The Aristotle Football Trading Strategy - Worked Example 18/11/12; Fulham v Sunderland

I put in my stakes 16 minutes before kick off - hoping to get matched @4.5 on Over 1.5 as this tends to go up nearer to KO while over 2.5 and CS 1-1 go down slightly. If this is unmatched just before KO I will take the lower price to set up the trade. The unders is matched 2 mins before KO.

The trade is set and ready to go. I have a few concerns about Sunderlands scoring problems so will let the trade run longer than the suggested 23 mins as it may take a bit longer for Fulham to break then down.

RED CARD for Fulham on 31' - I hate these things, they change the whole complexion of the trade so time to make a decision and get out. The red card forced me to abort the Aristotle trade by killing the O2.5 market for a loss and the CS market for scratch. I used a bit of time delay to green up on the U1.5 market to cover losses or make a small profit. I am expecting this to be a low scoring game now so I kept the profit on the unders - I also had to do a call of mercy at half time so could no longer monitor the game - these things happen!

0-1 50' Glad I got out at half time; 1-1 62' The 1-1 cover would have come in here; 1-2 65' Would have been a successful Aristotle trade after all! Should have equalised the trade rather than loading towards a low scorer - hindsight is a wonderful thing! 47p profit rather than £5.07 but more importantly the bank is not effected. Not the best example of the Aristotle Trade but does demonstrate how easy it is to reduce liabilities in play.