The Advent of Smart Driving Technology:

Implications and Opportunities for the

Port Authority of NY & NJby

Alain L. Kornhauser, Ph.D.Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering

Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)

Princeton University

Presented at

Port Authority NY & NJNew York City

July, 2013

The Automobile’s 1st 125 Years

(1886-2011)

Benz patent 1886 1st Automobile Benz Circa 2011

Delivered: Enormous Personal Freedom & Mobility

But…Safe Operation Requires Continuous Vigilance

Good News: NY_NJ Region: Excellent Roadway Infrastructure

• Bridges & Tunnels most actively used in the nation (GWB ~ 300k Veh/Day)

• NJ Ranks 45th; NY 46th in traffic fatalities/VMT (higher is better)

• ~1.0 per 108 VMT (2006, http://www.census.gov/statab/ranks/rank39.html) (best is Mass@ 0.8)

• NJ Ranks 37th; NY 34th “Worst Driver’s in US” by The Daily Beast

Infrastructure can’t do much about “careless/inattentive”

We Love the Freedom & MobilityBut…Continuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers

Txtng while driving is out of control…

TravelTainment Industry Wants Everyone’sAttention

In In 717 out of 723 accidents ((99%)

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/NHTSA_Hendricks2001_UnsafeDrivingActs.pdf

“In 717 out of 723 crashes (99%), a driver behavioral error caused or contributed to the crash”

Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012

Response is Laudable

Kirkland, WA

But… Not Likely to be Effective

What AboutSmart Driving Technology?

Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles

Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation

Level 0 – No-Automation. The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls (brake, steering, throttle, and motive power) at all times, and is solely responsible for monitoring the roadway and for safe operation of all vehicle controls. Vehicles that have certain driver support/convenience systems but do not have control authority over steering, braking, or throttle would still be considered “level 0” vehicles. Examples include systems that provide only warnings

• Level 1 – Function-specific Automation: Automation at this level involves one or more specific control functions; if multiple functions are automated, they operate independently from each other. The driver has overall control, and is solely responsible for safe operation, the driver. The vehicle’s automated system may assist or augment the driver in operating one of the primary controls – either steering or braking/throttle controls (but not both).

• Level 2 - Combined Function Automation: Automation of at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. Vehicles at this level of automation can utilize shared authority when the driver cedes active primary control in certain limited driving situations. The driver is still responsible for monitoring the roadway and safe operation and is expected to be available for control at all times and on short notice.

• Level 3 - Limited Self-Driving Automation: Vehicles at this level of automation enable the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions.

• Level 4 - Full Self-Driving Automation: The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an .

Where Are We Now?R&D

“Level 3 Semi Self-Driving Automation”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE

Has drive ~ 500,000 miles with “Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation”

But…Hardware too expensive and Reliance on 3D Google Maps is “non-elegant”

Where Are We Now?

“Level 4- Full Self-Driving Automation”“-” indicates exclusive environment

Operational in Exclusive Environments

Now exist in essentially every Major Airport ( Inc. 2 at PANYNJ facilities)

APMAutomated People Movers

Milan

Beijing

Paris

and a growing number of Driverless Metros

Personal Rapid Transit: Morgantown (1975 - )

Remains a critical mobility system & expansion being plannedToday…

> 25M Driverless VMT Zero serious accidents

And Today…• Masdar & Heathrow are operational

Video

> 1M Driverless VMT Zero accidents

– Driverless Trucks in Australian & Chilean Mines

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0RCSX95QmE

• Volvo Self-Parking Car Prototype

“Exclusive” Parking Facility

Where Are We Now?Operational Bus Transit

“Level 0+ No Automation, Driver Assistance ”

Bus 2.0: Initial Demonstration of Transit-based Driver Assistance (Level 0+ , no control, only warning)

Fleet of 10 Gillig low floor busesMorning and evening express services22 mile (one-way) travel distanceReliable travel times in all weather and traffic conditions

Bus 2.0: Transit-based Driver AssistanceHow Do They Do It?

It Just Works!

Where Are We Now?Available in ShowRooms for Consumers

“Level 2- Combined Automation wit Constant Vig1lance ”

Intelligent Drive (active steering )BAS-Plus Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering )

Volvo Truck Emergency braking

DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research

More on Google: Levandowski Presentation

With Mercedes as the Market Leader in “Level 2-” and an incremental price tag that can be absorbed by a Price Leading Insurance Company, then other automakers will be enticed to follow which should lead to:

• Viral adoption by the car buying public and Fleet owners (Rental & Motor Carriers)

• “Moore’s Law type of price/performance improvement

• Market-driven Transition to “Level 2” and “Level 3” at same or even lower price structure

• Adoption and enhancement rates that are comparable to that enjoyed by airbags (With likely a comparable hick-up)

Implications of Viral Consumer Adoption of Level 2, 3 & 4- Technologies

to PA NY&NJ:

Implications on PANYNJ• Level 2 & 3 technologies represent new “customer operating

characteristics” that the PANYNJ will need to accommodate appropriately– May mean modification of lane markings and signage/information

dissemination – Modification of communications protocols– Creation of higher throughput “Managed Lanes”

• Implications of Fleet Adoption of Level 2 w/4- capabilities– Airports (Autonomous parking “Level 4-” feature)

• New “Automated Valet” Pick-up/Drop-off/Parking configuration• Modification of Rental Car Facilities • Automation of air-side activities (Very structured: just like an automated parking

facility) – baggage distribution– Air-side bus operation– Plane towing

– Port Facilities• Land-side container movement• Port-Intermodal rail transfer

Application of Smart Driving Technology

(Level 2-)

to New Jersey Buses?

• Fact: For over 40 years New Jersey has had the World’s Best “Bus Rapid Transit” System!

• It Consists of:• Efficient Boarding/Alighting @ Port Authority Bus Terminal

– 223 Departure Gates– Readily Accommodates 700 Buses/hr

The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System

• Fact: For over 40 years New Jersey has had the World’s Best “Bus Rapid Transit” System!

• It Consists of:• Efficient Boarding/Alighting @ PA Bus Terminal• Direct Access/Egress to Exclusive Lanes in the Lincoln

Tunnel• 3+ HOV Lanes on the NJ Turnpike that are, by default, essentially bus-only • Many Strategically Located Park&Ride Lots

The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System

• Pieces are Connected by:• “495-viaduct” Counter-flow Exclusive Bus Lane

(XBL)– Lane Segregation is by Removable Plastic Peg– Yet exceedingly Safe

» 3 (?) accidents in 41 years, no fatalities.

The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System

NJ Transit’s Self Insurance

• add Smart Driving Technology to the 3,000 buses…

• even at an incremental $30,000/bus this is < $100M• Can be paid for by the halving of the halving of the $13m/yr self-

insurance for the 15 year bus life.

• Could achieve sustained 3.0 second headways– Increases practical throughput by 50%

• from 700 -> 1,000 buses/hr; 35,000 -> 50,000 pax/hr

– Increased passenger capacity comparable to what would have been provided by $10B ARC rail tunnel

• Institutionally manageable:– All Express Buses are acquired according to NJT Specs.– Facilities (XBL, LT, PABT) are controlled by PANY&NJDoT

• Ideal test facility available: – Ft. Monmouth

PANYNJ Can Lead by:

A Perfect Storm Opportunity for PANYNJ

• PABT in desperate need of “rehabilitation”• XBL at capacity • “Helix” due for “rehabilitation”• Desperately need: Increased late afternoon in-

bound capacity for busses• New bus procurement cycle begins in 2 years• Test facility available @ Ft. Monmouth

• Concept Not New:

• Concept Makes Even More Sense Now!

Improving The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System

Thank Youalaink@princeton.edu

www.SmartDrivingCar.com

Discussion!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZ3s_cdk_yE&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D0ZN2tPihQ&feature=player_embedded

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/VolvoPlatooningConcept.wmv

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ridS396W2BY&feature=player_detailpage

Assorted Videos of Self-Driving Carshttp://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/1_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/2_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/3_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/4_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4