@TexasDemography

Texas Demographics and Higher Education

Texas Association of State Senior College and

University Business Officers

Horseshoe Bay, Texas

July 11, 2016

Overview

• Texas demographics • Population growth• Race and ethnic trends• Migration• Population projections• Demographics and higher

education

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0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions)

3All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Population Growth, Texas, 1950-2010

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses4

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

LibertyLee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

BastropAustin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2015

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

112 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 4,538,028

5

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2015

6Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

99 counties lost population over the five year period.

-1,913 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 80,000

80,001 - 444,952

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2015

7Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2015 Vintage.

-14.9% - 0%

0.1% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 10%

10.1% - 36.6%

CountyU.S. Rank

Population Change

Population Change

Percent of Change from

Natural Increase

Percent Change

from Migration

Percent Change from International

Migration

Harris 1 90,451 49.3% 50.7% 32.0%

Bexar 5 37,479 41.2% 58.8% 17.0%

Tarrant 6 36,152 46.3% 53.7% 20.2%

Dallas 9 33,760 68.1% 31.9% 39.0%

Fort Bend 13 29,437 20.7% 79.3% 16.5%

Collin 14 28,075 24.8% 75.2% 15.8%

Denton 16 25,820 25.5% 74.5% 11.7%

Travis 17 25,562 42.5% 57.5% 22.9%

Williamson 27 19,086 20.9% 79.1% 6.7%

Montgomery 29 18,505 19.2% 80.8% 9.9%*Dallas had net out domestic migration over this period. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2014-2015

Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2014-2015

County U.S. Rank

2014-2015 Percent

Population Change

Percent Change

from Migration

Percent Change from International

Migration Hays 1 5.2% 85.5% 1.9%

Comal 2 4.5% 90.7% 2.1%Fort Bend 4 4.3% 79.3% 16.5%

Williamson 7 3.9% 79.1% 6.7%Montgomery 10 3.6% 80.8% 9.9%

Denton 12 3.4% 74.5% 11.7%Ector 18 3.3% 63.1% 3.1%

Midland 19 3.3% 66.2% 3.2%Collin 23 3.2% 75.2% 15.8%

Kaufman 25 3.1% 79.8% 3.2%Parker 29 2.8% 89.8% 2.2%Brazos 32 2.8% 69.2% 27.4%

Guadalupe 38 2.7% 78.8% 4.6%Ellis 39 2.7% 77.2% 2.7%

*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2014Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 Vintage Population Estimates

Percent Population by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2000 and 2014

Hispanic or Latino39%

NH White43%

NH Black 12%

NH Asian4%

NH Other2%

10

Hispanic or Latino32%

NH White52%

NH Black 11%

NH Asian3%

NH Other2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census, SF1 and Population Estimates, 2104

20142000

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2014

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Popu

latio

n

Age

White (non-Hispanic)

Hispanic

11Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 + years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic

12

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 + years

Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic

13

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 + years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic

Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic

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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014

Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates

89.5% 86.7%

41.5%

65.9%49.7% 53.7%

10.5% 13.3%

58.5%

34.1%50.3% 46.3%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

MigrationNatural Increase

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

The 10 U.S. States with the Largest Average Annual Net Domestic Migration by Rank, 2005-2013

16

125,778

69,801

67,501

53,863

48,050

38,189

33,504

27,763

25,422

24,684

Texas

Florida

North Carolina

Arizona

Georgia

South Carolina

Colorado

Washington

Oregon

Tennessee

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2015

Components of Population Change for the Top Five Growth States, 2013-14

17

208,391 250,116

27,465 53,832 35,120

239,104 129,228

250,852

46,924 56,209

Texas California Florida Georgia Arizona

Natural Increase Net Migration

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2015

Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2013

18

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Mill

ions

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration

2000-2010 Migration

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

19Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

24

25

25

26

26

27

27

28

28

Mill

ions

Zero Migration

0.5 of 2000-2010 Migration

2000-2010 Migration

Estimates

Projected and Estimated Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2015

20Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2014

2020

2030

2040

2050

Under 1818 to 6465+

Censuses Estimates Projections

21

Population Change by Age Group, Texas, 1950-2050

Sources: US Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Censuses US Census Bureau, State Population EstimatesTexas State Data Center, 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

NH-WhiteNH-BlackHispanicNH-Other

22Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –

High School Graduates and Above

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,

Texas

24

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Less than High School High School orEquivalent

Some College /Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Constant 2011 %

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended

Rates, Texas

25

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Less than High School High School orEquivalent

Some College /Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree Graduate orProfessional Degree

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

Educational Attainment

2011 ACS

2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS.Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Projected population of 18-23 year old persons and projected college and university enrollment, Texas, 2010-2050

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

.5 2000-2010 Migration 2000-2010 MigrationPublic Universities Public Two-Year CollegesIndependent Universities TotalLinear (Public Universities) Linear (Public Two-Year Colleges)

26Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections and the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 2015 Enrollment Projections

High school graduation rates by race and ethnicity, Texas, 2007-2014

70.7 68.5

88.284.2 85.5

93

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

African-American Hispanic White2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

27Source: Texas Education Agency, “Secondary School Completion and Dropouts in Texas Public Schools, 2013-14”

High school students who graduated in the school year prior to entering higher education in the fall semester, Texas, 2015

Total WhiteAfrican-

American Hispanic AsianNative

American

Enrolled 51.4% 55.2% 48.5% 47.2% 74.6% 50.8%

Not trackable 5.2% 1.6% 2.1% 8.8% 5.7% 2.2%

Not Found 43.5% 43.2% 49.4% 44.0% 19.7% 47.0%

28

Percent of persons aged 15 years and older enrolled in college or graduate school by public and private, Texas, 2010-2014

7.0% 7.6% 7.6% 7.3% 7.3%

1.5%1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Public Private

29Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 1-Year Samples

Percent of Hispanics aged 25 years and older with associates degree or higher, U.S. and select states, 2014

20.4%

30.7%

24.2%

17.1%18.3%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

US Florida New York California Texas

30Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2014 1-Year Sample

Percent of the population aged 25 years and older with associates degree or higher by sex and race and ethnicity, Texas, 2014

65.8%

44.4%

26.3%

18.6% 16.8%

60.8%

43.2%

32.2%

20.9% 19.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Asian NH White Black Other Hispanic

Male Female

31Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2014 1-Year Sample

Review

• Growth – significant, fast, uneven• Hispanic population driving

growth• Migration patterns are dynamic• Challenges for closing gaps and

achieving desired higher education outcomes

32

Contact

Office: (210) 458-6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@utsa.eduInternet: demographics.texas.gov

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

@TexasDemography

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