Thailand 20 Year Strategic Plan and Reforms Dr. Porametee Vimolsiri

Secretary-General of the NESDB

8.4 9.2

8.7 8.0 8.1 5.7

-2.8 -7.6

4.6 4.5 3.4 6.1

7.2

6.3 4.2 5.0 5.4

1.7 -0.7

7.5

0.8

7.2

2.7 0.9

2.9 3.2

-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9

12

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

%YOY GDP growth (CVM %)

Overall: During the 1st Plan-2016, Thai economy grew by 6.0 percent annually on average. But the growth rate slows down and becomes more volatile over time.

1997 Crisis

Financial Crisis Flood

Plan 7 (1992-1996)

Plan 8 (1997-2001)

Plan 9 (2002-2006)

Plan 10 (2007-2011)

Plan 11 (2012-2016)

GDP (CVM %) 7.9 0.4 5.8 3.0 3.4 Total investment (CVM %) 9.6 -13.1 10.3 1.9 2.9 Private (CVM %) 7.4 -13.9 13.3 3.1 1.5 Public (CVM %) 18.5 -7.8 3.6 -0.8 8.0 Private consumption (CVM %) 7.8 1.1 5.6 2.1 2.8 Government expenditure (CVM %) 8.7 3.3 4.5 7.3 3.3 Export value (%) 9.2 3.4 15.3 12.4 -0.6

Political protests Pro-cyclical

interventions

Source: NESDB

Thai Economic Projection 2017 Actual Data Projection of 2017

2015 2016 15 May 17 21 Aug 60

GDP Growth (%) 2.9 3.2 3.3 – 3.8 3.5 – 4.0

Private Consumption (%) 2.2 3.1 3.0 3.2

Public Consumption (%) 3.0 1.7 3.2 3.2

Private Investment (%) -2.2 0.4 2.0 2.2

Public Investment (%) 29.3 9.9 12.6 8.0

Export Growth rate (USD,%) -5.6 0.1 3.6 5.7

Inflation (%) -0.9 0.2 0.8 – 1.3 0.4 – 0.9

Current account to GDP (%) 8.1 11.5 8.9 9.7 Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board, 21st August 2017

20-Year National Strategy (2017 - 2036)

“Security, Prosperity, Sustainability” To become a high-income country

“The Philosophy of Sufficiency Economy” Achieving national interests in improving quality

of life, generating high income to escape middle-income trap and ensuring well-being for all Thais

Society is stable, equitable and fair. And the nation is competitive in the global markets.

6 Key Strategies • National security • Competitiveness enhancement • Development and Empowerment of Human Capital • Broadening Opportunity and Equality in Society • Environmental-friendly development and growth • Reforming and Improving Government Administration

To achieve the vision

Security

1

2

3

4

5 6

Competitiveness enhancement

Development and Empowerment Human Capital

Broadening Opportunity and

Equality in Society

Environmentally-friendly growth

Reforming Government

Administration

“Prosperity”

The goal of the 20-year National Strategy and the 12th National Economic and Social Development Plan

“Developed Country”

High income country with 15,000 USD per cap NI Economic growth of 5-6% per year

People of all ages are healthy with lifelong learning

Target Gini below 0.36

Forest area contributes 40% Corruption Perceptions Index ranked as

the 2nd best of ASEAN

1

2

3

4

5 Human

Economy

Social

Environment

Public IQ is well above average

500 score PISA +

85% Literacy rate above 85

15% + The average income of the 40% poorest population increases by at least 5% per year

90% Elementary enrolment rate above 90%

Economic growth of 5% per year

Per capital NI 8,200 USD

Growth in agriculture, manufacturing and service are 3%,4.5%,6% per year

Forest area contributes 40%

Irrigation area 350,000 Rai

40%

Greenhouse gas emission decrease by 7%

350,000

7%

Public administration score ranked as the 2 best of ASEAN

Corruption Perceptions Index above 50

IMD 2nd of ASEAN

50+

20-year targets

the 12th National Economic and Social Development Plan (2017 – 2021) 2036

2015 The 12th Plan (2017-2021) The 13th 5-year Plan 14th 15th

20-Year National Strategy (2017 – 2036)

Social

Strategy 1 Resilience Enhancement

Strategy 2 Just and inclusive development

Economic

Strategy 3 Competitiveness building

Strategy 10 International Cooperation for Development

Enabling Factor

Strategy 7 infrastructure and logistics development

Strategy 8 Science&tech research/innovation

Natural Resource

Strategy 4 Environment friendly development

Security

Strategy 5 Building country's security

Public Administration

Strategy 9 spatial development

Spatial

Strategy 6 Good governance in public sector

10 Development Strategies

6 Development Pillars Human capacity building

Creation of equal opportunity and society

Building competitive

Improving quality of life and environment friendly

National security

Balance and development of public administration

“Security Prosperity Sustainability” A vision of the 20-Year National Strategy

used as a vision framework of the 12th Plan. Together with SDGs Goal

Vision

National Strategy

CONSTITUTION OF THE KINGDOM OF THAILAND (2017)

National Reform Plan

Section 259. “Subject to section 260 and section 261, national reform under this Chapter shall be in accordance with the law on plans and processes for implementation of national reform, …”

Section 65. “The State should set out a national strategy as a goal for sustainable development of the country under the principle of good governance to be used as a framework for formulating consistent and integrated plans in a congruous force to achieve such goal”

National Strategy

Act

National Reform Plan and

Implementation Act

Politics Administration of State Affairs Law Justice Process

Economy National Resources Public Health Mass

Communication

Social Energy Anticorruption

11 Areas to at least achieve