The Anemia Continues...Elliott D. Pollack & Company Data through October 2014. Percentage of Homes Purchased with Cash Maricopa County – Single Family & Condo 2003 – 2014 Source:

Elliott D. Pollack & Company

The Anemia Continues

(and other complaints about the

housing market)

Arizona State University

December 3rd, 2014

Presented By:

Elliott D. Pollack

CEO, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

Elliott D. Pollack & Company 1

Welcome to Arizona


Year Rank

2003 4

2004 2

2005 2

2006 2

2007 17

2008 46

2009 49

2010 49

2011 28

2012 9

2013 10

2014* 12

Year Rank

1991 19

1992 23

1993 5

1994 2

1995 2

1996 2

1997 2

1998 1

1999 2

2000 5

2001 9

2002 10

Arizona Employment Growth

Arizona’s Rank Out of 50 States Source: Arizona State University, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

*YTD October 2014 vs. YTD October 2013 2


Year Rank # MSA’s

2003 3 25

2004 3 25

2005 1 26

2006 1 27

2007 9 28

2008 24 28

2009 23 24

2010 23 23

2011 14 25

2012 9 27

2013 7 28

2014* 12 28

Year Rank # MSA’s

1991 4 19

1992 4 19

1993 2 19

1994 1 19

1995 1 20

1996 1 21

1997 1 22

1998 1 23

1999 3 24

2000 9 25

2001 7 26

2002 5 25

Phoenix-Mesa Employment Growth (Ranking among all metro areas greater than 1,000,000)

Source: Arizona State University, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

*YTD October 2014 vs. YTD October 2013 3


U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment

2005 – 2014* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

128,000

130,000

132,000

134,000

136,000

138,000

140,000

*Data through October 2014.

Peak 138.4 million Jan. 2008

Feb. 2010

8.7 Million U.S.

Jobs Lost (6.3%)

10 Mil. Jobs Added

(115.1% Recovered)

139.7 million October 2014

(000’s)

4


Greater Phoenix Has Gained 75% of Lost Jobs

60,200 Jobs (25%) Still to Recover

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thousands of Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted

Data through October 2014.

1,930,800 July 2007

1,685,500 Sept. 2010

245,300 Phoenix

Jobs Lost (13%)

185,100 Jobs

Regained (75%)

5


Employment Levels:

Greater Phoenix back to Peak in 2016 or 2017? Source: ADOA

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

Jan-

95

Jul-9

5

Jan-

96

Jul-9

6

Jan-

97

Jul-9

7

Jan-

98

Jul-9

8

Jan-

99

Jul-9

9

Jan-

00

Jul-0

0

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Jan-

14

Jul-1

4

Jan-

15

Jul-1

5

Jan-

16

Recession Periods

Peak

*Based on seasonally unadjusted monthly data

6


Why has Greater

Phoenix growth in this

cycle been subpar

relative to its historical

norm?

7


(1) Significant slowdown in

population flows

(2) Steeper housing decline and

modest recovery

8


The Greater Phoenix

Unemployment Rate is now 5.8%.

At the same point in the last two

cycles, it was 4.0% and 3.8%,

respectively.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9


Since the Recovery

Greater Phoenix has created

174,000 jobs.

By Comparison, for the first 48

months of the previous two

recoveries, Greater Phoenix

created 256,900 and 225,300 jobs,

respectively.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

10


Since the Recovery the

Greater Phoenix population has

increased by 217,600 persons.

By Comparison, for the first 5 years

of the previous two recoveries,

Greater Phoenix population

increased by 608,700 and 482,900

persons, respectively.

Source: Arizona Department of

Administration 11


Good News!


Good news - housing fundamentals are

positive!

(1) Economic growth is accelerating

(2) Mortgage rates are low & lending is loosening up a bit

(3) Affordability is still good and price gains are slowing

(4) Foreclosure & delinquency rates are low & distressed sales are

less than 10% of the market

(5) Investors are leaving creating more opportunity for buyers

needing financing

(6) International demand for housing still strong

(7) Construction is up - apartments and office buildings

13


United States Real Gross Domestic Product*

Annual Growth 1970 - 2015** Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis & Blue Chip Economic Indicators

0.2%

3.3%

5.2%

5.6%

-0.5%-0.2%

5.4%

4.6%

5.6%

3.2%

-0.2%

2.6%

-1.9%

4.6%

7.3%

4.2%

3.5%3.5%

4.2%

3.7%

1.9%

-0.1%

3.6%

2.7%

4.0%

2.7%

3.8%

4.5%4.5%

4.8%

4.1%

0.9%

1.8%

2.8%

3.8%3.4%

2.7%

1.8%

-0.3%

-2.8%

2.5%

1.8%

2.3%2.2%2.2%

3.0%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

* Based on chained 2009 dollars.

** 2014 and 2015 are a forecast from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, November 2014.

Recession Periods

3.7% = 40-year avg during expansion

3.1% = 20-year avg during expansion

2005

14


Mortgage Rates are Low

and Lending is Loosening Up A Bit

15


30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate

1972 – 2014* Source: Federal Reserve

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

Recession Periods

16 *Data through October 2014.


Net Percentage of Large U.S. Banks

Reporting Eased Standards versus Tougher Standards

on Residential Mortgage Prime Loans 2007 Q1 – 2014 Q3

Source: Federal Reserve

-80.0%

-70.0%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

Recession Periods

17


Affordability still good.


Greater Phoenix

Housing Opportunity Index

1991 – 2014 Source: NAHB-Wells Fargo

63.961.6

77.0

66.7

62.2

65.066.4 67.6

70.7

64.8

70.0

75.473.8

67.5

41.0

26.6

33.2

71.6

82.9 83.586.0

80.9

70.668.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

1991

Q3

1992

Q3

1993

Q3

1994

Q3

1995

Q3

1996

Q3

1997

Q3

1998

Q3

1999

Q3

2000

Q3

2001

Q3

2002

Q3

2003

Q3

2004

Q3

2005

Q3

2006

Q3

2007

Q3

2008

Q3

2009

Q3

2010

Q3

2011

Q3

2012

Q3

2013

Q3

2014

Q3

Note: HOI is a measure of the percentage of homes sold in a given

Area that are affordable to families earning the area’s median income

During a specific quarter. Data for 1996 Q3 is an estimate. 19


Foreclosures and

Delinquency Rates Low

20


U.S. Completed Foreclosures

2000 – 2014* Source: CoreLogic Recession Periods

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

21 *Data through September 2014.


Delinquency Rate

on Single Family Residential Mortgages

1991 – 2014* Source: Federal Reserve

1.4%

11.3%

7.4%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Recession Periods

22 *Data through Q2 2014.


Investors no longer buying in mass.

23


Percentage of Homes Purchased with Cash

Maricopa County – Single Family & Condo

2003 – 2014* Source: Cromford Report

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

24 *Data through October 2014.


International Demand for Housing Strong.

How to catch a Canadian.

25


International Immigration

as a Percentage of Total Population Net Change

2001 – 2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Data for 2010 not available

47.1% 47.5%

45.4%

42.6%

38.1%

41.6%

36.2%

32.1% 32.5%

31.1%

38.1% 37.4%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013

26


Construction up –

Apartments and Office Buildings

27


Greater Phoenix

Multi-Family Housing Deliveries

2000 – 2016* Source: CBRE

8,144

9,092

6,167

4,511 4,586 5,025

3,433

5,221

4,621

7,656

1,426

617 1,060

3,186

4,668

6,518 6,351

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

*2014 – 2016 forecast is from CBRE as of third quarter 2014.

# of units

28


Greater Phoenix

Office Building Completions (square feet)

2000 – 2015* Source: CBRE

*2014 currently under construction

2015 planned construction

29

2,980.3

4,794.7

2,345.5

675.5

1,458.0 1,166.1

2,567.0

5,023.6

3,856.8

1,815.5

1,154.6

439.1 317.1 208.9

2,787.3

6,868.9

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

(000s)


Bad News.

30


Bad news- people aren’t buying. Why?

(1) Fewer people moving

(2) Fewer people moving to Arizona

(3) Slower employment growth

(4) Negative Equity

(5) “Penalty Box”

(6) Millennials

(7) Student loan debt

(8) SB 1070

(9) FINANCING !!!!

31


Distribution of Movers in U.S. by Type*

1990-2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

*Excludes movers in the same county

7.9 7.9 7.9 8.2 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.4 8.8 7.6 8.1 7.7 7.8 7.8 8.0 7.4

6.3 6.4 6.2 5.9 6.8 7.0

7.1 7.1 6.9 6.7 5.7

6.5 6.4 6.4

7.5 8.4

7.8 7.8

7.6 7.3 7.4 5.7

4.9

4.7 4.7 4.3 4.8

5.1 4.8

1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2

0.8

1.4 1.3 1.2

1.4

1.7

1.8 1.6

1.3 1.3 1.9

1.3

1.2

1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1

1.2 1.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Diffeferent county, same state Different county, different state From Abroad

11.5

12.8

18.9

Movers

(in

mill

ions)

32


Arizona Rank

Population Growth

1991-2013 Source: Census Bureau

6 4

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2

5

8

19

14 13

7 8

33


5 2

7

1

Arizona Population Growth Was

Slow But Still Top 10 in 2013

8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

3

9

6

Growing

Declining

Top 10

10

Alaska

Hawaii

4

34


Arizona Population

Annual Percent Change 1975–2013 Source: AZ Dept. of Administration

2.8%2.7%

3.4%3.7%

4.8%

2.9%3.4%

2.8%2.7%

3.3%

3.8%3.9%3.9%

2.9%2.5%

1.7%

2.8%

3.4%

3.8%

4.4%4.4%

3.5%3.3%

3.1%2.9% 3.0%

2.2%2.3%2.6%

3.1%

3.5%

3.2%

2.6%

1.5%

0.3%0.2%

0.6%0.9%

1.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Recession Periods

Pre-2008 Avg. 3.2%

35


Arizona Population

Annual Net Change 1975–2013 Source: AZ Dept. of Administration

61.662.0

79.0

91.0

121.0

77.593.6

79.879.1

98.2

116.4

124.7128.8

98.187.0

61.9

104.5

127.2

149.7

179.6187.4

154.4150.1146.4

140.5151.8

111.9

123.7

143.1

171.4

198.9191.9

158.6

93.7

20.412.5

36.6

60.4

82.5

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Recession Periods

36


1

7

3

2

5

10 4

8

Arizona Still Top 10 in Attracting

Domestic Migrants as of 2013

6

U.S. Census Bureau

Positive Domestic Migration

Negative Domestic Migration

Top 10

9

Alaska

Hawaii

37


Arizona Domestic Migration

Ranking Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Year Rank

2005 2

2006 3

2007 4

2008 3

2009 11

2011 12

2012 3

2013 6

*No data available for 2010

38


1

9

4

3

6

7

5 8

California, New York & Florida Attracted

Most International Migrants in 2013

2

U.S. Census Bureau

18

Alaska

Hawaii

Positive International Migration

Negative International Migration

Top 10

10

39


Arizona International Migration

Ranking Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Year Rank

2005 8

2006 9

2007 8

2008 9

2009 8

2011 8

2012 18

2013 18

*No data available for 2010

Immigration represented 14% of total population increase in 2013.

That compares to 37% nationally.

40


How quickly are population

flows going to recover?

41


SLOWLY!

Still buffering, seriously?

42


Fewer people mean fewer

houses.

43


Greater Phoenix Population

Source: AZ Dept. of Administration; University of Arizona Forecasting Project; EDPCo

Greater Phoenix Population Estimates and Projections

Population 2014 2015 2016

EDPCO Forecast as of 2014 Q4 4,403,752 4,483,020 4,572,680

Net Change 65,080 79,268 89,660

% Change 1.5% 1.8% 2.0%

U of A Forecasting Project Forecast as of 2014 Q4 4,403,817 4,473,290 4,550,366

Net Change 65,145 69,473 77,076

% Change 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%

Arizona Dept. of Administration Forecast as of 2012 Q4 4,393,500 4,478,700 4,577,100

Net Change 64,200 85,200 98,400

% Change 1.5% 1.9% 2.2%

44


Greater Phoenix Population

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census; Arizona Department of Administration; University of Arizona Forecasting Project YEAR POPULATION APR

1960 726,183 6.9%

1970 1,039,807 3.7%

1980 1,600,093 4.4%

1990 2,238,498 3.4%

2000 3,251,876 3.8%

2010 4,192,887 2.6%

2015* 4,481,056 1.3%

2020* 4,974,545 2.1%

*Forecasts as of 2014 Q4 45


If you believe that

population forecast,

it implies an average of

more than 21,100 single family units

will be built each year

from 2014 through 2020 (only if

homeownership comes back).

46


Employment

47


Greater Phoenix Employment*

Annual Percent Change 1975–2013 Source: Arizona Department of Administration

-3.7%

4.9%

8.7%

13.3%

10.4%

3.7%

3.0%

-0.1%

5.8%

11.2%

9.3%

4.8%3.5%

5.9%

2.5%

2.2%

-0.3%

1.1%

4.9%

6.6%7.2%

7.3%

5.4%5.4%

4.6%

3.5%

1.2%

-0.1%

1.5%

3.9%

6.2%5.4%

1.7%

-2.5%

-7.8%

-1.9%

1.5%2.6%2.8%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

*Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in 1990.

Not seasonally adjusted

Recession Periods

Pre-2008 Avg. 4.6%

48


Greater Phoenix Employment*

Annual Net Change 1975–2013 Source: Arizona Department of Administration

Recession Periods

-16.4

21.1

39.3

65.357.8

22.819.2

-0.4

37.9

77.971.6

40.231.2

53.9

23.821.8

-3.5

11.2

49.8

70.882.188.8

70.575.1 66.853.6

20.1

-0.1

24.1

64.4

104.597.4

31.6

-47.9

-146.8

-32.4

25.7

43.948.5

-160.0-140.0-120.0-100.0

-80.0-60.0-40.0-20.0

0.020.040.060.080.0

100.0120.0

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

(000s)

*Non-agricultural wage & salary employment. Changed from SIC to NAICS reporting in 1990.

Not seasonally adjusted

49



U.S. and Greater Phoenix

Negative Equity Share

2010–2014 Source: CoreLogic

24.9% 22.5% 22.3%

14.5%

10.7%

41.9%

25.6%

19.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2

U.S. Greater Phoenix

51


U.S. and Greater Phoenix

Percent of Borrowers with Home Equity

Between 0% and 20%


21.7% 22.3% 22.8% 21.4%

19.0%

20.9% 21.2%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2


52



Year U.S.

Foreclosures % chg year

ago Greater Phoenix

Foreclosures % chg year

ago

2002 230,750 4,288

2003 253,584 9.9% 4,788 11.7%

2004 273,930 8.0% 3,881 -18.9%

2005 290,872 6.2% 1,108 -71.5%

2006 379,380 30.4% 935 -15.6%

2007 587,872 55.0% 9,550 921.4%

2008 972,933 65.5% 38,427 302.4%

2009 1,009,284 3.7% 47,054 22.5%

2010 1,145,292 13.5% 49,338 4.9%

2011 930,633 -18.7% 42,518 -13.8%

2012 821,689 -11.7% 22,629 -46.8%

2013 618,493 -24.7% 9,686 -57.2%

U.S. and Greater Phoenix Annual Foreclosures

2002–2013 Source: CoreLogic; Information Market

54


U.S. Foreclosure Lag


10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

CompletedForeclosures

3-Year Lag (FHA) 7-Year Lag (Fannie/Freddie)

Sept. 2014

Recession Periods

55


Greater Phoenix Foreclosure Lag

2002–2021 Source: Information Market

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

CompletedForeclosures

3-Year Lag (FHA) 7-Year Lag (Fannie/Freddie)

Oct. 2014

Recession Periods

56


Greater Phoenix Short Sale Lag

2002–2021 Source: Cromford Report

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Short Sales Foreclosures 1-Year Lag (FHA)

2-Year Lag (Fannie/Freddie; 20%) 4-Year Lag (Fannie/Freddie; 10-19%)

7-Year Lag (Fannie/Freddie; 3.5-9%)

Oct. 2014

Recession Periods

57


Millennials

58


Priorities..


Percent of 18-34 Year Olds Living With Parents

U.S.: 1983 – 2013 Source: US Census Bureau

26.7%

31.2%

24.0%

25.0%

26.0%

27.0%

28.0%

29.0%

30.0%

31.0%

32.0%

Recession Periods

18-34 year olds represent 23.5% of total population (74.3 million persons).

60 3.3 million more 18-34 year olds now living with parents.


10.2%

13.9%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Percent of 25-34 Year Olds Living With Parents

U.S.: 1983 – 2013 Source: US Census Bureau Recession Periods

25-34 year olds represent 13.6% of total population (42.8 million persons).

61 1.5 million more 25-34 year olds now living with parents.


Millennials

• 30-34 year olds in 2012 had the lowest

homeownership rate of any similarly aged

group before them.

• Five years prior, this exact same group (at 25-

29 years old) had the highest homeownership

rate than any group before them.

62


U.S. Median Age at First Marriage


18

20

22

24

26

28

30

Men Women

Baby Boomers

Gen X

Millennials

63


U.S. Homeownership Rates

By Age of Householder

1990 – 2013 Source: US Census Bureau

41.8%

34.1%

57.4%

48.1%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

25 to 29 years old 30 to 34 years old

Recession Periods

64


U.S. Homeownership Rates by Age

%-Point Change from 2006-2013 Source: US Census Bureau

65

-3.7

-5.8

-8.3

-5

-4.3

-0.1

-9.0

-8.0

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

Total Under 35 35-44 45-54 55-61 65+


Homeownership Rates

1986 – 2014* Source: US Census Bureau

69.0%

64.4%

72.4%

60.9% 60.0%

62.0%

64.0%

66.0%

68.0%

70.0%

72.0%

74.0%


Recession Periods

*Data through the third quarter of 2014. 66


Change in Greater Phoenix occupied

housing units Source: American Community Survey

2006 2013 2006-2013

Owner-occupied 68.6% of total

occupied

61.0% of total

occupied

-25% of total

change

Renter-occupied 31.4% of total

occupied

39.0% of total

occupied

125% of total

change

67


Greater Phoenix Occupied Housing Units

Net Change 2006 – 2013 Source: American Community Survey

126,321

-31,153

157,474

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Total Occupied Housing Units Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied


Greater Phoenix Renter-Occupied Housing Units

Net Change 2006 – 2013 Source: American Community Survey

113,908

7,224

34,412

1,930 0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

SF Detached Renter-Occupied

SF Attached Renter-Occupied

Multi-Family Renter-Occupied

Other Renter-Occupied

A total increase of 157,474 renter-occupied units between 2006-2013


Student Loan Impact on Home Buying

70


Student Loan Impact on Home Buying

• Purchasing power for a home is reduced by $52,500 for every

$250 monthly student loan payment.

• As of 2013, 42.2 million people have some student debt.

• 29 million (or 34%) of the 86 million people under 40 have some

student debt. These 29 million individuals translate into 16.8

million households.

• 5.9 million (or 35%) of the 16.8 million households pay more than

$250 per month in student loans. This is up from 2.2 million

households (or 22%) in 2005.

• Most households paying $750+ per month in student loans are

priced out of the market (approximately 2.0 million people).

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; John Burns Consulting; Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

71


SB 1070

72


Survey Regarding Arizona’s

Population

Are there too many illegal aliens in Arizona?

17% - Yes

22% - No

61% - No Comprende

73


What they Wanted to Say:

74

SB 1070:

“If you are an illegal immigrant

we don’t want you.”


What the World Heard:

75

SB 1070:

“If you are an immigrant we

don’t want you.”



Ability to Qualify

77


Tougher Qualifications 2002-2006 was not normal. 2009-present is not normal.

(1) More paperwork

(2) Automated underwriting standards make it difficult for

self-employed, commissioned sales people and affluent

retirees

(3) Lower debt to income ratios

(4) Longer lockout period after a foreclosure

(5) Higher down payment requirements

78


Real Issues

(1) FHA loan limit ($271,050 vs. the previous $346,250)

(2) Freddie/Fannie “put-backs”

(3) FHA vs. Freddie/Fannie (Increased standards & Longer

Lockout Periods)

(4) Dodd-Frank created a cloud

79


FHA Loan Limit

Impact on Greater Phoenix

New Home Sales Source: U.S. Dept. of HUD/FHA; ASU Housing Reports

80

2013 2014

FHA Loan Limit $346,250 $271,050

% of Homes

Under FHA Limit

70.9% 42.3%

Switching from FHA to Fannie/Freddie requires higher down

payments, higher FICO scores, and other more stringent

overall requirements.


FHA Loan Limit

Impact on Greater Phoenix

New Home Sales Source: U.S. Dept. of HUD/FHA; ASU Housing Reports

81

2013 2014

FHA Loan Limit $271,050 $346,250

% of Homes

Under FHA Limit

50.7% 65.9%

IF…

Elliott D. Pollack & Company *Data through Q3 2014

Average Borrowers Credit Scores

on All New FHA Loans

2007– 2014* Source: U.S. Dept. of HUD/FHA

632

703

681

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

Recession Periods

82

Approximately 40% of people are not eligible for FHA Loans

Elliott D. Pollack & Company *Data through Q3 2014

Average Borrowers Credit Scores

on All New Fannie Mae Loans

2004 – 2014* Source: Fannie Mae

716

762

744

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

Approximately 63% of people are not eligible for Conventional Loans

Recession Periods

83


Size of Median Down Payment

by Home Sales Price Source: Redfin; Bloomberg

84

Cheapest 25% of homes Middle 50% of homes Highest 25% of homes

2001-2007

average 2013

4.2% of

sales price

7.5%

2001-2007

average 2013

8.2%

8.8%

2001-2007

average 2013

19%

20.9%

78.6% 7.3% 10.0%


Mortgage Credit Availability Index

2004 – 2014* March 2012 = 100

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Recession Periods

85

750

1,000

500

250

0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

*A decline in the MCAI indicates that lending standards are tightening,

while increases in the index are indicative of loosening of credit.


Median Price of New Homes as a

Percent of the Median Price of Resale Homes

Maricopa County

2000–2014* Source: Information Market

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

160.0%

180.0%

200.0%

220.0%

*Data through October 2014

Recession Periods

86


A dimmer switch…

Not a light switch…

Bad

Good

Bad

Not great OK

Good

Great

Mediocre

Terrible

Housing

87


Multi-Family

89



Apartments

26-27 year lag


2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Baby Boomers

Gen X

Millennials

2014

91


Multi-Family Year-End Vacancy Rates

Maricopa County 1975–2015* Source: ASU Realty Studies / Hendricks Berkadia**

6.2%

4.1%3.3%

2.8%

3.9%

6.1%

4.4%

6.1%

6.9%

7.7%

10.1%10.6%

13.0%14.1%

13.4%

10.0%9.5%

8.0%

4.0%3.8%4.5%4.5%

4.8%

5.1%5.9%

6.8%

8.2%

9.4%9.6%

7.9%

6.8%

7.8%

10.2%

12.5%

13.4%

10.8%

7.5%

6.3%6.7%6.8%

6.9%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*2014 -2015 are forecasts from Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

**Data prior to 2005 is from ASU

Recession Periods

92


Multi-Family Housing Market Source: PMHS and Hendricks Berkadia

Absorption Completions

2007 (3,121) 3,800

2008 (4,466) 5,900

2009 9,100 6,231

2010 11,619 200

2011 7,729 303

2012 2,950 910

2013 3,230 2,350

2014* 5,480 4,140

*Data through third quarter 2014.

93


Multi-Family Housing Market Source: CBRE as of Third Quarter 2014

2014 2015 2016

Projected Completions* 4,668 6,518 6,351

*Complexes with 100+ units

94


Multi-Family Outlook

Higher population growth and continued

weak homeownership suggests the

outlook for apartments is excellent

95


OFFICE

96


Office Space Year-End Vacancy Rates

Maricopa County 1986–2015* Source: CBRE

26.7%

22.8%

24.0%

26.7%26.4%

25.4%

22.7%

18.8%

14.8%

11.7%

9.5% 9.2%

9.5%10.0%

9.9%

16.0%

18.8%

18.3%

16.4%

12.6%

11.1%

13.9%

19.1%

24.5%

26.2%25.5%

23.9%

22.4%

19.8%

18.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

*2014 -2015 are forecasts from the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip

Recession Periods

97


Greater Phoenix Office Market* Source: CBRE

Year Absorption (sf) Chg in Inventory (sf)

2005 3,119,293 7,987

2006 3,245,888 **2,320,302

2007 1,500,704 4,905,374

2008 (603,112) 3,402,646

2009 (667,329) 1,798,415

2010 233,670 2,011,404

2011 1,857,433 3,144,910

2012 2,020,529 973,282

2013 1,721,366 (35,566)

2014*** 1,458,559 701,300

*Only includes multi-tenant space greater than 10,000 SF

** A number of buildings in downtown and mid-town are being converted to office condos.

***Data through third quarter 2014

98


As of third quarter 2014,

there is 565,200 square feet

of speculative office space

under construction.

Source: CBRE

99


Under any reasonable

employment growth scenario,

we believe it will be at least

2017-2018 before any significant

office construction occurs (although some sub-markets like

Tempe

will be sooner).

100


INDUSTRIAL

101

Meanwhile

At the mattress factory


Industrial Space Vacancy Rates

Maricopa County 1980 – 2015* Source: CBRE

8.4%

9.4%

11.1%

9.7%

12.8%

13.2%

16.4%15.2%

14.6%

12.8%

14.0%

14.8%

13.6%

10.8%

7.4%

6.6%

5.7%

7.0%7.1%

8.1%7.4%

9.8%10.3%

9.7%

8.5%

5.6%

6.7%

8.4%

12.5%

16.1%

14.7%

12.4%

10.9%11.4%11.4%

10.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

* 2014 - 2015 are forecasts from the Greater Phoenix Blue Chip

Recession Periods

102


Greater Phoenix Industrial Market Source: CBRE


2005 13,349,129 7,072,477

2006 6,032,175 7,829,959

2007 8,359,835 13,914,181

2008 629,838 13,467,215

2009 (4,649,352) 4,753,218

2010 4,455,097 2,451,202

2011 7,753,111 2,842,185

2012 7,405,168 3,358,724

2013 8,783,982 8,902,571

2014* 4,978,228 5,060,168

*Data through third quarter 2014

103



there is 2.3 million square feet

of speculative industrial space

under construction.

Source: CBRE

104


Big box / small space

105


RETAIL

106



Retail Space Vacancy Rates

Maricopa County 1985–2015* Source: CBRE**

6.6%

8.9%

10.0%

11.8%13.1%

14.2%13.5%

12.7%

11.1%

9.8% 8.7%

7.9%7.5%

6.3%5.5%

5.3%6.6%7.3%

7.4%

6.1%5.3%

5.1%

6.2%

7.5%

11.4%

12.2%12.2%

11.0%10.2%

9.9%9.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

* 2014-2015 are forecasts from GPBC

** Data prior to 1992 is from Grubb & Ellis

Recession Periods

108


Greater Phoenix Retail Market Source: CBRE


2005 6,708,155 6,248,789

2006 5,244,597 4,582,618

2007 9,424,362 11,104,865

2008 3,395,986 6,229,205

2009 (1,117,100) 4,405,985

2010 (75,352) 902,380

2011 (152,647) 24,543

2012 1,879,005 184,932

2013 1,579,202 (325,959)

2014* 753,891 (146,171)

*Data through second quarter 2014

109



there is no square feet

of speculative retail space

under construction.

Source: CBRE

110


CONCLUSIONS:

How will it all turn out?

111



No recession on the

horizon...

… It’s slow but it’s

growing.

113


The economy is improving

in both absolute and

relative terms.

114


Greater Phoenix–

Slow but mildly accelerating

recovery.

2015 will be better than 2014.

Full recovery down the road.

115


For a quick analysis of

important economic data released

each week, subscribe to the

Monday Morning Quarterback

www.arizonaeconomy.com

(Click on Subscribe to MMQ)

116

http://www.arizonaeconomy.com/

Documents

The Anemia Continues...Elliott D. Pollack & Company *Data through October 2014. Percentage of Homes Purchased with Cash Maricopa County – Single Family & Condo 2003 – 2014* Source:

The Anemia Continues...Elliott D. Pollack & Company Data through October 2014. Percentage of Homes Purchased with Cash Maricopa County – Single Family & Condo 2003 – 2014 Source: