The Art and Science of Predicting Enrollment

Ed MillsAssociate Vice President for Student Affairs Enrollment and Student Support

Harres MageeEnrollment Analyst

Enrollment Management is both Art and Science

Enrollment managers, committees and analysts often develop annual enrollment prediction models using established trends.But what do you do when environmental factors change so quickly and so radically that your predictions need to change just as fast?

This SessionTo help, we will offer insights on:

Reviewing and adjusting the main external and internal variables that enrollment managers track.Identifying additional data to help you more accurately predict and influence your enrollment. Developing tools that will help you change your enrollment predictions as quickly as the environment changes

Typical Enrollment Funnel

Building the Funnel – 18 Month Cycle

Step 1 – Identify the Goals and TargetStep 2 – Measure Attrition and GraduationStep 3 – Measure Continuation

Predict the Continuation Rates

Step 4 – Calculate the Delta to TargetStep 5 – Build Recruitment Strategy

Predict the Yields

Admission/Re-Entry

Admission/Re-Entry

Admission/Re-Entry

Attrition/Graduatio

n

Attrition/Graduatio

n

Retention and Progress to Degree

Typical Enrollment Growth Model

One Definition for Enrollment Management

"Enrollment management is the collaborative use of targeted strategies throughout the campus which are designed to meet the University’s goals for student recruitment, retention and graduation."

Suddenly your analyst says: “all our models need to

change”

"Enrollment management is the collaborative use of targeted strategies throughout the campus which are designed to meet the University’s goals for student recruitment, retention and graduation."

"Enrollment management is the collaborative implementation of a strategic enrollment cycle designed to quickly adapt to changing environmental factors to meet the University’s goals for student recruitment, retention and graduation."

Strategic Enrollment Management Cycle

Admission/Re-Entry

Admission/Re-Entry

Admission/Re-Entry

Attrition/Graduatio

n

Attrition/Graduatio

n

Retention and Progress to Degree

Growing Enrollment

Enrollment (with continuing students)

New Student

Attrition

New Student

New Student

AttritionAttrition

Maintaining Enrollment

Enrollment (with continuing students)

New Enrollme

nt

New Enrollme

nt

Attrition

Attrition

Attrition

Decreasing Enrollment

How do we keep our enrollment models “Strategic” and adapt them to sudden changes?

Where are Changes Happening?

“Orders” to achieve new targets?Adjustments to Institutional Capacity?Fluctuations in the Recruitment Market?Changes Institutional Enrollment Flow

Target Schizophrenia?Situation

Enrollment Model

In 2009-2010 Academic Year our Chancellor’s Office (CO) requested we maintain static enrollment (though demand was increasing)

The 2010-2011 AY planning the CO targets were reduced by -10.8%.

By September, the CO received funding to increase target by +2.7%.

At the end of September the CO increased the target by +1.1%.

In Mid- October the CO again increased enrollment target by +3.9%

By the end of that same Mid- October day, the CO again increased target by an additional +2.9%.

Finally, for the 2011-12, The CO dropped our coming year target to meet anticipated state funding by 5.9%2012 – 13 ????

CSU targets are based on FTES. As such, small changes in AUL can create large variations in FTES.

If we want to drive FTES up, we might need to bring headcount down.

Carpel Tunnel Capacity Syndrome?

One-time funding in 2010-11 suddenly provided a mechanism to create many new courses for fall 2011 – increasing capacity (after having spent a year decreasing capacity).

The CSU had already created a graduation initiative and developing many new courses fell in-line with objectives to facilitate graduation.

Restrict, Restrict, Restrict – SPEND!

Fall 2011 we hit a new AUL record thanks to one-time funding allowing for added sections

Drive Those FTES Up!

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Avg. Unit Load

Resident FTES (to target) = 23,109Resident FTES Target = 21,625Difference = +1,484Outcome = +6.86%

(with a slightly smaller headcount than initially projected – 28,019)

Outcome for Fall 2011

Good enrollment managers keep a close watch on their primary recruitment markets (headcount and mix of students).

But where are you getting the data and how valid is it?

Market Fluctuations

High School Graduation by State (California)

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10

12

Market

High School Graduation by Local Region (Sac. Region)

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12

Market

Projections change…

Check the Expiration Date

Enrollment Flow Famine, Flood or Holding Your Own

Enrollment managers often become masters at predicting yields, retention, continuation, progression, etc.

Measuring Continuation

Total Enrollment

Continuing Students

Continuation Rate

Delta (fall to fall & Spring to Spring)

Fall 2008 29,022 - - -

Spring 2009 26,977 23,698 81.66% -

Fall 2009 29,249 20,398 75.61% -

Spring 2010 25,638 25,230 86.26% 4.60%

Fall 2010 27,035 19,355 75.49% -0.12%

Spring 2011 26,491 23,880 88.33% 2.07%

Fall 2011 28,019 19,967 75.37% -0.12%

Enrollment Revelations?

What do you do when your projection models need to be more based on the future than the past?

EM Pop Quiz

Can a continuation rate ever be more than 100%

EM Pop Quiz

Can a continuation rate ever be more than 100%

YES! But how?

Always Disaggregate, Evaluate and Re-compute

Spring 2011 CSUS had 8,748 Seniors

Fall 2011 CSUS “continued” 8,836 Seniors

That’s 101% continuation rate – how did we accomplish that?

Build tools that allow you to change each of your key variables as the strategic enrollment cycle changes.

Hunt for Red October Example

One Possible Answer:Scenario Building

References and Tools

Build Scenarios on All Key Enrollment Variables

Admissions FunnelsMix (race/ethnicity, age, gender, 1st Generation, other key factors related to your campus)Retention and Progression RatesContinuation (flow) ratesGraduation FunnelsAttrition (drop-out, stop-out, transfer out and fail out) RatesAverage Unit Loads (disaggregate by level)Others?

The first step to better times is to imagine themTrust your intuition – If you think its right, it probably is. If you think its wrong…Prepare for the unexpected – prediction is really the art of successful gamblingGood luck is the result of good planning – Getting it right the first time is luck, getting it right thereafter is learning….You can’t start at done!

Epiphalations