be interpreters between
us and the millions whom we govern; aclass of persons, Indian in blood and
color, but English in taste, in opinions, in
morals, and in intellect.
But quite the opposite happened.
The Indian National Congress was first organized in 1885;
The Muslim League soon followed in 1906.
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THE GREAT SOUL
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The British held a monopoly oversalt, a necessity for Indians.
Gandhis march signaled the
loudest proudest against British
rule.
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AT THE STROKE OF MIDNIGHT
On 15 August 1947, India won its
Independence
at a price. Pakistan was to be a
separate country.
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China and India tremble, and the entire Asian continent shifts. A
new communist regime rises in China, and India finally wins its
independence but at a brutal price. What follows next is thestory of their struggles as new nations in a changing world.
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BACK IN CHINA, A NEW BEGINNING
What was life like back in Communist China? Here are some scenarios.
FIRST: You (and everyone else) wont be allowed to own
private property. No cellphones. No MP3 players. No
laptops or personal computer. No reason for people to be
jealous of one another. No conflict. No class distinction.
SECOND: In the classroom, you just repeat what teacher
says. You cannot question or comment. Just repeat.
Repeat. Repeat. You also have to memorize all theCommunist hymns and write long essays about how
great your leader is!
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THE COMMUNIST LIFE
THIRD: The dormers will be just at home in Communist
China because everyone lives in a dorm now! Your dad,
mom, brother, sister, grandparents and even your dog all
live in one place together with other families.
We call this the commune and everything is sharedfood, housing, bath, clothes, everything!
During the day especially during THE GREAT LEAP
FORWARD the adults work in the fields while thechildren are in school and sing praises for Chairman Mao!
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FOURTH: If you have high IQ or consider yourself an
artist, better start hiding. Intellectuals and artists are
enemies of Communist China.
During the CULTURAL REVOLUTION (1960s), Mao went
after those who are stuck to the old ways (specificallyConfucian scholars) of China. He burned books (sounds
familiar?) and sent the scholars to work in the fields and
factories, criticize themselves (you have to write long
essays about how wrong you are) and be reeducated bythe peasants.
THE COMMUNIST LIFE
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LEGACY
Mao Zedong left a dual legacy: founder and
communist hero, and a grand failure as a
social engineer.
Ironically, for all that is written about him, it
is not Mao who will be credited for todays
China. It will be Deng Xiaoping.
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MEANWHILE IN SOUTH ASIA
An artificial border was
drawn between India andPakistan, prompting mass
migrations and violence on
both sides.
Gandhi fasts to halt the violence, but it his assassination in
January 30, 1948 that would help end the worst of the violence.
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S O SOC S
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LIMITS OF SOCIALISM
Indian economic policy after independence was a direct
response to the British rule which they saw as exploitative in
nature.
Government had control over every single economic activity.
Elaborate licenses had to be secured to put up businesses in
India from 1947 to 1990.
Impact? The low annual growth rate of the economy of India
stagnated around 3.5% from 1950s to 1980s. At the same time,
Pakistan grew by 5%, Indonesia by 9%, Thailand by 9%, South
Korea by 10% and in Taiwan by 12%.
Investment was monopolized by the government. The License
Rajwas prone to corruption.
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Our story ends here. China and India are poised to rise as new
leaders in the region in the coming century. The rest of the
continent has much to learn from their experience. But as newopportunities come so do challenges. The story continues.
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III
1990 to 2010 (and beyond):CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
IN THE 21ST
CENTURY
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THE EAST ASIA FORUM BEGINS NEXT WEEK
As a class, you have the following goals:
Using the format of Model UN, stage an East Asia
Regional Forum headed by the ASEAN and its major
partners, China, South Korea, and Japan.
Arrive at resolutions on three issue areas:
1. Peace, Order and Stability
2. Climate Change3. Poverty Alleviation and Human Development
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MY GOALS AS YOUR TEACHER
By letting you go through the motions of Model UN, it is
my hope that you
1. Comprehend the processes of making decisions on a
regional and global scale.
2. Appreciate the complexity of issues, and how
national interests may or may not coincide with
global interests.
3. Give yourself something to think about when you
touch on history, politics, and economics in the
future.
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PEACE, ORDER & SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE &
RESOURCE MANAGEMENTPOVERTY ALLEVIATION &
HUMAN DEVELOPMENTBorder conflicts
Terrorism
Ongoing wars
Insurgencies and secessionistmovements
Organized crime and syndicates
Illegal trade and black markets
Maritime piracy
Global warming
Food security
Biodiversity
Deforestation
Illegal mining
Foreign ownership of natural
resources
Investment in green technology
Education
Reproductive health
Government inefficiency
Dwindling life expectancies
Human rights
Plight of refugees
Human capital flight (brain drain)
THE MAJOR ISSUES
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III.A
PEACE, ORDER & SECURITY
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1931
Japanese invade
Manchuria
7 July 1937
Japanese invade
Nanking
7 Dec 1941
Japanese bomb
Pearl Harbor2 Jan 1942
Japanese
capture Manila
6 Aug 1945
The atomicbomb drops on
Hiroshima
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1931
Japanese invade
Manchuria
7 July 1937
Japanese invade
Nanking
7 Dec 1941
Japanese bomb
Pearl Harbor2 Jan 1942
Japanese
capture Manila
6 Aug 1945
The atomicbomb drops on
Hiroshima
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POLARITY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
British Empire at its height Unipolar world order
Age of Imperialism Multipolar world order
Cold War Bipolar world order
Post-Cold War Nonpolar world order
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A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE WEST
OCC S
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This is a view of the West, particularly the United States,
as 'a mass of soulless, decadent, money-grubbing,
rootless, faithless, unfeeling parasites'
This views sees the West in four characterizations:
the West prefers the sinful city to the virtuous countryside;
the West destroys heroism and replaces it with trading;
the West thinks only of matter and not of spirit;
the West worships evil
OCCIDENTALISM
FUNDAMENTALISM
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From Karen Armstrong, The Battle for God
Muslims are downtrodden because they have
allowed foreign ideologies such as capitalism and
Marxism to displace the cultural values,philosophy, and way of life that has once served
as the foundation of a great civilization; Islam will
be able to develop its own modern civilizationonly be rejecting Western laws and customs and
returning society completely to the Sharia.
FUNDAMENTALISM
VIOLENCE AGAINST THE WEST
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Occidentalism hints at why there exists violence
against the West, particularly the United States ofAmerica.
Occidentalism is not just a matter of culture orideology, but of politics and economics as well.
Terrorism can be seen as a
reaction to colonial times. This
remains a powerful challenge
for the 21st century.
VIOLENCE AGAINST THE WEST
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III.B
CLIMATE CHANGE
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I don't really consider this a political issue,
I consider it to be a moral issue. - Al Gore
THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
It's difficult to get a man to understand something if his
salary depends upon his not understanding it. Upton Sinclair via Al Gore
Moving towards a lasting solution to climate changerequires tremendous political will.
On the part of the individual, understanding the climate
change threat requires tremendous sociologicalimagination.
THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
DEVELOPING ECONOMIES vs
DEVELOPED ECONOMIES
The current climate crisis is seen mostly as the product
of the developed economies.
Why should developing countries pay the price for
something that isnt their fault? (And hence, when they
pay, they may lose out on the advantages they need todevelop.)
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III.C
POVERTY ALLEVIATION ANDHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
RETHINKING POVERTY
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As presented in The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs (2005)
RETHINKING POVERTY
RETHINKING POVERTY
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As presented in The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs (2005)
RETHINKING POVERTY
RETHINKING POVERTY
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As presented in The End of Poverty by Jeffrey Sachs (2005)
RETHINKING POVERTY
RETHINKING POVERTY
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Conclusions about modern economic growth:
All regions were poor in 1820
All regions experienced economic progress
Todays rich regions experienced by the far the
greatest economic progress
In investigating the gap between rich and poor then, the
question becomes: Why do different parts of the world
grow at different rates?
RETHINKING POVERTY
RETHINKING POVERTY
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Why do different parts of the world grow at
different rates?Here are some possibilities.
1. Physical geography
2. Government failure3. Cultural barriers
4. Geopolitics
5. Lack of innovation
6. Demographic trap
7. Poverty trap
RETHINKING POVERTY
THE MAJOR ISSUES
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PEACE, ORDER & SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE &RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
POVERTY ALLEVIATION &
HUMAN DEVELOPMENTBorder conflicts
Terrorism
Ongoing wars
Insurgencies and secessionistmovements
Organized crime and syndicates
Illegal trade and black markets
Maritime piracy
Global warming
Food security
Biodiversity
DeforestationIllegal mining
Foreign ownership of natural
resources
Investment in green technology
Education
Reproductive health
Government inefficiency
Dwindling life expectanciesHuman rights
Plight of refugees
Human capital flight (brain drain)
THE MAJOR ISSUES
With that, we conclude.
Good luck in your Model East Asia Forum!
As the first ever batch you will literally be making history