View
228
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Thailand’s Medium Term Expenditure
Framework(MTEF)
The Bureau of the Budget Office of Prime MinisterRoyal Thai Government
SPBBS : The Principle
• Top-down policy driven
• Strategic allocation
• Fiscal discipline
• Effective budgeting
• People oriented
• Deconcentration
• Management flexibility
• Good governance
• Financial disclosure
Policy aspects Management aspects
Good Governance
Elements of SPBBS
Result oriented Strategic Target Ministry Target Output and KPI
Devolution
Medium Term Expenditure Framework - MTEF
Comprehensiveness
Monitoring and Evaluation
Medium TermExpenditure Framework (MTEF)cover both top down and bottom up
estimates:
Macro fiscal projection – to establish budget ceiling based on resources (such as taxes, fiscal policy) and constraints (such as debt, and contingent liabilities), and stating all economic assumptions
Micro baseline projection – to establish baseline expenditures based on existing policies at agency level
Prudent Reconciliation process of top-down and bottom-up projections
MTEF Process (simplified)
5
New sectoral demand for
t+3 (priority/cost
)
Updated cost estimate of
existing policy/program
Sectoral Budget
Preparation
Macro-economic forecastin
g
Fiscal target
Total expenditure setting for multi-
years
Sectoral ceiling
setting for multi-years
Annual budget
formulation
Assumptions
Results from the Processing Modules
Expenditure & Revenue
Stock of Public Debt
Macro- Framework
Endogenous Inputs
Fiscal Sustainability Assessments
Fiscal Sustainability
Macro Economic Assumption
Source : Bureau of the Budget, Bank of Thailand, NESDB
Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Real GDP growth (%pa)
7.0 – 8.0
4.0 – 5.0
4.0 – 5.0
4.0 – 5.0
4.0 – 5.0
Inflation Rate growth (%pa)
3.0 – 4.0
2.5 – 3.5
2.5 – 3.5
2.5 – 3.5
2.5 – 3.5
Import growth (%pa)
27.72 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
Time deposit rate (%)
0.72 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78
Time deposit growth (%pa)
-9.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Minimum loan rate (%)
5.93 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
Loan on private sector (%pa)
6.70 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Bureau of The Budget’s strategy measurement
Minimum Investment
Subsidy
External Borrowing
Internal Borrowing
Personnal Expenditure
Remaining Budgets(Fiscal Space)
Loss fromFIDF
SOEs
Government External
BorrowingProject/Program
Loan
Revolving FundLocal Authority
Fiscal Sustainability F
ramew
ork
To be accordance with human
power improvement
Commitment Expenditure
Education Public health
Investment
Social network
Tourism
Infrastructure
The measurement
of budget allocation is essential
Fiscal Sustainability Framework
กู้��ใน
เงิ�นอุดหนน
เงิ�นเด อุน/ค่�าใช้�จ่�ายบุค่ลากู้ร
กู้ารลงิทุนขั้��นต่ำ��า
Remaining Budgets
กู้��ใน
เงิ�นอุดหนน
เงิ�นเด อุน/ค่�าใช้�จ่�ายบุค่ลากู้ร
กู้ารลงิทุนขั้��นต่ำ��า
Remaining Budgets
กู้��ใน
เงิ�นอุดหนน
เงิ�นเด อุน/ค่�าใช้�จ่�ายบุค่ลากู้ร
กู้ารลงิทุนขั้��นต่ำ��า
Remaining Budgets
External
Borrowing
Internal Borrowi
ng
Subsidy and Funds
Personnel Expenditure
Minimum Investment
Remaining Budgets
Public Debt / GDP < 60%
Debt Service / Budget < 15%
Balance Budget
Key FiguresFiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014
Revenue Projection Unit : Millions of Baht
On Budget Basis 1,793,569 1,934,549 2,100,942 2,281,075Expenditure Projection Unit : Millions of Baht
Expenditure 1,546,305 1,383,839 1,646,737 1,640,1681.Current Expenditure 1,153,243 1,170,260 1,199,053 1,219,469
(% of total) 72% 66% 62% 57%1.1 Personal Exp. 502,658 532,518 564,169 597,7191.2 Operating Exp. 189,292 189,292 189,292 189,2921.3 Interest Payment 118,171 112,718 101,378 75,1581.4 Commitment Exp. 31,823 9,158 3,023 5951.5 Revolving Fund 146,506 151,812 156,816 161,8781.6 Transfer and Subsidy 164,793 174,763 184,375 194,826
2. Capital Expenditure 236,905 186,294 183,729 194,317(% of total) 15% 11% 9% 9%
2.1 Subsidy Local Authority 141,436 158,820 174,659 192,5312.2 Commitment Exp. 95,469 27,473 9,070 1,786
3.Principle Expenditure 156,157 27,285 263,955 226,382(% of total) 10% 2% 14% 11%
Fiscal Space* 247,264 550,710 454,205 640,907
TAX
Indirect Tax
Direct Tax
PIT
PTT
EXCISE
VAT
Import Duty
SBT
CIT
Revenue Module
Domestic
Borrowing
Estimation
Projection
SOEs domestic debt
Govt domestic debt
Total domestic debt
Domestic Borrowings
External Borrowing
Sensitivity Analysis on Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Query Function
Exchange Rate Converting
External Borrowings
Assume Disbursement Patterns : ADiPs 22 branch
External Borrowings
สาขั้าเกู้ษต่ำรกู้รรม
20%
0%0%0%
10%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
ปี�ที่�� 1 ปี�ที่�� 3 ปี�ที่�� 5 ปี�ที่�� 7 ปี�ที่�� 9
สาขั้าสถาบุ�นกู้ารเงิ�นและประกู้�นภั�ย
25%
0%0%0%
25%25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
ปี�ที่�� 1 ปี�ที่�� 3 ปี�ที่�� 5 ปี�ที่�� 7 ปี�ที่�� 9
สาขั้ากู้ารจ่�ดสรรทุร�พยากู้รน��า
20%
30%
10%
0% 0% 0%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
ปี�ที่�� 1 ปี�ที่�� 3 ปี�ที่�� 5 ปี�ที่�� 7 ปี�ที่�� 9
สาขั้าพล�งิงิาน
20%
30%
10%
0% 0% 0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
ปี�ที่�� 1 ปี�ที่�� 3 ปี�ที่�� 5 ปี�ที่�� 7 ปี�ที่�� 9
สาขั้าพ�ฒนาช้นบุทุ
20%
30%
10%
0% 0% 0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
ปี�ที่�� 1 ปี�ที่�� 3 ปี�ที่�� 5 ปี�ที่�� 7 ปี�ที่�� 9
สาขั้าทุ(�อุย��อุาศั�ยและกู้ารพ�ฒนาเม อุงิ
25%
0%0%5%
10%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
ปี�ที่�� 1 ปี�ที่�� 3 ปี�ที่�� 5 ปี�ที่�� 7 ปี�ที่�� 9
สาขั้าวิ�ทุยาศัาสต่ำร+และเทุค่โนโลย(
15%
0%
10%15%
5% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
ปี�ที่�� 1 ปี�ที่�� 3 ปี�ที่�� 5 ปี�ที่�� 7 ปี�ที่�� 9
สาขั้าขั้นส�งิทุางิอุากู้าศั
20%
0%0%0%
25%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
ปี�ที่�� 1 ปี�ที่�� 3 ปี�ที่�� 5 ปี�ที่�� 7 ปี�ที่�� 9
สาขั้ากู้ารศั-กู้ษาและกู้ารฝึ/กู้อุบุรม
10%
25%
15%
0% 0% 0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
ปี�ที่�� 1 ปี�ที่�� 3 ปี�ที่�� 5 ปี�ที่�� 7 ปี�ที่�� 9
สาขั้าขั้นส�งิทุางิบุกู้
20%
0%0%0%
10%
30%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
ปี�ที่�� 1 ปี�ที่�� 3 ปี�ที่�� 5 ปี�ที่�� 7 ปี�ที่�� 9
Data-baseExternal Debt
Disbursement Interest Payment Principle Payment
Health fundStudent
Loan
Revolving Fund
Revolving Funds
Universal Health Care
Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014
Budget Allocation for Health Care Policy
122,158
130,530
139,429
148,883
Deducted at Government Procurement
34,658 36,217 37,847 39,550
1) Expenditure on Salaries of government Officers, affiliated with the Ministry of Public Health
32,921 34,403 35,951 37,568
2) Expenditure on Salaries of government Officers, not affiliated with the Ministry of Public Health
1,679 1,754 1,833 1,916
3) Others ๆ 118 123 128 134
Budget Allocation for Revolving fund for Health Care
87,500 94,313 101,582
109,332
FundsFunds 2011 2012 2013 2014
1 Revolving Fund for Health Care 87,500.16 94,312.53
101,581.
73
109,332.
25
2 Student Loans Fund 25,407.45 23,901.14
21,636.6
0
18,947.8
9
3 Income Contingent Loan Fund 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4 Fund for Farmer Rehabilitation and Development 2,499.10 2,499.10
2,499.10
2,499.10
5 Fund for Small and Medium Enterprises Promotion 615.00 615.00
615.00
615.00
6 Fund for Promotion of Social Security 30.00
30.00
30.00
30.00
7 Fund for National Sports Development 250.00
250.00
250.00
250.00
8 Fund for Revitalization of the Disabled 50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00
9 Fund for Senior Citizens 100.00 100.00
100.00
100.00
10 Land Readjustment Fund 60.00 60.00
60.00
60.00
11 Fund for Children Protection 60.00 60.00
60.00
60.00
12Fund for Restructuring of Agricultural Production to Improve Competitiveness
100.00 100.00
100.00
100.00
13 Fund for Political Party Development 200.00
200.00
200.00
200.00
14 Fund for Criminal Investigation 500.00 500.00 500.00
500.00
15 Other Funds 17,336.00 17,336.00
17,336.0
0
17,336.0
0
Local Authorities
Revenue Sharing
Subsidy from the Budget
Gov’t Revenue
L/A Rev Previously 25.2%
Government Collected
Self Collected
Local Authority Revenues
Type of Revenues 2011 2012 2013 2014
Revenue collected by Local Administrative Organization
39,833.59 43,360.15 47,201.05 51,384.
32
Revenue from Local Taxes collected by Government
148,484.76
157,725.38
167,779.16
178,717.68
Revenue sharing from government Taxes
80,982.21 93,526.31
107,442.80
122,892.69
Revenue from Subsidies and duties transfer
194,674.34
215,829.45
239,524.61
266,085.22
Total of Local revenues 463,974.89
510,441.29
561,947.61
619,079.92
Commitment Budget
and outyears
Personnel Expenditure
2011 2012 2013 2014
Personnel Expenditure 502,658
532,518
564,169
597,719
- Wage and Salary 484,611
513,388
543,891
576,224
- Wage for temporally 1,515 1,606 1,702 1,804
- Benefit for government employee 16,532 17,524 18,576 19,690
Lessons Learned
1. To forecast the outyear budget (year 2-4) need both unit cost and output: lacking of quantitative indicators make the output forecast a difficult task.
2. Understanding of government agencies3. The rolling MTEF make the forecast less
important. 4. Dependence on external economy5. Political Stability