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THE
ALUMINIUM
STORY
www.thealuminiumstory.com
March 10-14, 2019 • San Antonio. Texas. USA #TMSAnnualMeeting • www.tms.org/TMS2019
Copyrighted material. Reproduction or distribution without written permission of the presenter is prohibited.
“The best design acknowledges that you can't disconnect the form from the material.
The material informs the form.”
“The only way to make the MacBook Pro unibody was to machine it from a single
piece of aluminium.”
Sir Jonathan IveChief Design Officer, Apple
“The Commerzbank Building is clad
in durable, anodized aluminium rain
screen panels, lasting for decades”
NORMAN FOSTERFoster + Partners
“The use of aluminium…brings benefits in terms of:
• weight savings,
• improved fuel efficiency,
• lower emissions,
• increased crash safety, and...
• better vehicle dynamics”
“...the material of choice”
“Aluminium allows Bombardier to manufacture low weight vehicles and thus reduce environmental impact, with a high quality exterior finish”
Guillaume RétauxDirector Strategic Sourcing
The industry must demonstrate that...
Dismantling of integrated value
chainIncreasing demand from customers for
responsibly sourced aluminium
1. it produces responsibly, by mitigating environmental impacts and positively impacting the communities in which it operates;
2. its products bring a net benefit to society in terms of reduced environmental impact; improved quality of life, health, safety & wellness and economic growth;
3. at the end of product life, the value of the metal, the energy that went into its production and the resource inputs are retained and realised as another product, through collection and recycling or energy recovery.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions• All sectors:
• Approx. 50 Gt CO2e in 2010 *• [ likely ~60 Gt CO2e in 2018 ]
• Aluminium industry (cradle to gate):• 1 Gt CO2e in 2018 †
Source: * IPCC 2014, † IAI
Source: IPCC 2014, IAI
…of which aluminium <1%
…of which aluminium ~1%
Vehicle light-weighting• 1 kg of aluminium, replacing heavier materials in a car or
light truck, can save 20 kg of CO2 over the vehicle life;• Similar number for electric vehicles in coal-intensive grids
such as India and China;
• Up to 80 kg CO2 per kg aluminium used in trains;
• The 20 million tonnes of aluminium shipped to the transportation sector every year could save half a billion tonnes of CO2 and over 100 billion litres of crude oil.
Building applications:durability matters
Source: KieranTimberlake Research Group/IAI
Protective packaging
Source: European Aluminium Foil Association
ALUMINIUM DEMAND
Semis shipments per annum
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Mill
ion
tonn
es
Other
Consumer Durables
Machinery & Equipment
Electrical
Packaging
Building & Construction
Transport
Source: IAI
Three quarters of all aluminium ever produced is still in productive use
• 1.3 billion tonnes produced since 1888• One billion tonnes still in use
• A positive recycling story but…
…more significantly a story of • Demand growth
• For light, strong, conductive, protective products
• 800 million tonnes produced since 2000
• Durability
• Long lifetime products not yet reached the end of “First Life”
• Long lifetime products tend to have high recycling rates (>90%)
Primary continues to dominate supply
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Sem
is d
eman
d (M
t Al)
Required Primary
Recycled (Old)
Recycled (New)
Source: IAI
Million tonnes 2000 2018 2040
Semis demand 35 95 160
Final product demand 30 80 140
Recycled aluminium 12 31 70
...of which “old” 7 18 50
...of which “new” 5 13 20
Primary required 25 64 90
RAW MATERIALS
Global bauxite demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Milli
on to
nnes
• + 50% by 2040;
• Additional 150 Mtpa;
• China ratio 60:40 domestic to imported to reverse (40:60);
• Fast growing regions of supply bring risks• supply,
• political,
• environmental,
• reputational. Source: IAI
What is included?
Sustainable mining
practicesGovernance
Community assessment
& contribution
Health & safety
Environmental assessment & performance
Guideline use
One or more case study per
section; practical
examples
Theory and how it applies to
bauxite mining
• Do’s and don’t’s• Key risks• Mitigations
Bauxite specific guidelines
WASTE MANAGEMENT
SPL and bauxite residueAnnual generation
Primary production
0
50
100
150
200
250
Milli
on to
nnes
Spent Pot Lining (SPL)Bauxite residue
Cumulative bauxite residue
0123456789
Billi
on to
nnes
Source: IAI
Risk Management
Local Environment
Local Communities
Regulatory framework
Government policies
Residue composition
Other identified
risks• Optimal strategy for a site at
a given time;
• Not “one-size fits all”;
• Approaches evolve to accommodate innovations;
• Best available technology, appropriate to local, national and regional circumstances.
ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE GASES
Growth of primary production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018
Mill
ion
tonn
es p
rimar
y al
umin
ium
Estimated Unreported
Oceania
South America
North America
East Europe (inc Russia)
West Europe
GCC
China
Asia (ex. China)
AfricaSource: IAI
Electrolytic energy intensity reduced by over 15% since 1980
World
North America
China
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
kWh
(AC
) / k
g Al
Source: IAI
Globally smelter power is now 60% coal-fired
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
TWh
Estimatedunreported
Otherrenewables
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Hydro
Carbon footprintprimary aluminium cradle-to-gate
0
5
10
15
20
25
World China Australia Europe GCC Canada
t CO
2e /
t Al
Transport
Thermal Energy
Ancillary Materials
Direct Process
Electricity
Source: IAI, GaBi
IAI Member Company Low CO2 Market Offerings
Primary production2040 scenario
0102030405060708090
100
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Milli
on to
nnes
Source: IAI
Primary production2040 scenario
0102030405060708090
100
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Milli
on to
nnes
Rest of World
Other Asia
North America
GCC
Latin/South America
Japan
Europe
China
Source: IAI
Total GHG emissionsHistoric
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2010 2015 2018
Milli
on to
nnes
CO
2e
Bauxite Alumina Anode production Smelting direct
2040 Scenarios (90 Mt Al)
New coal New gas New hydro 1/3 Mix +InertAnode
Smelting electricity Smelting other indirect Casting
Source: IAI, GaBi
CONCLUSIONS
• 50% increase in semis demand from today;
• Increased recycling rates only offer limited potential, due to long life of products;
• Scrap quality also an issue;
• Primary aluminium will continue to meet the bulk of metal demand, at least until mid-century;
• 90 Mt primary required (65 Mt today).
2040 baseline scenario
Increasing risks• Raw materials supply and waste management;
• Significant range of greenhouse gas emissions, primarily a function of power mix;
• Location of new smelting capacity uncertain, but likely fossil fuelled power;
• Some companies are already marketing “low impact” aluminium in response to customer demands.
The industry must demonstrate that...
Dismantling of integrated value
chainIncreasing demand from customers for
responsibly sourced aluminium
1. it produces responsibly, by mitigating environmental impacts and positively impacting the communities in which it operates;
2. its products bring a net benefit to society in terms of reduced environmental impact; improved quality of life, health, safety & wellness and economic growth;
3. at the end of product life, the value of the metal, the energy that went into its production and the resource inputs are retained and realised as another product, through collection and recycling or energy recovery.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Sem
is d
eman
d (M
t Al)
Required Primary
Recycled (Old)
Recycled (New)
Source: IAI
