Thayer Multilateral Institutions and Regionalism in the Asia-Pacific Region

8/14/2019 Thayer Multilateral Institutions and Regionalism in the Asia-Pacific Region

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Multilateral Institutions and

the Emergence of IncipientRegionalism

Professor Carl Thayer

Presentation to

Centre for Defence and Strategic StudiesAustralian Defence College

March 13, 2009


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Learning Objectives

1. Analyse the emergence of multilateral

institutions and groupings with aregional security role.

2. Assess the effectiveness of regional

institutions in contributing to agreater sense of security.


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Part I

Analyse the emergence of multilateral

institutions and groupings with aregional security role.


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Longevity in Years (2009)

Established

ASEAN (42)

FPDA (38) APEC (20)

CSCAP (16)

ARF (15) ASEM (13)

SCO (13)*

Incipient

Shangri-La Dialogue (7)

Six Party Talks (6)

East Asia Summit (4)


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1. Association of South East

Asian Nations (ASEAN)

To accelerate the economic growth, social

progress and cultural development

To promote regional peace and stability

Bangkok Declaration, August 8, 1967

Founding members:

Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and

Thailand (ASEAN 5)


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Phases of Development

1. 1967-75 consultation and consensus

2. 1976-91 ASEAN norms, diplomatic

community3. 1992-1997 institutionalisation and

membership expansion

4. 1997-2002 multiple crises & recovery5. 2003 towards an ASEAN community


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ASEAN Decision-Making

Annual Ministerial Meeting (AMM)

Foreign ministers

Post-Ministerial Conference (PMC)

Dialogue partners

Meetings of other ministers

Defence (2006)

ASEAN Summit Meetings


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ASEANs Dialogue Partners

Australia (1974)

New Zealand (1975)

EU (1977) Japan (1977)

Canada (1977)

United States (1977)

UNDP (1977)

South Korea (1991)

India (1996) China (1996)

Russia (1996)

Pakistan (1997)*

*sectoral partner


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2. Five Power Defence

Arrangements (FPDA) United Kingdom withdrawal east of Suez

defence of Malaysia and Singapore indivisible

FPDA formed 1971

consultative body

annual joint training exercises

Integrated Air Defence System (IADS)

Confidence building measure between Malaysia

and Singapore


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3. Asia Pacific

Economic Cooperation (APEC)


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Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University,

Australia.

University of Toronto-York University Joint Center for Asia Pacific Studies,

Canada.

Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia.

Japan Institute of International Affairs, Japan.

The Seoul Forum for International Affairs, Republic of Korea.

Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Malaysia.

Institute for Strategic and Development Studies, Philippines.

Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies (formerly Singapore Institute of

International Affairs), Sinagpore.

Institute for Security and International Studies, Thailand.

Pacific Forum/CSIS, United States of America.

4. Council for Security

Cooperation in the AsiaPacific


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5. ASEAN Regional Forum

First ARF Chairman's Statement (1994):

to foster constructive dialogue andconsultation on political and security issuesof common interest and concern; and

to make significant contributions to effortstowards confidence-building and preventivediplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region.


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ARF-2: Chairmans Statement

The approach shall be evolutionary, taking placein three broad stages, namely

the promotion of confidence building,

development of preventive diplomacy and

elaboration of approaches to conflicts.

The ARF process is now at Stage I, and shall

continue to discuss means of implementingconfidence building.

Stage II, particularly where the subject matteroverlap, can proceed in tandem with Stage I.


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Decision-Making

Decisions of the ARF shall be made throughconsensus after careful and extensiveconsultations among all participants.

no voting

Move at a pace comfortable to all ARF members

Chairman of ARF is Chairman of the ASEAN

Standing Committee Chairmans Statement after annual meeting

Non-binding


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Membership Expansion (27)

Brunei China Myanmar

Indonesia European Union Cambodia

Malaysia Japan Mongolia

Philippines South Korea North Korea

Singapore New Zealand India

Thailand PNG Pakistan

Vietnam Russia Timor-Leste

Australia United States Bangladesh

Canada Laos Sri Lanka


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CBM and PD Overlap Agreed definition of Preventive Diplomacy

Four CBM/PD measures overlap:

the enhanced role of the ARF Chair

the ARF Registers of Experts/EminentPersons,

theAnnual Security Outlookand voluntary background briefing on regional

security issues


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6. Asia Europe Meeting - ASEM

Inaugural Summit March 1996

26 founding members

Ministerial meetings annually

Summits every two years

Coordinators two from each side Enlargement to 45 members

Dialogue platform


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7. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

1996 Shanghai Five

China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan,

Tajikistan

2001 SCO (Shanghai Five plus Uzbekistan)

Address security problems along borders

Highly structured inter-governmental

organisation


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Central Asia


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SCO Councils


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8. Shangri-La Dialogue

Initiated by International Institute of StrategicStudies (IISS) in 2002

Participation by defence ministers from 15countries plus 6 deputy ministers or senior officials

IISS: the best available vehicle in the Asia-

Pacific region for developing and chanellingastute and effective public policy on defenceand security.


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Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, China, France, Germany,

India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand,

Pakistan, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka,

Thailand, Timor Leste, UK, US, Vietnam


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9. Six Party Talks

North Korea withdraws from Non-

Proliferation Treaty (2003)

Focus: peaceful resolution of nuclear

question on Korean peninsula

Six parties: North and South Korea, China,

Japan, Russian Federation and the U.S.

Six rounds of talks (2003-07)


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10. East Asia Summit

1st Summit held in Kuala Lumpur, December 14,2005

ASEAN members + China, Japan, South Korea,Australia, New Zealand, India

Russia has applied for membership and as of 2005,attends on observer status.

Promote peace, stability and economic prosperity

in East Asia

ASEAN driving force

4th summit set for Thailand 10-12 April 2009


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Part II

Assess the effectiveness of regionalinstitutions in contributing to agreater sense of security.


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1. ASEAN

Bangkok Declaration 1967

Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality 1971

Declaration of ASEAN Concord I 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation 1976

South East Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone 1998

Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China

Sea 2001 Declaration of ASEAN Concord II 2003


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ASEAN Security Focus

Non-traditional security issues

Counter-terrorism

Myanmar and non-intervention

ASEAN Defence Ministers (2006) ASEAN Charter

New structure of decision-making:ASEAN Coordinating Council, ASEANCommunity Councils, ASEAN SectoralMinisterial Bodies [Defence] andASEAN Secretary General with 4deputies.


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ASEAN Community 2020

Three pillars:

ASEAN Security Community

ASEAN Economic Community

ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community

2015


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2. FPDA

Integrated Area Defence System (2000)

Expanding role in addressing asymmetric

threats (2003) Facilitates cooperation in other areas

Malaysia in East Timor (currently)

Singapore and NZ in Afghanistan

Only effective multilateral military structurewith an operational dimension in SoutheastAsia.


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3. Asia Pacific

Economic Cooperation

APECCounter-

TerrorismTask Force

SecureTrade in theAPEC Region(STAR)


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4.

CSCAP and the ARF

Track 1 activities in first half of year

Track 2 activities in second half of year

ARF Chair and CSCAP

Informal to formal relationship? Possible editor of annualAsia Pacific Security

Outlook


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CSCAP Working Groups

1. Comprehensive and CooperativeSecurity

2. Confidence and Security BuildingMeasures

3. Maritime Cooperation

4. North Pacific

5. Transnational Crime


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CSCAP Memoranda

No.1 The Security of the Asia Pacific Region

No.2 Asia Pacific Confidence and Security Building Measures

No.3 The Concepts of Comprehensive Security and CooperativeSecurity

No.4 Guidelines for Regional Maritime Cooperation

No.5 Cooperation for Law and Order at Sea

No. 6 Practice of Law in the Asia PacificNo. 7 Relationship Between Terrorism and Transnational

Crimes


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5. ASEAN Regional Forum

Work Program on Security Issues ASEAN and Non-ASEAN co-chair

Annual renewal of mandate

1995-97 ISM on SAR

1995-97 ISM on PKO

1995-99 ISM on Disaster Relief

2005 resumed 1995- ISG on CBMs

2002- ISM on Counter Terrorism & Trans-National Crime


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ARF Achievements

Agreed principles for dialogue and

cooperation

consensus, non-interference, pacecomfortable to all

Habits of dialogue and consultations on

political and security issuesWillingness of participants to discuss a

wide range of security issues multilaterally


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ARF Achievements

Transparency through exchange of

information on defence policy andpublication of white papers

Networking developed among national-

security, defence and military officials

Continuing CBMs as foundation


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ARF Achievements

Movement towards preventive diplomacyEnhanced role of ARF Chair

interaction with other regional andinternational organisations

ASEAN Secretariat to assist - ARF Unit

List of ARF Experts and Eminent PersonsSecurity Policy Conference (2004)


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ARF Achievements

Priority cooperation in fight against

international terrorism and transnational

crime But stalled at CBM-Preventive

Diplomacy stage

Role in conflict resolution unlikely North Korea nuclear issues


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1 Political

fight against terrorism, the management of migratory

flows, human rights, global environment challenges,

and the impact of globalisation

2 Economic and Financial

Investment, financial and social policy reform

3 Cultural and Intellectual

Cooperation in higher education

6. ASEM Three

Pillars


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7. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

Secretariat

HQ Beijing with Secretary General

Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure (2004)

Focus on terrorist, separatist, extremist threats

Observers and Guests

Mongolia, India, Iran, Pakistan; ASEAN,

Afghanistan, Commonwealth of Independent

States


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8. Shangri-La Dialogue

Chiefs of Defence Staff (2003) National Security Advisors and Permanent Under

Secretaries for Defence (2004-05) + intelligence and

police Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia,

Canada, China, France, Germany, India,Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia,Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan,

Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Sri Lanka,Thailand, Timor-Leste, United Kingdom, UnitedStates, and Vietnam (N = 27)


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9. Six Party Talks

Our hope is that in North-East Asia we can create

the kind of community that we have already seen

created in South-East Asia

China, Japan, the Koreas and Russia should form a

new mechanism similar to the Association of

South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to help cope

with regional political problems Christopher Hill, US Assistant Secretary of State for

East Asia and Pacific Affairs, February 29, 2008


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10. East Asia Summit

Build confidence by exchange of views onissues of strategic importance to the region

poverty eradication, energy security, education,finance. Avian Influenza, natural disastermitigation, Doha Development Agenda,economic development and regional

integration, interfaith initiatives,denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,

U.S. frozen out


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Conclusion

No single security architecture [multilateral

institution] effectively covers the Asia-Pacific

Region

Multiple overlapping architectures deal with

hard and soft security challenges

The ASEAN Way embedded in ARF andEAS

No enforcement or compliance structures


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Conclusion

Spread of cooperative security norms

Emergence of ad hoc institutions

Six Party TalksShangri-la Dialogue

East Asia Summit

Growing interdependence across the Asia-Pacific RegionTsunami Relief (2004-05)


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Multilateral Institutions

and the Emergence ofIncipient Regionalism

Questions

Documents

Thayer Multilateral Institutions and Regionalism in the Asia-Pacific Region