Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q1/19 · -1-Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q1/19 Opportunity Day Presentation 21 May 2019 Time : 13.00 - 14.00 hrs. Venue : Stock Exchange of Thailand,

-1-

Thai Oil Public Company LimitedQ1/19 Opportunity Day Presentation21 May 2019

Time : 13.00 - 14.00 hrs.

Venue : Stock Exchange of Thailand, Building B, Room 603

-2--2-

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your

personal reference. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an

intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take

any action in reliance upon it.

Some statements made in this material are forward-looking with relevant

assumptions, which are subject to uncertainties, which may cause the actual

result/performance to be materially deviated from any future

result/performance implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note

that the company and management/staff are not capable to control and

guarantee if these forward-looking statements will be accurately materialized,

they are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

-3--3-

VISIONEmpower Human Life

through Sustainable Energy and Chemicals

MISSION• To enrich stakeholders’ well-being and deliver sustainable returns

built upon innovation, technology and resilient portfolio with top

class management and accountable corporate governance

VALUES

Corporate Vision, Mission and Values

Professionalism

Ownership & Commitment

Social ResponsibilityIntegrityTeamwork & CollaborationInitiative

Vision FocusExcellent Striving

-4--4-

Corporate Governance

Corporate Governance PolicyThe board of directors, management and all staff shall

commit to moral principles, equitable treatment to all

stakeholders and perform their duties for the company’s interest

with dedication, integrity, and transparency.

Anti-Corruption PolicyThe Board, the management, and employees must not

corrupt or accept corruption of all forms in any circumstances,

covering the business of the Company in every country and in

every relevant agency. The Company defines guidelines,

operating measures, and roles and duties of responsible

persons, as well as regularly monitoring and reviewing the

implementation of the anti-corruption policy in compliance with

changes in businesses, rules, regulations, and relevant laws.

Roles and Responsibilities

for Stakeholders

• Truthfully report company’s

situation and future trends to all

stakeholders equally on a timely

manner.

• Shall not exploit the confidential

information for the benefit of

related parties or personal gains.

• Shall not disclose any confidential

information to external parties.

Whistle-Blowing Channels

Should you discover any

ethical wrongdoing that is

not compliance to CG

policies or any activity that

could harm the Company’s

interest, please inform:

Chairman of the Board or

Chairman of the CG Committee or

Chairman of the Audit Committee or

CEO/President or Company Secretary

Thai Oil Public Company Limited

555/1 Energy Complex Building A

11F, Vibhavadi Rangsit Road,

Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900

[email protected]

http://www.thaioilgroup.com

+66-0-2797-2999 ext. 7440-7442

+66-0-2797-2973

-5--5-

Our Achievement in Sustainable Development

6th Consecutive Year as the

Member of DJSI Emerging Marketsand high ranked positions.

-6--6-

Q1/19 KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Q1/19 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

2H/19 MARKET OUTLOOK

Presentation Agenda

TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW

-7--7-

TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW

-8--8-

51% 24% 13% 12%RefineryAromaticsLube BaseOthers

Thai Oil Group Business Structure

Net Profit Contribution

(Avg. from 2006 – Q1/19)

IRPC 20.0%

• 5 Oil & Chemical TankersCapacity : 22,800 DWT

• Crude Tankers: 3VLCCsCapacity: 881,050 DWT

• 14 crew & utility boats (120 DWT each)

• 2 Large vessels for crude, feedstock & product storage and transportation services capacity: 200,000 DWT

• Ship management services

9.2 %

Principal power plant of PTTTotal Equity Capacity 1,922 MW of electricity 1,582 tons/hour of steam 2,080 Cu.m./hour of Industrial water 12,000 RT of Chilled water

PTT Group 80.0%

100.0% 100.0% 74.0% 100.0%

Thaioil (TOP)Thai Lube Base

(TLB)Thaioil Power

(TP)

Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited

Thaioil Energy Services(TES)

Thaioil Marine(TM)

Capacity : 275,000 barrels/day Small Power Producer

Program3-on-1 Combined CycleElectricity 118 MWSteam 216 tons/hour

PTT 26.0%

Proceeds the business on various professional of management services

100.0%

Thappline (THAP)

Multi-product PipelineCapacity:26,000 m.lts/y

20.0%

PTTOR 40.4%

Others 50.4%

Lube Base Oil Capacity :Base Oil 267,015 tons/annumBitumen350,000 tons/annumTDAE67,520 tons/annum

Thaioil SolventThrough TOP Solvent (TS)

100.0%

100.0%

Thaioil Ethanol(TET)

Solvent manufacturerCapacity : 141,000tons/annum

Thai Paraxylene(TPX)

100.0%80.5%

Solvent distribute in Thailand

Sak Chaisidhi (SAKC)

Top Solvent Vietnam

Solvent distribute in Vietnam

Sapthip (SAP)

Cassava Based EthanolCapacity : 200,000 lts/day

50.0%

Ubon Bio Ethanol (UBE)

21.3%

Cassava/Molasses Based PlantCapacity : 400,000 lts/day

PTT Energy Solutions(PTTES)

Provides engineering technique consulting services

20.0%

PTT 40.0%PTTGC 20.0%

BCP 21.3%

Others57.4%

Aromatics Capacity:Paraxylene 527,000 tons/annumMixed Xylene52,000 tons/annumBenzene 259,000 tons/annumTotal 838,000 tons/annum

LABIX Company Limited (LABIX)

LAB producer and distributorCapacity: 120 KTA COD: 2016

Mitsui 25.0%75.0% TOP SPP

2 Small Power Producers Total capacity: 239 MWSteam capacity 497 T/HCOD 2016

100.0%

Sells Electricity/Steam to Group

PTT Digital Solutions(PTT Digital)

PTT 22.6%

Thaioil & TP 29.7%

PTTGC 22.7%

Thaioil Treasury Center(TTC)

100.0%

Increases financial efficiency of Thaioil group

Supports execution of social enterprise of PTT group

15.0%PTT Group 85.0%

Sarn Palung Social Enterprise

-9--9-

Q1/19 KEY HIGHLIGHTS

-10--10-

Slightly Soften Aromatics & LAB Margins(GIM contribution 2.0 $/bbl from 2.2 $/bbl in Q4/18)

Implication

Mkt GRM at 3.0 $/bbl(Q4/18 = 3.9 $/bbl)

2.7 $/bbl inventory gain(from stock loss (7.5)$/bbl in Q4/18)

Refinery

Aromatics & LAB

Lube Base Soften Lube Base Contribution(GIM contribution 0.2 $/bbl from 0.4 $/bbl in Q4/18)

Refinery + Aromatics & LAB + Lube Base

$/BBL Q4/18 Q1/19

Market GIM 6.5 5.2

Inventory Gains/ (Loss) (7.4) 2.7

Accounting GIM (0.9) 7.9

Soften refinery margins pressured by weak product spread pressured by weak heating oil demand from mild winter and high gasoline inventory worldwide. However, downside was partially offset by lower crude premium from abundant light crude supply from U.S.

Rising crude price driven by OPEC & Non-OPEC production cut (1.2 MBD), and decreasing Iran’s and Venezuela’s oil export due to U.S. sanctions.

Soften Base Oil spread pressured by additional base oil Gr. 2 & 3 supply mainly from China (1.26 MTA).

Slightly soften aromatics contribution pressured by increasing supplyas Petro Rabigh (1.3 MTA) and Nghi Son (0.7 MTA) run at full capacity and additional supply from China (0.8 MTA). However, ongoing weak feedstock cost (gasoline & naphtha) helped support margins.

2) Based on refinery intake

2)

3)

3) Aromatic contribution including LAB

1)

4) Based on integrated intake

4)

1) Include Margin and Productivity Improvement

Q1/19 Key Market Drivers HighlightsKey Highlights

-11--11-

1,272

4,013 3,835 2,473

(7,211)

381 495

(218)

(37)(166)

(852)

102 334

(544)

1,327

68%

18%

1%11% 2%

Refinery

Aromatic & LAB

Lube Base

Power

Others

Key Achievements Q1/19 TOP Group Net Profit

Maintain high reliable production Unit : million THB (MB) Net Operating ProfitStock gain/(loss) Reversal of Crude NRV /(Crude NRV) & Adjusted to cost

Sustainability& Awards

Q1/19 Q4/18

Refinery 116 % 115 %

Aromatic 92 % 94 %

Base Oil 89 % 86 %

Q4/18 Q1/18

Capture high local & Indochina salesQ1/19 Q4/18

Local 87 % 87 %

Indochina 10 % 8 %

Other exports 3 % 5 %

Operational Excellence

Growth &Profitability

Improvement

Included Stock G/L

(4,812) MB

Q1/19 Key AchievementsKey Highlights

Q1/19

4,408 MB

F/X Risk management gain/(loss)Others i.e. Hedging gain/(loss) & Non-recurring items

Sustainability Member for Oil&Gas Industry for 6th consecutive years of DJSI Emerging Markets

AGM approved Energy Recovery Unit (ERU) Carve out (USD 757 M) to GPSC, with vote 98.6%, to reduce total CAPEX & enhance return after carving out.

Q1/19 FY/18

NACC Integrity Awards 2018, The Office of the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC)

5,608 MB

Management

TOP’s rating is upgraded to BBB+ by S&P after PTT’s SACP is uplifted (May 7).

40%

25%

11%

22%

2%BBB+Stable Outlook

Baa1Stable Outlook

AA- (tha)Stable Outlook

https://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwib6u6DkN7TAhVHtY8KHXJ_CwoQjRwIBw&url=https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fitch_Ratings_Logo.jpg&psig=AFQjCNHKcxzAtcZ0AsFsTZpoUshbZSgi2A&ust=1494258280001322


-12--12-

Cost Management

Key Highlights

Q1/19 Margin and Productivity Improvement (VS Corporate Plan)

THB 807 mn THB 2,197 mn

Margin Improvement(Hydrocarbon Management : HMR) and Productivity Improvement

(Non HMR)

Higher domestic and Indochina sales/ better product premium

*

* Compared with Corp. plan

234

573

*7%

Q1/19

Unit: million THB

734

1,463 Q4/18

General & Admin , Procurement & warehouse , Operation & Maintenance , Project & Manpower management

Others

73 MB 161 MB

Crude Enhancement

Energy improvement

Plant optimization

34%

7%

1%

21%

http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjb-IPbjPTTAhVJTbwKHSJ0B2kQjRwIBw&url=http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-makes-first-crude-oil-purchase-for-strategic-reserve/articleshow/46748522.cms&psig=AFQjCNFvL1i0IIXU2NOCT76eb-ABCnkl7g&ust=1495013276781550

http://www.google.co.th/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjb-IPbjPTTAhVJTbwKHSJ0B2kQjRwIBw&url=http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-makes-first-crude-oil-purchase-for-strategic-reserve/articleshow/46748522.cms&psig=AFQjCNFvL1i0IIXU2NOCT76eb-ABCnkl7g&ust=1495013276781550

-13--13-

Q1/19 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

-14--14-

0

200

400

600

800

Mogas Jet/Kero Diesel Total Demand

Q1/18 Q1/19

3.4%

2.2%

1.6%

2.2%

Refining

Refinery: High U-Rate Operation and Robust Domestic & CLMV Sales

97%94%

97%98% 98%

97% 98%

113%108%

115% 115% 116%113%

116%

70%

90%

110%

Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q1/18 Q1/19

Industry utilization rate TOP utilization rate

TOP’s Domestic Sale vs Industry***Sales breakdown by customers

*** Source: Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy

87% 89% 87% 81% 86% 86%

13% 11% 13% 19% 14% 14%

Q4/18

TOP IndustryThailand

ExportQ1/19 Q4/18 Q1/18

TOP Ind. TOP Ind. TOP Ind.

CLMV 10% 4% 8% 10% 9% 4%

Others 3% 7% 5% 9% 5% 10%

Domestic

Export

50%

7%

1%

34%

8%

Q1/19

Sales

Breakdown

Export**

TOP/ Domestic Refinery Utilization Rate

Unit: % Utilization Rate

Domestic Oil Demand

* exclude Fuel Oil & LPG demand

TOP Industry

Thailand

*

OtherDomesticCustomers

TOP Industry

Thailand

Q1/18** Excludes export sale through PTT

*

Q1/19

Domestic Oil Demand

43%

5%4%1%

38%

9%

Q4/18

Sales

Breakdown

Export**

OtherDomesticCustomers

-15--15-

66 63 63 6874 74 73 72 77 79

6657 59 65 67 71 73

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2018 2019

Gross Refinery Margins - GRM

Refining

2018 2019 2018

$/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY18

DUBAI (DB) 63.9 72.1 74.3 67.4 63.5 70.4 69.4

ULG95 - DB 13.7 12.1 11.6 4.7 3.7 8.6 10.5

JET - DB 16.1 15.3 14.5 15.6 13.0 11.9 15.4

GO - DB 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.8 12.8 12.3 14.6

HSFO - DB (4.9) (4.4) (2.5) 1.4 0.6 (2.8) (2.6)

2018 2019

$2.7/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Market GRM 5.7 4.0 5.0 3.9 3.0

Stock G/(L) 0.4 5.0 1.2 (7.5) 2.7

Accounting GRM 6.2 9.0 6.2 (3.6) 5.7

Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product SpreadsRefinery Utilization

Q1/19 Q4/18 Q1/18

116% 115% 113%

Dubai Price

(US$/bbl)

Q1/19 Market GRM

Q1/19 Performance

*Murban OSP over Dubai ($/bbl)

% MB Intake/OSP*

36%/1.8

32%/2.5

39%/3.5

Q1/19: Lower Mkt GRM pressured by Weak Product Spread

+ Rising crude price due to OPEC and Non OPEC production cut

+ Highest refinery run rate at 116%

2018

FY18

4.7

(0.4)

4.3

- Soften gasoline spread due to high inventory worldwide

+ Lower crude premium due to abundant light crude supply from U.S.

- Lower middle distillate margin as low heating oil demand from mild winter

+*As of 10 May 19

-16--16-

Aromatic’s Sales (excluding by product) & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)

296 315

300 271 267 267 311

481 559 545 515 524 528 543

454

334 320

246 248 199 145

115 118 130 159

91 73 92 76 38 42 (25)

(59) (80)-100

50

200

350

500

650

2018 2019 2018

$/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY18

PX**-ULG95 304 268 451 528 508 290 388

BZ**-ULG95 231 126 126 81 18 (48) 141

2018 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Aromatic P2F -$/ton 110 87 129 151 143

Aromatic P2F -$/bbl 14.5 11.6 16.9 20.2 18.8

GIM contribution*** 1.7 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.0

Remark: TOL –ULG95 Q1/19 = 41 $/ton, Q4/18 = 73 $/ton, Q1/18 = 57 $/ton

Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production

Q1/19 Q4/18 Q1/18

92% 94% 90%

(Unit : KTon)

Q1/19 Market

*** including LAB contribution since 25 Feb 2016** PX price = CFP Taiwan, BZ price = FOB Korea

Q1/19 Performance126 109 131 134 115

6359

57 67 60TL

BZ

PX

(US$/Ton) PX-ULG95

BZ-ULG952018 2019

- Slightly soften PX spread pressured by increasing supply after Petro Rabigh (1.3 MTA) and Nghi Son (0.7 MTA) run at full capacity and new supply from China (0.8 MTA)

- Weak BZ spread due to ample supply in China

Aromatics/LAB

Q1/19: Slightly Soften Aromatics Contribution pressured by Lower PX Spread

+ Weak feedstock cost (gasoline & naphtha) limit downside

2018

FY18

121

15.9

1.8

- Slightly lower utilization rate due to soften product margins

500

245

*As of 10 May 19

-17--17-

TLB’s Sales (excluding byproduct) & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)

482 510 545 518469 457 436 425 390

339 364423 384

325280 267 270

(58) (51) (58) (75) (81)(44) (43) (40) (39) (48)

(9) (1)(48) (49) (22) (13) (10)

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Lube Base Oil

2018 2019 2018

$/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD* FY18

500SN-HSFO 512 481 417 376 330 270 447

BITUMEN-HSFO (56) (67) (41) (19) (40) (8) (46)

2018 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

P2F -$/ton 105 97 66 73 59

P2F -$/bbl 16.0 14.8 9.9 11.1 9.0

GIM contribution 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2

Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production

Q1/19 Q4/18 Q1/18

89% 86% 89%

500SN-HSFO

Bitumen-HSFO

(Unit : KTon)

Q1/19 Performance

Bitumen

Specialty

Base Oil

% Base Oil & Specialty Sales Volume

Q1/19 Market

231

149

440

(US$/Ton)

2018 2019

Q1/19: Soften Contribution as Lower Lube Base Spread

+ Higher utilization rate at 89%

2018

FY18

84

12.8

0.5

− Soften lube spread pressured by new base oil supply group 2,3 from China (1.26 MTA)

61 62 48 60 5939 39 34 38 36

117 11680

104 98

21% 18% 21%

14%13%

14%

Q1/19 Q4/18 Q1/18Base Oil Specialty

*As of 10 May 19

− Soften bitumen spread due to low demand during winter

-18--18-Power

Q1/19 Power Sector Performance…Growing Contribution to the Group

Power Business Sector

Equity holding in

GPSC ****SPP

***TOP shareholding 24.29% (8.91% via TOP and 20.79% via TP)GPSC is an associate company of TOP. Equity method is applied to recognize share of profit. (EBITDA calculation excludes profit sharing from GPSC)

SPP (TP+TOP SPP)Equity income from GPSC

(1) 100% of TP and TOP SPP

Performance Highlight

74% 100%

+ Higher contribution from GPSC’s profit sharing due to consolidating net profit from GLOW (69.11%) since 14 March 2019

368 353 348 299 253

1,387224 255 218 118 229

816

592 608 566417

482

2,183

Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 FY/18

3) consolidated EBITDA of TP and TOP SPP

4) Net profit of 74% TP + 100 % TOP SPP + 24.29% profit sharing from GPSC

Power & Steam Sales

EBITDA & Net Profit

Electricity(1)

(GWh)

Steam(1)

(kton)

1,041 1,084 1,129 1,079 1,043

4,333

Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 FY/18

EBITDA(THB million)

Net Profit(THB million)

3)

4)

13%

622 643 647 632 606

2,544

665 678 683 628 575

2,653

-19--19-

Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash CostFinancial

5.26.7

4.75.7

3.9 3.0

6.87.6

4.3

6.2

(3.6)

5.7

2016 2017 2018 Q1/18 Q4/18 Q1/19

1.4 1.2 1.4 1.11.9

1.2

0.50.4

0.40.3

0.4

0.5

1.91.6

1.81.4

2.3

1.7

2016 2017 2018 Q1/18 Q4/18 Q1/19

Operating Cost Interest Expense

(Unit: US$/bbl)

Group’s Cash Cost

(Unit: US$/bbl)

Market GIM Accounting GIM (Market GIM + Stock G/L)

Market GRM Accounting GRM (Market GRM + Stock G/L)

Gross Integrated Margin

(Unit: US$/bbl)

(excl. one-time non-operating item)

(net)

1.8 1.6 1.9 1.52.4

1.7

0.5 0.5 0.50.4

0.50.6

2.3 2.1 2.41.9

2.9 2.3

2016 2017 2018 Q1/18 Q4/18 Q1/19

Operating Cost Interest Expense

(Unit: US$/bbl)

(excl. one-time non-operating item)

(net)

Higher group cash cost in 2016 mainly from MTA cost in TLB ~198 MB

Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost

5.2 6.7 6.6

7.5 4.6 4.2 5.7 6.1

3.9

(3.5)

3.0

5.7

1.7

1.7 1.6 1.6

1.8 1.8

1.7 1.7

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.0 0.7

0.7 0.8 0.8

0.5 0.5

0.7 0.7

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.2 7.5

9.1

7.58.2

6.55.2

9.1 9.9

6.6

8.6

(0.9)

7.9

2016 2017 2018 Q1/18 Q4/18 Q1/19

Refinery Aromatics+LAB Lube Base

Higher refinery cash cost in 2018 mainly from MTA CDU-1 cost ~230 MB

-20--20-Performance Breakdown

Q1/19: Performance Breakdown by Business Unit

(1) U-rate of 5 Oil & Chemical Tankers (total capacity: 22,800 DWT, acquired 1 LPG vessel in Dec 18 which start operate in Jan 19 onwards)(2) U-rate of TET Q1/19 includes SAPTHIP 97% and UBE 97%, Q4/18 includes SAPTHIP 96% and UBE 98%, Q1/18 includes SAPTHIP 87% and UBE 108%(3) Includes 75% of LAB net profit, Q1/19 = (64) MB, Q4/18 = (106) MB, Q1/18 = 115 MB(4) Apply on an equity accounted basis in the consolidated financial statement. (GPSC has been held by TOP 8.9% and TP 20.8%,TP has been held by TOP 74% & TOP SPP has

been held by TOP 100%)

Q1/19 2,968 774 56 44 (2) 16 482 4,408

Q4/18 (6,087) 747 145 (14) (65) 7 417 (4,812)

Q1/18 3,747 751 417 38 17 27 592 5,608

116%

92% 89%

123%

95% 97%115%

94%86%

104%95% 97%

Q1/19

Q4/18

Refinery Aromatic Lube Solvents Marine Ethanol Power

Consolidated Net Profit

Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB)

(1) (2)

(3) (4)

(3)

(3)

(4)

(4)

Key Points• Refinery: continued high run rate to

capture strong demand in domestic and Indochina market

• Aromatic/LAB: stable run rate to capture ongoing decent margins

• Lube: declined contribution pressured by new base oil supply from China

• Power: higher contribution mainly from higher GPSC’s profit sharing

• Solvents: higher contribution due to higher sale gross margins following rising crude price

• Marine: improved contribution supported by higher TMS’s utilization and lower operating cost

• Ethanol: higher contribution due to higher sales volume and profit sharing from UBE

-21--21-

(Unit : million THB)

Q1/19 Q4/18 QoQ Q1/18 YoY

Sales Revenue 91,626 100,150 (8,524)(A)

91,536 90

Hedging Gain / (Loss) (166) (852) 686 (B)

102 (268)

EBITDA 6,889 (3,582) 10,471 (C)

7,359 (470)

EBITDA excl. Stock G/(L) & Reversal of

NRV/(NRV) 3,102 4,942 (1,840)

(D) 7,087 (3,985)

Financial Charges (1,215) (1,078) (137)(E)

(750) (465)

FX G/(L) & CCS 652 (233) 885 (F)

1,470 (818)

(Tax Expense)/reversal of income tax (1,000) 1,315 (2,315) (1,209) 209

Net Profit / (Loss) 4,408 (4,812) 9,220 5,608 (1,200)

EPS (THB/Share) 2.16 (2.36) 4.52 2.75 (0.59)

Stock G/(L) & Reversal of NRV 3,787 (8,524) 12,311 272 3,515

Net Profit/ (Loss) excl. Stock G/(L) and

Reversal of NRV/(NRV)621 3,712 (3,091) 5,336 (4,715)

THB/US$ - average 31.79 32.99 (1.20) 31.71 0.08

THB/US$ - ending 31.98 32.61 (0.63) 31.41 0.57

Effective Tax Rate (%) 18% N/A N/A 17% 1%

Financial

Q1/19 TOP Group Consolidated P&L

(A) Decrease overall sales volume and product prices following lower quarterly average crude price

(B) Less commodity hedging loss in Q1/19

(C) Mainly from stock gain 2.7 $/bbl in Q1/19 compared with stock loss (7.5) $/bbl in Q4/18

(D) Mainly due to soften Mkt GIM 5.2 $/bbl in Q1/19 from 6.5 $/bbl in Q4/18

(E) Mainly from new bond 1,000 M$ in Nov’18 to support funding plan for CFP

(F) Mainly from realized gain on AP/AR & unrealized gain on USD debt from THB appreciated

QoQ analysis

(1) Including net F/X risk management (foreign currency assets and liabilities) gain/ (loss) in Q1/19, Q4/18 and Q1/18 334, (544) and 1,347 MB, respectively

(2) In Q1/19, Q4/18 and Q1/18 stock gain/(loss) = 2,473, (7,211) , and 381 MB. And, In Q1/19, the reversal of NRV was recorded at 1,314 MB (consisted of crude NRV 769 MB and product NRV 545 MB), in Q4/18 NRV was recorded at 1,314 MB (consisted of crude NRV 769 MB and product NRV 545 MB), and in Q1/18 NRV was recorded at 110 MB which is wholly crude NRV

(1)

(2)

-22--22-

Q1/19 TOP Group Consolidated Cash FlowFinancial

Q1/19 Q1/18

Operating Cash Flow 3,891 7,636

Net income & non-cash adj. 6,459 7,157

Change in working capital (2,568) 479

Beginning

Cash 34,041

S/T investment 73,221

Investment held as Available for sale

361

107,623

+

+ =

+

Ending

40,218

61,375

380

101,973 6)

Effect of FX changes

(425)

+

Changes

6,602

(11,846) 4)

19 5)

Operating Cash Flow

Financing

(Unit: Million THB)

(Unit: Million THB)

Free Cash Flow 11,769 10,551

Q1/19 Q1/18

Investments 7,878 2,915

ST investments 11,309 4,352

Available for sale - (680)

CAPEX (PP&E) & other (3,431)1)

(968)

Financing (5,186) 7,283

Loans proceeding 2,2532)

10,346

Loans repayment (6,032)3)

(1,685)

Interest (1,404) (1,377)

Dividend (3) -

Investments

6) FCD = 56,708 MB (1,792 MUSD)

1)TOP 2,386 MB, TPX 875MB

2) LABIX 970, SAPTHIP 495, TSTH 590 ,TSV 150, and TMS 5 MB3) TOP 3,000 , TM 75, LABIX 1,200, TLB 540, TSTH 810, TSV 257, SAPTHIP 150 MB

Ending Cash incl. S/T Investment & AFS

Non-cash transaction : 4) Unrealized loss from FCD 488MB5) MTM EBIF 19MB in Q1/19

-23--23-

Cost of Debt

TOP Group (Net***) 2.43%

TOP Group (Gross) 4.83%

Financial

Q1/19 TOP Group Strong Financial Position & Financial Ratios

103,870 105,845

57,481 64,793

107,262 101,593

126,473 130,939

107,060

0

102,026

35,080 39,266

0.0 0.0

31-Dec-18 31-Mar-19

(1) Including current portion of Long-Term Debt

Financial Ratios

Net Debt / adj. EBITDA** Net Debt / Equity

Statements of Financial Position

(Unit: million THB)

Trade Payable/ Others

Interest Bearing Debt

Equities

CurrentAssets

Non-CurrentAssets

Cash & ST investment

31 Dec 18

** Annualized EBITDA (excl stock gain/loss & Reversal of NRV/(NRV))

ROE 8.0 % 7.0 %

ROIC 9.2 % 8.3 %

*

* Based on actual performance in the past 12 months

*

272,231

(1)

BBB+Stable Outlook

Baa1Stable Outlook

AA- (tha)Stable Outlook

0.0 0.0

31-Dec-18 31-Mar-19

2)

(2) Including investment held as available for sale 31 Dec 18 = 361 MB, 31 Mar 19 = 380 MB

Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Mar 19

Net Debt

433 million THB

(US$ 14 million

equivalence)

*** As of 31 Mar 19 Net Debt 433 MB or 14 M$

102,026 million THB

(US$ 3,190 million

equivalence)

Total IBD

*** ***

(4)

(4) Due to yield enhancement

Interest Rate Portion

Float 11%

Fixed 89%

TOP avg.debt life 14.00 Yrs

Value (Million) Portion

US$ Bond & US$ Loan(3)

USD 1,991 63%

THB Bond THB 20,500 20%

THB Loan THB 16,212 17%(3) Including VND Loan equivalent to USD

268,613

31 Mar 19

As at 29 Mar 19 (31.98 THB/US$)



-24--24-

2H/19 MARKET OUTLOOK

• Crude Oil

• Petroleum Products

• Aromatics

• Base Oil & Bitumen

• Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)

CRUDE OIL

-26-Crude Oil

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19

$/BBL

Dubai Price Movement

Increasing Oil Supply to Balance Iran and Venezuela Output Loss

Key Highlights in 2H-2019*Q2TD’19 (as of 10 May): $70.4/BBL

1st OPEC-led

Supply Cut

Deal Extension

Hurricane

Harvey & Irma

•Concern of Tighten Supply from Iran and Venezuela amid Increasing Non-OPEC Production

• Rising U.S. Production to Impact OPEC Production Decision

1

2

OPEC-led Cut

Deal Started

Supply Outage

in Libya

U.S.-China Trade War Conflict

OPEC-led Cut

Deal Extended until the Dec-18

Keystone &

Forties Pipeline

leakage

U.S. Re-imposed

Sanctions on Iran

Concern Over Supply Loss in Iran

High OPEC

and Non-OPEC output

OPEC & Non-OPEC

Pledged to

Increase Production

Falling Risk Assets

as FED raised rates

OPEC Cut

Steeper than Deal

Supply Loss

from Iran and

Venezuela on

U.S. Sanction

-27-Crude Oil

1 Concern of Tighten Supply from Iran and Venezuela amid Increasing Non-OPEC Production

CCurrent OECD Crude Stock at 5-Year AverageC

OECD Crude Oil Inventory

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 Avg 14-18

MBBL

Source : IEA (Apr’19)

OPEC Cut with Steeper Than Deal in 1H-2019

Source : Reuter’s Poll (Apr’19), OPEC (Apr’19) and TOP’s Estimate

MBD

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19

OPEC-11 Production

*OPEC Target

25.9 MBD

*OPEC-11 excludes Qatar (left OPEC during early Jan’19), Venezuela, Iran, and

Libya from production cut deal

A

OPECDecision in

Meeting 25-26 Jun’19

Growing Oil Supply from Non-OPEC in 2H-19D

Source : IEA (Apr’19)

MBD

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19

Non-OPEC Crude Oil Supply2H-19

(+1.4 MBD YoY)

Lower Iran & Venezuela Supply on U.S. SanctionB

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Venezuelan Crude Export Iranian Crude Export

MBD

Iranian & Venezuelan Crude Oil Export

U.S. Sanction on Venezuelan Oil

Source : Reuters (Apr’19)

Venezuela(-1.0 MBD YoY)

Aggressive Political Risk

U.S. Financial Sanction 2H-19 Iran

(-0.5 MBD YoY)

U.S. Waiver Announcement for 8 Countries

U.S. Ending Sanctions Waivers Oct’18

Baseline

for Cut

-28-Crude Oil

2 Rising U.S. Production to Impact OPEC Production Decision

C Rising U.S. Pipeline Outflow Capacity in 2H-2019BSurging U.S. Crude Output on Price RecoveryA

Balancing Market in Q4 in case of OPEC Cut RunD

Source : IEA (Apr’19), OPEC (Apr’19) and TOP’s Estimate

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19

Gray Oak Cactus II EPIC pipeline

MBD

Source : Reuters (Apr’19)

U.S. Crude Oil Pipeline Capacity

2H-19 (+0.6 MBD YoY)

Existing Pipeline

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19

2H-19 Balance:

Demand: 101.2 MBD (+1.5 MBD YoY)

Supply: 101.4 MBD (+0.0 MBD YoY)

Global Demand/Supply BalanceMBD

Surplus

DeficitCase 2

Case 1

Two Possible Cases on OPEC Production Cut

Source : Reuter’s Poll (Apr’19), OPEC (Apr’19) and TOP’s Estimate

2021222324252627282930


OPEC-11 Production

*OPEC Target

25.9 MBD

Case 1: OPEC Increase

Run to Baseline

Case 2 : OPEC

Increase Run with

Production Cut

Lower Level than

Previous Deal

C

Source : EIA (Apr’19)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19

YoY Growth [RHS] Production (LHS) Forecast

U.S. Crude Oil Production MBDMBD

2H-19 (+1.1 MBD

YoY)

MBD

*OPEC-11 excludes Qatar (left OPEC during early Jan’19), Venezuela, Iran, and

Libya from production cut dealOct’18

Baseline

for Cut

-29-Crude Oil

Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

Note: Update as of 10 May 19

AVG. 2016: 2.65

AVG. 2017: 1.72

Murban OSP Premium over Dubai

1H-19: Steady low OSP on ample supply(-) High US production/export

(-) Steady low Saudi OSP to secure market share(-) New ADNOC competitive grade

(-) Weak light/middle distillate crack(+) OPEC production cuts(+) Venezuela’s crude sanction

Y2019Q1 : 1.77Q2 : 2.10 (Act. Apr)

2H-19: Higher OSP on stronger product

crack, preparing for IMO(+) Stronger middle distillate crack and ahead of

new IMO

(+) End of Iranian waiving sanction (from 2 May)(+) OPEC to control production

(-) More US exports on new pipeline capacity

AVG. 2015: 1.61

AVG. 2018: 3.15

Stronger Murban OSP in 2H-19 (vs 1H-19), Supported by Stronger Light /Middle Distillate Crack before IMO

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

-31-

Improving Middle Distillate Cracks from Firm Seasonal and Bunker Demand for IMO 2020

7.7

5.0 5.2

6.76.1 6.4 6.4

8.27.2 7.1 7

6.1 6.1

4.2

5.9

3.2 3.7

Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Y2016 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Y2017 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Y2018 Q1-19 Q2TD-19*

Key Highlights in 2H-2019

Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL)

Gasoline Cracks Supported by Peak Driving Season in Q3, Then Eased by Additional Supply in Q4

1

Improving Refining Margins from Rising Middle Distillate Crack Outweighing Weak Gasoline Market

($/BBL) Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 2018 Q1-19Q2TD-

19*

ULG95-DB

13.6 12.2 11.5 4.9 10.6 3.7 8.6

JET-DB 16.0 15.3 14.5 15.7 15.4 13.0 11.9

GO-DB 14.7 14.6 14.3 15.0 14.7 12.8 12.3

HSFO-DB

(4.9) (4.5) (2.5) 1.3 (2.6) (0.1) (2.8)

2

Refinery

Remarks: *Q2TD-19 as of 10 May 19

Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition

3

-32-

Expectation of Higher Chinese Export QuotasD

Declining Stock to 5-year Average LevelA

1

Refinery

Strong U.S. Demand during Summer

Gasoline Cracks Supported by Peak Driving Season in Q3, Then Eased by Additional Supply in Q4

Source : Reuters (May’19)

Additional Supply Pressured the MarketC

Source : FGE Energy (Apr’19)

B

200

220

240

260

280

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec5yr-range 2018 2019 avg 14-18

Global Gasoline InventoryMBBL

U.S. Gasoline Demand

Source : EIA STEO (May’19)

MBD 2H-19: 9.3 MBD (+0.1 MBD vs 1H-19)

8.2

8.6

9.0

9.4

9.8

10.2

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19

KBD Chinese Gasoline Export

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19

AVG 2018: 298 KBD

Global Gasoline Supply

Source : Energy Aspects (Apr’19), TOP Estimates

MBD 2H-19 : 25.8 MBD (+0.5 MBD vs 1H-19)

23

24

25

26

27


Hengli (400 KBD)

in Jun LE 1H-19: 284 KBD

LE 2H-19: 333 KBD

Jizan (400 KBD)

in Nov

-33-

Middle Distillate Stock at 5-year Average Level

Firm Seasonal Demand with IMO 2020 SupportiveChance of Colder Winter than Previous YearA

Improving Middle Distillate Cracks from Firm Seasonal and Bunker Demand for IMO 2020

2

Refinery

B

Steady-to-Lower Exports from ChinaC

Global Middle Distillate DemandMBD

Source : FGE Energy (Apr’19), Energy Aspects (Apr’19)

33

34

35

36

37

38

39


2H-19: 37.4 MBD (+1.2 MBD vs 1H-19)

Percent of La Niña Development

37%

7%

56%Neutral

La Niña

El Niño

2H’19

20%

0%80%

2H’18

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric, NOAA (Apr’19)

MMBL

Source : Reuters (May’19)

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5yr-range 2018 2019 avg 14-18

Global Middle Distillate Inventory

D

Source : FGE Energy (Apr’19)

KBD Chinese Middle Distillate Export

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19

AVG 2018: 695 KBD

LE 1H-19: 835 KBD

LE 2H-19: 710 KBD

-34-Refinery

Note: Adjusted capacity based on start-up period (effective additional capacity)

Asia Pacific and Middle East Effective CDU Addition VS Additional Demand

Source : FACTs Semi Annual Reports, Fall 2018, Reuters (Oct’18) and TOP’s estimate

3 Demand Growth Outpacing Supply Addition

3150

517

1386 1431

875

458 562

5

762 775970

721 770632

295595

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

-500

500

1500

2500

3500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

KBD

AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East China Other AP

Japan India Vietnam Teapot

Thailand Net Addition Operating Rate [RHS]

Refinery Country Start-up CDU (KBD)

Rapid Malaysia Q2’19 Q3’19 300

Hengli China Q3’19 Q2’19 400

Jizan Saudi Arabia Q4’19 400

Rongsheng China Q3’20 400

Operating Rate, %

YoY Y2016(B) Y2017(B) Y2018(B)1Q2019(B)

VS 1Q2018

Y2019FVS 2018

Mogas (A) +9.8% +3.7% +3.3% +3.4%Steady growth due to low oil

price

Jet/Kero +6.8% +4.4% +5.4% +2.2%

Softer growth due to weaker

tourism and limited airport

capacity

Diesel (A) +3.1% +2.9% +1.5% +1.6%Steady growth following

economic expansion

Total +5.4% +3.4% +2.6% +2.2%

GDP +3.2%(C) +4.0%(C) +4.1%(C) +3.4%(D) +3.8%(D)

Domestic

Thailand Oil Demand Growth

Thailand Oil Demand Growth

Remarks: (A) Mogas and Diesel includes Ethanol and Biodiesel, respectively

(B) DOEB

(C) NESDB

(D) BOT’s Estimation (Apr’19)

AROMATICS

-37-

($/TON) Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 2018 Q1-19 Q2TD-19*

PX-

ULG95304 268 447 529 387 508 290

BZ-

ULG95231 126 127 81 141 18 -48


Aromatics Market

Weaker PX Market on Concerns of New Capacity in China

Weak BZ Market due to Concerns of New Capacity amid High Stock in China

1

2

332315341280

317 313273258260276 304

268

447

529

387

508

290

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Y2

01

6

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Y2

01

7

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Y2

01

8

Q1

-19

Q2

TD

-19

*

PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 ($/TON)

156138174185163

343

225195212

245 231

12612781

141

18

-48

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Y2

01

6

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Y2

01

7

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Y2

01

8

Q1

-19

Q2

TD

-19

*

BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 ($/TON)

Pressured PX and BZ Markets due to Concerns of New Capacity in China


Aromatics

-38-

0.9 0.91.5

2.1 1.8

3.6

0

2

4

6

Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 1H-19 2H-19

Effective Cap. from Prev. Yr Heng Li 1 Sinopec Hainan 2

Zhejiang PC 1 Heng Li 2 Sinochem Hongrun

Uncertainty Total

Aromatics

Weaker PX market on Concerns of New Capacity in China

Source: WM Chemicals (Feb’19) and TOP’s Estimate

1

Expect PTA Opt. Rate in 2H-19 to be Higher than 2017-18

Higher Capacity Addition to Pressure in 2H-19A

C D

Lower PX Maintenance in 2H-19 to Pressure MarketB

Lower Opt. Rate from Lower Demand Growth than Cap. Add.

11 12 13 14

2427

10 10 11 11

20 21

05

1015202530

Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 1H-19 2H-19

PX Capacity PX Demand

AP/ME PX Effective Capacity vs DemandMil TON

Cap. Add. : +11.8%

Dem. Growth : +3.7%

D High Supply in 2H-19 to Pressure the Market

Note: the number may not sum to total due to rounding

Fuhaichuang 1

0.8MTA in Jan

AP/ME Effective PX Capacity Addition

Fuhaichuang 2

0.8MTA in Apr

Mil TON

Hainan

0.8MTA

Zhejiang

0.8MTA

Heng Li 1

2.25MTA

Hongrun

0.8MTA

Heng Li 2

2.25MTA

Chinese PTA Operating Rate

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19

2018 2017 2019

Percentage

069

274

394

280199

14272 107

188119

51

0

200

400

600

Ja

n-1

9

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-1

9

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

n-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oct-

19

No

v-1

9

De

c-1

9

Japan China Taiwan South Korea

Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam

India Total 2018

K TONAsian PX Plant Turnaround in 2019

Operating Rate 2019: 83.2%

-39-

0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.81.1

0

1

2

3

Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 1H-19 2H-19

Effective Cap. from Prev. Yr Heng Li 1 Sinopec Hainan 2

Zhejiang PC 1 Heng Li 2 Sinochem Hongrun

Uncertainty Total

Hongrun

0.2MTA

AromaticsWeak BZ Market due to Concerns of New Capacityamid High Stock in China2

SM Capacity Addition to Support BZ Demand in 2H-19

A

C

0.07 0.07 0.09

0.270.14

0.36

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 1H-19 2H-19

Effective Capacity from 2018 2019 Effective Capacity

Mil TON

Zhejiang 1.2MTAIn Nov

High BZ Stock in East China to Pressure Import Interest

138

6993

178

231

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ja

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Ja

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

Ja

n-1

7

Ju

l-17

Ja

n-1

8

Ju

l-18

Ja

n-1

9

BZ Stock in East China 2015 Average 2016 Average

2017 Average 2018 Average 2019 Average

KTONBZ Stock in East China

Higher Capacity Addition in 2H-19

High Supply to Pressure Sentiment in the Market

10 10 11 11

21 22

8 8 9 8

1617

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 1H-19 2H-19

BZ Capacity BZ Demand

AP/ME BZ Effective Capacity vs DemandMil TON

Cap. Add. : +4.6%

Dem. Growth : +4.9%

Note: the number may not sum to total due to rounding

B

D

Fuhaichuang 1

0.12MTA in Jan

AP/ME Effective BZ Capacity Addition

Fuhaichuang 2

0.12MTA in Apr

Mil TON

Hainan

0.16MTA

Zhejiang

0.65KTA

Heng Li 1

0.65MTA

Heng Li 2

0.65MTA

Source: WM Chemicals (Feb’19), IHS (Feb’19) and TOP’s Estimate

AP/ME SM Capacity Addition

Citic GuoanChemical

200KTAIn Jul

Operating Rate 2019: 81.5%

BASE OIL & BITUMEN

-41-

($/TON) Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 2018 Q1-19Q2TD-

19*

500SN-HSFO

512 482 417 376 447 330 270

Higher Supply on New Supply Addition and Lower Plant Maintenance

Slow Demand during Rainy Season

Base Oil & Bitumen


AP Base Oil Effective Capacity Addition

427409443367412 451

556528458498 512482

417376447

330270

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Y2

01

6

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Y2

01

7

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Y2

01

8

Q1

-19

Q2

TD

-19

*

Soft Base Oil Market on High Supply in Asia

1500SN – HSFO ($/TON)


1

2

AP Plant Maintenance

0.40.2

0.00.3

0.9

1.4

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1H-17 2H-17 1H-18 2H-18 1H-19 2H-19

Mil TON Group 3 Group 2 Group 1 Net Capacity

1.2

0.9 0.9

0.60.7

0.3

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4

1H-17 2H-17 1H-18 2H-18 1H-19 2H-19

Mil TON Group 3 Group 2 Group 1 Net Capacity

2

Source: Argus (May’19)and TOP’s Estimate

-42-Base Oil & Bitumen

($/TON) Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 2018 Q1-19Q2TD-

19*

Bitumen-

HSFO-56 -67 -41 -19 -46 -40 -8

-7

-48 -61

-80 -49

-13 -38 -29

-45 -31

-56 -67 -41

-19 -46 -40

-8

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Y2

01

6

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Y2

01

7

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Y2

01

8

Q1

-19

Q2

TD

-19

*

Bitumen-HSFO ($/TON)


Slow demand during 2H-19 1

Slow Demand during Rainy Season in Asia

Improved Bitumen Demand in Thailand from Higher Infrastructure Budget in 2019

1

Soft Bitumen Market on Slow Demand in Asia

Higher Bitumen Demand in 20192


2

Source: Petrosil (Apr’19), Bureau of maintenance (Mar’19)

89 88 8274

104

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1H

-17

2H

-17

1H

-18

2H

-18

1H

-19

Bitumen Domestic SalesKton/month

EEC: 5 Highways(35,000 Mil Baht)

Bangyai- Karnchanaburi(55,620 Mil Baht)

0

100

200

300

1H-17 2H-17 1H-18 2H-18 1H-19

Kton/month Import Bitumen Volume

Indonesia India Vietnam

Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)

-44-

30

40

50

60

70

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

LAB

Soft Demand in 2H-2019 due to Monsoon Season and Lower AP/ME LAB Plants Maintenance


LAB Market

Source: ICIS Publication (2016-2019), India Customs (Jan-19), TOP’s Estimate

LAB Spread* ($/TON)

($/TON) Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 2018 Q1-19Q2TD-

19*

LAB

Spread529 566 562 640 574 615 620

635627619543

606539

603534522550 529566562

640574

615620

Q1

-16

Q2

-16

Q3

-16

Q4

-16

Y2

01

6

Q1

-17

Q2

-17

Q3

-17

Q4

-17

Y2

01

7

Q1

-18

Q2

-18

Q3

-18

Q4

-18

Y2

01

8

Q1

-19

Q2

TD

-19

**

**Q2TD-19 as of 10 May 19

Remarks: *Estimated indicator

Soft Demand in Q3 as Rainy Season Pressure Detergent Demand

Lower AP/ME LAB Plants Maintenance

1

2

2018 India LAB Import VolumeK TON

0

50

100

150

200

250

1H 2018 2H 2018 1H 2019 2H 2019

Saudi Arabia

Egypt

Taiwan

South Korea

Japan

India

China

KTA AP/ME Effective Maintenance/Closure***

***Temporary

CONCLUSION

-46-Conclusion

2H-2019 Market Outlook Conclusion(vs. 1H-2019)

Crude Oil

Refinery

Lube Base

LAB

Aromatics

Improving Refining Margins Supported by Strong Middle Distillate Demand Outpacing Weak Gasoline Market

Increasing Oil Supply to Balance Iran and Venezuela Output Loss

Soft LAB Market Pressured by Monsoon Season and Lower Maintenance Level

Pressured PX and BZ Markets due to Concerns of New Capacity in China

Soft Base Oil Market on High Supply Addition in AsiaSoft Bitumen Market on Slow Demand

-47--47-

Thank You

Any queries, please contact:

at email: [email protected]

Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961

Fax: 662-797-2976

-48--48-

APPENDIX

• Strategic Investment Plan

• 2018 Dividend Payment

• Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

• CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME

• World GRM / Inventories

• Thailand petroleum demand by products

-49--Use only for KM Session- -49-

Strategic Investment Plan Approved by Board of Directors CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million)

Notes: Excluding approximately 40 M$/year for annual maintenanceUpdated as of April 2019

Project2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Reliability, Efficiency and Flexibility Improvement 46 17 2

Infrastructure Improvement

- Jetty 7&8 / Improvement 78 5 0

- Office Relocation & New Crude Tank 30 16 0

- Site office preparation for fire water & fire water improvement 23 12 0

- New Bangphra Raw Water Line 4 15 8

Other Investments ( i.e. Digital Transformation, Benzene derivatives-LAB license fee ) 28 30 2

Total Ongoing CAPEX 209 95 12

CFP project * 1,280 1,788 875 624 (606)

Total CAPEX (including CFP) 1,489 1,883 887 624 (606)

Planned capital investment

* CAPEX of CFP Project including the disposal of asset to transfer ownership in the Energy Recovery Unit (ERU) which is a part of the CFP Project

CAPEX

-50--50-

7.82

9.198.66

9.40

0.11

5.91

4.39

7.28

6.04

4.57

-2.03

5.97

10.40

12.18

4.97

FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 FY/07 FY/08 FY/09 FY/10 FY/11 FY/12 FY/13 FY/14 FY/15 FY/16 FY/17 FY/18

Annual DPS (Baht/share)

1.80 3.50 3.50 4.50 2.75 2.55 2.00 3.30 2.70 2.30 1.16 2.70 4.50 5.25 2.65

DividendPayout

23% 38% 40% 48% n.a. 43% 45% 45% 45% 50% n.a. 45% 43% 43% 53%

Dividend Yield* 4.0% 5.6% 5.6% 6.2% 5.2% 7.1% 4.0% 4.7% 4.2% 3.6% 2.3% 5.0% 6.7% 6.2% 3.1%

Avg TOP price 44.7 63.0 62.7 72.7 53.3 35.9 49.9 69.8 65.1 64.6 50.4 53.5 66.7 84.2 86.9

Dividend Policy : Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan

Unit : THB/Share EPSR

1H dividend

* Based on average TOP share price in each year

2H dividend

Year Dividend

2018 Dividend Payment

R Based on restated financial statement

**

** Dividend payout before restated ; 2004 = 25% , 2006 = 43%, 2013 = 45%

Financial

1.50 1.75 1.75 1.05 0.60 1.30 0.50 0.80 0.56 0.90 1.50 1.50 1.50

2.00 2.75

1.00 1.50 1.40

2.00 2.20 1.50 0.60 1.80

3.00 3.75

1.15 1.80

3.50

** **

-51--51-

Thai Oil is able to diversify its type of crude intake and product outputs to maximize demand and margin

Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

27%17%

7%17%

28%29%

28%28%

45% 54%65%

55%

Oman Dubai Murban ArabLight

Short Residue Waxy Gasoline/Distillates

Sources of Crude

• Flexibility in crude intake allows diversification of crude types to source cheaper crude

• Flexibility in product outputs by maximizing middle distillates (jet and diesel) by adjusting production mode to capture domestic demand and price premium

• Maximize Platformate production to capture higher margin on aromatics

• Minimize fuel oil output to avoid lower margin products

Product output

Domestic demand for

petroleum products**

**Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy Thailand

% S = 0.78API = 39.4

% S = 1.43API = 32.0

% S = 2.52API = 31.2

Crude Assays based onTOP configuration*

*** Including Nigeria, Russia and others

% S = 1.97API = 32.8

*Crude yield as per assay in Spiral as of Feb 2016

75%

5%

7%

13%

5%

7%

32%

25%

15%

12%

4%

4%

43%

12%

20%

21%

Middle East

Q1/19

SAUDI ARAMCO

MOPS Jet Kerosene FOB

SG

MOPS Gasoil 0.05% Sulfur

FOB SG

MOPS ULG 95 FOB SG

OthersLPG

PLATFORMATE

GASOLINE

JET

DIESEL

FUEL OIL

Q1/19

***

LONG RESIDUE

MOPS Fuel Oil 180 CST 3.5% Sulfur FOB SG

Reference Price

Crude

Local

Far East

-52--52-

Asia Pacific and Middle East Refinery Addition

Refinery

Sources: FGE Energy Semi Annual Reports, Fall 2018, Reuters (Oct’18) and TOP’s estimate

Note: Adjusted capacity based on start-up period (effective additional capacity)

Start-up period)

CountryNameplate

(KBD)Company

Q1-18 Iran 120Bandar Abbas - PGSOC/1 (Phase 2)

Vietnam 186 Nghi Son

Q3-18 China 100 Petrochina Huabei

Q4-18 India 36 Bharat - Bina

Iran 120Bandar Abbas - PGSOC/1 (Phase 3)

South Korea 82.8 Hyundai Oilbank – Daesan

Q1-19 China 70 CNOOC/Local ZhonghaiDongying

Iraq 66North Refining Company –Baiji

Q2-19 Malaysia 300 Petronas Pengerang (RAPID)

Q4-19 China (Jul’19 > Jun’19) 400 Hengli Petrochemical Dalian

Saudi Arabia 400 Jizan

China 60 Sinochem Quanzhou –Fujian

Iraq 66 North Refining Company –Basra

Kuwait 171 KPC - Mina Al-Ahmadi

Closures

Q2-18 China -75 Local refineries

Q4-19 China -100 Local refineries

Kuwait -112 KPC - Mina Al-Ahmadi

458562

5

762 775970

-1000

0

1000

2000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

KBD

AP & ME Demand Growth Middle East

China Other AP

Japan India

Vietnam Teapot

Net Addition

(Dec’18 > Dec’19)

(Aug’18 > Oct’18)

(Oct’19 > Nov’19)

(May’19 > Aug’19)

(Dec’18 > Dec’19)

-53--53-

Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin

World GRM

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

U.S. Crude Refinery Input

5yr-range 20192018 avg 14-18

MBDSource : EIA

8

9

10

11

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

EU 16 Crude Refinery Input

5yr-range 2019

2018 avg 14-18

MBDSource : EurOil

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Japan Crude Refinery Input

5yr-range 20192018 avg 14-18

MBDSource : METI

Total Capacity: 3.5 MBD 84.78% 65.71% 90.69%

Total Capacity: 18.6 MBD Total Capacity: 15.8 MBD

-8-6-4-202468

101214

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

$/BBL

SINGAPORE GRM

SING CRACK SING HYDRO

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ma

y-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ma

y-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

$/BBL

EU - US Margins

BRENT CRACK BRENT HYDRO WTI CRACK

-54--54-

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

U.S. Crude Stocks (excl. SPR)

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : EIA

Global Crude Oil Inventories

Inventories

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Crude Oil, Cushing, Oklahoma

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : EIA

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Japan, Crude Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : METI

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

510

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

EU 16 Crude and Feedstock Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : EurOil

-55--55-

180

200

220

240

260

280

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

U.S. Gasoline Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : EIA

Global Gasoline Inventories

Inventories

80

100

120

140

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

EU 16 Gasoline Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : EurOil

0

10

20

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Singapore Gasoline Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : IE Singapore

0

5

10

15

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Japan, Gasoline Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : METI

-56--56-

80

100

120

140

160

180

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

U.S. Diesel Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : EIA

Global Middle Distillate Inventories

Inventories

0

10

20

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Singapore Middle Distillate Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18


300

350

400

450

500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

EU 16 Diesel Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : EurOil

0

5

10

15

20

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Japan, Middle Distillate Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : METI

-57--57-

Global Fuel Oil Inventories

Inventories

20

30

40

50

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

U.S. Residual Fuel Oil Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : EIA

0

10

20

30

40

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Singapore Residual Fuel Oil Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18


0

5

10

15

20

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

Japan, Residual Fuel Oil Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : METI

50

60

70

80

90

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

EU 16 Residual Fuel Oil Stocks

5yr-range 2019 2018 avg 14-18

MBBLSource : EurOil

-58--58-

China’s Refined Product Exports

China Export

0

100

200

300

400

500


China’s Gasoline Exports

2016 2017 2018 2019

KBDSource : China Custom

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


China’s Gasoil Exports

2016 2017 2018 2019


0

100

200

300

400

500


China’s Jet/Kero Exports

2016 2017 2018 2019


-59--59-

LPG Demand by Sector

LPG Demand Highlight

• In 1Q2019, LPG demand expanded 1.8% YoY on the back of 14.2% YoY higher demand from petrochemical sector, as a result of higher substitute feedstock price. However, LPG demand was pressured by 2.9% YoY, 2.1% YoY and 1.6% lower consumption in cooking sector, industrial sector and automobile sector, respectively.

Outlook for 2019

• LPG demand is expected to contract 1.1% YoY as consumption in transport sector is expected to decline at 10.0% YoY due to fuel switching. Despite gasoline price being relatively high, LPG station in Thailand is decreasing hence limiting access to fuelling station for LPG vehicle users. Moreover, the registered number of pure LPG vehicle in Thailand during 2010-2017 fell at a rate of 11.2% per year, which means LPG vehicle has become significantly less popular among automobile users over time.

Thailand LPG Demand

Remark : LPG demand includes Petrochemical consumption

Source: EPPO, DOEB (As of May 2019)

Thailand petroleum demand by products

17.30

18.7918.28

12

14

16

18

20


2019 2016 2017 2018KT/Day

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

2018 2019

Cooking Industry Automobile Petrochemical

KT/MTH

Domestic LPG Demand

-60--60-

Domestic Gasoline/Gasohol Demand

Gasoline/Gasohol Demand by Grade

GASOLINE/Gasohol Demand Highlight

• In 1Q2019, Mogas demand rose by 3.4% YoY to an average 31.9 ML/day. Although, the retail price of Mogas is higher, Mogas demand was still supported by consumer preference for using personal cars rather than public transit. Moreover, Mogas demand is also supported by fuel switching from LPG.

• The level of domestic ethanol demand, in 1Q2019, rose significantly by 5.7% YoY from 4.07 mml/day to 4.30 mml/day following the rising of Mogas demand. Additionally, this was also because of higher demand in GSH95, E20, and E85 which increased by 8.1% YoY, 13.6% YoY, and 13.9% YoY, respectively, backed up by increasing in the number of new E20 vehicle, higher E20 gas station, and attractive GSH95-E20 and E20-E85 price gap.

Outlook for 2019

• Mogas consumption is predicted to grow by 3.4% YoY supported by expectation of growing of new passengers cars from return of private consumption. However, the demand growth is limited by higher oil price.

Thailand Gasoline/Gasohol Demand


31.1932.1732.29

22

24

26

28

30

32

34


2019 2016 2017 2018MML/Day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


2018 2019

ULG95 GSH 91 (E10)GSH 95 (E10) GSH E20GSH E85

MML/Day

Source: DOEB (As of May 2019)

-61--61-

Domestic Jet Demand

JET-A1 demand and # of flights

JET Demand Highlight

• In 1Q2019, Jet consumption increased moderately by 2.2% YoY tapering off from last year as tourism sector encountered a slowdown in growth following slower global economy. Overall tourist numbers still remained constant at 0.3% YoY while Chinese tourist numbers faced a drop of 2.1% YoY.

Outlook for 2019

• Jet demand growth is expected to grow by 2.5% YoY as a result of tourist number growth, especially from ASEAN. However, the global economic slowdown has turned China’s GDP growth from hot to lukewarm which leads to its citizen being more cautious about their expenses. Such economic activity results in less traveling activity which is damaging to Thailand as one of the main destinations for Chinese to spend their vacation.

Thailand JET Demand

Source: DOEB, AOT, Department of Tourism (As of May 2019)


12

14

16

18

20

22


2019 2016 2017 2018MML/Day

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

40,00045,00050,00055,00060,00065,00070,00075,00080,00085,000

Ja

n

Ma

y

Se

p

Ja

n

Ma

y

Se

p

Ja

n

Ma

y

Se

p

Ja

n

Ma

y

Se

p

Ja

n

Ma

y

Se

p

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

# of Flights (LHS) JP 1 Demand (RHS)MML/MTHFlights

-62--62-

Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand

NGV Demand

Diesel Demand Highlight

• In 1Q2019, Diesel demand rose by 1.6% YoY as a result of the growth of Thai economy, backed up by 9.5% higher commercial car sales and stable agricultural production activity. However, due to the global economic slowdown, manufacturing production turned to contraction at 1.0% YoY.

Outlook for 2019

• Diesel demand is expected to expand by 1.7% YoYsupported by economic activity. Moreover, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administation) predicts less rainfalls as El Nino is more likely to occur than La Nina.

NGV Demand Highlight

• In 1Q2019, NGV demand fell significantly by 11.9% YoY. The major pressuring factor was the unforgettable hike in retail price. Furthermore, gasoline price dropped significantly in the latter year, making gasoline more popular among consumers.

Thailand Gasoil Demand


52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72


2019 2016 2017 2018MML/Day

5

6

7

8

9

10


2019 2016 2017 2018KT/Day


-63--63-

Domestic Fuel Oil Demand

Thailand Fuel Oil Demand by Sector

Fuel Oil Demand Highlight

• In 1Q2019, Fuel Oil consumption fell by 4.6% YoY, as a result of 78.6% YoY slump in demand for power generation. Moreover, the demand for industrial purpose declined by 13.6% YoY as pollution concern became in the spotlight earlier this year. However, bunker demand remained expandable at 2.6% YoY following import and export activities, although the growth has receded from last year’s outstanding performance due to the lack of special demand from abroad.

Outlook for 2019

• Fuel oil demand is expected to increase by 0.6% YoY, supported by transportation demand from economic activity. However, demand growth will continue to be limited by weak consumption for industrial and electricity purposes.

Thailand Fuel Oil Demand



0

2

4

6

8


2019 2016 2017 2018MML/Day

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


2017 2018

Transportation Industry Electricity Others

MML/Day

-64--64-

Thank You

Any queries, please contact:

at email: [email protected]

Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961

Fax: 662-797-2976

Documents

Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q1/19 · -1-Thai Oil Public Company Limited Q1/19 Opportunity Day Presentation 21 May 2019 Time : 13.00 - 14.00 hrs. Venue : Stock Exchange of Thailand,