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TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHT LUIS B. TORRES RESEARCH ECONOMIST JAMES P. GAINES CHIEF ECONOMIST WESLEY MILLER RESEARCH ASSOCIATE PAIGE WOODSON RESEARCH INTERN TECHNICAL REPORT 2120 REPORTING NOVEMBER 2018 DATA

Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

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Page 1: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHTLUIS B. TORRES

RESEARCH ECONOMISTJAMES P. GAINESCHIEF ECONOMIST WESLEY MILLER

RESEARCH ASSOCIATE

PAIGE WOODSONRESEARCH INTERN T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T

2 1 2 0 REPORT ING NOVEMBER 2018 DATA

Page 2: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

November 2018 Summary ............................................................................................................... 3

Residential Construction Coincident Indicator .............................................................................. 6

Net Residential Loans ................................................................................................................... 6

Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value ..................................................................... 7

Total Months of Inventory............................................................................................................ 7

Texas Months of Inventory by Price Cohort .................................................................................. 8

Texas Current Months of Inventory by Price Cohort ..................................................................... 8

Texas Existing and New Home Months of Inventory ..................................................................... 9

Major Metros Existing Home Months of Inventory ....................................................................... 9

Major Metros New Home Months of Inventory .......................................................................... 10

Demand ......................................................................................................................................... 10

Total Housing Sales .................................................................................................................... 10

Texas Total Housing Sales by Price Cohort .................................................................................. 11

Major Metros Total Housing Sales .............................................................................................. 11

Texas Homes Days on Market .................................................................................................... 12

Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market ........................................................................... 12

Major Metros New Homes Days on Market ................................................................................ 13

Texas Home Days on Market by Price Cohort ............................................................................. 13

30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield .................................................................... 14

Texas Mortgage Applications ..................................................................................................... 14

Prices ............................................................................................................................................. 15

Real Estate Center Repeat Sales Housing Price Index .................................................................. 15

Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ...................................................................... 15

Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price ........................................................................ 16

Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price............................................................................. 16

Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ................................................................................ 17

Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ....................................................... 17

Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot............................................................ 18

Texas Home Sale Price to List Price ............................................................................................. 18

Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price ................................................................... 19

Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price ........................................................................ 19

Page 3: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

2

About this Report

Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas economies. Texas Housing Insight is a summary of important economic indicators that help discern trends in the Texas housing markets. All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.

This monthly publication provides data and insights on the Texas housing markets. We hope you find them useful. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to [email protected].

Dr. James Gaines, Dr. Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Woodson

Data current as of January 09, 2019

© 2019, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

Page 4: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

3

Note

Due to the ongoing Federal government shutdown, the release of multiple data series has been delayed, and they are not included in this report. The following analysis represents an overview of the Texas housing market based on the available data.

November 2018 Summary

Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000 and rising interest rates continued to weigh on overall activity. Listing inventories inched forward but still remained tight relative to demand. Housing demand showed signs of normalizing, particularly in North Texas, after a multiyear period of unsustainable growth. Steady population and job growth, however, suggest healthy demand for the duration of the current economic expansion. The recent pause in sales activity calmed home-price appreciation, but rising interest rates hindered affordability across the state.

Supply*

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, reached its highest level since 2008 as construction employment and wages continued to elevate. Momentum, however, could moderate as indicated by recent declines in the Texas Residential Construction Leading Index (RCLI). Rising interest rates and sluggish residential construction activity over the past few months weighed on the housing market, but robust economic growth upheld a strong foundation.

Third quarter private bank loan data indicated a slowdown in residential construction investment, led by a decline in large multifamily loan values (buildings consisting of five or more units). Funds poured into this sector starting in 2013 but peaked earlier this year. Loans for one-to-four unit projects inched forward to a cycle-high but remained below 2007 levels. Despite the steady increase in loan volumes for small-unit structures, single-family private construction values flattened through most of the state (although October numbers were revised upward).

Sluggish sales provided some breathing room for the supply of active listings, but the Texas months of inventory (MOI) remained below four months. Around six months of inventory is considered a balanced housing market. A spike of new listings in the beginning of 2018 also supported inventory increases. Listing inventories of single-family homes priced at more than $400,000 exhibited the largest uptick this year, reaching 6.6 MOI after bottoming below 5.8 MOI in February. In the $200,000-$300,000 range, the MOI reached a four-year high of 3.3 months. The market for homes priced less than $200,000 remained exceptionally constrained below three MOI.

* All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

Page 5: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

4

The MOI reached YTD highs in all the major metros but remained well below equilibrium levels. A steady stream of new MLS listings lifted the MOI up to 3.9 and 3.5 months in Houston and San Antonio, respectively. More homes hitting the market combined with a sales slowdown pushed the Austin and Dallas MOI up to 2.8 and 3.2 months, respectively. Fort Worth also noted an increase to 2.5 MOI, but new listings paused as sellers opted to wait out the market correction in North Texas.

Demand

Total housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent after double-digit growth in October, remaining on a flat trajectory. Most of the decline occurred for homes priced above $400,000. Single-family homes priced between $200,000 and $300,000 accounted for 32 percent of closed listings through an MLS, remaining the most active price cohort with a record-high 8,746 monthly sales. The bottom cohort (consisting of homes priced below $200,000) accounted for 37 percent of MLS sales, down from 69 percent in 2011. Nearly half of these transactions occurred outside the major metros.

Year-over-year sales decreased in all of the major metros following the October rebound. Dallas’ correction continued, with sales down 12.8 percent relative to November 2017. Fort Worth’s decline was more modest at 4.3 percent YOY. The North Texas slowdown marks an adjustment after multiple years of explosive growth, where home-price appreciation significantly outpaced earnings. A steady decline in the list-to-sale-price ratio over the past two years corroborates the transition away from hyper activity. This metric, however, stabilized above 0.96 in recent months, corroborating the solid foundation of the DFW housing market. The ratio also balanced in Austin and Houston despite a 0.2 and 2.8 percent decline YOY. San Antonio was the exception, where sales increased 5.2 percent YOY to a record-high 2,920.

Robust economic growth and the healthy labor market held Texas’ average days on market (DOM) below two months as homes continued to sell at a rapid clip. The DOM trended similarly at 60 days in Austin while averaging 57 and 58 days in Houston and San Antonio, respectively. The rate of sales growth continued to calm in North Texas, providing homebuyers some much-needed breathing room. The Dallas DOM elevated to 48 days, nearly two weeks longer than the record-low in September 2015. Fort Worth maintained the lowest DOM at 42 days but trended upward to more sustainable levels.

Interest rates held near a seven-year high due to the strong national economy, but the flattening yield curve drew investors’ attention. The two- and ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields settled at 2.86 and 3.12 percent, respectively—hovering around their lowest spread since the Great Recession. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate rose for the fourth consecutive month to 4.87 percent, weighing on the housing affordability conditions. Higher interest rates disproportionately affected Texas refinance mortgage applications, which slid 38.5 percent since January. Purchase applications, which are less sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations, rebounded with 5.7 percent YOY growth.

Page 6: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

5

Prices

Lagging sales and upticks in inventory moderated home-price gains after substantial post-recession appreciation. The Repeat Sales Indices for the major metros continued to converge following the North Texas boom and Houston’s slowdown after the 2014 oil bust. In Dallas and Fort Worth, the repeat sales indices stabilized at 3.6 and 4.5 percent YOY growth, respectively. Annual price growth decelerated to 3 percent in Austin but picked up 4 percent in San Antonio. Healthy housing activity in Houston pushed the index above 3.4 percent for the second time in two years.

Despite the moderation, the Texas median home price hit a record high at $235,727. The Dallas median increased to $288,468, and San Antonio surpassed $227,750. On the other hand, Fort Worth’s and Houston’s medians ticked down to $233,258 and $237,144, respectively, while the Austin median dropped $9,000 to $304,700. Consumer preferences shifted toward smaller homes to combat affordability constraints, pushing the median price per square foot up across the major metros relative to last year. Until wage growth catches up to home-price appreciation, the market will shift toward higher-density housing in the form of reduced lot and home sizes or toward multifamily units.

Page 7: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

6

Supply

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. November data for the Texas Leading Index are unavailable due to the government shutdown. Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110Ja

n-07

Aug-

07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09

Jul-1

0

Feb-

11

Sep-

11

Apr-

12

Nov-

12

Jun-

13

Jan-

14

Aug-

14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16

Jul-1

7

Feb-

18

Sep-

18

TX Coincident Index US Coincident Index

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1Q07

3Q07

1Q08

3Q08

1Q09

3Q09

1Q10

3Q10

1Q11

3Q11

1Q12

3Q12

1Q13

3Q13

1Q14

3Q14

1Q15

3Q15

1Q16

3Q16

1Q17

3Q17

1Q18

3Q18

1-4 Family Loans

Multifamily Loans

Residential Construction Coincident Indicator (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

Net Residential Loans (Index 1Q07 = 100)

Page 8: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

7

Note: Inflation adjusted. Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Dodge Analytics

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Months of inventory for the United States is estimated using weights for all existing homes and new single-family homes; new nonsingle-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. November data for the U.S. Months of Inventory are unavailable due to the government shutdown. For more information, see Months of Inventory. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Texas

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-

07

Aug-

07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09

Jul-1

0

Feb-

11

Sep-

11

Apr-

12

Nov-

12

Jun-

13

Jan-

14

Aug-

14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16

Jul-1

7

Feb-

18

Sep-

18

United States Texas

Total Months of Inventory (Months)

Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value (Index Jan 2011 = 100)

Page 9: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

8

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

$0-$199,999 $200,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999

$500,000+

2.93.3

4.3

5.2

9.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

$0 - $200K $200K - $300K $300K - $400K $400K - $500K $500K+

Texas Months of Inventory by Price Cohort (Months)

Texas Current Months of Inventory by Price Cohort (November 2018)

Page 10: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

9

Texas Existing and New Home Months of Inventory (Months)

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Major Metros Existing Home Months of Inventory (Months)

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Existing Months of Inventory

New Months of Inventory

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Page 11: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

10

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Demand

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes sold through an MLS; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information see Housing Sales. November data for U.S. Sales are unavailable due to the government shutdown. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-

07

Aug-

07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09

Jul-1

0

Feb-

11

Sep-

11

Apr-

12

Nov-

12

Jun-

13

Jan-

14

Aug-

14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16

Jul-1

7

Feb-

18

Sep-

18

United States Texas

Major Metros New Home Months of Inventory (Months)

Total Housing Sales (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

Page 12: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

11

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

$0-$199,999 $200,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999

$500,000+

55

70

85

100

115

130

145

Jan-

07

Aug-

07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09

Jul-1

0

Feb-

11

Sep-

11

Apr-

12

Nov-

12

Jun-

13

Jan-

14

Aug-

14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16

Jul-1

7

Feb-

18

Sep-

18

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Texas Total Housing Sales by Price Cohort (Index Jan 2011 = 100)

Major Metros Total Housing Sales (Index Jan 2007 = 100)

Page 13: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

12

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Existing Home Days on Market New Home Days on Market

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Texas Homes Days on Market (Days)

Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market (Days)

Page 14: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

13

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

$0-$199,999 $200,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999

$500,000+

Major Metros New Homes Days on Market (Days)

Texas Home Days on Market by Price Cohort (Days)

Page 15: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

14

Note: Seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Jan-

07

Aug-

07

Mar

-08

Oct

-08

May

-09

Dec-

09

Jul-1

0

Feb-

11

Sep-

11

Apr-

12

Nov-

12

Jun-

13

Jan-

14

Aug-

14

Mar

-15

Oct

-15

May

-16

Dec-

16

Jul-1

7

Feb-

18

Sep-

18

Mortgage Bond

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Refinance Purchase

30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield (Percent)

Texas Mortgage Applications (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

Page 16: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

15

Prices

Note: The Repeat Sales Housing Price Index tracks real home price appreciation for residential single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10Ja

n-14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

Apr-

16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr-

17

Jul-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan-

18

Apr-

18

Jul-1

8

Oct

-18

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Existing Home Median Sale Price

New Home Median Sale Price

Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ($)

Real Estate Center Repeat Sales Housing Price Index (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

Page 17: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

16

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes.

Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

120,000

150,000

180,000

210,000

240,000

270,000

300,000

330,000

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

170,000

200,000

230,000

260,000

290,000

320,000

350,000

380,000

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price ($)

Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price ($)

Page 18: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

17

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Existing Home Median Price PSF

New Home Median Price PSF

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)

Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)

Page 19: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

18

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-IrvingFort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar LandSan Antonio-New Braunfels

0.90

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Existing Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio

New Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio

Texas Home Sale Price to List Price (Ratio)

Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)

Page 20: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

19

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

0.90

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18

Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep-

13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep-

14

Jan-

15

May

-15

Sep-

15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

May

-17

Sep-

17

Jan-

18

May

-18

Sep-

18Austin-Round Rock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

Fort Worth-Arlington

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land

San Antonio-New Braunfels

Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price (Ratio)

Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price (Ratio)

Page 21: Texas Housing Insight · November 2018 Summary Texas housing sales ticked down 1.1 percent in November and remained on a flat trajectory. The shortage of homes priced below $300,000

i

ADVISORY COMMITTEE

MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL

Texas A&M University 2115 TAMU

College Station, TX 77843-2115

http://recenter.tamu.edu 979-845-2031

DIRECTOR

GARY W. MALER

TROY ALLEY, JR. DeSoto

RUSSELL CAIN Port Lavaca

JJ CLEMENCE Sugar Land

ALVIN COLLINS Andrews

DOUG JENNINGS, CHAIRMAN Fort Worth

BESA MARTIN, VICE CHAIRMAN Boerne

TED NELSON HoustonDOUG ROBERTS AustinC. CLARK WELDER FredericksburgJAN FITE-MILLER, EX-OFFICIO Dallas