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The Appeasement CrisisThe Appeasement Crisis
Ionia Workshop 2011Ionia Workshop 2011Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.William Jewell CollegeWilliam Jewell College
What is Appeasement?What is Appeasement?
A state makes concessions either 1) to A state makes concessions either 1) to avoid war or 2) to postpone war until it’s in avoid war or 2) to postpone war until it’s in a better position to fighta better position to fight
Key Successful Case: 1895 GB and US Key Successful Case: 1895 GB and US over Venezuelaover Venezuela
1922: Rapollo1922: Rapollo
German CW Staff in Soviet Union 1928Von Seeckt
1923: France 1923: France Occupies RuhrOccupies Ruhr
The World CrisisThe World Crisis
“Fascism”
“Totalitarianism”
Fate of DemocracyFate of DemocracyDemocraticDemocratic DemocraticDemocratic
StateState FoundingFounding Regime Falls Regime FallsItalyItaly 19251925GermanyGermany 19191919 19331933CzechoslovakiaCzechoslovakia 19181918 1938*1938*PolandPoland 19191919 19261926AustriaAustria 19201920 19331933HungaryHungary 1920*1920* 19321932EstoniaEstonia 19181918 19341934LatviaLatvia 19201920 19341934
Locarno Treaty 1925Locarno Treaty 1925
Actually 7 TreatiesActually 7 Treaties Germany accepts border changes in West Germany accepts border changes in West
after WWIafter WWI Germany accepted into European order, Germany accepted into European order,
admitted to League of Nationsadmitted to League of Nations Germany, Belgium, Britain, France, Italy Germany, Belgium, Britain, France, Italy
agree form defensive pactagree form defensive pact Germany pledged to use arbitration for any Germany pledged to use arbitration for any
dispute with Poland and Czechoslovakiadispute with Poland and Czechoslovakia France re-confirmed defense pacts with France re-confirmed defense pacts with
Poland and CzechoslovakiaPoland and Czechoslovakia
German LeaderGerman LeaderGustav StresemanGustav Streseman
1878-19291878-1929
Son of Berlin beer distributorSon of Berlin beer distributor
Won Nobel Peace Prize for LocarnoWon Nobel Peace Prize for Locarno
View of Weimar: View of Weimar: VernunftrepublikanerVernunftrepublikaner
Chancellor, Germany, Aug-Nov 1923Chancellor, Germany, Aug-Nov 1923
Foreign Minister, Nov 1923-1929Foreign Minister, Nov 1923-1929
““Fulfillment” Policy (Fulfillment” Policy (à la Nixon to China)à la Nixon to China)
“…gain a free hand to secure peace change of borders in the East and…later incorporation of German territories in the East”
Stresemann, 1923Stresemann, 1923
““All our measures of a political and All our measures of a political and diplomatic nature, through deliberate diplomatic nature, through deliberate cooperation by the two Anglo-Saxon cooperation by the two Anglo-Saxon Powers, the estrangement of Italy from Powers, the estrangement of Italy from [France], and the vacillation of Belgium, [France], and the vacillation of Belgium, have combined to create a situation for have combined to create a situation for France that the country will not in the long France that the country will not in the long run be able to sustain.”run be able to sustain.”
– Kissinger, Kissinger, DiplomacyDiplomacy, citing Stresemann diaries, citing Stresemann diaries
French LeaderFrench LeaderAristide BriandAristide Briand
1862-19321862-1932Early fame for work on Early fame for work on separation of church and stateseparation of church and stateLeader, French Socialist PartyLeader, French Socialist PartyPrime Minister 1909-1911, 1915-Prime Minister 1909-1911, 1915-1917, 1921-22, 1925-26, 19291917, 1921-22, 1925-26, 19291928: Pact of Paris, or Kellogg-1928: Pact of Paris, or Kellogg-Briand Pact, outlawing warBriand Pact, outlawing warGets along well with StresemannGets along well with Stresemann“I conduct the foreign
policy of France’s birth rate.”
British LeaderBritish LeaderAustin ChamberlainAustin Chamberlain
1863-19371863-1937
Son of great Joseph Chamberlain, Mother Son of great Joseph Chamberlain, Mother dies during his birth; Half-brother: Nevilledies during his birth; Half-brother: Neville
Love of FranceLove of France
Conservative Leader, but only one not to Conservative Leader, but only one not to become PMbecome PM
1915-1917: Secretary of State for India1915-1917: Secretary of State for India
1918-1921 : Chancellor of Exchequer1918-1921 : Chancellor of Exchequer
1924-1929: Foreign Affairs1924-1929: Foreign Affairs
1930s: Strong supporter of re-armament, 1930s: Strong supporter of re-armament, Churchill allyChurchill ally
“For the Polish Corridor, no British government ever will or ever can risk the bones of a British grenadier.” 1925
SituationSituation
Little Entente formed (Czechoslovakia, Little Entente formed (Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia, France, 1924-27)Romania, Yugoslavia, France, 1924-27)
French alliancesFrench alliancesFrance & “Little Entente”
Challenges to VersaillesChallenges to Versailles1934: Germany leaves League of Nations1934: Germany leaves League of Nations1934: Hitler tries to take over Austria but fails1934: Hitler tries to take over Austria but fails1935: Hitler re-introduces conscription, repudiates 1935: Hitler re-introduces conscription, repudiates other disarmament obligations in Versailles Treatyother disarmament obligations in Versailles Treaty1936: German troops into Rhineland1936: German troops into Rhineland1936: Germany military intervention to support 1936: Germany military intervention to support fascists in Spanish Civil Warfascists in Spanish Civil War1938: Germany annexes Austria1938: Germany annexes Austria1938: Germany annexes Sudetenland1938: Germany annexes Sudetenland1939: Germany annexes rest of Czechoslovakia1939: Germany annexes rest of Czechoslovakia1939: Germany invades Poland – World War in 1939: Germany invades Poland – World War in Europe beginsEurope begins
The “German Problem” AgainThe “German Problem” Again
Germany’s Relative Power in the Germany’s Relative Power in the International SystemInternational System
PopulationPopulation(M)(M)
19131913 19201920 19281928 19381938
USSRUSSR 175175 127127 150150 180180
USAUSA 9797 106106 119119 138138
GermanyGermany 6767 4343 55.455.4 68.568.5
BritainBritain 4646 4444 4646 4848
FranceFrance 39.739.7 3939 4141 4242
Relative Industrial PotentialRelative Industrial Potential(UK 1900 = 100)(UK 1900 = 100)19281928 19381938
BritainBritain 135135 181181
USUS 533533 528528
FranceFrance 8282 7474
GermanyGermany 158158 214214
USSRUSSR 7272 152152
Defense Expenditures Defense Expenditures $M, current$M, current
YearYear GermanyGermany UKUK FranceFrance USSRUSSR USAUSA
19331933 162162 512512 498498 722722 699699
19341934 452452 333333 524524 707707 579579
19371937 3,2983,298 1,2451,245 890890 3,4463,4461,6211,621
19381938 7,4157,415 1,8631,863 919919 5,4295,4291,1311,131
Military Aircraft ProductionMilitary Aircraft Production
19321932 19351935 19371937 19391939 19411941 19441944
FranceFrance (600)(600) 785785 743743 3,1633,163 ---- ----
BritainBritain 445445 1,1401,140 2,1532,153 7,9407,940 21K21K 26K26K
USAUSA 593593 459459 949949 2,1952,195 26K26K 96K96K
GermanyGermany3636 3,1833,183 5,6065,606 8,2958,295 12K12K 40K40K
USSRUSSR 2,5952,595 3,5783,578 3,5783,578 10,38210,382 15K15K 40K40K
1935-371935-37
1938: Anschluss1938: Anschluss
1938 after Munich1938 after Munich
3/1939: Czechoslovakia 3/1939: Czechoslovakia gonegone
1939: Poland (& Balts) 1939: Poland (& Balts) gonegone
Maginot LineMaginot Line
Maginot Line Maginot Line UndergroundUnderground
Map of Maginot LineMap of Maginot Line
SudetenlandSudetenland
Red areas indicate Red areas indicate >> 80% German in 1930 80% German in 1930 censuscensus
Munich 1938: Carving up Munich 1938: Carving up CzechoslovakiaCzechoslovakia
Fate of DemocracyFate of Democracy
DemocDemoc Democ RegimeDemoc RegimeStateState FoundingFounding CollapsesCollapsesGermanyGermany 19191919 19331933CzechoslovakiaCzechoslovakia 19181918 1938*1938*PolandPoland 19181918 19261926AustriaAustria 19201920 19331933HungaryHungary 1920*1920* 19321932EstoniaEstonia 19181918 19341934LatviaLatvia 19201920 19341934
Neville ChamberlainNeville Chamberlain1869-19401869-1940
British Prime Minister, 1937-British Prime Minister, 1937-4040
Chamberlain: Peace in our Time Chamberlain: Peace in our Time (Sept 1939)(Sept 1939)
Chamberlain’s CaseChamberlain’s Case
Difficulty of Evaluating Hitler’s IntentionsDifficulty of Evaluating Hitler’s Intentions– Hitler’s offers at Rhineland Crisis 1936Hitler’s offers at Rhineland Crisis 1936– Hitler’s offers during Munich Crisis 1938Hitler’s offers during Munich Crisis 1938– Hitler's actual objectives (Hossbach Memo, 1937)Hitler's actual objectives (Hossbach Memo, 1937)
Britain not ready for warBritain not ready for warBritain’s geopolitical nightmareBritain’s geopolitical nightmareBritish Public OpinionBritish Public Opinion
Defining AppeasementDefining Appeasement– General DefinitionGeneral Definition– 1895 – US & GB: Appeasement worked1895 – US & GB: Appeasement worked
The Churchill DebatesThe Churchill Debates
“Appeasement is feeding a crocodile and hoping to be eaten last.”
-- Churchill
Churchill CriticsChurchill Critics
John CharmleyU of East Anglia
David Irving
Christopher HitchensChristopher Hitchens
Churchill’s CaseChurchill’s Case
We should have gone to war in 1938We should have gone to war in 1938
The German GeneralsThe German Generals
Military balance was not bad Military balance was not bad
The SovietsThe Soviets
The balance of power worsened after The balance of power worsened after 19381938
Munich did not get Britain any Munich did not get Britain any “breathing space”“breathing space”
Balance of Military PowerBalance of Military Power
19381938 19391939British Army to FranceBritish Army to France 2 divisions2 divisions 4 divisions4 divisionsRAFRAF 5 squadrons Hurricane/5 squadrons Hurricane/ 26 squadrons26 squadrons
SpitfireSpitfire
French ArmyFrench Army 100 divisions100 divisions 100 divisions100 divisionsFrench tanksFrench tanks 13501350 22502250
Czech ArmyCzech Army 40 div40 div 00
German regular ArmyGerman regular Army 47 div47 div 51 div51 divGerman reservesGerman reserves 51div51div 51 div51 divGerman west defenseGerman west defense 10 div10 div 12 reg div, 25 reserve div12 reg div, 25 reserve divTanksTanks 2x 19382x 1938Panzer divisionsPanzer divisions 33 66German submarinesGerman submarines 66 2626German major warshipsGerman major warships 11 1111
Taylor, Munich
What Germany Got from CZSWhat Germany Got from CZSafter Munichafter Munich
1,231 aircraft1,231 aircraft
810 tanks810 tanks
1,996 anti-tank guns1,996 anti-tank guns
2,254 field artillery pieces2,254 field artillery pieces
57,000 machine guns57,000 machine guns
630,000 rifles630,000 riflesMurray & Millett, A War to Be Won
Armament ProgramsArmament Programs
CountryCountry YearYear AmountAmount
G BritainG Britain 1935-361935-36 £122.2 M£122.2 M
G BritainG Britain 1938-391938-39 £319.6 M£319.6 M
FranceFrance 19341934 11.4 B francs11.4 B francs
FranceFrance 19381938 26 B francs26 B francs
Encarta
Josef Dzhugashvili, aka StalinJosef Dzhugashvili, aka Stalin
1879-1953, b. in Georgia1879-1953, b. in Georgia
Soviet Dictator, 1928-53Soviet Dictator, 1928-53
1928: First “Five Year Plans” 1928: First “Five Year Plans” beginbegin
Brutal policies led to 25-30 Brutal policies led to 25-30 million dead million dead beforebefore WW2 WW2
Ideological communist?Ideological communist?
Great Russia Nationalist?Great Russia Nationalist?
Risk-acceptant or Risk-Risk-acceptant or Risk-adverse?adverse?
“The death of one man is a tragedy; the death of a million is a statistic.”
Stalin & HitlerStalin & Hitler
1932-33: Stalin prevents Socialist-1932-33: Stalin prevents Socialist-Communist cooperation to stop Hitler Communist cooperation to stop Hitler from taking powerfrom taking power1934-38: Popular Front Policy 1934-38: Popular Front Policy 1938: Stalin at Munich1938: Stalin at Munich1939-41: Appeasement1939-41: AppeasementJune 1941: Disaster of June 1941: Disaster of BarbarossaBarbarossa
1938: Anschluss1938: Anschluss
Stalin Purges the Red ArmyStalin Purges the Red Army
Feb 1937 to Nov 1938Feb 1937 to Nov 1938““Great Purge”Great Purge”3 of 5 Marshals3 of 5 Marshals3 of 4 Army Commanders3 of 4 Army CommandersAll 15 second-rank army All 15 second-rank army commanderscommandersBoth fleet commandersBoth fleet commanders51 of 57 Corps commanders51 of 57 Corps commanders140 of 186 division commanders140 of 186 division commanders
Marshal Tukachevsky
Robert Tucker, Stalin in PowerTucker, Stalin in Power, 1992
The Hitler-Stalin Pact, 1939The Hitler-Stalin Pact, 1939
Kissinger’s Analysis:Kissinger’s Analysis:What Went Wrong?What Went Wrong?
Mistake: Focus on Motive rather than PowerMistake: Focus on Motive rather than PowerMistake: West rearmed too lateMistake: West rearmed too lateMistake: Contradiction in French StrategyMistake: Contradiction in French Strategy
Basic LessonsBasic LessonsParadox of Peace Policy: Peace at any price can Paradox of Peace Policy: Peace at any price can produce warproduce warWarning: Few situations in IR deal with Warning: Few situations in IR deal with unambiguous evil like Hitlerunambiguous evil like Hitler
Fall of FranceFall of FranceMay-June 1940May-June 1940