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Texas Demographic Trends and Projections and the 2020 Census
Presented to
Mexican American Legislative Leadership Foundation
Moreno/Rangel Fellows and Luna Scholars
January 29, 2021
Texas is experiencing significant and substantial growth.
3
U.S. Estimated Population 2020: 329,484,123
Texas Estimated Population 2020:29,360,759
Texas makes up 8.9% of the total U.S. population but 32.4% of the total growth between 2019 and 2020.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Vintage population estimatesNote: These data are not from the 2020 Census, rather estimates based on the 2010 Census
Population and population growth in Texas are not evenly geographically distributed.
10,000 or less10,001 - 50,00050,001 - 100,000100,001 - 500,000500,001 - 1,000,0001,000,001 - 6,000,000 plus
Cartogram of Texas County Populations in 2010
5
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
Presidio Terrell
Reeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Duval
Harris
Hill
Frio
Bell
Kenedy
Kerr
Starr
Polk
Clay
Jeff Davis
Irion
Uvalde
Sutton
Hall
Ellis
Dallam
Gaines
Bexar
Hidalgo
Leon
Hale
Bee
Hartley
Upton
Kinney
Erath
Brazoria
King
Oldham
Zavala
Dimmit
Jack Kent
Gray
Cass
Kimble
Lynn Wise
Lamb Floyd
Andrews
Terry
Coke
Llano Milam
Travis
Ector
Knox
Falls
Collin
Nueces
Ward
Bowie
Kleberg
Foard
Culberson
Edwards
La Salle
Tyler
Medina
Hunt
Rusk
Liberty
Smith
Mills
Lee
Matagorda
Jones
Burnet
Nolan
Potter
Zapata
Cottle
Taylor
Coryell Reagan Houston
Motley
Brown
Young
Maverick
Lamar
Real
Martin
Coleman
Garza
Dallas
Jasper
Fisher
Tom Green
Moore
Cameron
Baylor
Deaf Smith
Archer
Scurry
Mason
Cooke
Navarro
Parker
Castro
Brooks
Atascosa
Hardin
DeWitt
Lavaca
Bailey
Donley
Bosque El Paso
Denton
Goliad
Wharton
Fannin
Runnels
Concho
Tarrant
Hays Fayette
Carson
Schleicher
Crosby
Crane
Borden
Calhoun
Gillespie
Haskell
Newton
Live Oak
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Randall
Sterling
Briscoe
Shelby
Mitchell
Parmer
Victoria
Wilson
Roberts
Menard
San Saba
Howard
Wood
Panola
Grayson
Trinity
Bastrop
Walker
Midland
Gonzales
Hockley
Anderson
Dickens
Swisher
Winkler
Dawson
Cherokee
Wheeler
Willacy
Grimes
Harrison
Colorado
Red River
Eastland
Lubbock
Williamson
Hemphill
Refugio
Karnes Jackson
McCulloch
Ochiltree
Wilbarger
Austin
Sherman
McLennan
Hansford
Blanco
Callahan Loving
Yoakum
Angelina
Lipscomb
Stephens
Hopkins
Palo Pinto
Stonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Bandera
Jim Wells
Cochran
Limestone
Fort Bend
Kaufman
Armstrong
Freestone Comanche
Montgomery
Glasscock
Kendall
Henderson
Galveston
Comal
Johnson Van Zandt
Wichita
Chambers
Titus
Robertson
Brazos
Hutchinson
Sabine
Upshur
Waller
Shackelford Hood
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Throckmorton
Hardeman
Guadalupe Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Orange
Rains
Gregg
San Augustine
Morris
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
169 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 500,000
5000,001 - 2,000,000
2,000,001 - 4,713,325
Approximately 86% of the total Texas population is located in counties along and to the east of I-35.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates
Total Estimated Population by County, 2019
6
Of Texas’ 254 counties, 104 lost population between 2010 and 2019.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates
-3,663 - 0
1 - 5,000
5,001 - 25,000
25,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 620,149
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
Presidio Terrell
Reeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Duval
Harris
Hill
Frio
Bell
Kenedy
Kerr
Starr
Polk
Clay
Jeff Davis
Irion
Uvalde
Sutton
Hall
Ellis
Dallam
Gaines
Bexar
Hidalgo
Leon
Hale
Bee
Hartley
Upton
Kinney
Erath
Brazoria
King
Oldham
Zavala
Dimmit
Jack Kent
Gray
Cass
Kimble
Lynn Wise
Lamb Floyd
Andrews
Terry
Coke
Llano Milam
Travis
Ector
Knox
Falls
Collin
Nueces
Ward
Bowie
Kleberg
Foard
Culberson
Edwards
La Salle
Tyler
Medina
Hunt
Rusk
Liberty
Smith
Mills
Lee
Matagorda
Jones
Burnet
Nolan
Potter
Zapata
Cottle
Taylor
Coryell Reagan Houston
Motley
Brown
Young
Maverick
Lamar
Real
Martin
Coleman
Garza
Dallas
Jasper
Fisher
Tom Green
Moore
Cameron
Baylor
Deaf Smith
Archer
Scurry
Mason
Cooke
Navarro
Parker
Castro
Brooks
Atascosa
Hardin
DeWitt
Lavaca
Bailey
Donley
Bosque El Paso
Denton
Goliad
Wharton
Fannin
Runnels
Concho
Tarrant
Hays Fayette
Carson
Schleicher
Crosby
Crane
Borden
Calhoun
Gillespie
Haskell
Newton
Live Oak
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Randall
Sterling
Briscoe
Shelby
Mitchell
Parmer
Victoria
Wilson
Roberts
Menard
San Saba
Howard
Wood
Panola
Grayson
Trinity
Bastrop
Walker
Midland
Gonzales
Hockley
Anderson
Dickens
Swisher
Winkler
Dawson
Cherokee
Wheeler
Willacy
Grimes
Harrison
Colorado
Red River
Eastland
Lubbock
Williamson
Hemphill
Refugio
Karnes Jackson
McCulloch
Ochiltree
Wilbarger
Austin
Sherman
McLennan
Hansford
Blanco
Callahan Loving
Yoakum
Angelina
Lipscomb
Stephens
Hopkins
Palo Pinto
Stonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Bandera
Jim Wells
Cochran
Limestone
Fort Bend
Kaufman
Armstrong
Freestone Comanche
Montgomery
Glasscock
Kendall
Henderson
Galveston
Comal
Johnson Van Zandt
Wichita
Chambers
Titus
Robertson
Brazos
Hutchinson
Sabine
Upshur
Waller
Shackelford Hood
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Throckmorton
Hardeman
Guadalupe Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Orange
Rains
Gregg
San Augustine
Morris
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
Estimated Numeric Change by County, 2010‐2019
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
Presidio
Culberson
Terrell
Reeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Duval
Harris
Hill
Frio
Bell
Kenedy
Kerr Edwards
Starr
Polk
Clay
Jeff Davis
Irion
Uvalde
Sutton
Hall
Ellis
Dallam
Gaines
Bexar
Hidalgo
Leon
Hale
Bee
Hartley
Upton
Kinney
Erath
Brazoria
King
Oldham
Zavala
Dimmit
Jack Kent
La Salle
Tyler
Gray
Cass
Medina
Kimble
Lynn Wise Hunt
Rusk
Lamb Floyd
Andrews
Liberty
Terry
Coke
Llano Milam
Travis
Ector
Smith
Knox
Mills
Lee
Falls
Collin
Nueces
Jones
Ward
Burnet
Nolan
Potter
Cottle
Taylor
Coryell
Bowie
Motley
Young
Lamar
Real
Martin
Garza
Dallas Fisher
Moore
Kleberg
Cameron
Baylor
Deaf Smith
Archer
Scurry
Mason
Cooke
Navarro
Parker
Castro
Hardin
Donley
El Paso
Denton
Goliad
Fannin
Schleicher
Gillespie
Shelby
Menard
Foard
Wood
Panola
Harrison
Eastland
Bandera
Matagorda
Zapata
Reagan Houston
Brown
Maverick
Coleman
Jasper
Tom Green
Brooks
Atascosa DeWitt
Lavaca
Bailey
Bosque
Wharton
Runnels
Concho
Tarrant
Hays Fayette
Carson
Crosby
Crane
Borden
Calhoun
Haskell
Newton
Live Oak
Jefferson
McMullen
Jim Hogg
Randall
Sterling
Briscoe
Mitchell
Parmer
Victoria
Wilson
Roberts
San Saba
Howard
Grayson
Trinity
Bastrop
Walker
Midland
Gonzales
Hockley
Anderson
Dickens
Swisher
Winkler
Dawson
Cherokee
Wheeler
Willacy
Grimes
Colorado
Red River
Lubbock
Williamson
Hemphill
Refugio
Karnes Jackson
McCulloch
Ochiltree
Wilbarger
Austin
Sherman
McLennan
Hansford
Blanco
Callahan
Loving
Yoakum
Angelina
Lipscomb
Stephens
Hopkins
Palo Pinto
Stonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Jim Wells
Cochran
Limestone
Fort Bend
Kaufman
Armstrong
Freestone Comanche
Montgomery
Glasscock
Kendall
Henderson
Galveston
Comal
Johnson
Van Zandt
Wichita
Chambers
Titus
Robertson
Brazos
Hutchinson
Sabine
Upshur
Waller
Shackelford Hood
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Throckmorton
Hardeman
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Washington
Delta
Orange
Rains
Gregg
San Augustine
Morris
Franklin
Camp
Somervell
Rockwall
7
The suburban ring counties are among the fastest growing, even faster than the Texas population as a whole.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Population Estimates
-33% - -5%
-4% - 0%
1% - 15%
16% - 31%
32% - 106%
Estimated Percent Change by County, 2010‐2019
What is driving population growth in Texas?
9
About 1,006 people per day added to our population.
• About 483 persons per day from natural increase (more births than deaths)
• About 523 per day from net migration (178 international and 345 domestic migrants per day).
Natural Increase48%Domestic
Migration34%
International Migration
18%
Texas added 367,215 people between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population Estimates.
10
213,651 208,964 205,795 213,541 214,380 212,021 209,690 190,951 175,878
70,535 76,954 82,44995,661 110,155 111,983 110,417
104,976
65,044
117,615145,513
110,614
163,160174,200
125,80079,163
82,569
125,660
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Components of Population Change, 2011‐2019
Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Net Migration
Migration and natural increase contribute about equally to population growth in Texas.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage population estimates
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Migration Flows, 2019; for infographic: https://demographics.texas.gov/Infographics/2020/TexasNetMigration
Texas among the highest in-migration flows states, CA biggest net sending state.
11
As Texas grows, it ages and continues to diversify.
Race/Ethnicity Composition, Texas, 2010-2019
NH White41%
NH Black12%
Hispanic 40%
NH Asian5%
NH Other2%
2019
NH White, 45%
NH Black, 12%
NH Asian, 4%
NH Other, 2%
Hispanic, 38%
2010
Race/Ethnicity2019
Population Estimate
NH White 11,950,774
Hispanic 11,525,578
NH Black 3,501,610
NH Asian 1,457,549
NH Two or More Races 425,866
NH American Indian & Alaska Native 94,168
NH Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander 25,861
Population Change by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2019
2,064,657 601,726 522,136 497,006 164,795
53.6%
15.6%13.6% 12.9%
4.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Hispanic NH Black NH White NH Asian NH Other
Share of Contribution to Total Population Change, 2010‐2019 Numeric Change, 2010‐2019
Nearly 87% of growth has been from non‐White population groups.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
What’s ahead for the population of Texas?
Projected Population, Texas, 2010-2030
17Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 and 2018 Population Projections
25.1
34.9
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Millions
Zero Migration
0.5 Migration
1.0 Migration
2010‐2015 Migration
29.7
18
Linear Forecast of Census Bureau Population Estimates 2010-2020 and TDC Population Projections
25,145,561
29,360,75929,677,668
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CB Estimates, linear projections TDC ProjectionsSource: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections; Census Bureau 2020 Population Estimates
Texas House District Ideal Size = 195,738 to 197,851Texas Senate District Idea Size = 947,121 to 957,345U.S. House Seat District Size (39 seats) = 753,840 to 760,966
19Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2018 Vintage Population Projections, 2010‐2015 Migration Scenario
Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2030
11.4 12.8
2.9
4.3
9.5
14.5
0.9
2.4
0.5 0.90
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Millions
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
Implications of population growth and demographic shifts on Texas socio-economic indicators
21
$74,974
$91,706
$70,079
$78,905
$43,482$52,010
$41,786$47,428
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Med
ian Ho
useh
old Income (Adjusted Do
llars)
AsianNH WhiteHispanicBlack
Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1‐Year Estimates
22
$64,034
$78,905
$52,010 $47,428
$91,706
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
Total NH White Hispanic Black Asian
Med
ian Ho
useh
old Income
Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio Texas
Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Big Four Metros & Texas, 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2019 1‐Year Estimates
Median incomes are higher in the DFW metro than in Texas overall. However, disparities by race/ethnicity are still evident, especially for Hispanics and Blacks.
Communities Most Impacted by COVID-19
23
24
Texas’s Most Vulnerable Populations• Income disparities place African Americans
and Latinos at greater risk during times of income loss.
• Renters, renters w/low incomes, Blacks, and households w/children face greater risk of eviction.
• Persistently low health insurance coverage in the state increases vulnerability of Texans with employer based insurance.
Source: Texas Demographic Center, https://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/publications/2020/20200918_ACS2019Brief_TexasMostVulnerablePopulations.pdf
25Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, https://www.census.gov/programs‐surveys/acs/about/information‐guide.html
U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS)• The ACS is the premier source for detailed population and housing
information. • Ongoing survey, conducted every month, every year• Data are released in 1-year and 5-year periods• Geographies available for 1-year estimates include: nation, state, and
geographies with populations of 65,000 or more• Geographies available for 5-year estimates include: nation, state, county,
MSA, place, congressional districts, school districts, census tracts, block groups, zip code tabulation area
• Includes variables on demographics, education, income and earnings, health insurance, citizenship, language, housing characteristics and many more.
• Fun fact: The ACS replaced the long form of the Census after 2000.
What is the Census?• Every ten years, the country conducts a census to count every person in the
United States.• April 1, 2020 is the official Census date.• Census counts used to reapportion the U.S. House of Representatives and
determine the number of electoral college votes a state gets.• Census counts used by state and local officials to redraw congressional,
legislative, and local boundaries to account for population shifts. • Businesses rely on Census data for market research, locations, and economic
development. • Census derived data are used to allocate over $1.5 trillion in federal funds to
support healthcare, education, transportation, or other service programs.* • Census data form the foundation for nearly all demographic and socio-
economic statistics, including population estimates & projections, for the next 10 years.
*Source: Reamer, Andrew; George Washington Institute of Public Policy, Counting for Dollars27
An estimated 7 million, or nearly 25% of Texans live in HTC areas.
• People of color
• Children under 5 years
• Populations in/near poverty
• Single-parent households
• Immigrants & those with limited
English proficiency
• Complex households: renters,
multi-family, mixed status, multi-
generation, larger households
Source: Center for Urban Research of the City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center. https://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us
Texas Hard to Count Populations
28
U.S. Response Rates to the 2020 Census
29Source: Center for Urban Research of the City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center. https://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us
Total Response Rate=
Self-Response Rate+
NRFU Enumerated Rate
U.S. Response Rates to the 2020 Census
• 99.98% of all housing units and addresses nationwide were enumerated.
• 2020 Self-Response Rate of 67.0% surpassed 2010 Self-Response Rate of 66.5%.
• 32.9% housing units enumerated through Non-Response Follow-Up (NRFU).
• 24.1% of NRFU workload enumerated through proxy (landlord, neighbor, etc.).
• 5.6% of address nationwide (13.9% of NRFU workload) resolved using administrative records
31
2020 Census Total Response in Texas
Total Response Rate=
Self-Response Rate+
NRFU Enumerated Rate
Texas Response Rate:
99.9% = 62.8% + 37.1%
Not all rates are created equal.
Self response rates, total response rates, enumeration rate, NRFU completion rates
What we do know:• Texas self-response rate lower than 2010 rate: 62.0% vs. 64.4%• Self-response rates vary across the state• Enumeration does not mean count• Self-response yields the most accurate census data
33
2020 Census Response Across Texas
Self-Response Rates among Texas Counties ranged from 75.8% in Fort Bend County to 18.6% in Edwards County.
29/254 (11%) Counties met or surpassed their 2010 SRR.
283/1221 (23%) Places/Cities met or surpassed their 2010 SRR.
TDC Analysis of Census Tracts with Self-Response Rates below 50% as of 10/28/20
• Texas has 1,263 of 6,774 census tracts with self-response rates below 50%• These lower responding CTs are distributed across the state, in 231 of 254
counties.• 47.7% of these CTs have majority (>50%) Hispanic populations.• 5.3% of these CTs have majority (>50%) African American populations.• 53% of these CTs are either majority Hispanic or Black.
34
35
Texas Demographic Center Data and Data Products
• TDC 2020 Census Resources • Map and dashboard• Static maps• Redistricting resources
36
37
Census Bureau Data Quality Measures• Census Coverage Measures: provide undercount by demographic groups,
geography, and method• Post-Enumeration Survey: interview a small sample of HHs who to check
accuracy of data collected on 2020 census forms (November 2021-February 2022)
• Demographic Analysis: produce population estimates using vital statistics, estimates of international migration and administrative records (December 2020)
• Along with apportionment data, Census Bureau will provide data quality metrics for nation and states: self-response, non-response follow-up (including household interviews, proxy interviews, and administrative records) (by April 30, 2021)
• For more info: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-census-metrics-data-quality-measures.html
• https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/coverage-measurement.html (2010 Census) 38
Important Dates:
• Apportionment File sent to POTUS 12/31/2020 April 30, 2021• Redistricting Data File (Public Law 94-171 File) received by Governors No later
than 4/1/2021 July 31, 2021 • PL 94-171 released to states in groups of 8 states per week, with one week prior notice• PL 94-171 File to include:
• Race, Ethnicity, 18 plus, Occupancy Status, Group Quarters by Type• Data available at WWW.CENSUS.GOV/RDO
• No schedule yet on other 2020 Census data products, but expected throughout 2022
39
