Thailand’s Sovereign Kim Eng Tan Senior Director Credit Trend: …ratings.spglobal.com/rs/583-TMS-002/images/TRIS Sov.pdf · 2018-02-23 · Home Tab. To get to the next bullet level,

No content below the line No content below the line

Footer : Never change the footer text on individual slides. Change, turn on or off

footer by using Insert Header & Footer Enter / change text Click Apply All.

Data color order:

Used with accent colors:

Complimentary colors:

Thailand’s Sovereign Credit Trend: The Long Term View

Kim Eng Tan

Senior Director

Sovereign Ratings

Copyright © 2018 by S&P Global. All rights reserved.




Data color order:



Content – No

subtitle

Level 1 has a

bullet turned on

– you can turn

bullets off by

marking the

Level 1 text and

unclick the bullet

icon on the

Home Tab.

To get to the

next bullet level,

use “Increase

List level” on the

Home Tab.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

Strong Balance Sheet Underpins Thailand’s Sovereign Creditworthiness

Score

Institutional assessment 4

Economic assessment 4

External assessment 1

Budget performance 3

Debt 2

Monetary assessment 3

To change, turn on or off footer: Inset > Header & Footer > Enter / change text > Click Apply All. 2

Source: S&P Global Ratings




Data color order:



Content – No

subtitle

Level 1 has a

bullet turned on

– you can turn

bullets off by

marking the

Level 1 text and

unclick the bullet

icon on the

Home Tab.

To get to the

next bullet level,

use “Increase


Home Tab.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

Economic Growth Slightly Below Par In Recent Years

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

IndiaMyanmar

LaosCambodia

BangladeshChina

PhilippinesVietnam

IndonesiaMongoliaPakistanMalaysia

Sri LankaFiji

KoreaThailand

New ZealandSingapore

Hong KongAustralia

MacaoBrunei

TaiwanJapan

Average growth in 2013-2021 (%)


Source: IMF, S&P Global Ratings




Data color order:



Content – No

subtitle

Level 1 has a

bullet turned on

– you can turn

bullets off by

marking the

Level 1 text and

unclick the bullet

icon on the

Home Tab.

To get to the

next bullet level,

use “Increase


Home Tab.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

In Good Company?

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Fiji Korea Thailand NewZealand

Singapore HongKong

Australia Macao Brunei Taiwan Japan

Per capita GDP (2018, US$)


Sxource: IMF




Data color order:



Content 2

columns

Level 1 has a

bullet turned on

– you can turn

bullets off by

marking the

Level 1 text and

unclick the bullet

icon on the

Home Tab.

To get to the

next bullet level,

use “Increase


Home Tab.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

Economic Relativity Will Change If Growth Differences Persist

Cambodia 2% Lao P.D.R.

2%

Malaysia 30%

Myanmar 6%

Thailand 40%

Vietnam 20%

2018


Source: IMF, S&P Global Ratings

Cambodia 3% Lao P.D.R.

3%

Malaysia 30%

Myanmar 10%

Thailand 28%

Vietnam 26%

2038




Data color order:



Content – No

subtitle

Level 1 has a

bullet turned on

– you can turn

bullets off by

marking the

Level 1 text and

unclick the bullet

icon on the

Home Tab.

To get to the

next bullet level,

use “Increase


Home Tab.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

Thailand Aging Much Faster Than Neighbors

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Old-age dependency ratio (%)


Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2017

Japan Thailand

China

Vietnam

Laos

Myanmar Cambodia




Data color order:



Content – No

subtitle

Level 1 has a

bullet turned on

– you can turn

bullets off by

marking the

Level 1 text and

unclick the bullet

icon on the

Home Tab.

To get to the

next bullet level,

use “Increase


Home Tab.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

Wages Are A Relatively Small Share Of National Income…

Income component of GDP

Compensation

Gross operating

surplus and other

income

Direct taxes


Soxurce: National Economic & Social Development Board




Data color order:



Content – No

subtitle

Level 1 has a

bullet turned on

– you can turn

bullets off by

marking the

Level 1 text and

unclick the bullet

icon on the

Home Tab.

To get to the

next bullet level,

use “Increase


Home Tab.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

…Among Economies That Publish Such Data

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Turkey(US$11,100)

Thailand(US$6,700)

Greece(US$20,600)

Malaysia(US$10,500)

Singapore(US$55,200)

Israel(US$40,800)

Korea(US$30,900)

Latvia(US$17,200)

South Africa(US$6,300)

Estonia(US$22,000)

Japan(US$40,100)

Share of compensation in national income (%)


Source: OECD, IMF, Various national statistical sources




Data color order:



Content 2

columns

Level 1 has a

bullet turned on

– you can turn

bullets off by

marking the

Level 1 text and

unclick the bullet

icon on the

Home Tab.

To get to the

next bullet level,

use “Increase


Home Tab.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

Employment Structure May Be A Reason

Formal

Informal

Agriculture

Wholesale and retail

trade

Manufacturing

Accommodation and

food

Construction

[CATEGORY NAME]


Source: Thailand National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand




Data color order:



Content 2

columns

Level 1 has a

bullet turned on

– you can turn

bullets off by

marking the

Level 1 text and

unclick the bullet

icon on the

Home Tab.

To get to the

next bullet level,

use “Increase


Home Tab.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

Many Employed In Lower Wage Industries

5,772

9,711

10,818

12,266

12,466

12,532

13,721

23,736

24,213

Agricultural

Construction

Accomm and food

Admin & Support

W & R trade

Manufacturing

Total

Education

Financial

Average wage in 2017 (Baht/month)


Source: Bank of Thailand, National Statistical Office of Thailand




Data color order:



Content 2

columns

Level 1 has a

bullet turned on

– you can turn

bullets off by

marking the

Level 1 text and

unclick the bullet

icon on the

Home Tab.

To get to the

next bullet level,

use “Increase


Home Tab.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

Things Are Changing


Source: Bank of Thailand, National Statistical Office of Thailand

38.2%

19.9%

49.9%

48.5%

44.7%

46.5%

10.3%

36.0%

23.1%

Total

Agricultural

Manufacturing

Construction

W & R trade

Accomm and food

Financial

Admin & Support

Education

Growth in average wage over 2011-2017

-1,006

-3,100

806

-212

284

295

233

129

192

-102

Total

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Construction

W & R trade

Transportation

Accomm & food

Financial

Admin & support

Education

Change in employment over 2011-2017 (thousand)




Data color order:



Title and

Content

Headline and

content layout.

Only use S&P

Global Red for

key text high-

lights, not shapes

or charts.

It’s available in

the custom color

palette.

No schooling 3%

Incomplete primary 21%

Primary 22%

Lower Secondary 16%

Upper secondary 16%

Tertiary 21%

Others 1%

Labour force

More Education Would Be Useful

Sxoure: National Statistical Office of Thailand





Data color order:



Thank you

Kim Eng Tan

Senior Director

Sovereign and International Public Finance Ratings

T: +65 6239 6350

[email protected]

13

Documents

Thailand’s Sovereign Kim Eng Tan Senior Director Credit Trend: …ratings.spglobal.com/rs/583-TMS-002/images/TRIS Sov.pdf · 2018-02-23 · Home Tab. To get to the next bullet level,