Textiles And Technology

Future Frequencies

Derek Woodgate

PREPARED FOR

SEHRF

September, 2008

2

In 1998 you did not see… in everyday life

Online marketplaces, services and new partnerships (i.e. Amazon’s Used Book sales)

Economics / Power of SearchContext based marketing

‘Social Media’User generated content /Social Networks

Portable media devices: Cell phones, camera phones, DVDs, flash drives, mobile media

Economic ascent of India and China / A ‘Global war on Terror’

Internet trading: Web pages, browsers,

PC software and mobile phones

Lifestyles: Telecommuting, body modifications, organics/yoga, and energy crisis

The demise and reinvention of major brands and industries

Emerging Issues (potential for disruption) vs. Trends (already framed_

Frequency 1.0

Changing

society

“You must have chaos within you to create

a dancing star.”

- Frederic Nietzsche

4

Frequency 1.0: Making of a futurist - What is a futurist?

Future world thinking and modeling

STEEP

Discontinuous change

Disruption and wild cards

Re-contextualizing

Connecting disconnects

Preferred future

The future potential business

Studies of the Future - A science

5

Introduction

Brave New World

“We need a glass key to open the

sky”

- Yoko Ono

6

Challenges & Concerns

The Transformation of Humankind

Resource Scarcity

Security and Rights

Disease and Pandemics

The Tech Revolution

Population Explosion

Economic meltdown

Introduction: Brave New World

Future Negative

7

INtroduction: Brave New World

Fear of the future

Two-thirds of US consumers believe the future will be worse for their children and grandchildren (CMI, 2006)

Economic meltdown, resource scarcity, war, climate stability, terrorism and security, population growth, epidemic, civil rights, robotics, food supply, natural disasters, ethics, migration, education….

911, Katrina, avian flu, Enron, Banking bailouts, illegal immigration, cloning, globalization, Iraq War, An inconvenient Truth, school massacres, Tsunami, demise of major corporations and the new economy, tech takeover…

The majority of US population is unaware and uneducated in the future and emerging revolutionary developments that will help tackle these issues.

8

Creating a Positive Future Environment

Experiencing external conditions better / making them fit our goals

Improve self-confidence and sense of purpose

Taking back control and coping with unfamiliar and unexpected

elements of change

Relieving anxiety and stress about the future and the unknown through

knowledge, awareness, integration and engagement

Correlate our experiences to our intentions

Emancipation and liberation (happiness and inner harmony)


Future Positive

9

No “Back to the Future”

Leveraging discontinuous change

Breakthrough ideas

Past restrictions narrow our lens

Find solutions in totally new formats

Re-contextualizing / Expanding potential

Envisioning hostile territories

Recognizing the dialectic of progress

Simplified translations / illustrations


No “Back to the future”

Changing societyChanging society

11

Frequency 1.0

Changing Global Society

“We live differently and pursue new

lifestyles, because we see ourselves as

a new kind of person.”

- Joel Mokyr : The Lever of Riches

12

Frequency 1.0Changing Global Society

New Anchors

Multiple identities and virtual humanity

Living with Dichotomies

Self agency and Self organization

13

Frequency 1.0

Changing Society

Redefining Life stages

Wellness and Life extension - Timeship- linking to our environment

Nanotechnology & Medicine

Biotech ethics & morals - ‘remind ourselves we are human’

14

Frequency 3.0: Brave New World

The Changing Human - Maslow revisitedResource Scarcity

PandemicsPopulation Growth

Health & WelfareWars & TerrorismChanging Human

Globalization Sustainability

Civil Rights, EqualityMigration,

NationalismEducation

Values, Ethics & Morality

Ideologies & ReligionUrban Development

• Multiple personalities• Redefined lifestages• New archetypes• New social realms• Self-agency• Community

15

Frequency 1.0Changing Society

The search for meaningful experiences

- context-sensitive experience that fuses their sensory energy and ability to engage - identity-building, exploration / self-improvement

Human dynamics and emotion modeling

- affective and cognitive perception, feedback and awareness - modeling social interfacing and feedback -creating behavioral identities

My ecological integration

- “Green is the new Black”

- “Green is the new green’

Opportunities to create and contribute

16

Frequency 3.0: Brave New World

Enhancement and augmentation

Affective social software: human touch and senses

Post-gender, queer theory and diversity

Upskilling / socio-emotional modeling

Virtual humans

Transhumanism

The Singularity

17

Frequency 3.0: Brave New WorldLong live life?

18

Frequency 1.0Changing Society

Reinvention of everyday objects and materials

Nanoscale machines

Robotics and AI

Influence of gaming

Security

19


Mobility: Time and Place-shifting

Towards telepresence

Ubiquitous Connectivity

New concepts of space Interactive architecture

Behavioral modeling

Mapping culture: annotated lives

Engaging the environment

20


Blogs InterestCommunities

Sharing

Peer-2-Peer

Aggregation

New social realms

Virtual WorldsChat Circles

21


Digital and media convergence

- Triple/quad delivery (internet, IPTV, VOD, Audio)

Music from fusion of PDA, GameBoy, PC, MIDI

Sensory driven / immersive / responsive/

Integrated with common digital formats

- (e.g. PowerPoint, QuickTime video, Excel, web

browsers) - computer-driven vision-based

Avatar-oriented interaction (text, audio, video)

Artificial intelligence, lasers & holograms

22


Home

- From “net zero” to networked

Enhanced nature & biomimicry

On-demand Transport

Adventure living

- new leisure

23

23

Consumer aspirations and future lifestyle drivers

Changing economic Changing economic

and business and business

environmentenvironment

2

Frequency 2.0Frequency 2.0

Changing Changing

Economic and Economic and

Business Business

EnvironmentEnvironment

“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something,

build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”

- Buckminster Fuller

26

Frequency 2.0Changing Economic and Business Changing Economic and Business EnvironmentEnvironment

End of USA Empire

- less political and economic dominance

- curtailing hyper-capitalism and ideology gap

- new investment opportunities and entrepreneurship

Globalization - BRICs

China overtakes USA - 2020

27

Deceleration of output & demand growth in USA and Japan

Eco trading (energy, water, air pollution)

Pace of personal borrowing to slow, government borrowing grows

Community vs. Commodity

- buying communities (China)

Access vs. Ownership

Parallel marketplaces

- grassroots economics

- potential erosion of margins

Frequency 2.0Changing Economic and Business Changing Economic and Business EnvironmentEnvironment

Collaborative Economy

28

Shift to Conceptual Age from Information Age - Abilities: Design, story, symphony, empathy, play and meaning

Intangible Assets - new value models

Empowerment as driver of future value creation

- Leveraging the ‘empowered individual’

Growth in Creative Class

Frequency 2.0

Changing Economic and Business EnvironmentChanging Economic and Business Environment

29

Frequency 2.0


30

FREQUENCY 2.0 CHANGING GLOBAL SOCIETY

Product Price

Image

Product Vs Price

Commodity Model > Need

External Projection Model > Affiliation

Product

Image

Price

Experience

Inner Projection Model > Experience

Chooser Model > Self-actualization

Convenience

Affordability

Cus

tom

izat

ion

Innovation

Image

Exp

erie

nce

Desirability

The Evolution of the Value Model

31

New roles and relationships for Producers, Intermediaries and Consumers

Integration of economic, behavioral and technology factors

Affective CRM, actionable word-of-mouth insights, VOIP-

based video conferencing

Category Fusion and Transformation of major Industries

On-line - off-line convergence

Collaborative Economy

Frequency 2.0


32

The Wisdom of Crowds

Frequency 2.0


Collaborative Intelligence / Collaborative Intelligence / Collective Mind

The economics of collaboration

Peer aggregated information collection

Collective Content Management

Peer production / Value creation

Changing roles - Participation

Search, sharing, exchange, aggregation,

discovery learning

Shared space - 3D worlds / Tools

Simulation, avatars, interfaces, identity,

visualization

33

Frequency 2.0 Changing Economic and Business Environment Marketplace as a meeting place - Community marketing / data exchange - Changing moment of transaction - Consumer partnership networks - Enriched experience-centric

Social intelligence model - Permission based communication - Personalization, feedback & interaction - Multi-party enhanced knowledge -Third party beacons

Convergence model - Multiple formats of offerings anytime, anywhere. - Converged content delivery

“High-need entity” model - Long-tail economics - Micro-businesses - Bottom-up growth - Emerging industries

New business models

34

Frequency 2.0 Changing Economic and Business Environment

Sustainable Economy

Community sustainability - local economies that are economically viable, environmentally sound and socially responsible.

From footprint to fishprint

Real-life economics - environmental capital

Cooperative and exchange economics

Intelligent systems - essential and proactive computing - resource usage

Emergence engineering

CRESTCPSR

InterconnectionMorino

35

Frequency 2.0

Changing Economic and Business Environment

Emerging businesses

Business Process Outsourcing

• Accenture - moving into Information Management Services

• IBM - business-performance-transformation services

• InnoCentive - matching top scientists to R&D challenges

• HP - corporate services - H.R., finance, et al.

• Second Life - real services in “virtual markets”

• UPS - IT hardware services for Toshiba’s laptop division

36

Changing economic and business environment

2

Beyond carbonBeyond carbon

3

Frequency Four

Open to

change!

“One man’s magic is another man’s engineering.”

- Robert Heinlein

Conserving the “E” in EnergyConserving the “E” in Energy

Nanoscale Science meets the age of Nanoscale Science meets the age of Biological Biological Energy Solutions Energy Solutions

Nano-scale design 1/1,000,000,000 meter

Reinvention of everyday objects and materials

Nanoscale machines

Energy: Enzymes that produce hydrogen or nitrogen

Moving beyond combustion based energy conversion and conventional alternatives


Fuel Cell BatteriesFuel Cell Batteries

Distributed Power

Electric Motors

Hydrocarbon based membranes

Ink-jet printed membranes

Nanoscale catalyst design

High surface area ‘sponges’

Refill vs, recharge

Energy Appliances


Mechanical to Wire / Wireless

Packets of Electricity -(H2 sponges)


Nanoscale design of photovoltaics Nanoscale design of photovoltaics Solar EnergySolar Energy

Nanotube Nanotube TiO2 catalystsTiO2 catalysts

Artificial photosynthesisArtificial photosynthesis

Spray-on solar paintSpray-on solar paint

Ultra sensitive Ultra sensitive nanocrystalsnanocrystals

Thin FilmsThin Films

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