THE 1981 CENSUS PROJECT

An Outline and Some Findings

Graeme Hugo and Deborah Wood

Introduction

The publication of the Report of the National Population Inquiry (NPI) in 1975 marked a watershed in the analysis of Australian demographic trends and, more particularly, the making available of the results of such analyses to policymakers and planners. However, most of the NPI analyses refer to 1973 or even earlier data, and the past decade has seen rapid and significant demographic, not to mention social and economic, changes within Australia. Accordingly in 1982 the Department of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs (DIEA) commissioned the National Institute of Labour Studies (NILS) to undertake a major study based primarily on the 1981 Census to update the findings of the NPI, the major aim being to provide the DIEA and other government agencies and departments with information concerning recent demographic changes as rapidly as possible so that the policy implications could be elaborated and used by decision makers in the private and public sectors.

Although the broad aim was to update the NPI findings, the mandate of this report was somewhat different to that given to Professor Borrie when the NPI was initiated in 1971:

(i) Firstly and most obviously, the degree of historical analysis which is so excellently provided in the NPI did not need to be undertaken.

(2) Secondly, whereas Borrie was not bound to provide interim findings this study was charged with presenting findings from time to time.

(3) The emphasis was not so much with projections but rather upon elucidating trends evidenced by the 1981 census, although the implications of these trends for the future demography of Australia were considered.

(4) There was a less purely demographic bias and although much of the analysis centred on the traditional demographic areas of popu- lation growth and the contributory processes of fertility, mortality and migration, much of the time was spent analysing socio-demographic changes, especially in family change and family formation, changing population composition and population mobility.

(5) A more spatial perspective was sought in this study.

150

Outputs of the Project

There have been numerous outputs from the census study. One of the major outputs has been the presentation of the initial findings of the project in a series of working papers (Annex)~ These papers have been issued progressively throughout the term of the project. They have covered basic demographic components such as recent patterns of fertility and mortality; population composition in terms of population growth, interstate migration, regional population change, change in urban and rural areas; and characteristics of groups in the population such as first generation migrants and their Australian-born offspring, the characteristics of the Australian family and workforce and the changing distribution and characteristics of the aged population. A number of papers and articles have been delivered to conferences and seminars, some of which have been published in journals and books.

The last major output from the project has been a book, Australia's Changing Population: Trends and Implications by Graem~ Hugo, to be published by Oxford University Press and probably available in late 1985. Its aim is to describe and analyse changing demographic trends in Australia, to identify the major significant shifts which are occurring~ to explain them insofar as this is possible and spell out several key problems that policymakers can expect to face. In particular the results of the 1981 Australian Census of Population and Housing are the basis of an integrated demographic analysis of a range of population trends in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Underlying this study is a conviction that a thorough understanding of these trends can shed light upon pressing and urgent issues which face those with the task of developing policy and formulating plans for the next decade. A judicious look back to the experience of the last decade will greatly inform us in looking forward to the future. Unfortunately, in the past in Australia, deficiencies in planning allocation of scarce resources within all three tiers of government as well as in the private sector can be directly traced to a lack of availability of, or failure to consider, up-to-date information relating to demographic trends and their linkages with social and economic factors.

What follows here is a brief summary of some of the major findings of the project, specifically relating to the demographic components, population composition and characteristics of groups in the population.

Basic Demographic Components

In any study of population there are three fundamental components which must be examined, namely, mortality, fertility and migration.

Mortality Trends

Of all the demographic changes over the last century there have been few greater achievements than the reduction in mortality which

151

has extended the expectation of life at birth of females by some 29 years and males by 25 years. In 1983 the life expectancy for a male was 72.1 years and for a female 78.7 years (ABS, 1985). Until the 1970s the greatest improvements in life expectancy were at the younger ages, but during the 1970s there were increases in life expectancy at all ages including unprecedented major improvements in several older adult age groups. The general improvement in life expectancy is expected to continue throughout the 1980s. This will make little difference to the projected number of persons under retirement age but it does make a significant difference to the number of persons of pensionable age, which has significant implications in relation to the planning of the provision of future services for the aged.

Although there has been a large improvement in mortality there are still many significant mortality differentials. One of the most distinctive features of current mortality levels is the marked difference between the sexes in the expectation of life. In contemporary Australia, as well as the United States, Canada and many European countries, the expectation of life at birth of females is 6 to 8 years greater than for men.

The largest differentials in Australian mortality patterns are those between the Aboriginal and the non-Aboriginal population. Thomson (1982) found that for infant mortality the rate in 1980 for Aborigines was three times that of the non-Aboriginal population and that the age-standardised death rate for adult male Aborigines was almost four times greater than that for the total adult population, while the female rate was three-and-a-half times greater.

There are also mortality differences between birthplace groups, with the mortality levels of immigrants, in general, tending to be lower than those of the Australian-born. However, for some specific causes of death migrants have significantly higher rates. Lower standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) apply for white collar workers and higher ratios for the so-called blue collar occupational groups. There are also spatial differentials, with above-average SMRs in areas of low socio-economic status and below-average SMRs in the more affluent suburbs. All these variations in mortality reflect differences in environmental, social and economic factors which can affect health and survival chances.

The three major causes of death in Australia at present are ischaemic heart disease, malignant neoplasms and cerebrovascular disease. Deaths from heart disease increased noticeably in the late 1950s and early 1960s, but since the late 1960s a reversal has occurred. Unlike heart disease, however, deaths from malignant neoplasms (cancers) have continued to increase, with the increase being much greater for males than for females. Lung cancer is the most significant cause of death from cancer. For both heart disease and cancer, male death rates have long been significantly higher than for females. For cerebrovascular disease the female rate is higher.

In projecting future mortality levels it is anticipated there will be further declines in mortality. The recent and the impending improvement in mortality is having and will have a significant impact

152

on the growth of Australia's aged population. This will affect the number of services and facilities needed, especially health services.

Fertility

Over the last two decades Australia has experienced a rapid transition in fertility patterns, with fertility declining since the early 1960s and falling below replacement level in the mid-1970s. The decline occurred in all age groups with a general deepening of the decline during the 1970s. The patterns and the degree of decline have varied for each age group. However, in 1981, for the first time since 1971-72, age specifid birth rates rose for every five year age group from 15 to 44.

In the last two years there has been an increase in the number of births and an arresting of the fertility decline. Whether this represents a stabilizing of fertility levels, a temporary break in a longer-term decline, or the beginning of an upswing in fertility, is as yet unclear. While overall fertility has declined over the last twenty years, ex-nuptial births as a proportion of total live births have nearly trebled.

Significant fertility differentials exist between different groups in the community and over space. Some of the most striking differentials are those between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal population. Although throughout the 1970s there has been an overall decline in Aboriginal fertility the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is still well above replacement level and therefore substantially higher than that for the non-Aboriginal population. Differences beween immigrant and Australian-born fertility are becoming less marked over time, although there are still variations between some birthplace groups with respect to average issue. Differences also exist across income and occupational groups in society. Women who are wage and salary earners have substantially lower fertility than women not in the workforce. In terms of occupational categories professional women tend to have fewer children and they also tend to delay having children longer than other women. More highly-educated women also tend to postpone childbearing to pursue educational and career goals and therefore generally have lower completed fertility.

There are also significant spatial variations in fertility in Australia, at the interstate, intra-state and intra-metropolitan scales. Finally, the relationship between fertility and migration should be noted. There is a clear tendency for people who have not changed their place of residence since 1976 to have a lower incidence of zero parity women and a higher incidence of those with three or more children. The recently mobile population tends to have lower fertility in each of the major age groups.

153

Population Composition

Interstate Migration

Preliminary analysis of the Internal Migration Survey and the 1981 Census indicates that over the 1976 to 1981 intercensal period the pattern of interstate movement had a northward and westward gradient. During the late 1970s the movement became much more a northern one focussing upon Queensland and, to a lesser extent, the Northern Territory. In addition to this movement there were sub- stantial reductions in the net gains of the Australian Capital Territory, especially in relation to New South Wales and Victoria, net losses from South Australia increased and the longstanding northward net outward movement from Tasmania had declined. Gains from inter- state migration therefore are of particular significance in the rapid population growth of Queensland and the Northern Territory, while losses to other states are of major importance in South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania, which have the slowest intercensal population growth rates.

These net migration gains and losses have both social and economic impacts on the States and Territories. These may be amplified by the tendency for net losses and gains to be concentrated upon particular groups in the population. The overall levels of residential mobility revealed by the census are comparable to those in the United States, although no evidence exists of a downturn in mobility since 1980 similar to that in the USA. Examinations of the records of the States and Territories over the 1976-81 period, with respect to changes in employment, unemployment and job opportunities in the various sectors of the economy have shown a close correspon- dence between the economic fortunes and the interstate migration experience of the States and Territories in the late 1970s and early 1980s. At present in Australia there is little evidence that non- economic factors are having anything other than a minor influence in shaping the pattern of interstate migration.

Regional Patterns of Population Change

In studying regional patterns of population growth, changes both within and across the urban and rural sectors should be considered. From an examination of these patterns four major points were identified. Firstly and importantly, between 1976 and 1981 for the first time in this century the proportion of the total population living in rural areas increased. Secondly, between the 1976 and 1981 censuses the fastest growing sections of States were the "rural balance" and "other urban" centres. In addition, the most influential element causing regional differences in patterns of population growth is variation in patterns of population movement. Lastly, increased levels of population retention, or "non-migration", relative to earlier periods can be an important element in shaping population change trends between periods.

Particular regional patterns are in evidence for both non- metropolitan and metropolitan areas. For all of the States, except

154

perhaps Tasmania and the Northern Territory, the patterns of regional population change in the non-metropolitan areas for the 1976 to 1981 period were similar. Growth has tended to occur in three areas: (i) along the coast or in coastal areas; (ii) in local government areas (LGAs) adjacent to the metropolitan areas; and (iii) in LGAs contiguous to major provincial centres. There were also areas of decline in population, and these tended to be inland: generally dry farming areas.

For the metropolitan areas over the postwar period there has been a particular pattern of growth and decline. There is generally a ring of outer suburbs, in which most new, low-density residential development is taking place. Secondly, there is a ring of "middle" suburbs which experienced growth up until the 1970s but declined in the 1976-81 period. The final groups of LGAs are those which have a continuous pattern of population decline throughout much of the post- war period: the inner suburbs around the centre of the city. Some parts of the inner suburbs, however, have been affected by the process of gentrification.

The reversal in the long-standing trend of metropolitan concentration has involved three processes. The first of these is a redistribution of population from metropolitan to non-metropolitan places. There has also been an increase in the numbers of people remaining in the non-metropolitan sector. In the 1970s too, there was a smaller net gain of migrants from overseas; these are people who generally settle in the metropolitan areas, so even if all other things remained equal the growth of metropolitan areas as compared to non-metropolitan areas would have been reduced.

To examine in more detail the reversal in population movement to the metropolitan centres, patterns of net migration were looked at. Over the 1976-81 period, for non-metropolitan Australia, there was a concentration of areas recording net migration gains within commuting distances of the major metropolitan centres located along the eastern and southern coasts. There have also been significant population growth and net migration gains in a large number of non- metropolitan local government areas well beyond the commuting zone of large metropolitan centres. Net migration shows an even sharper pattern of regionalization and spatial separation than was the case for patterns of population change. Areas of net migration gain tend to be spatially contiguous and clearly separated from the areas of net loss.

Few inner suburban LGAs recorded net migration gains of population during the 1976-81 intercensal period and the dominant pattern remains one in which the bulk of young couples entering the family formation stages of the life cycle move to and establish them- selves in the outer suburbs. Many are going beyond the boundaries of the metropolitan area to settle down.

155

Population Change in Urban and Rural Areas

During the 1970s Australia entered an era of population change quite different from that of the earlier postwar years. There have been major realignments in patterns of fertility, mortality and inter- national migration and these have attracted considerable attention both in the community generally and among researchers. The first results of the 1981 Census, however, confirmed the existence of some significant changes in population distribution which have as yet been little studied in the Australian context. The census data show conclusively that during the 1970s there has been a reversal of the long-established trend toward increasing concentration of population in Australia's major metropolitan centres, as mentioned in the previous section. Analysis of change in urban and rural areas has demonstrated that some significant reduction in the concentration of both population and jobs has occured, away from the nation's major cities and toward certain smaller towns and cities and rural areas. This is in line with experience in other more developed nations, especially the United States.

The policy implications of such a trend are numerous and significant. Any shift in population distribution will initiate responses from both the private and public sectors in terms of the need to provide infrastructure and services in areas of growth and to cope with the problems arising from reduction in economic and social potential in the areas of decline. Much of the existing structure for planning and providing services is metropolitan city-oriented and may need recasting if the existing tendencies away from concentration gather pace. Important questions arise as to who is participating in this process and what costs and benefits accrue to the community as a whole as a result of it. Is this emerging pattern of settlement more costly to the community as a whole in terms, for example, of the use of scarce fossil energy sources which it entails?

It is clear that the de-concentration of population and employ- ment is part of, and a reflection of, wider social and economic processes occurring within Australian society, especially the major structural changes in the economy. As yet an understanding of these changes is limited and more research is needed into the population distribution implications of those economic and social forces. Only then will we be able to assess whether the "turnaround" is an initial phase of a new phenomenon of changing population distribution or a temporary aberration in a longer-term continuation of spatial concen- tration of population.

In Australia the issue of decentralization of economic activity and population growth away from the southeastern metropolitan centres has been the subject of much rhetoric but little action. Pryor (1978) compiled an impressive list of State and Federal authorities and specific policy measures they have been charged with to effect this decentralization. He concluded, however, that the programmes have failed to redirect internal migration streams or markedly to improve non-metropolitan job opportunities. This was in spite of significant proportions of Sydney and Melbourne residents professing a preference for living outside those large cities (Pryor, 1977). The 1981 Census

156

results would suggest that there is at least some evidence of a tendency toward the long hoped-for decentralization. It is unlikely, however, that this is a direct result of government policies suddenly becoming effective, and it remains for directed research to identify clearly the processes responsible for the change.

Specific Groups of the Population

The last section of this paper concentrates on specific groups in society or in the population, and how they have grown, declined or changed over time, especially over the intercensal period 1976 to 1981. The first to be looked at is the institution of the family.

The Australian Family

Since the immediate postwar period many changes have occurred in the institution of the family, especially changes in the patterns of household formation and household size.

In Australia rates of household formation have outpaced rates of population growth over the last half century. Between 1966 and 1976 the rate of household formation was twice that of population growth and between 1976 and 1981 the number of households increased at 2.5 per cent a year compared to a 1.5 per cent growth in population. Associated with this has been a consistent trend of a decrease in the size of households, evident for a century but accelerated in recent years. Since the 1966 Census the average size of the Australian household has declined by 12 per cent from 3.53 to 3.1 persons. The most commonly occurring household size is of two persons; single- person households, however, are the fastest growing category. One- person and two-person households in 1981 accounted for 47.1 per cent of all households, compared with only 28.4 per cent in 1947. In 1947, 29 per cent of households had more than four members, whereas in 1981 this applied to 17 per cent. This decline in family size has been caused by fertility and mortality decline, increased divorce rates, age-structure effects, and an increased tendency for young people to leave the parental home at a younger age.

The ageing of the postwar baby boom generation into young adults gave the major impetus to household formation outpacing population growth. Toward the end of the 1980s, however, there will be a considerable reduction in numbers of people entering the prime new- household formation ages. Besides age structure and age of first leaving home, the rising incidence of divorce is important in increasing the rate of household formation. The proportion of house- hold heads made up of permanently separated and divorced persons rose from less than one per cent in 1947 to five per cent in 1971 and to eleven per cent in 1981. In addition, there has also been an increasing growth in household headship ratios among the population aged 65 years and over.

Household composition and family structure have undergone fundamental demographic and sociological changes in the postwar

157

period. It is apparent that the conventional stereotype of the typical Australian family - a wife, husband and dependent children - needs to be revised as in 1981 it accounted for only 28.6 per cent of Australian families. If we also include families classified as comprising head, spouse and other adults (many of whom are adult children of head and spouse) and head, spouse, other adults and dependent children, the total proportion is 43.6 per cent of all families compared with 53.1 per cent in 1966. Of the other family types the single-parent family was the fastest growing. Between 1976 and 1981 their numbers increased by 90,000 to more than a quarter of a million. By 1981 they made up 6.6 per cent of all families. In addition, there is an increasing proportion of Australians (almost 7 per cent in 1982) living alone. Females make up 59 per cent of this group - 63 per cent of them aged above 60 - while 32 per cent of males living alone were aged over 60. However, the fastest-growing group among persons living alone was young adults. Census data show a low incidence of formation of three-generation households although the propensity to form such families (for example, persons of retirement age living with children and grandchildren) is much greater among Southern European-born populations than among Australian-born.

Changes have also occurred in headship rates by sex. Between 1976 and 1981 there was a large increase in the proportion of house- holds headed by women. The number of families headed by females increased by 38.6 per cent between 1976 and 1981, while there was a 6.9 per cent increase in the number headed by males. Most single- parent families are headed by a woman. For example, in 1981 there were 217,170 female single-parent families compared with 34,887 male single-parent families°

The major changes in the composition of families and in living arrangements are due to numerous demographic social and economic forces, in particular recent trends in marriage and divorce. Australians have begun to marry at much later ages. In 1971, 36 per cent of females and 64 per cent of males aged 20-24 years had never been married, whereas by 1981 these figures had increased to 54 per cent and 77 per cent respectively. The increasing rate of divorce also affects the rate of household formation. In 1961 there were 2.8 divorces per 1,000 married women and by 1981 this had increased to 12.7.

The changing demography of Australian families and households has profound implications in a wide range of areas. Identification and analysis of changes in the number of families and households, their composition, structure and distribution, and the explanation of those changes are basic to the academic study of many elements of change in our society.

The Ethnic Population

Immigration has played a major role in the growth, development and diversity of Australia's population. As a result of postwar immigration the proportion of the Australian population born overseas doubled from 9.8 per cent at the 1947 Census to 18.4 per cent in 1966,

158

the highest level since the turn of the century. During the 1970s, however, the proportion born overseas remained fairly stable due to the slowdown in immigration and the inevitable increase in the Australian-born as the large number of arrivals in the 1950s and 1960s had children. Therefore at the 1981 Census 20.6 per cent of Australia's population were born overseas and if one adds the second generation population of Australian-born with at least one parent born overseas, over 41 per cent of Australia's population in 1981 was associated with comparatively recent immigration.

England dominates as the major country of origin with over one-third of first- or second-generation Australians originating from there. Moreover, if one adds in the other Anglo-Celtic origin groups such as Scotland, Ireland, Wales and New Zealand, the proportion exceeds 50 per cent. The impact of Southern European immigration is also great, with over one million Australians being of first or second generation Italian, Greek or Yugoslav origin. Southern Europeans account for a quarter of all the first and second generation immigrant population. Those from Western Europe account for 10 per cent, those from Eastern Europe 5 per cent; more recent immigrants from the Middle East and South East Asia are represented by only very small groups.

Most of the second-generation immigrants are very young and most are still living with their parents. This pattern of spatial distribution, however, could change significantly during the next few years as the second generation age into the stage of the life-cycle when they are leaving the parental home, setting up independent house- holds and entering the family formation stage.

The specific timing of immigration into Australia and the selection procedures which placed heavy emphasis on the young mean the bulk of Australia's overseas-born persons arrived here as adults in their twenties, thirties or forties in the 1950s and !960s. Therefore there are today relatively few young overseas-born persons, and most major birthplace groups have a median age significantly higher than the Australian-born population. Over the next few years the number of overseas-born persons aged 60 and over is going to increase significantly. The overseas-born aged have grown more than twice as fast as the Australian-born aged during the 1970s and are likely to grow three times as fast as the Australian-born population aged 60 years and over between 1981 and 1986. A set of long-term projections of the ethnic aged prepared by the Australian Institute of Multi- cultural Affairs indicates that by the end of the century one in three older Australians will have been born overseas and nearly one in four will be an overseas-born person of non-British background. This rapid growth of the aged among the overseas-born from non-English speaking countries is of special significance: the ethnic aged may have some difficulty in their ability to call upon formal and informal support networks and services. One of the major problems is language, which poses a major obstacle to awareness and/or use of existing services for the aged among migrants from non-English speaking countries. These communication difficulties are to some extent compensated for by the fact that among groups like Southern European migrants the aged can expect to draw upon greater support and care from within the family than many of their Australian-born counterparts.

159

Lack of financial security is a major problem confronting the ethnic aged. In the 1981 Census, a generally higher proportion of immigrant aged reported receiving no income at all than did the Australian-born, and the proportions among all immigrant groups in the two lowest income categories combined is substantially greater than is the case among the Australian-born.

The second generation of immigrants - Australian-born persons with one or both parents born overseas - is a very youthful population. At the 1981 Census 47.6 per cent of the second generation were aged les than 20 years compared with 33.7 per cent of the total population. In respect to specific ethnic groups there is considerable variation in their age structures - largely an echo effect of the phasing of the major periods of immigration of the respective groups.

There is a number of differences in terms of socio-economic indicators between the first and second generations. Very high proportions of some second generation groups are still at school. While the stereotype of Southern European immigrants having less formal education than the Australian-born has validity, it most definitely does not apply to the second generation. A similar pattern prevails for the Middle Eastern groups. There has been a high degree of upward mobility among several of the Southern European groups with the proportions of the second generation going on to higher education being not only much greater than was the case among first generation populations, but also higher than the Australian average. This pattern of upward mobility between generations is also evident in terms of occupation status for most groups. It is, however, not evenly distributed across groups and it is especially marked among groups whose first generation tended to move into the lower status, manual occupations upon their arrival in Australia.

The most distinctive ethnic group in the Australian population is the Aboriginal, which numbered one per cent of the national population at the 1981 Census. One of the major differences between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations is the age-structure of the two groups. The Aboriginal population is young, with 41 per cent aged less than 15 years and only 4 per cent aged 60 years and over. It has a totally different demography to the non-Aboriginal population. Workforce participation rates show much greater levels of unemployment and where Aboriginals are employed they are disproportionately concentrated in lower-status types of jobs. Few aspects of Aboriginal demography have undergone as rapid a change as their distribution. Over the last two decades there has been a large rural to urban migration of Aboriginals. Moreover, as Gale (1972, 1981) points out, once in the cities inmigrant Aboriginals have been forced to undergo greater social change than most non-Aboriginal new- comers from other parts of Australia. Although much of the motivation for migration to major urban centres has been found to be a response to rural poverty and unemployment, studies tend to indicate that high levels of unemployment, deprivation and welfare dependence also occur in the city, and that migration often does not ameliorate the social and economic problems at the places of origin which originally initiated the migration (Burnley and Routh, 1984).

160

The Australian Workforce

This summary is not an economic analysis but a consideration of the ways changes in the composition of the Australian population are influencing the Australian labour force. The major changes in participation rates since 1966 have been among married women. Whereas in 1966 only 29 per cent of married women were in the labour force, this had increased to 42.6 per cent by 1983. For women in different family situations there are significant differences in the labour force participation rates.

There was a greater contribution of females than males to the growth of the labour force between 1966 and 1983, with the steepest increase being that of women in part-time employment. The overall growth of part-time employment over the 1966-83 period was more than lO0 per cent compared with only 18.3 per cent growth in full-time employment. There was an actual decrease in the number of males in full-time employment in spite of the fact that the total number of males in the workforce continued to increase. There have also been some significant recent shifts in labour force participation rates at particular ages. Between 1976 and 1981 there was increased participation at younger ages, but decreased participation among older workers, especially among males in the 60-64 age group.

Unemployment falls disproportionately upon particular groups, namely women, younger people and, in the early 1980s, older workers. Unemployment rates also vary by family type; the highest rates are for single mothers, and for recently-arrived immigrants and Aboriginals. Unemployment rates also vary by area: wider variations in average unemployment levels exist between metropolitan areas than for States.

The spatial distribution of employment, like unemployment, has changed over time. In the main sectors of employment decline - manufacturing and construction - the brunt of the loss was recorded by New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. The main areas of employment growth were tertiary activities, and more than a quarter of the recorded job increase was in Western Australia, and a quarter in New South Wales, with Victoria and Queensland having over a fifth each.

The significant changes that have occurred in the pattern of labour force participation and structure during the last decade have some important policy implications. One is the rapid increase in the number and proportion of adult Australians who are reliant upon government cash benefits as their principal source of income. Secondly, there is still scope for increased participation of women in the workforce, and an improvement in the economy and employment opportunities may see a resumption of the trend to increasing levels of workforce participation among women which was evident before the late 1970s. The recent reduction in the participation rate of older workers has both voluntary and involuntary components, so an upturn in the economy may see an increase in the participation of older workers, raising several issues such as the concept of phased retirement for older workers. Single mothers and older women, many

1 161

of whom cannot fit into existing traditional job structures, continually recur as one of the most underprivileged groups in Australian society. Their position could be improved through planning which could include the encouragement of more flexible work patterns as well as greater provision of access to childcare opportunities.

Ageing of the Australian Population

The population of Australia aged 60 years and over is currently growing at a rate of 2.5 per cent a year and is the fastest growing group in our society. Recent projections suggest that the growth of the aged population is to become even more rapid. A major issue of ageing is the "dependency-ratio". Between the present and 2011 the dependency ratio will undergo little overall change. However, a shift in the age distribution of dependents from the young to the old is going to place a great strain on the tax base.

There are significant interstate differentials in ageing, but nearly two-thirds of Australians aged 65 and over live in New South Wales and Victoria. There is a slight over-concentration of the elderly in the major urban or metropolitan sectors of the States with under-representation of the aged in the rural sector. In non- metropolitan areas the aged are generally found concentrated in particular localities (especially in seaside, riverside and other scenically attractive LGAs and those containing medium-sized country towns). In the central and inner suburbs of metropolitan areas there is a concentration of LGAs with more than 15 per cent of their population aged 65 years and over. Relatively old, well-established coastal suburbs also tend to have high proportions of their population made up of the aged. Although the proportion of the elderly in an area is important, it is their actual numbers and how they are distributed between and within areas that is of concern to those assessing the demand for services for the aged.

The number of older people in an area can increase over time through two processes - in-migration from other areas, and "ageing in place". Although levels of mobility among the older population, especially that among those leaving the workforce upon retirement, may have risen in recent years, the dominant demographic process is the ageing of longstanding residents.

A crucial element in the degree of well-being felt by older people is the nature of their living arrangements and the family context within which they live. The majority of older men are living as part of a married couple, and therefore have a spouse to care for them, whereas many older women are widowed. In addition, nearly a tenth of women aged over 70 - over 50,000 individuals - have never been married. The policy implications are clear - there is a large minority of older women (and some older men) who not only do not have a spouse to call upon for assistance and companionship during old age, but also have no children or grandchildren.

From the 1981 Census it is evident that the proportions of the total population of particular ages living in non-private dwellings

162

is highest among the oldest age groups, so that nearly a fifth of persons aged 75 years and over were in some form of non-private dwelling: nursing homes, hospitals, hostels, and so on.

An ABS survey of Australian families in 1982 indicated that older persons were also prominent among people living alone, with 63 per cent of women and 32 per cent of males being over 60 years of age. This is partly because older people are tending to stay in independent separate households much longer, even after the death of a spouse, than was previously the case.

Although there is a lack of accurate data, those available confirm that, as elsewhere, the health needs of older persons and their utilization of services are greater than those of other age groups of the population. In 1981 there were over a million older Australians with chronic conditions - 207,400 with conditions which confined them to bed or to the home. With the doubling of the population aged 75+ that appears certain to occur within the next three decades, the pressure on health costs is going to be great.

Conclusion

The 1981 Census Project has produced a large amount of material which has been circulated widely. The response to the project has demonstrated that there is a growing recognition of the utility of demographic analysis in planning a wide range of service provisions and in policy formulation. Thorough and informed analysis of census and other sources of population information can be of major assistance in early detection of emerging trends and problems, developing planning strategies to cope with those problems and in documenting submissions and proposals to be submitted to funding bodies and agencies.

In an era of contracting availability of resources, it is critical that decision-making is informed by a comprehensive knowledge of the changing composition and size of local, regional, State and national populations. In Australia we have too little analysis of population trends, and too much of what is done is of an ad hoc and repetitive nature. Governments at all levels are increasingly requiring projections of future population trends and these can only be satisfactorily developed if they are based on a sound and informed understanding of the dynamics of the contemporary population.

163

REFERENCES

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS (1985) Deaths Australia 1983. Catalogue No.3302.0. Canberra.

BURNLEY, I.H. and N. ROL~H (1984) Aboriginal Migration to Sydney. School of Geography, University of New South Wales.

GALE, F. (1972) Urban AborigiPes. Australian National University Press, Canberra.

GALE, F. (1981) "Adjustment of migrants in cities: Aborigines in Adelaide, Australia. In G.W. JONES and H.V. RICHTER (eds), Population Mobility and Development: 283-304. Australian National University Development Studies Centre, Canberra.

HUGO, G.J. (1983) "Interstate migration to Australia 1976-1981". National Institute of Labour Studies Working papers (50). Flinders University of South Australia~

HUGO, G.J. (1983) "Population change in Australian urban and rural areas". National Institute of Labour Studies Working Papers (51). Flinders University of South Australia.

HUGO, G.J. (1983) "Changing distribution and age structure of birth- place groups in Australia, 1976-1981". National Institute of Labour Studies Workin ~ Papers (54). Flinders University of South Australia.

HUGO, G.J. (1983) "Changing family household structure and character- istics of households in Australia". National Institute of Labour Studie s Working Papers (58). Flinders University of South Australia.

HUGO, G.J. (1984) "Some demographic aspects of the Australian work- force in the early 1980s". National Institute of Labour Studies Working Papers (70). Flinders University of South Australia.

HUGO, G.J. (1984) "Patterns of components of regional population change 1976-1981". National Institute of Labour Studies. Flinders University of South Australia.

HUGO, G.J. and D.R. WOOD (1983) "Recent fertility trends and differentials in Australia". National Institute of Labour Studies Working Papers (57). Flinders University of South Australia.

HUGO G.J. and D.R. WOOD (1984) "Ageing of the Australian population: changing distribution and characteristics of the aged population". NationaiInstituteof L,a,,bour Studies Working papers (63). Flinders University of South Australia.

HUGO, G.J. and D.R. WOOD (1984) "Distribution and age structure of the Australian born with overseas born parents". National Institute of Labour Studies Working PaPers (69). Flinders University of South Australia.

164

NATIONAL POPULATION INQUIRY (1975) (2 volumes). A.G.P.S., Canberra.

Population and Australia

PRYOR, R.J. (1977) "Preferences versus policies? The politics of population distribution in Australia". Australian and New Zealand Journal of Sociolog ~, 13 (i): 23-8.

PRYOR, R.J. (1978) "Population redistribution policies in developed countries and the case of Australia". I.G.U. Commission on Population Geography Symposium, Oulu, Finland.

WOOD, D.R. and G.J. HUGO (1983) "Recent mortality trends in Australia". National ~ !nstitute of Labour Studies Working Papers (55). Flinders University of South Australia.

165

ANNEX

Working papers produced as part of the 1981 Census project for the Population Branch of the Department of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs.

Interstate Migration in Australia 1976-1981 by G.J. Hugo, 68 pages (NILS Working Paper No.50).

Recent Mortality Trends in Australia by D. Wood and G.J. Hugo, ii0 pages (NILS Working Paper No.55).

Patterns and Components of Regional Popu!ation Change 1976-1981 by G.J. Hugo

Recent Fertility Trends and Differentia!s in Australia by G.J. Hugo and D. Wood, 99 pages (NILS Working Paper No.57).

Changing Distribution and Age Structure of Birthplace Groups in Australia 1976-1981 by G.J. Hugo, 85 pages (NILS Working Paper No.54).

Distribution and Age Structure of the Australian Born with Overseas Born Parents by D. Wood and G.J. Hugo, 41 pages (NILS Working Paper No.69)o

Population Change in Urban and Rural Areas 1976-1981 by G.J. Hugo, 65 pages (NILS Working Paper No.51).

Ageing of the Australia p Population: Changing Distribution and Characteristics of the Aged Popu!ation by G.J. Hugo and D. Wood, 193 pages (NILS Working Paper No.63).

The Changing Australian Family: Structure and Characteristics of Households and Families in Australia at the 198i Census by G.J. Hugo, 75 pages (NILS Working Paper No.56).

Some Demographic Aspects of the Australian Workforce in the Ear!y 1980s by G.J. Hugo.

166