Thailand’s emerging eco-car industry – forecasts to … · Page v Contents Chapter 7 Manufacturer eco-car programmes ... (THB bn, No. of cars and %).....19 Table 7: Thai vehicle

Thailand’s emerging eco-carindustry – forecasts to 2016

2008 edition

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Thailand’s emerging eco-car industry – forecasts to 2016 2008 edition

By Tony Pugliese, www.asiamotorbusiness.com

September 2008

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Page iv Contents

Contents

Single-user licence edition............................................................................................................. ii Copyright statement .................................................................................................................. ii Incredible ROI for your budget – single and multi-user licences............................................... ii just-auto.com membership........................................................................................................iii

Contents.......................................................................................................................................... iv

List of tables ................................................................................................................................... vi

Executive summary ........................................................................................................................ 1 New automotive niche being created........................................................................................ 1 Domestic demand for eco-cars expected to be strong ............................................................. 1 825,000 in new car capacity approved so far ........................................................................... 2 Thai vehicle production forecast at over 2.1m by 2016 ............................................................ 2

Chapter 1 Domestic vehicle market .............................................................................................. 3 Market growth after two years of decline .................................................................................. 3 Growth led by E20-compatible cars .......................................................................................... 3 Pick-up share in decline............................................................................................................ 4 Eco-cars to drive sales from 2009 ............................................................................................ 5 Toyota dominates the Thai market ........................................................................................... 5

Chapter 2 Vehicle production and exports................................................................................... 7 Ten-fold increase in output since Asia crisis............................................................................. 7 World-class pick-up truck industry ............................................................................................ 7 Shortage of skilled workers anticipated .................................................................................... 9

Chapter 3 Thai investment policies............................................................................................. 10 Ministry of Industry’s Board of Investment .............................................................................. 10

Chapter 4 Automotive investment programmes........................................................................ 11 Success with pick-up trucks.................................................................................................... 11 Large motorcycle sector.......................................................................................................... 11

Chapter 5 Eco-car incentives and standards ............................................................................. 13 Eco-car technical standards and tax incentives...................................................................... 13 Eco-car programme investment requirements........................................................................ 13 Technical specifications .......................................................................................................... 14

Chapter 6 Biofuel incentives........................................................................................................ 15 Biofuel subsidies ..................................................................................................................... 15 Incentives extended to E85..................................................................................................... 16 Fuel crops encouraged ........................................................................................................... 16


Page v Contents

Chapter 7 Manufacturer eco-car programmes ........................................................................... 18Companies pledge 825,000 units in new capacity.................................................................. 18 Tata could struggle to meet targets ........................................................................................ 18 VW could lift eco-car capacity to over 950,000 units .............................................................. 19 Honda eco-car production from end-2008 .............................................................................. 19 Asian Honda Motor Co Ltd...................................................................................................... 20 Siam Nissan Automobile Assembly Co Ltd............................................................................. 21 Auto Alliance (Thailand) Co Ltd .............................................................................................. 21 Suzuki Motor Corporation (Japan) .......................................................................................... 22 Mitsubishi Motors (Thailand) Co Ltd ....................................................................................... 23 Tata Motors Ltd ....................................................................................................................... 23 Toyota Motor (Thailand) Co Ltd .............................................................................................. 24 Volkswagen AG....................................................................................................................... 24

Chapter 8 Outlook for Thai vehicle production.......................................................................... 26 Competition from eco-cars from 2009..................................................................................... 26 Pick-up truck output under pressure ....................................................................................... 26 Eco-car production to pass 700,000 units by 2015................................................................. 27 Volkswagen may help lift Thai output further .......................................................................... 27

Chapter 9 Supply-chain investment ............................................................................................ 29 Steel sector investments ......................................................................................................... 29 Steel demand set to soar ........................................................................................................ 29 New incentives announced ..................................................................................................... 29 Components sector ................................................................................................................. 30


Page vi List of tables

List of tables

Table 1: Thai domestic vehicle sales by type, 2006-2008 (no. of vehicles)...................................... 4

Table 2: Thai vehicle sales by brand, 2005-2008 (no. of vehicles) ................................................... 6

Table 3: Vehicle production in Thailand by type, 2005-2008 (no. of vehicles).................................. 8

Table 4: Thai CBU vehicle exports, 2000-2008 (no. of vehicles) ...................................................... 9

Table 5: Excise tax rates on passenger cars by type and fuel compatibility, January 2008 (%) .... 15

Table 6: Current and proposed eco-car programmes (THB bn, No. of cars and %)....................... 19

Table 7: Thai vehicle production forecasts by type, 2007-2016 (‘000s).......................................... 27

Table 8: Thai eco-car production forecasts by manufacturer, 2008-2016 (‘000s)........................... 28


Page 1 Executive summary

Executive summary

New automotive niche being created

The Thai government in 2007 announced a package of incentives designed to

stimulate a new phase of growth in the country’s automotive industry. Through

the Ministry of Industry’s Board of Investment (BOI), the Government is

offering up to eight years’ corporate tax breaks and duty-free import of related

machinery and equipment to companies investing in the manufacture of small

cars. The BOI set out the minimum investment requirements and specifications

for the car, dubbed “eco-car” due to its low fuel consumption and emissions

specifications.

The BOI hopes to repeat the success it had in developing a globally-

competitive one-tonne pick-up truck industry in creating a new automotive

product niche. By specifying the latest European standards in terms of fuel

consumption, emissions and crash-testing, the BOI hopes to secure access for

its eco-cars to the world’s largest regional small-car market. Most eco-cars

produced in Thailand are expected to be sold in Asia and Australia, however.

Domestic demand for eco-cars expected to be strong

Domestic sales are expected to account for a significant proportion of output.

The BOI expects domestic demand for small, fuel-efficient cars in the US$xx-

xxxxxx price-range to be significant. Leading sub-compact cars currently

available in the Thai market, the Honda Fit and Toyota Yaris, have minimum

retail prices of US$xxxxxx and US$xxxxxx respectively.

In tandem with the eco-car programme, the BOI in 2007 announced a new

package of incentives for prospective manufacturers of large motorcycles

(above xxxcc) – a segment that has yet to be developed significantly in

Southeast Asia. The BOI is also making significant efforts to attract investment

in support industries, such as in up-stream steel and other raw materials

production and automotive component manufacture.

The Government has also launched a number of biofuel incentives in 2008

designed to reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. The timing of

these announcements has left vehiclemakers somewhat dismayed, as they


Page 2 Executive summary

came after most companies had already submitted their eco-car investment

proposals.

xxxxxxx in new car capacity approved so far

So far, seven global vehicle manufacturers have been granted permission by

the BOI to carry out their proposed investments in new eco-car manufacturing

plants – each with a capacity of at least xxxxxxx units per year. A total of

xxxxxxx units of new vehicle production capacity have been approved by the

BOI, and an eighth proposal submitted by Volkswagen awaits approval. The

eighth project would bring total new small-car capacity to close to xxxxxxx

units – similar to the country’s total pick-up truck production in 2007.

One of the BOI’s specific requirements for eco-car investments is that actual

annual production must reach xxxxxxx units within five years. On the basis

that all seven of the already approved eco-car programmes do meet these

minimum production stipulations, annual eco-car production would exceed

xxxxxxx units by 2016. Around one-third of output is expected to be sold in

Thailand. The first model, from Honda, is expected to be produced at the end

of 2008.

While global demand for fuel-efficient cars is rising sharply as oil prices

continue to spike, it is conceivable that not all eco-car manufacturers will meet

their production and sales targets. Tata Motors looks the weakest of the group,

with negligible sales volumes across the ASEAN region, including Thailand,

and a poor brand image outside India. All other prospective eco-car

manufacturers have strong global distribution networks and will likely do well.

Thai vehicle production forecast at over xxxm by 2016

Thai vehicle production is forecast to exceed xxxm units by 2016, provided that

most eco-car programmes go according to plan. This would represent a xx%

increase on the xxxm vehicles produced in 2007. Some erosion will occur

between vehicle segments, with conventional small cars coming under

pressure as the lower-cost eco-cars become widely available across

Southeast Asia. Eco-cars are expected to compete closely on price with pick-

up trucks, but any sales trade-off is likely to be limited due to the significant

difference in specifications and end-user requirements.


Page 3 Chapter 1 Domestic vehicle market

Chapter 1 Domestic vehicle market

Market growth after two years of decline

After peaking at an all-time high of over xxxxxxx units in 2005, the Thai

domestic vehicle market experienced two years of decline as economic growth

slowed to around xxx% over the subsequent two years. Political uncertainty

was a key factor affecting domestic sentiment, following the military coup in

September 2006. Significant uncertainty persists despite parliamentary

elections being held in December 2007.

Vehicle sales rose by xx% in the first half of 2008 to over xxxxxxx units, with

strong demand for fuel-efficient passenger cars driving overall sales. The

popularity of pick-up trucks, which typically have engines ranging in size

between xxxxcc and xxxxcc, is in decline – seemingly in direct relation to the

rising cost of fuel.

Imports represent a small part of the market, despite the country’s participation

in regional and bilateral free trade agreements. The Federation of Thai

Industries’ (FTI) Automotive Club expects CBU car imports to reach xxxxx

units this year – or close to x% of the total sales. Most imports are niche

vehicles – either luxury models such as recreational vehicles, luxury and

sports cars, or small cars, according to the association.

Growth led by E20-compatible cars

Since the beginning of 2008 passenger car demand has been boosted by a cut

in excise tax from xx% to xx% on models compatible with ethanol-based E20.

Biofuels, including the diesel-vegetable oil D2, are also a bit cheaper than

conventional fuels – further increasing the attraction of compatible car models.

As more and more E20-compatible models were made available in the

marketplace during the first half of 2008, a significant shift in consumer

demand has taken place.

In the first half of 2008, a total of xxxxxx passenger cars were sold in

Thailand, equivalent to xx% of total vehicle sales. This compares with a xxxx%

share in 2006 and xx% in 2007. Around xxxxxxx of these were E20-

compatible models, according to the Thai Automotive Institute.


Page 7 Chapter 2 Vehicle production and exports

Chapter 2 Vehicle production and exports

Ten-fold increase in output since Asia crisis

Thai vehicle production has staged a strong recovery since falling to a low of

xxxxxxx units at the height of the Asia crisis in 1998. Ten years on, output is

expected to be close to ten times that amount – forecast at around xxxx-xxxxm

units in 2008 by the Thai government, thanks to a sharp increase in domestic

demand and rising exports.

The Government succeeded in helping to steer the automotive industry out of

the Asia crisis thanks to the timely introduction of incentives and legislation,

including a relaxation in foreign ownership regulations. This helped the

industry transform itself into an export-oriented, globally-competitive vehicle

and automotive component manufacturing base. This year, around xx% of

vehicle output is expected to be exported.

World-class pick-up truck industry

Thailand has created the world’s second-largest market for one-ton pick-up

trucks after that of the US, thanks to low excise taxes of x%. This has allowed

the country’s pick-up truck manufacturers and their component suppliers to

develop the economies of scale necessary to compete globally. In the last ten

years, the quality of pick-up trucks has increased dramatically and all pick-up

plants now supply world markets.

Pick-up-based vehicles, including trucks and passenger pick-up vehicles

(PPVs), accounted for just short of xx% of total output last year, or over

xxxxxxx units. Passenger cars made up xx% of output, but this is expected to

rise sharply in the next five years thanks mainly to the Government’s eco-car

programme.


Page 10 Chapter 3 Thai investment policies

Chapter 3 Thai investment policies

Ministry of Industry’s Board of Investment

The Thai government, through the Ministry of Industry’s policy arm – the Board

of Investment – offers incentive programmes to attract investment in sectors

which it regards as having significant potential for growth and, therefore, the

potential to provide significant benefit to the Thai economy.

Projects are approved on a case-by-case basis and tax privileges and micro-

policies have varied significantly over the years. Investment programmes are

awarded different levels of priority and tax incentives depending on scale and

the potential benefits to the Thai economy.

The BOI requires a minimum initial investment of THBxm (US$xxxxxx),

excluding working capital and land purchase costs, for a manufacturing project

to be considered by the BOI. In order to be considered for special tax

privileges, other key requirements need to be met. These include minimum

standards of corporate governance, minimum value added (usually around

xx%), the use of modern production processes, modern/effective machinery

and the meeting of minimum environmental protection standards.

Requirements and incentives differ significantly between investments of up to

THBxxxm (US$xxm) and those above THBxxxm, and vary according to

economic development zone.

Key industries that have been developed in Thailand with the support of the

BOI include:

○ food and food processing;

○ textiles and textile products;

○ electronic products and parts;

○ electrical products and parts;

○ petrochemicals;

○ rubber; and

○ vehicles and equipment.


Page 11 Chapter 4 Automotive investment programmes

Chapter 4 Automotive investment programmes

Success with pick-up trucks

The BOI has been successful in the past in promoting the development of a

world-class one-tonne pick-up truck industry based on incentives and low

domestic taxation to stimulate domestic demand. Today, the Thai one-tonne

pick-up industry and market is second only to that of the US. The country

produced xxxxxxx pick-up-based vehicles in 2007, of which close to xxxxxxx

units were sold domestically.

Large motorcycle sector

At a meeting of the BOI held in October 2007, the Thai government reduced its

investment requirements for prospective manufacturers of large motorcycles,

as it pushes on with its efforts to develop a new two-wheeler industry niche.

The improved offer reflects a lack of response to the previously-announced

programme.

With its revised policy, the BOI has scrapped its minimum annual capacity

requirements of xxxxx units for companies proposing to produce large, four-

stroke motorcycles with engines capacities of xxxcc and over. Restrictions on

foreign ownership have also been lifted completely, instead of the previous

limit of xx%.

Incentives include corporation tax waivers for an amount not exceeding the

total investment value and duty free importation of machinery, regardless of

plant location within Thailand.

To promote motorcycle engine manufacture, starting with the machining of key

parts such as cylinder heads and crankcases, the corporate income tax

holiday has been extended to between three and eight years, depending on

plant location.


Page 13 Chapter 5 Eco-car incentives and standards

Chapter 5 Eco-car incentives and standards

Eco-car technical standards and tax incentives

The Thai government offers vehicle manufacturers that qualify for its eco-car

programme exemption from relevant corporate taxes for eight years, provided

that the amount does not exceed the initial investment, and duty-free

importation of related machinery and manufacturing equipment, regardless of

the plant’s location.

To encourage domestic sales of these vehicles, the excise tax will be set at

xx%, compared with xx% for conventional passenger cars and xx% for cars

compatible with biofuels. The tax rate will be much higher than the x% excise

tax currently applied to pick-up trucks, however.

Eco-car programme investment requirements

To qualify for Thai eco-car tax incentives, a minimum investment of THBxbn

(US$xxxm) must be made within the first five years – excluding the cost of

land and working capital. Investors also must make the following

commitments:

○ a minimum annual production level of xxxxxxx vehicles within five

years.

○ local assembly of engines; and

○ local production of at least four of the following five items: cylinder

heads, cylinder blocks, crankshafts, camshafts and connecting rods.

Initial production of cylinder blocks and heads must be at least at the

machining stage.

Although the Government is not allowed to specifically require minimum local

content levels under WTO regulations, component manufacturing and sourcing

plans must be submitted for approval. The BOI assesses these plans and

makes an arbitrary ruling based on merit.


Page 15 Chapter 6 Biofuel incentives

Chapter 6 Biofuel incentives

Independent of developments in the eco-car segment, in January 2008 the

Thai government reduced excise taxes on cars compatible with E20 gasohol

and B2 biodiesel to xx% for cars with an engine smaller than xxxxcc, from the

xx% applied to similar-sized, non gasohol-compatible cars. The overall excise

tax range has been reduced from xxxxx% to xxxxx%, depending on engine

size (see Table 5, below).

E20 comprises xx% ethanol and xx% petrol, while B2 is xx% diesel and x%

vegetable oil. As a result of the January cut in excise taxes, vehicle

manufacturers were able to reduce the price of gasohol-compatible passenger

cars by between THBxxxxxx to as much as THBxxxxxxx for top-of-the-range

cars. Government policy looks set to continue in this direction as it tries to slow

the country’s rising dependence for fossil fuels.

Table 5: Excise tax rates on passenger cars by type and fuel compatibility, January 2008 (%)

Engine size (cc) Standard fuel E85 gasohol E20 gasohol/B2 Eco-cars

< 2000 xx xx xx xx

2001-2500 xx xx xx -

3501-3000 xx xx xx -

Larger than 3000 xx xx xx -

Sources: Thai government

Biofuel subsidies

Further tax subsidies are applied to the biofuel itself, making E20 and B2 a few

percentage points cheaper than conventional fuels. It has been argued that

these benefits are offset by the higher consumption rates of the fuel.

Nevertheless the Thai state-owned petroleum company, PTT Plc, is struggling

to produce and distribute enough E20 to keep up with the growing demand, as

more and more E20-compatible cars are sold in the country. The Federation of


Page 18 Chapter 7 Manufacturer eco-car programmes

Chapter 7 Manufacturer eco-car programmes

Companies pledge xxxxxxx units in new capacity

The Thai Board of Investment has approved seven eco-car proposals involving

combined investments in the region of THBxxbn, or close to US$xbn. The

seven new plants will add xxxxxxx units in new vehicle production capacity in

the country and are expected to produce a combined total of at least xxxxxxx

eco-cars per year, within five years of completion, if they are to comply with the

Government’s eco-car investment requirements.

The Thai government has adopted advanced European technical

specifications as the main standards for the eco-cars, mainly because Europe

is the largest and most developed regional small car market in the world. The

Government is trying to steal a march on rivals from India and China and

encourage participants to ultimately target Europe as a key export destination

in addition to Asia-Pacific.

Tata could struggle to meet targets

While most of the companies investing in eco-car plants are well established in

the Thai market, two of these – Suzuki Motors and Tata Motor – have a very

limited presence in the country. Tata Motors, in particular, will likely struggle to

meet the minimum volume requirements set out by the Thai government’s

incentive guidelines as well as its own domestic (Thai) sales targets. The

company also has a negligible presence in other major Asian markets outside

India, and overall it is expected to struggle to find buyers for its Thai-made

cars.

Suzuki’s Thai sales targets are more conservative even though it is making

significant progress in building up its sales network in Thailand. The company

also has a strong presence in other Asian markets.


Page 26 Chapter 8 Outlook for Thai vehicle production

Chapter 8 Outlook for Thai vehicle production

Competition from eco-cars from 2009

Thai vehicle production growth is forecast to slow sharply in 2008, rising by

just xxx% to xxxxm units, up from just over xxxm units in 2007. Passenger car

production is expected to continue to outperform this year thanks to buoyant

domestic sales and strong demand in key export markets. Output is expected

to weaken significantly from 2009, however, due to slowing economic growth

in the region, with rising interest rates and inflation begin to affect consumer

spending.

The launch of Honda’s new eco-car, which is scheduled to go into production

later this year, will help lift overall volumes, but demand for existing cars will

inevitably begin to suffer. As competition from the eco-car segment intensifies

in the next few years, conventional passenger car production is expected to

come under further pressure – particularly small cars such as the Toyota Yaris

and the Honda Fit. With fuel prices unlikely to fall significantly in the medium

term, consumer preference is likely to shift increasingly towards more fuel-

efficient vehicles.

Pick-up truck output under pressure

After a strong first half of 2008, pick-up truck output is expected to weaken

significantly in the second half with slowing economic growth in key overseas

markets expected to affect export demand. Domestic sales have already

slowed sharply in recent months. Pick-up truck output is expected to remain

under pressure for some time, as high fuel costs exacerbate an already weak

demand environment both domestically and overseas. Vehicle life-cycles are

likely to be extended as economic pressures mount and potential buyers may

also opt for lower-cost means of transport.


Page 29 Chapter 9 Supply-chain investment

Chapter 9 Supply-chain investment

In order to successfully promote a new expansion phase of the Thai vehicle

industry, the country’s Board of Investment needs to attract new investment in

key upstream sectors, particularly in the manufacture of high-quality steel and

automotive components. The BOI is actively promoting investments in these

areas with incentives and other support initiatives.

Steel sector investments

The country’s automotive and other key industries such as domestic

appliances and electronics currently rely heavily on steel imports from South

Korea and China. The BOI is encouraging investment in high-quality upstream

steel production, with the aim not only of eliminating the country’s dependence

on imports, but to also supply steel to other manufacturers in the region.

With automotive sector production set to rise sharply in the medium term, as

the above-mentioned eco-car programmes get under way, the country’s steel

demand is expected to rise sharply in the next few years. The Government has

identified an urgent need for substantial investment in smelting capacity.

Steel demand set to soar

The Thai government expects annual domestic demand for high-quality steel

to double in the next ten years to xxm tons per year, from xxxxm tons at

present. It currently imports xxxm tons of steel per year from Japan and South

Korea, worth over THBxxxbn (or close to US$xxxbn). Other ASEAN countries

import a combined xxxm tons of steel per year, worth just under US$xbn,

according to data released by the BOI.

New incentives announced

In November 2007, the Government signed off a package of incentives with

related guidelines designed to promote investments in high-quality steel

production. The Government also offers assistance to help secure optimum

locations for steel production and to ensure that appropriate infrastructure is

available, including deep-sea port facilities and adequate water supply.


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Thailand’s emerging eco-car industry – forecasts to … · Page v Contents Chapter 7 Manufacturer eco-car programmes ... (THB bn, No. of cars and %).....19 Table 7: Thai vehicle