The 8The 8thth UKFIET International Conference on education and UKFIET International Conference on education and developmentdevelopment

13-15 September 200513-15 September 2005

Learning and livelihoodLearning and livelihood

A policy informing model: The processing of demography A policy informing model: The processing of demography as a determinant of the education systemas a determinant of the education system

Dr Rouaan MaarmanDr Rouaan Maarman

North West UniversityNorth West University

South AfricaSouth Africa

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

Once upon a time;Once upon a time; Ivor Richard (1981, 275) postulates that demography has an obvious and immediate effect on the Ivor Richard (1981, 275) postulates that demography has an obvious and immediate effect on the

development of national economies, the workforce and the whole social system. Therefore development of national economies, the workforce and the whole social system. Therefore demographic patterns will have important implications for the development of education systems, demographic patterns will have important implications for the development of education systems, which necessitate significant adjustments for those involved in policy formation, especially which necessitate significant adjustments for those involved in policy formation, especially regarding the allocation of financial resources and the recruitment of teaching personnel.regarding the allocation of financial resources and the recruitment of teaching personnel.

Global iniciatives of World Bank ( Millennium Development Goals)Global iniciatives of World Bank ( Millennium Development Goals) UNESCO (Education for All)UNESCO (Education for All) United Nations (Decade for education for Sustainable United Nations (Decade for education for Sustainable development & Literacy Decade) development & Literacy Decade) If 155 countries around the world report that 1 out of every 20 children are not attending school If 155 countries around the world report that 1 out of every 20 children are not attending school

(Unesco, 2004), shouldn’t educational providers upgrade their understanding of the target group (Unesco, 2004), shouldn’t educational providers upgrade their understanding of the target group from a demographic perspective also ? from a demographic perspective also ?

As long as the target group of the education system is viewed by educational providers As long as the target group of the education system is viewed by educational providers

(governments) as only pure numbers, the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (governments) as only pure numbers, the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014) will fell far short of it’s ideal.(2005-2014) will fell far short of it’s ideal.

Context of investigationContext of investigation

Demographic imperatives of our time demand a Demographic imperatives of our time demand a comprehensive comprehensive understanding and approachunderstanding and approach in the education system planning- in the education system planning-and provision context to address both quantity and quality in and provision context to address both quantity and quality in education system success.education system success.

Government awareness of the demographic imperatives in the Government awareness of the demographic imperatives in the education system context is suspect and education system context is suspect and provision usually start provision usually start andand end with learner numbers and funding.end with learner numbers and funding. A rather short A rather short sighted approach considering the critical challenges regarding sighted approach considering the critical challenges regarding demography (target group).demography (target group).

Demographic trends need to be disclosed in the context of the Demographic trends need to be disclosed in the context of the education system, and local demographic trends should be education system, and local demographic trends should be approached in the context of the approached in the context of the societal make-up of the target societal make-up of the target group.group.

What is demography ?What is demography ?

Schematic representation of demography

Population size Population composition Population change

Marital status

Absolute size Education level Mortality

Density Gender Occupation Fertility

Relative size Income Migration

Religious denomination

Age Language

Ethnicity

At given time Over given period

Method of researchMethod of research

Literature study:Literature study:

“ “Demography as determinant of the education system” andDemography as determinant of the education system” and

“ “ Demography and the education system of the North West province (South Africa)”Demography and the education system of the North West province (South Africa)”

Empirical research:Empirical research:

To determine the impact of the demographic realities on the education system and the To determine the impact of the demographic realities on the education system and the response of the education system to these demographic demands.response of the education system to these demographic demands.

Explicit research questions:Explicit research questions:

“ “How should learner and educator numbers be viewed in the education system from a How should learner and educator numbers be viewed in the education system from a planning perspective to level the playing field in terms of learning and livelihood?”planning perspective to level the playing field in terms of learning and livelihood?”

“ “ How should a model for the processing of demography in the education system How should a model for the processing of demography in the education system looks like, to pursue basic educational access amidst the demographic demands on looks like, to pursue basic educational access amidst the demographic demands on the education system?”the education system?”

On what do we base the demographic challenges for education On what do we base the demographic challenges for education systems ?systems ?

Context of universal demographic trends (Difference between LDC’s and Context of universal demographic trends (Difference between LDC’s and MDC’s)MDC’s)

Enrolment ratesEnrolment rates School life expectancySchool life expectancy Progression rates (through school grades)Progression rates (through school grades) Internal and external migrationInternal and external migration Birth and mortality rates of target groupBirth and mortality rates of target group Educator attrition ratesEducator attrition rates Implications of age structure Implications of age structure HIV / Aids statisticsHIV / Aids statistics Increase/decrease in occupational sectors Increase/decrease in occupational sectors

A model for the processing of demography as a A model for the processing of demography as a determinant of the education systemdeterminant of the education system

A:A: General demographic imperatives:General demographic imperatives: Life context of the target groupLife context of the target group

Specific and unique regional demandsSpecific and unique regional demands

Collective nature of planningCollective nature of planning

Applicability of measuring instrumentsApplicability of measuring instruments

Minimizing of census shortcomingsMinimizing of census shortcomings

Comparison of child statisticsComparison of child statistics

Universal and national dataUniversal and national data

Constant assessment of Constant assessment of success indicatorssuccess indicators in coherence with each other in coherence with each other

Consideration of existing and changing learning needsConsideration of existing and changing learning needs

Prediction capacityPrediction capacity

B:B: Relevant demographic imperativesRelevant demographic imperatives

Accurate recordingAccurate recording of these demographic data holds the key for adequate of these demographic data holds the key for adequate demographic processing in the education system.demographic processing in the education system.

Population numbersPopulation numbers Population growthPopulation growth Mortality ratesMortality rates Migration ratesMigration rates Age distributionAge distribution NuptualityNuptuality Education level, occupation & income of parentsEducation level, occupation & income of parents HIV/Aids statisticsHIV/Aids statistics

C:C: Structural education system approachStructural education system approach

Education system policyEducation system policy

Condition:Condition: Willingness to innovate and redefine priorities Willingness to innovate and redefine priorities

Guidelines:Guidelines: Variation and changing decision makingVariation and changing decision making Balance between immediate expectations and agreed parametersBalance between immediate expectations and agreed parameters Maintenance of provision standardsMaintenance of provision standards Flexibility Flexibility Region-bound conditions and interpretationRegion-bound conditions and interpretation Greater care with implementationGreater care with implementation

Structural education system approach, continuous … Structural education system approach, continuous …

Education system administrationEducation system administration

Condition:Condition: Time-bound administrative strategies and processes Time-bound administrative strategies and processes

Guidelines:Guidelines: Optimizing of education region administrationOptimizing of education region administration Viable educational infrastructureViable educational infrastructure Ongoing prioritizing of elementsOngoing prioritizing of elements Reconsideration and adjustment of monitoring and planning Reconsideration and adjustment of monitoring and planning

mechanismsmechanisms Involvement of stakeholdersInvolvement of stakeholders Time-bound centralization and decentralizationTime-bound centralization and decentralization

Structural education system approach, continuous …Structural education system approach, continuous …

Structure for teachingStructure for teaching

Condition: Condition: Planning of all education levels before demographic Planning of all education levels before demographic waves impact and adapting elements to realities of intake areawaves impact and adapting elements to realities of intake area

Guidelines:Guidelines: Viewing of demography in social contextViewing of demography in social context Accurate monitoring of elementsAccurate monitoring of elements Consideration of different post provision formulae for different Consideration of different post provision formulae for different

school phasesschool phases Maintenance of information-rich databases for elementsMaintenance of information-rich databases for elements

Structural education system approach, continuous …Structural education system approach, continuous …

Support servicesSupport services

Condition: Condition: Identification of new learning needs and matching and Identification of new learning needs and matching and planning of elementsplanning of elements

Guidelines:Guidelines: Provincial co-ordination of support servicesProvincial co-ordination of support services Distinction between rural and urban schoolsDistinction between rural and urban schools School-based servicesSchool-based services Effective liaison with other componentsEffective liaison with other components

General demographic prerequisitesGeneral demographic prerequisites↓↓

Relevant demographic imperativesRelevant demographic imperatives↓↓

Structural education system approach

Education system policy Education system administration

Condition: Willingness to innovate and redefine prioritiesOther guidelines: Variation and changing decision making Balance between immediate expectations and agreed parameters Maintenance of provision standards Flexibility Region-bound conditions and interpretation Greater care with implementing

Condition: Time-bound administrative strategies and processesOther guidelines: Optimising of education region administration Viable educational infrastructure Ongoing prioritising of elements Reconsideration and adjustment of monitoring and planning

mechanisms Involvement of stakeholders Time-bound centralising and decentralising

Education structure Support services

Condition: Planning at all education levels before demographic waves impact, and adapting elements to reality of intake area

Other guidelines: Viewing demography in social context Accurate monitoring of elements Consideration of different post provision formulas for different

school phases Maintenance of information-rich databases for elements

Condition: Identification of new learning needs and the matching and planning of elements

Other guidelines: Provincial coordination of support services Distinction between rural and urban schools School-based services Effective liaison with other components

ConclusionConclusion

Demographic fluctuations of societies have a vast array of implications for Demographic fluctuations of societies have a vast array of implications for all components and elements of education systemsall components and elements of education systems

Components and elements of this model have a reciprocal effect on each Components and elements of this model have a reciprocal effect on each other (model must be adapted to particular context)other (model must be adapted to particular context)

Pursuit of models, practices and innovations which can be applied between Pursuit of models, practices and innovations which can be applied between relevant determinants and education systems, was the drive behind the relevant determinants and education systems, was the drive behind the investigationinvestigation

The manufacturing of techniques which open doors for educational The manufacturing of techniques which open doors for educational providers by means of a model to inform educational provision policyproviders by means of a model to inform educational provision policy

From the perspective of demographic realities a model was presented to From the perspective of demographic realities a model was presented to evaluate deficiencies of educational provision policiesevaluate deficiencies of educational provision policies