The 21 things you need to know to understand why Britain ... · The 21 things you need to know to understand why Britain voted Leave Findings from poll conducted for the TUC Fieldwork

Total GB sample: n=2716

Weighted by age, gender, class, region, and political behaviour

Contact: [email protected]

@jamesdmorris

The 21 things you need to know to

understand why Britain voted Leave

Findings from poll conducted for the TUC

Fieldwork took place Friday 24th- Mon 27th June

mailto:[email protected]

45

44

43

28

28

27

22

22

18

17

16

15

6

0 20 40 60 80

Economy - any

Controlling our laws

Immigration

UK influence in world

Security and Terrorism

Jobs

Public services

Pride in Britain

Investment

Workers' rights

Prices

Equality

The environment

Which THREE of the following were most important in helping you decide which way to vote?

72

10

11

42

29

41

14

7

34

30

30

25

10

0 20 40 60 80

Voters Remain

20

75

72

16

27

14

30

36

4

6

4

5

3

0 20 40 60 80

Leave

Voted Total n=2216; Voted Remain n=1045; Voted Leave n=1136

28% of Leave

voters did not

say

immigration

was a top 3

issue

Overall, 40% said immigration was a key issue – level w/

sovereignty and economy

1) About immigration, but not all about immigration

2) The result was in part a verdict on the establishment

41

58 61

37

0

20

40

60

80

Remain Leave Remain Leave

Politicians, business leaders and other members of

‘the Establishment’ in Britain have let most ordinary

people down.

Politicians and business leaders make mistakes, but

most contribute positively to Britain.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Let ordinary people down (62%) Most contribute positively (25%)

• The 62% of voters who think the establishment let ordinary people down voted to

leave 58 to 41

• Those who think the establishment contribute positively, voted Remain 61:37

Let ordinary people down n=1382; Most contribute positively n=551

3) Leave had a stronger frame going into the campaign,

and amplified their lead as it went on Please indicate whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your views,

even if neither is exactly right.

28 26

45 40

37 34

49 49

No risk Take control No risk Take control

First statement much closer First statement somewhat closer

The most important thing at this referendum is making sure we don't risk Britain's

economy, security and influence in the world.

The most important thing at this referendum is getting control of Britain's borders,

laws and economy.

June March

March very likely voters n=1017; June voted n=2216

4) Voters did think Remain best for prices, but this

wasn’t a retail vote. Leave won key issues by a distance.

(X AXIS) Which THREE of the following were most important in helping you decide which way to vote?

(Y AXIS) Putting aside how you voted in the referendum, do you think leaving the EU or staying in the EU would

be better for each of the following issues? (% answering better to Remain)

Voters

Immigration

Control of our laws

UK influence in world

Jobs

Security and Terrorism

Public services

Pride in Britain

Workers' rights Investment

Prices

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

0 10 20 30 40 50

To

tal n

et

be

tte

r to

RE

MA

IN f

or

iss

ue

% saying issue important to their vote

Voted n=2216

5) A Leave vote was overwhelmingly a vote of optimism.

Remain voters more fearful

33

47

63

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Leave votersRemain voters

Feel WORRIED about what will happen Feel POSITIVE about benefits

Which of the following best explains why you voted for the UK to LEAVE/REMAIN a member of the European

Union?

Voted Remain n=1045; Voted Leave n=1136

6) Class and age tell the story – but don’t confuse

‘young’ with ‘young middle class’


71

29

53 46 51 46

33

66

43

56

32

67

0

20

40

60

80

Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave

18-34 ABC1 35-64 ABC1 65+ ABC1 18-34 C2DE 35-64 C2DE 65+ C2DE

18-34 ABC1 n=316; 35-64 ABC1 n=631; 65+ ABC1 n=334; 18-34 C2DE n=257; 35-64 C2DE

n=482; 65+ C2DE n=197

Understanding role of immigration

44

85

42

64

74

59

64

41

62

-20

-3

-19

-10

-8

-15

-8

-31

-12

-35 -15 5 25 45 65 85

Remain

Leave

18-34

35-54

55+

ABC1

C2DE

Left wing

Total

It is essential for the immigration system to reduce the number of migrants coming

to Britain

7) Vast majority think reducing immigration essential –

including most left wing voters and most Remainers

% agree % disagree

Total Post-ref n=2716; Left wing n=355; C2DE n=1209; ABC1 n=1507;

55+ n=975; 35-54 n=959; 18-34 n=782; Leave n=1136; Remain n=1045

21

11

28

6 15

9

20

6 11

28

14 17

6

48

5

36

60

23

66

13

49

22

54

14

32

49

38

32

13

73

12

62

0

20

40

60

80

As long as the system

is well managed,

immigration can be

good for Britain

Immigrants tend to

work hard and

make a contribution

to Britain

It is essential for the

immigration system to

reduce the number of

migrants coming to Britain

Recent immigrants

should be able to

use the NHS if they

fall sick

Jan 2014 Post-ref Jan 2014 Post-ref Post-ref Jan 2014 Post-ref Jan 2014

8) But, referendum not high point of immigration

concern– positivity is up, negativity down since 2014

Total Post-ref n=2716; Total Jan 2014 n=3027

Now you will see some pairs of statements. For each, please indicate whether the FIRST statement or the

SECOND statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right.

30

7

52 48

14

80

20 41

2

35

68

6

0

25

50

75

100

Better off Worse off Better off Worse off Better off Worse off

First statement much closer

First statement somewhat closer

The NHS will be BETTER off if the UK LEAVES the EU

because migrants would not have a right to use NHS

services, and because the NHS could get the money we

currently send to the EU.

The NHS will be WORSE off if the UK LEAVES the EU

because it relies on migrants who work as doctors and

nurses; and because the recession created by leaving will

mean there is less money for the NHS.

Voters Remain Leave

9) Majority believe migration and EU a major drag on

public services, including 1 in 6 Remain voters

Voters n= 2216, Voted Remain n= 1045, Voted Leave n=1136

18 32

6

41

65

19 25

8

41

43

21

64

Good Harmed Good Harmed Good Harmed



On balance, immigration has harmed our national culture.

Please indicate whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your views, even if

neither is exactly right.

On balance, immigration has been good for our national culture.

Voted Remain Leave

10) Country divided on whether immigration been

good for national culture.




33 53

15

51

72

32

22

8

36

39

19

58

0

25

50

75

100

Tolerant Country back Tolerant Country back Tolerant Country back



I want Britain to be a tolerant country where people of

different faiths and cultures have equal rights.

Britain's efforts to accept other cultures have gone too far

and this is a chance to take our country back.

Voters Remain Leave

11) In forced choice between v liberal and v socially

conservative position, half the country are liberals


12) Accusations of racism hurt the Remain campaign

more than the Leave campaign

17

15

32

27

0 20 40 60 80

Voters

Soft Leave

Very concernedSomewhat concerned

Below is a list of concerns some people had about

voting to LEAVE the EU. How concerned were you

about each?

A vote to leave would put me on the same side as racists

30

36

53

73

0 20 40 60 80

Voters

Soft Leave

Very concernedSomewhat concerned

Below is a list of concerns some people had about

voting to REMAIN in the EU. How concerned were you

about each?

The Remain campaign dismiss legitimate concerns about

immigration

Voters n= 2216, Soft Leave (voted Leave but seriously considered Remain) n= 209

Brexit policy and trade offs



25

47

6

43

72

18 28

8

48 43

16

69

0

25

50

75

100

Common market Immigration Common market Immigration Common market Immigration



The most important thing is that Britain keeps its access

to the common market in Europe.

The most important thing is that Britain gets complete

control over its immigration policies

13) As they voted, voters were divided on whether to

prioritise market access or free movement

Voters Remain Leave


Please indicate whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your views, even if

neither is exactly right.

20 24

39 45

26 18

47

37

0

25

50

75

100

Helps Hurts Helps Hurts



Free movement of labour in Europe is good and benefits the British economy and British workers.

Free movement of labour in Europe is bad and hurts the British economy and British workers.

14) If anything, the campaign made people more open to

free movement

March June

March very likely voters n=1017; June voted n=2216;

As you know, Britain voted to Leave the EU. Below are some policies that are being considered now that

Britain has voted to Leave. Which do you support and which do you oppose?

19

14

64

70

Guarantee that people fromthe EU who currently live inthe UK are allowed to stay.

Change the rules for who isallowed to live in the UK, so

EU citizens and non-EUcitizens have to meet the same

criteria.

Oppose Support

10

18

78

60

28

10

50

78

Voters Remain Leave


15) Most accept migrants already can stay, new rules

should ignore whether potential migrants from EU or not

16) Emphasising ‘control’ massively increases support

for liberal policies



47

26

35

58

Significantly increase thenumber of people the UK

accepts who are fleeing warand violence

Create a stronger system foridentifying legitimate refugees

and helping them integrate;then significantly increase the

number of people the UKaccepts who are fleeing war

and violence.

Oppose Support

32

16

50

69

61

34

21

48

Remain Leave


Voters

17) Leave or Remain, workers’ rights are sacrosanct



5

9

78

70

Guarantee the right to freedomfrom discrimination at work

will be protected even after weleave the EU.

Guarantee the automatic rightto maternity leave will be

protected even after we leavethe EU

Oppose Support

5

7

80

73

5

9

77

69

Remain Leave


Voters

18) Brexit should be handled by cross-party group and

experts



10 66

Put a wide group of cross-party MPs, experts, business

people, trade unions andothers in charge of negotiating

the UK's exit from the EU

Oppose Support

9 69 12 65

Remain Leave


Voters

Media and field campaign

19) The Sun, Mail and Times seem to have moved voters

towards editorial line – Unlike Guardian or Mirror

11

19

35

31

33

50

54

66

58

72

77

81

53

68

47

50

35

32

28

28

March 2016

Referendum result

March 2016

Referendum result

March 2016

Referendum result

March 2016

Referendum result

March 2016

Referendum result

Leave Remain

Daily Mirror/

Record

Daily Mail

The

Guardian

The Sun

The Times


+66

+62

+18

+37

+14

+0

-19

-34

-30

-44

Guardian n= 141, Times n=112, Mirror/Record n=119, Mail n=417, Sun n=216

20) Remain had higher contact rates by region,

especially in London

75

74

71

70

70

70

68

66

76

69

56

61

65

67

62

66

Wales

East of England

Greater London

Scotland

North

Midlands

Yorkshire & Humberside

South East/South West

Remain campaign Leave campaign

During the campaign, which - if any - of the campaigns…

… delivered leaflets or newspapers to your home?

… did you hear from on Facebook?

… did you hear from face-to-face, for example they knocked on your door or were at a street stall?

Wales n=136, East of England n=258, Greater London n=359, Scotland n=239, North n=429,

Midlands n=445, Yorkshire and Humberside n=234, South East/South West n=617

21) Social media and F2F contact skewed in direction

people voted – effective comms or self-selection?

72

20

11

67

20

9

Leaflet

Facebook

Face to face

Remain campaign Leave campaign

Voters Remain Leave

74

28

17

65

19

7

71

14

6

69

22

12

During the campaign, which - if any - of the campaigns…

… delivered leaflets or newspapers to your home?

… did you hear from on Facebook?

… did you hear from face-to-face, for example they knocked on your door or were at a street stall?


So what?

1. Not two tribes – Remain voters want to control immigration, Leave

voters not all obsessed by immigration, lots of policy overlap

2. Immigration was key to the vote though. Remain failed because it

conceded immigration and sovereignty. Should have attacked

Leave’s propositions on these issues.

3. Most challenging immigration-related issues are around culture

4. Like Labour in 2015, Remain had more contact in the ‘ground

game’, while losing the newspaper battle. Didn’t work out well

5. Broad sense establishment has let people down is a potentially

powerful majoritarian motivating force, but only if campaigns respect

voters’ core values and desire for effective government

So what?

Total national sample: n=2716, weighted by age, gender, class, region, past vote and

referendum vote

The poll was supported by the TUC

Contact: [email protected]

@jamesdmorris

The 21 things you need to know to

understand why Britain voted Leave

Findings from poll conducted Friday 24th- Mon 27th June

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

The 21 things you need to know to understand why Britain ... · The 21 things you need to know to understand why Britain voted Leave Findings from poll conducted for the TUC Fieldwork