8
Forecasting Influenza Epidemics from Multi-Stream Surveillance Data in a Subtropical City of China Pei-Hua Cao 1. , Xin Wang 2. , Shi-Song Fang 2 , Xiao-Wen Cheng 2 , King-Pan Chan 1 , Xi-Ling Wang 1 , Xing Lu 2 , Chun-Li Wu 2 , Xiu-Juan Tang 2 , Ren-Li Zhang 2 , Han-Wu Ma 2 , Jin-Quan Cheng 2 *, Chit-Ming Wong 1 *, Lin Yang 1,3 1 School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China, 2 Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China, 3 School of Nursing, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China Abstract Background: Influenza has been associated with heavy burden of mortality and morbidity in subtropical regions. However, timely forecast of influenza epidemic in these regions has been hindered by unclear seasonality of influenza viruses. In this study, we developed a forecasting model by integrating multiple sentinel surveillance data to predict influenza epidemics in a subtropical city Shenzhen, China. Methods: Dynamic linear models with the predictors of single or multiple surveillance data for influenza-like illness (ILI) were adopted to forecast influenza epidemics from 2006 to 2012 in Shenzhen. Temporal coherence of these surveillance data with laboratory-confirmed influenza cases was evaluated by wavelet analysis and only the coherent data streams were entered into the model. Timeliness, sensitivity and specificity of these models were also evaluated to compare their performance. Results: Both influenza virology data and ILI consultation rates in Shenzhen demonstrated a significant annual seasonal cycle (p,0.05) during the entire study period, with occasional deviations observed in some data streams. The forecasting models that combined multi-stream ILI surveillance data generally outperformed the models with single-stream ILI data, by providing more timely, sensitive and specific alerts. Conclusions: Forecasting models that combine multiple sentinel surveillance data can be considered to generate timely alerts for influenza epidemics in subtropical regions like Shenzhen. Citation: Cao P-H, Wang X, Fang S-S, Cheng X-W, Chan K-P, et al. (2014) Forecasting Influenza Epidemics from Multi-Stream Surveillance Data in a Subtropical City of China. PLoS ONE 9(3): e92945. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0092945 Editor: Cristina Costa, University Hospital San Giovanni Battista di Torino, Italy Received June 23, 2013; Accepted February 27, 2014; Published March 27, 2014 Copyright: ß 2014 Cao et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Funding: The authors have no support or funding to report. Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. * E-mail: [email protected] (JQC); [email protected] (CMW) . These authors contributed equally to this work. Introduction Influenza is a contagious disease with high transmissibility to spread around the world. Influenza viruses, particularly the type A viruses, are characterized with a high mutation rate. According to WHO, there are about 300,000 deaths related to influenza every year [1]. Although influenza was once considered to be a ‘‘cold’’ disease, influenza-associated disease burden in warm tropical and subtropical regions has been demonstrated as high as in cold temperate regions [2]. For example, in subtropical city Hong Kong, influenza causes more than 1,000 deaths and more than 4,000 hospitalizations of respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease_ENREF_4 every year [3]. Hence it is of great significance for public health to establish a forecasting model with the aim to issue timely warning signals for influenza epidemics. However, unlike temperate countries where influenza virus exhibits one sharp winter peak, tropical and subtropical regions have less clear seasonal pattern and influenza viruses could be active throughout the year [4]. Despite of a few attempts [5,6], to this date there are no forecasting models that have been widely adopted in tropical and subtropical regions. With increased awareness on influenza epidemics under warm climates, sentinel surveillance for influenza has been greatly enhanced in subtropical and tropical regions. Shenzhen, one of the largest migratory metropolitan cities located in Southern China, has established the influenza surveillance program in late 1990s [7]. Like many other regions [8], Shenzhen’s surveillance system for influenza includes both clinical surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI, defined as fever over 37.8uC and/or cough) and laboratory surveillance from a selected sample of ILI patients. Although laboratory surveillance can provide more accurate signals for influenza epidemics, it usually lags weeks, even months, behind clinical surveillance [6]. ILI consultation rates can be quickly and easily collected by clinical doctors to generate more timely alerts, so that health authorities could quickly implement control measures. However, the lack of specific symptoms after influenza infections often resulted in false signals [9]. Previous PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org 1 March 2014 | Volume 9 | Issue 3 | e92945

Test of Russian as a Foreign Language (TORFL) · А2. Most necessary communicative tasks Everyday communication Everyday routines, socio-cultural, classroom, working areas of communication

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Page 1: Test of Russian as a Foreign Language (TORFL) · А2. Most necessary communicative tasks Everyday communication Everyday routines, socio-cultural, classroom, working areas of communication

spbu.ru 08 April 2020

Russian Language Testing SpecialistOleg G. Krinitsky

Test of Russian as a Foreign Language(TORFL)А2 Level

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The oldest university of Russia

Founded in 1724

One of the countries leading universities

More than 30000 students and 12000 academic staffAlmost 70 years of teaching Russian as a foreign language

Saint Petersburg State University

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Language Testing Centre

Founded 22 August 1997

Russian language testing in Greece, Germany, Turkey, Serbia, S. Korea, China, Czech Republic, Norway, Great Britain, Italy, Poland, Argentina, Brazil, Iceland etc.

80 testing centres abroad

Partner of Association ofLanguage Testers of Europe

Internationally recognized certificate

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TORFL Certificate

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Test of Russian as a Foreign Language (TORFL)

А1 Elementary

А2 Basic

В1 The First Level (TORFL-I)

В2 The Second Level (TORFL-II)

С1 The Third Level (TORFL-III)

С2 The Forth Level (TORFL-IV)

Corresponding with The Common European Framework of Reference (CEFR)

6 levels:

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А2 Level Brief Description

А2А2

Most necessary communicative

tasks

Most necessary communicative

tasks

Everyday communication

Everyday communication

Everyday routines, socio-cultural,

classroom, working areas of

communication

Everyday routines, socio-cultural,

classroom, working areas of

communication

Limited Grammar and Vocabulary

Limited Grammar and Vocabulary

«Pre-Threshold Level»

≈ 1300 words

≈ 180-200 hours from А1

Sufficient for work permit or

citizenship.

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CEFR Self-Assessment Scale

What can I do at А2 Level?

Understanding

ListeningI can understand phrases and the highest frequency vocabulary related to areas of mostimmediate personal relevance (e.g. very basic personal and family information, shopping, localarea, employment). I can catch the main point in short, clear, simple messages andannouncements.

ReadingI can read very short, simple texts. I can find specific, predictable information in simpleeveryday material such as advertisements, prospectuses, menus and timetables and I canunderstand short simple personal letters.

SpeakingDialogue

I can communicate in simple and routine tasks requiring a simple and direct exchange ofinformation on familiar topics and activities. I can handle very short social exchanges, eventhough I can't usually understand enough to keep the conversation going myself.

Monologue I can use a series of phrases and sentences to describe in simple terms my family and otherpeople, living conditions, my educational background and my present or most recent job.

Writing Writing I can write short, simple notes and messages relating to matters in areas of immediate needs. Ican write a very simple personal letter, for example thanking someone for something.

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Speaking skills assessment

A student at A2 level:

Range Uses a range of simple “pre-fabricated” structures, word combinations and fix phrases toreport limited information in everyday situations.

Accuracy Uses correctly some simple structures, although systematically makes some elementarymistakes.

Fluency Is able to clearly express his/her thought with very short sentences, although pausing,self-correction and repetition are too obvious.

InteractionResponds appropriately to all instructions, questions and simple utterances. Is able todemonstrate when he/she follows the other person’s thought, but hardly everunderstands enough to develop the conversation.

Cohesion Is able to join words and group of words with a range of simple linkers, expressing cause,result, purpose (and, but, when, then, because, so).

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Test Format

5 Subtests

• Grammar and Vocabulary

• Reading

• Listening

• Speaking

• Writing

≥66% for each subtest

(or ≥60% with one of them)

Pass Score:

Possible to resit one or two subtests.

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«Grammar and Vocabulary» Subtest

50 minutes, 5 sections, 100 tasks:• Vocabulary• Noun, adjective and pronoun cases• Verbs of motion with prefixes• Verb system• Syntax (conjuctions)

1. Мой … брат уже работает, хотя он … меня только на 3 года.

А. старый В. старший

Б. старше Г. старик

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«Grammar and Vocabulary»: Practice

2. Я … играть в на гитаре.

А. знаюБ. умеюВ. интересуюсь

3. Мой друг посоветовал мне посмотреть … фильм.

А. этого Б. этоВ. этот

4. Он носит очки, потому что плохо … .

А. видитБ. смотрит

5. Музыканты часто выступают ….

А. в популярные клубыБ. в популярных клубахВ. популярные клубы

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«Grammar and Vocabulary»: Practice

2. Я … играть на гитаре.

А. знаюБ. умеюВ. интересуюсь

3. Мой друг посоветовал мне посмотреть … фильм.

А. этого Б. этоВ. этот

4. Он носит очки, потому что плохо … .

А. видитБ. смотрит

5. Музыканты часто выступают ….

А. в популярные клубыБ. в популярных клубахВ. популярные клубы

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«Reading» Subtest

50 minutes, 4 parts, 30 tasks:• Phrases to be logically completed• A passage of an article (topic identification)• Passages from texts (search for matching info)• A description text (250-300 words)

You can use a bilingual dictionary.

2. Скоро праздник.

А. Надо отправить открытки друзьям. Б. Я купил календарь. В. Завтра мы пойдём в парк.

1. Жан плохо понимает по-русски.

А. Говорите, пожалуйста, медленно.Б. Говорите, пожалуйста, громко.В. Почему Вы не отвечаете?

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«Reading» Subtest: Practice

Клад старинных монет XVII века случайно нашли в центре Москвы. Всего клад состоит из 41 монеты. Место, где нашли монеты, раньше называлось Земляной город. Сегодня это территория Москвы, район Садового кольца. Специалисты говорят, что на этом месте жили люди, которые были кузнецами – делали различные нужные вещи из металла. В те времена на эти монеты можно было купить 20-30 куриц или корову.

3. В статье речь идёт о … .А) Древней МосквеБ) старинном кладеВ) Садовом кольце

4. В XVII веке на 41 монету … .А) можно было купить немного мясаБ) домашнее животное или два-три десятка домашних птицВ) почти ничего нельзя было купить

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«Reading» Subtest: Practice

Клад старинных монет XVII века случайно нашли в центре Москвы. Всего клад состоит из 41 монеты. Место, где нашли монеты, раньше называлось Земляной город. Сегодня это территория Москвы, район Садового кольца. Специалисты говорят, что на этом месте жили люди, которые были кузнецами – делали различные нужные вещи из металла. В те времена на эти монеты можно было купить 20-30 куриц или корову.

3. В статье речь идёт о … .А) Древней МосквеБ) старинном кладеВ) Садовом кольце

4. В XVII веке на 41 монету … .А) можно было купить немного мясаБ) домашнее животное или два-три десятка домашних птицВ) почти ничего нельзя было купить

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«Listening» Subtest

30 minutes, 5 parts, 25 tasks:• Phrases• Dialogues (topic identification)• Dialogues (search for specificinformation)• Monologue

All texts are repeated twice.1. Я был в Париже в прошлом году.

А. Я приехал в Париж в прошлом году.Б. Я ездил в Париж в прошлом году.В. Я поехал в Париж год назад.

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«Listening» Subtest

2. …….

А) Мы взяли такси. Б) Мы всегда берем такси. В) Мы решили взять такси.

3. …….

А) Скоро ко мне придут гости. Б) Вчера у меня были гости. В) Сейчас у меня гости.

4. …….

Они разговаривали …. А) в магазине Б) в кассе аэропорта В) в киоске

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«Listening» Subtest

2. Давай возьмём такси! Мы опаздываем в театр!

А) Мы взяли такси. Б) Мы всегда берём такси. В) Мы решили взять такси.

3. Сегодня вечером ко мне придут гости.

А) Скоро ко мне придут гости. Б) Вчера у меня были гости. В) Сейчас у меня гости.

4. – Я хочу купить один билет на самолёт.– На какое число?

– На десятое. – Куда Вы летите?– В Новосибирск.

– Есть билет на самолёт, который летит из Москвы в 9 часов.– Хорошо. Сколько он стоит?

Они разговаривали …. А) в магазине Б) в кассе аэропорта В) в киоске

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How to fill out the matrix?

1. Анна обожает изучать русский язык!А) Она с трудом изучает русский язык.Б) Она не любит изучать русский язык.В) Ей очень нравится изучать русский язык.

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«Writing» Subtest

50 , 2 tasks, 18-20 phrases/ 5 phrasesЗадание 1. Вы недавно вернулись из путешествия в другую страну. Напишите письмо Вашему другу (подруге) и расскажите о поездке.а) Напишите:- куда Вы ездили и с кем;- на каком транспорте Вы ездили;- сколько времени продолжалась Ваша поездка;б) Спросите у него:- любит ли он путешествовать;- где он уже был;- что он может Вам посоветовать.

Задание 2. Вы не были на занятиях. Напишите записку своему преподавателю и объясните, почему Вы не пришли.

You can use a bilingual dictionary.

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«Speaking» Subtest

25 minutes, 3 parts, 11 tasks:• ответы на реплики (5 фраз)• начало диалога (5 фраз)• монолог (12-15 фраз)

Задание 1. Примите участие в диалоге. Ответьте собеседнику.- Скажите, какое Ваше любимое блюдо?

Задание 2. Познакомьтесь с описанием ситуации. Начните диалог.Позвоните в гостиницу и закажите номер.

Задание 3. Подготовьте сообщение на тему: «Как я провожу свободное время».Какие книги Вам нравятся? Как часто вы ходите в музеи, в кино, на выставки? Какими видами спорта Вы занимаетесь? Какие передачи Вы любите смотреть по телевизору? Какаямузыка Вам нравится? У Вас есть хобби? Какое?

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Adequacy of communicative task solutionКак Вы думаете, что означает данный параметр?

1. Соответствие ответа кандидата требуемой длине высказывания2. Соответствие ответа кандидата заданной интенции3. Психологический контроль кандидата над собой

Compliance with specified volume of utteranceПодготовьте сообщение на тему «Моя семья» (12-15 предложений)Студ.: Моя семья маленькая - я, мама и отец. Ну, это всё…

Productive skills assessment parameters (1/3)

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Productive skills assessment parameters (2/3)

Cohesion and CoherenceСтуд.: Ну / обычно я отдыхаю в Европе / и мне нравится оченькрасивая архитектура там // А я собственно знакомые места да //Это мой отпуск //

Completeness of information presentationНапишите письмо Вашему русскому другу. Расскажите, когда у васканикулы, спросите, что он делает в это время и пригласите его к себе.

Как Вы думаете, какую ошибку по данному параметру можетдопустить кандидат в этом примере?

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Productive skills assessment parameters (3/3)

Communicatively significant errorСтуд.: В этом магазине есть часто статьи о моде.Студ.: Я тратил русский язык долго, но так хорошо не понимаюграмматику все равно.

Communicatively insignificant errorСтуд.: Когда у меня свободное времяя очень люблю читать книгу.Студ.: Я быстро сделал все благодаряих помощь.

«Errors of high level»aren’t assessed

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You can get extra points for:

comprehensive use of speech etiquetteПреп.: - Позвоните в больницу и узнайте, когда работает Ваш врач.Студ.: - Здравствуйте// Извините / пожалуйста / могу я спросить /когда / доктор Иванов работает //

Independence in language useПреп.: - Как Вы думаете, русский язык нужен для Вашей профессии?Студ.: - Вы знаете / думаю не только нужен / думаю он необходим //

Intelligible individual sounds, word stress and intonation Extent

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Recommendations for Test Tasks Performance

Grammar and Vocabulary Go over a task and correctly allocate the given time

Reading First read questions or phrases, find and underline key words Scan the text and underline key words; then answer the questions or

choose phrases

Listening First read answer options, then listen to the text Mark supposedly correct answers in the draft during first listening Be sure to follow the form of the word

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Recommendations for productive skill tasks performance

Writing Write a story according to the plan in the task Do not write a complete draft Do not miss one of the tasks

Speaking Avoid “Yes”, ”No”, ”I don’t know” answers Answer the questions with one or two phrases No need to tell the truth – use your imagination Do not forget about the style Plan your monologue according to the given plan

Could you repeat it , please?

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On the day of the Test

What to bring with you?•Passport or other ID (with a photo)•Receipt of payment for examination•2 ball pens of blue colour•Bilingual dictionary (paper!)

What is forbidden during the test?•All electronic devices•Take away examination papers from the classroom•Test materials copying and talking to other candidates

When can you use a dictionary?•During “Reading” and “Writing” subtest.

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How to prepare for the test?

How to arrange traning for the test?• «Grammar and Vocabulary», «Reading» and «Listening» - self-study using relevant test

materials and course books• «Writing» and «Speaking» - preparation with a teacher

What does a student have to know before testing?• Their own tactics on how to manage the time• Instructions for each subtest• How to complete the working matrixes (see below)

1) А Б В Г

2) А Б В Г

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Test of Russian as a Foreign Language Descriptions

Европейский языковой портфель

Государственный стандарт по РКИ

Лексический минимумпо РКИ

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Sample tests

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Н. Цветова«112 тестов по русскому

языку как иностранному»

М. Макова, Н. Андрюшина«Тесты, тесты, тесты…»Типовые тесты по РКИ

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Course books

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С. Чернышов«Поехали»

И. Мозелова«Русский сувенир»

О.Долматова, Е. Новачац«Точка.Ру»

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Course books

Т. Эсмантова «Русский язык: 5 элементов»

Л. Миллер, Л. Политова, И. Рыбакова «Жили-были»

Л. Беликова, Т. Шутова, С.Степанова «Первые шаги»

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Grammar and Exercise Workbooks

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А. Мустайоки и др. «Багаж / Luggage»

С. Хавронина, А.Широченская «Русский язык

в упражнениях»

Н. Битехтина и др«A Living Russian Grammar»

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Grammar and Exercise Workbooks

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Н.С. Новикова, О.М. Щербакова«Удивительные истории»

Н. Костюк«Читаем без проблем»

И.С. Тургенев«Ася»

Easy reading book series

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“Writing”, “Listening”, “Speaking”

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В. Ермаченкова«Слушать и услышать»

Е. Бузальская, Н. Любимова«Мои первые строки

по-русски»

В. Ермаченкова«Слово»

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Language Testing Centre of Saint Petersburg State University

Website: http://english.spbu.ru/language-testing-center

E-mail: [email protected]

Tel.: +7 (812) 325-11-24

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