ByMr. Prutichai ChonglertvanichkulMr. Prutichai Chonglertvanichkul

Assistant Governor - PlanningElectricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT)

Presented to

High Level Forum on Lao-Thai Partnership in Sustainable Hydropower Development

7 September 2007

Shangri-La Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand

Thailand Power Development Plan Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007)(PDP 2007)

ContentsContents

Introduction

Present Status of Thailand Power System

Assumptions of PDP 2007

Thailand Power Development Plan

Thailand – Lao PDR Collaboration

Conclusion

IntroductionIntroduction

What is a Power Development Plan?What is a Power Development Plan?

กําลงัผลติสํารองกําลงัผลติติดตั้ง

(ปจจุบนั)2,7115.203 MW

กําลังผลิต (MW)

รฟ.ใหม

20XX 20XX 20XX 20XX ป

ความตองก

ารไฟฟา

รฟ.ใหม

รฟ.ใหม

รฟ.ใหม

กําลงัผลติสํารองกําลงัผลติติดตั้ง

(ปจจุบนั)2,7115.203 MW

กําลังผลิต (MW)

รฟ.ใหม

20XX 20XX 20XX 20XX ป

ความตองก

ารไฟฟา

รฟ.ใหม

รฟ.ใหม

รฟ.ใหม

An optimum plan to indicate new power plants with appropriate sizes and types at appropriate time to serve the increasing demand in the next 10-15 years adequately.

Objectives of Power Development PlansObjectives of Power Development Plans

• Optimum Plan

• System Reliability and Quality

• Environmental Impact

Key Inputs for Developing PDPKey Inputs for Developing PDP

Existing System InformationLong Term Power Demand ForecastFuel PricesSchedules of Power Plant RetirementCandidate Power PlantsNational Energy PolicyPlanning Criteria

Present Status of Present Status of Thailand Power SystemThailand Power System

Installed Capacity Installed Capacity –– by Power Plant Typesby Power Plant Types

28,522.528,522.5 MW22,586.1 MW

Combined Cycle 13,539.9 MW

47.5 %

Hydro3,764.2 MW

13.2 %

Thermal9,666.6 MW

33.9 %

EGAT-TNB300 MW

1.1 %

Gas Turbine and Diesel972.4 MW

3.4 %

Renewable Energy279.3 MW

1.0 %

Total Installed Capacity (as of 31 July 2007)Peak Demand (24 April 2007)

EGAT15,794.6 MW

55 %

IPPs, SPPs, VSPPs, Lao PDR, and Malaysia

12,727.9 MW

45%

Installed Capacity Installed Capacity –– byby ProducersProducers

Total Installed Capacity (as of 31 July 2007)Peak Demand (24 April 2007)

28,522.528,522.5 MW22,586.1 MW

Natural Gas66.0%

Hydro7.2%

Lignite12.5%

EGAT-TNB1.6%

Heavy Oil2.0%

Imported Coal9.0%

Diesel0.02%

Renewable Resources1.7%

Energy Generation Energy Generation –– by Fuel Type, by Fuel Type, JanJan--Jul 2007Jul 2007

Total Energy Generation and the Purchased85,664 85,664 GWh (* preliminary figure)

Energy Generation Energy Generation –– by Producersby Producers, , JanJan--Jul 2007Jul 2007

EGAT38,912 GWh

45.4%

IPPs,SPPs,VSPPs, Purchase from

Neighboring Countries

46,752 GWh54.6 %

Total Energy Generation and the Purchased85,664 85,664 GWh (* preliminary figure)

Daily Peak Load: March Daily Peak Load: March –– May 2007May 2007

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun

Day

MWMW

2007

2006

MarchReserve Margin

2006 = 24.11%

2007 = 22.91%

AprilReserve Margin

2006 = 25.28%

2007 = 20.44%

22,586 MWon 24 April 2007

at 2:30 p.m. Increased from April 2006

by 10.01%

21,064 MW4 May 2006

at 1:30 p.m.

22,161 MWIncreased from

March 2006 by 6.83%

21,234 MWIncreased from May 2006

by 0.81%

MayReserve Margin

2006 = 22.10%

2007 = 31.48%

Transmission SystemsTransmission Systems

(As of April 2007)

Total High Voltage Transmission Line Length: 30,098 circuit-km

– 500 kV – 3,433 circuit-km– 230 kV – 12,795 circuit-km– 132 kV – 9 circuit-km– 115 kV – 13,792 circuit-km– 69 kV – 46 circuit-km

Total High Voltage Substation: 205 Substations

Transformers: 66,316 MVA

Northern

Northeastern

Central

Southern

Metropolitan

Nam Ngum115 kV

Thakek22 kV

Suwannakhet115 kV

Xe Xet115 kV

115 & 132 kV

Theun Hinboun230 kV

Huay Ho230 kV

EGAT - TNB

115 & 230 kV

230 kV

230 & 500 kV

115 & 230 kV

Assumptions of PDP 2007Assumptions of PDP 2007

Power Demand ForecastPower Demand Forecast(Prepared by the Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee)(Prepared by the Thailand Load Forecast Subcommittee)

Assumptions:Assumptions:Use actual power demand of 2006 as the base yearUse estimated GDP growth rate provided by the NESDB for Base case, GDP –0.5% for Low case, and GDP +0.5% for High case– Average GDP growth rate of 2007–2011 (the 10th NESDP) is 5.0%.– Average GDP growth rate of 2012–2016 (the 11th NESDP) is 5.6%.– Average GDP growth rate of 2017–2021 (the 12th NESDP) is 5.6%.

NESDB = National Economic and Social Development BoardNESDP = National Economic and Social Development Plan

Long Term Load ForecastLong Term Load ForecastMarch 2007: Base CaseMarch 2007: Base Case

Peak Demand Energy Load

Year Increase Increase FactorMW % GWh % %

Actual

2 0 0 3 18,121 1 ,4 4 0 8 .6 3 118,374 7 ,0 7 4 6 .3 6 7 4 .5 7

2 0 0 4 19,326 1 ,2 0 4 6 .6 5 127,457 9 ,0 8 3 7 .6 7 7 5 .0 8

2 0 0 5 20,538 1,212 6.27 134,827 7,370 5.78 74.94 2 0 0 6 21,064 527 2.56 141,948 7,121 5.28 76.93

Forecast2 0 0 7 22,513 1,449 6.88 150,665 8,717 6.14 76.40 2 0 0 8 23,957 1,444 6.41 158,994 8,329 5.53 75.76 2 0 0 9 25,225 1,268 5.29 167,947 8,953 5.63 76.00 2 0 1 0 26,635 1,410 5.59 177,285 9,338 5.56 75.98 2 0 1 1 27,996 1,361 5.11 185,926 8,641 4.87 75.81 2 0 1 2 29,625 1,629 5.82 196,723 10,797 5.81 75.80 2 0 1 3 31,384 1,759 5.94 208,478 11,755 5.98 75.83 2 0 1 4 33,216 1,832 5.84 220,759 12,281 5.89 75.87 2 0 1 5 35,251 2,035 6.13 234,375 13,616 6.17 75.90 2 0 1 6 37,382 2,131 6.05 248,575 14,200 6.06 75.91 2 0 1 7 39,560 2,178 5.83 263,076 14,501 5.83 75.91 2 0 1 8 41,795 2,235 5.65 278,021 14,945 5.68 75.94 2 0 1 9 44,082 2,287 5.47 293,257 15,236 5.48 75.94 2 0 2 0 46,481 2,399 5.44 309,236 15,979 5.45 75.95 2 0 2 1 48,958 2,477 5.33 325,697 16,461 5.32 75.94

MW GWh

Fuel PriceFuel Price

Natural Gas

Fuel Oil

Diesel

Lignite

Imported Coal

Nuclear

PTT

PTT

PTT

EGAT

EGAT

Ux Consulting Company

Forecasted byType

Power Plant Retirement SchedulePower Plant Retirement Schedule

2007-2015

2016-2021

Year EGAT Power Plant(MW)

2,102

2,831

Total 4,933 2,756 7,689

IPPs/SPPs(MW)

Total(MW)

1,307

1,449

3,409

4,280

Candidate Power PlantCandidate Power Plant

700 MW Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plant

700 MW Gas-Fired Combined Cycle Power Plant

230 MW Gas Turbine Power Plant

1,000 MW Nuclear Power Plant

National Energy PolicyNational Energy Policy

Increased power import from neighboring countries during 2011-2021

Power Purchase from SPP, VSPP1,700 MW additional power purchased from SPPs during 2012-2020 (to make 4,000 MW in total of the purchased from SPPs)

Fuel Diversification (Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Imported Hydro Power)

Possible Power Import from Neighboring CountriesPossible Power Import from Neighboring Countries

Laos

China

Myanmar

MW

5,000

3,000

8,200

Total 16,200

Country

Planning CriteriaPlanning Criteria

System Reliability– Minimum Reserve Margin : 15%– Maximum LOLP : 24 Hours/Year

Efficiency Improvement– EGAT Power Plant Enhancement (CHP)

Thailand Power Development Plan Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP 2007)(PDP 2007)

Various ScenariosVarious Scenarios

PDPs were formulated in 3 scenarios for each load forecast. Totally, there are 9 scenarios as followings.

Load Forecast : Base Case (B)Plan B1 : Least Cost PlanPlan B2 : Sub-Optimum Plan with Possible Coal-Fired Power PlantsPlan B3 : Sub-Optimum Plan with Possible Coal-Fired Power Plants,

10 MTPA LNG Limitation and More Power Import from Neighboring Countries

Load Forecast : Low Case (L)Plan L1-3 (Corresponding to Plan B1-3)

Load Forecast : High Case (H)Plan H1-3 (Corresponding to Plan B1-3)

Additional Capacity (MW)Total EGAT Private

2007 SPPs 20.3BLCP Power Co., Ltd. # 2 673.25Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. # 1 734

Total Annual Increase 1,428 - 1,4282008 South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 1 (CHP) 38

SPPs 39Solar Energy, Wind Energy (RPS) 3Chana Combined Cycle Power Plant 710Gulf Power Generation Co., Ltd. # 2 734Ratchburi Power Co., Ltd. # 1-2 2x700

Total Annual Increase 2,924 751 2,1732009 South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 2 (CHP) 74

Small Hydro (RPS) 45.7SPPs 88South Bangkok Combined Cycle # 3 715Bang Pakong Combined Cycle # 5 715Power Purchase from Laos (Nam Theun 2) 920

Total Annual Increase 2,558 1,550 1,0082010 Wangnoi Combined Cycle # 1-3 (CHP) 243

North Bangkok Combined Cycle # 1 700Small Hydro (RPS) 33

Total Annual Increase 976 976 -

Power Plant ProjectsYear

Ongoing Power Plant Projects (2007 Ongoing Power Plant Projects (2007 –– 2010)2010)

2007 Upgrading of the 115 kV Central-Southern Regions tie line to 230 kV Project

Transmission System Expansion Project - Phase 10 (2007 -2008)

Transmission System for Chana Combined Cycle Power Plant Project

2008 Transmission System for South Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 3

Transmission System for Bang Pakong Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 5

Transmission System Project for Power Purchased from Nam Theun 2 Hydro Power Plant

Transmission System Expansion Projects for the Greater Bangkok Area and Vicinity - Phase 2 (2008-2010)

2009 Transmission System for North Bangkok Combined Cycle Power Plant Project Block 1

2010 500 kV Transmission System Project for IPPs Power Plants

500 kV Transmission System for Power Purchased from Nam Ngum 2 Hydroelctric Project

Transmission System ProjectsYear

Ongoing Transmission System Projects Ongoing Transmission System Projects (2007(2007––2010)2010)

Power Increasing Total PeakReserveMargin

Gas Coal Nuclear SPP Import Capacity Capacity Demand (%)

2011 - - - - 597 597 34,037 27,996 18.0

2012 1,400 - - 200 220 1,820 35,857 29,625 17.4

2013 1,400 - - 200 963 2,563 37,800 31,384 16.5

2014 1,400 700 - 200 261 2,561 40,361 33,216 17.7

2015 1,400 1,400 - 200 - 3,000 42,186 35,251 16.1

Total 5,600 2,100 - 800 2,041 10,5412016 1,400 700 - 200 390 2,690 44,127 37,382 16.4

2017 2,800 - - 200 500 3,500 47,119 39,560 15.6

2018 2,800 - - 200 510 3,510 49,888 41,795 15.6

2019 3,500 - - 200 530 4,230 52,829 44,082 16.5

2020 1,400 - 2,000 100 550 4,050 55,251 46,481 16.7

2021 700 - 2,000 570 3,270 58,321 48,958 15.4-

Total 12,600 700 4,000 900 3,050 21,250

Grand Total 18,200 2,800 4,000 1,700 5,091 31,791

YearNew Domestic Capacity

PDP 2007 (Recommended Plan)PDP 2007 (Recommended Plan)

Power Increasing Total PeakReserveMargin

Gas Coal Nuclear SPP Import Capacity Capacity Demand (%)

2011 - - - - 597 597 34,037 27,996 18.0

2012 1,400 - - 200 220 1,820 35,857 29,625 17.4

2013 1,400 - - 200 963 2,563 37,800 31,384 16.5

2014 1,400 700 - 200 261 2,561 40,361 33,216 17.7

2015 1,400 1,400 - 200 - 3,000 42,186 35,251 16.1

Total 5,600 2,100 - 800 2,041 10,5412016 1,400 700 - 200 390 2,690 44,127 37,382 16.4

2017 1,400 - - 200 1,900 3,500 47,119 39,560 15.6

2018 1,400 - - 200 1,910 3,510 49,888 41,795 15.6

2019 - - - 200 4,030 4,230 52,829 44,082 16.5

2020 - - 2,000 100 1,950 4,050 55,251 46,481 16.7

2021 - - 2,000 1,270 3,270 58,321 48,958 15.4-

Total 4,200 700 4,000 900 11,450 21,250

Grand Total 9,800 2,800 4,000 1,700 13,491 31,791

YearNew Domestic Capacity

PDP 2007 (Alternative Plan)PDP 2007 (Alternative Plan)

Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Recommended Plan)Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Recommended Plan)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Imported Power

Nuclear

Renewable Energy

Diesel

Heavy Oil

Natural Gas

Imported Coal

Lignite

Hydro (Domestic)

8%

12%

7% 6%

73%

69%71%

72%

11%

6%

13%

70%

6% 6% 12%

73% 69%

5%

10%8%7% 6% 6%

12% 10%

75%

65%

9% 8%

8%9%

9%

8%8%

8%

8%8%

8%

5% 9%

75%

6%

GWh

GWh

YearYear

69%

10%

6%

7%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Imported Power

Nuclear

Renewable Energy

Diesel

Heavy Oil

Natural Gas

Imported Coal

Lignite

Hydro (Domestic)

Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Alternative Plan)Energy Generation by Fuel Types (Alternative Plan)

8% 7% 6%

69%73%

69% 67% 64%

6%

70%57% 50%

5%7% 6% 6%

75%

46%

10% 9% 8%

24%27%

28%

8%12% 16%

8%8%

8%5% 9%

75%

6%6%

12% 11%13%6% 6%

12% 10%7% 8% 12% 10%

Thailand Thailand –– Lao PDR CollaborationLao PDR Collaboration

Power Purchased from Lao PDRPower Purchased from Lao PDR

YearYear ProjectsProjects Capacity Capacity (MW)(MW)

StatusStatus

1998 Theun Hinboun 214 Commissioned

1999 Huay Ho 126 Commissioned

2009 Nam Theun 2 920 PPA signed, Under construction

2011 Nam Ngum 2 597 PPA signed, Under construction

2012 Theun Hinboun (Extended) 220 Draft Tariff MOU completed, to be signed within 2007

2013 Nam Ngum 3 440 PPA to be signed within 2007

Nam Theun 1 523 PPA to be signed within 2007

2014 Nam Ngiep 1 261 Tariff MOU signed on June 13, 2007

TotalTotal 3,3013,301

Noted: The Royal Thai Government and the Laos Government have signed the MOU, on 18 December 2006, stating that Thailand will increase the imported capacity from 3,000 MW to 5,000 MW from Laos.

Thailand Thailand –– Lao PDR InterconnectionLao PDR Interconnection

Existing Future ProjectsExisting Future Projects

500 kV Transmission Line500 kV Transmission Line

230 kV Transmission Line230 kV Transmission Line

115 kV Transmission Line115 kV Transmission Line

ConclusionConclusion

Conclusion : Long Term PDPConclusion : Long Term PDP

PDP was formulated based on available current information.

Once this information is updated and/or new national policy on energy is applied, PDP is also reformulated.

This probably changes the results in the number of future power plants and their fuel requirement.

PDP is therefore ‘A Rolling Plan’.

Thank You...Thank You...

Fuel PriceFuel Price

Note : (1–3) Data from PTT, 31 January 2007 (at crude price 55 USD/BBL): (4) Data from EGAT: (5) 2008-2011 FOB forecast from ABARE (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics),

average transportation cost 15 USD/Ton: (6) Ux Consulting Company, 21 February 2007

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Year Diesel Lignite Imported Coal Nuclear

(THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU) (THB/MMBTU)

2007 326 619 53.1 90.1 24.7 2008 326 619 53.1 90.6 24.7 2009 326 619 53.9 89.8 24.7 2010 326 619 55.2 89.7 24.7 2011 222 326 619 57.0 88.6 24.7 2012 246 326 619 58.9 89.1 24.7 2013 244 326 619 60.7 89.6 24.7 2014 246 326 619 62.6 90.1 24.7 2015 246 326 619 63.7 90.6 24.7 2016 248 326 619 65.7 91.2 24.7 2017 249 326 619 68.2 91.7 24.7 2018 251 326 619 72.4 92.2 24.7 2019 253 326 619 74.7 92.7 24.7 2020 254 326 619 76.3 93.3 24.7 2021 255 326 619 78.1 93.8 24.7

Marginal Natural Gas

for New Plants

2% Sulfur Heavy Oil

Exchange Rate : 37 THB/USD