THE 2008 Federal Election: Context and Issues

Prepared by:Donna Dasko, PhDSenior Vice President, Environics Research Group Ltd.

October 30, 2008

2008 Federal Election Report 2

Party Support – 2006 to 2008 Selected Environics polls

PartyJan. 2006

election resultsJune 5 to 30,

2007Dec. 12, 2007 to

Jan. 3, 2008June 13 to July

5, 2008

Election calledAug. 29 to Sept.

2, 2008

Conservative 36 37 36 35 38

Liberal 30 28 27 30 28

NDP 17 17 17 17 19

Green Party 5 11 13 10 8

Bloc Québécois 11 7 7 8 7

Other 1 – * * *

* Less than one percent

2008 Federal Election Report 3

The Campaign Context

The “issueless” campaign

What is the most important factor that will influence your vote? %

Health care 10

Environment 9

Leadership 9

Economy 9

Party promises 8

2008 Federal Election Report 4

Issues and Parties

Which party is best able to handle health care? %

Conservative 25

Liberal 25

NDP 23

Bloc Québécois 4

Green Party 1

No party best able to handle health care

2008 Federal Election Report 5

Which party is best able to handle the environment? %

Liberal 21

Conservative 20

NDP 20

Green Party 20

Issues and Parties

No party best able to handle the environment

2008 Federal Election Report 6

Best leader for prime minister? %

Harper 39

Layton 15

Dion 13

Duceppe 4

May 3

Issues and Parties

Conservatives had advantage on leadership

2008 Federal Election Report 7

Which party is best able to handle the economy? %

Conservative 41

Liberal 28

NDP 10

Bloc Québécois 4

Green Party 2

Issues and Parties

Conservatives had advantage on the economy

2008 Federal Election Report 8

The Conservative Advantage

Satisfaction with the countrySatisfied: 60%

Dissatisfied: 36%

Moderate record in governmentSatisfied: 47%

Dissatisfied: 50% Continued …

2008 Federal Election Report 9

The Conservative Advantage … continued

Declining salience of health care as an issue

Leadership

Handling the economy

2008 Federal Election Report 10

The Opposition Advantage

The coming economic crisis (early campaign) and the actual economic crisis (late campaign)?

Worried about the economic situation

Continued …

October 1991

October 2007

Early Sept. 2008

Sept. 24 to Oct. 1 2008

Oct. 2 to Oct. 14 2008

Worried 82 32 48 56 57

No worried 17 67 52 43 42

2008 Federal Election Report 11

The Opposition Advantage

The rise of environment as an issue?Support Liberal carbon tax: 42%

Do Not support Liberal carbon tax: 51%

Continued …

2008 Federal Election Report 12

The Opposition Advantage … continued

The “hidden agenda”?2006

A Conservative government seen as having different policies from the previous Liberal government

2008

A Conservative majority seen as having similar policies and directions to the past two and a half years

Continued …

2008 Federal Election Report 13

The Afghanistan wedge issue?Approval of the mission lower than ever: 41%

But the Liberal/Conservative agreement effectively removed the issues from the election agenda

Gaffes and mistakes?The Liberal “brand?”

The Opposition Advantage … continued

2008 Federal Election Report 14

(Before debate) Ending September 28/29

Nanos Ekos Decima

Conservative 37 34 36

Liberal 26 27 26

NDP 20 19 18

Bloc Québécois 10 9 9

Green Party 8 10 11

Daily Polls

2008 Federal Election Report 15

To October 6/7

Nanos Ekos Decima

Conservative 34 34 32

Liberal 31 25 25

NDP 18 20 21

Bloc Québécois 11 10 8

Green Party 6 11 12

Daily Polls

2008 Federal Election Report 16

To October 12/13

Nanos Ekos Decima Vote

Conservative 34.2 34.8 34 37.6

Liberal 26.7 26.4 25 26.2

NDP 21.4 19.4 19 18.2

Bloc Québécois 9.5 9.8 11 10

Green Party 8.2 9.6 9 6.8

Daily Polls

2008 Federal Election Report 17

The Winners ……..in rank order

Mr. Harper/ Conservatives

Pollsters

Mr. Layton/New Democrats

Mr. Duceppe/ the Bloc

Ms. May/Green Party

Conservatives in Quebec

Environment as an issue

Mr. Dion/Liberals

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