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Testing Viability Jayne Lomas 16 th October 2012. Today’s presentation…. Context - Planning and viability in 2012 HCA – Our business Area wide testing Site specific testing HCA support and advice. . NPPF launch – Plans should be deliverable. X. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Testing Viability
Jayne Lomas16th October 2012
Today’s presentation….
Context - Planning and viability in 2012
HCA – Our business
Area wide testing
Site specific testing
HCA support and advice.
NPPF launch – Plans should be deliverable
X
X
X Harman - Advice on viability testing of Local Plans.
Further planning reform
The Balancing Act
Local expectation Economic reality Political change Local plan viability Site specific Larger phased sites
DELIVERY
HCA : Our business
Housing Delivery
Increasing housing supply
Places that work
Improving quality and standards
Effective use of public sector land
Meeting housing needs
Delivering our programmes
HCA: As an investor
Affordable Housing Programme 2011-15
£4.5bn (£2.3bn existing commitments)
Meeting locally identified needs
FirstBuy support for c.10,000 FTBs access affordable home ownership
“Helping deliver the Government’s ambition to build up to 170,000 new high quality affordable homes by 2015”
HCA : As a land owner/agent HCA Land Existing P&R commitments
Accelerated disposal of land
Other government land Technical support to government departments
Economic Assets Programme Over 300 sites transferred – value of £300m
Nationally important sites – Enterprise Zones
Local stewardship arrangements
HCA : Why viability test?
To make sure we can deliver our land disposal plan To ensure we get the best value for our land To see that our investment goes where it is needed most To make sure that our investment works as hard as it
can – maximise recovery To select delivery partners (DPP)
Think like a developer ….. What is the total amount I could be paid for this development when completed? Gross development
value.
What will it cost me to construct the development including site set up? Overall build cost.
Any additional construction costs? Infrastructure/site abnormals?
What additional obligations will I have to meet? S106/CIL/Affordable housing
How will I pay for this development work? Finance costs and cashflow impact
What costs will I have to pay to sell the units? Marketing and legal costs
How can I satisfy my shareholders? Developer’s return or overheads and profit.
What can I afford to pay for the land? Residual land value
The secret of viability testing
Assumptions, assumptions, assumptions Comparators Benchmarks
Do ( as much as you can) yourself !
The overall price at which the developer calculates he can sell on the land and new buildings.
Ultimately the ‘fixed cake’ from which everything has to be paid.
For sales values look at local market evidence. Hometrack.
Sales values used should be forecast to the proposed sales period – could be several years
Look at sales rates and the impact this has on cashflow.
.
Income assumptions
Expenditure assumptions 1
The total cost of constructing the units
Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) from RICS– Definition
• ‘substructure & superstructure but not infrastructure’ • ‘back to the pavement but no further’
– Limitations • sample size, • Build scale
Volume house building – Cost efficiencies of a standard product ?– Supply chain benefits
Quality standards - Code for Sustainable Homes (CSH) & Zero Carbon, Life time homes
Contingency????
Unit Build costs
Expenditure assumptions 2
Prelims and site set up – depends on length of contract External works Infrastructure Abnormals (for the type of scheme….) Design fees Finance fees Marketing costs and incentives Overheads and profit
Expenditure assumptions 3
S106 CIL Affordable Housing – tenure mix, numbers
Regulatory burden?
HCA : Our Viability tools
Designed to be neutral, open and transparent Available free from our website No ongoing license fees Guidance online Specific support available via email helpdesk
www.homesandcommunities.co.uk/ourwork/viability-planning-tools
HCA : Area wide viability model
A transparent, independent tool The AWVM is simple and can be used for consultation
events Can be used for plan making purposes over many years Can be used throughout changes in teams/consultants Land value is calculated as one of the outputs and is not
an input derived by the land owner or others. It will ‘goalseek’ to find the viable level of Affordable
Housing given the assumptions made
HCA : Development appraisal tool
Site specific viability tool (DAT) Residual value model Based on assumptions Advice on sourcing robust input
data Allows benchmarking between
bids and sites. Derivations for deferred receipt
– Build Now Pay later
HCA : ATLAS
Specialist support on larger sites (ATLAS) Usually at the request of the LPA Housing led development sites +500 units Mixed use complex schemes Any stage of delivery Linked to a site or delivery proposal Non – project support