TERRORISTS' TARGET SELECTION

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Terrorists'Target Selection

C. J. M. Drake

First published in Great Britain 1998 by

MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the wodd

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

ISBN 978-1-349-40442-1 ISBN 978-0-230-37467-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230374676

First published in the United States of America 1998 by

ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York. N.Y. 10010

ISBN 978-0-312-21197-4

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Drake, C. J. M., 1962-Terrorists' target selection I C.J.M. Drake. p. em. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-312-21197-4 (cloth) I. Terrorism-Philosophy. 2. Terrorism-Psychological a~pects. 3. Victims of terrorism. I. Title. HV6431.D73 1997 303.6'25--dc21 97-38269

CIP

©C. J. M. Drake 1998

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without wrinen permission.

No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced. copied or transmined save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permiuing limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. 90 Totlenham Coun Road, London WI P 9HE.

Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and ci vii claims for damages.

The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources.

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 07 06 OS 04 03 02 0 I 00 99 98

In memory of my father

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Contents

List o( Figures VIlI

List or Tables IX

A ck 11 owledgem ('II ts X

List of Abbrel'iatio/ls XI

Introduction

2 Terrorist Typologies 5

3 Ideology 16

4 Strategy 35

5 Tactics 54

6 Capabilities 73

7 Target Protection 9K

8 The Security Environment 120

9 External Factors 144

10 Decision-ma ki ng 163

II Target Selection 175

Notes 183

Bibliography 243 Index 267

vii

List of Figures

2.1 A simple model of terrorism 4.1 Provisional IRA: logical strategy 4.2 Provisional IRA terrorist strategy 4.3 PIRA rationale for attacking British soldiers 10.1 Provisional IRA command structure 11.1 Constraints on terrorist target selection 11.2 Process of terrorist target se kction

Vlll

8 37 37 44

166 176 180

List of Tables

3.1 Killings in Northern Ireland perpetrated by Loyalist and Republican groups, ] 969-] 993 32

3.2 Categories of people killed, wounded or kidnapped by communist terrorist groups in Italy and West Germany 33

4.1 Lethal mass casualty bomb attacks in Italy against civilian targets, 1 <J69- 1993 48

4.2 Civilians killed by terrorist groups in Algeria in 1994 50 6. I Relative size and rate of fire of machine-guns,

1884-1970 94 7. I Security force deaths in Northern Ireland. 1970-1993 113 7.2 British Army fatalities and fatal incidents caused by

Irish republican groups, 1970-1993 ] 14 7.3 British Army fatalities and fatal incidents caused by

Irish republican groups, ] 970-93 ] 15 8. I Levels of terrorist and security force activi ties in

Northern Ireland, 1980-1989 130 8.2 Police officers killed by terrorists as a percentage of

terrorist killings 137 9.1 Categories of opinion relating to the Provisional IRA

and the Red Army Faction 146 10.] Location of fatalities across the parliamentary

constituencies in Northern Ireland, July 13, 1969 to July ]2, 1989 173

ix

Acknowledgements

In the course of my research I have incurred numerous debts. First and foremost my family has provided the moral and material sup­port without which I could not have coped. For this and for much else I am profoundly grateful.

The University of St Andrews, the David Russell Trust, and the School of History and International Relations at the University of St Andrews, all provided financial assistance without which any ques­tion of my carrying out research would have been purely academic.

I would like to thank my Ph.D. supervisor, Professor Paul Wilkinson, for his forbearance and guidance, and several other mem­bers of the Department of International Relations at St Andrews for their encouragement. I am also indebted to the library staffs at the universities of St Andrews, Aberdeen, Bradford, the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, and the Linenhall Library in Belfast.

It is invidious to single out people for friendship, but amongst several others I would particularly thank Robin and Ailsa (and Katie), Mike, and Magnus for tolerating me as a Departmental colleague, and Antonio, Joao, Shewn, and Luis for their friendship and for­bearance as fiatmates. I am particularly grateful to Bruce and Fiona for their friendship and hospitality, and for Bruce's indefatigable proofreading and commentary on my work. To Jim and Maggie I would like to add particular thanks.

In keeping with tradition, any mistakes in this work are my responsibility.

x

List of Abbreviations

Abbreviations for groups, organisations, posts and publications. The countries listed here refer to where these originated. where they are based, or where they mainly operate.

Please note that it has become conventional in the literature to drop foreign accents. For the most part I have followed this con­vention throughout.

17N

ACDEGAM

AD AIS

ALF ALN

ANUC

AP/RN

B2J BR BR/PCC

CCC

CIA

DC Dev Sol EOKA

ETA

Epanastaiki Organosi 17 Noemvri (Revolutionary Organisation 17th November). Greece. AsociacioTl de Campesionos y Gandcros dcl Magdelena Medio (Peasants and Ranchers of the Magdelcna Medio). Colombia. Action Directe (Direct Action). France. Armel' islamique du salut (Islamic Salvation Army). Algeria. Animal Liberation Front. United Kingdom. Acao Libertadora Naeional (Action for National Lib­eration). Brazil. Asociacion Nacional de Usuarios Campesinos (Na­tional Association of Peasant Users). Colombia. All PhoblachtlRepublican News. Ireland/United Kingdom. Bewegung 2 Juni (June 2nd Movement). Germany. Brigate Rosse (Red Brigades). Italy. Partito Comunista Combattente (Fighting Commu­nist Party). Italy. Cellules Communistes Combattantes (Fighting Communist Cells). Belgium. Central Intelligence Agency. United States of America. Democrazia Cristiana (Christian Democrats). Italy. Devrimci Sol (Revolutionary Left). Turkey. Ethniki Organosis Kypriakou Agoniston (National Organisation of Cypriot Fighters). Cyprus. Euzkadi ta Askatasuna (Basque Homeland and Liberty). Spain/France.

Xl

xii

FARC

FBI FIS

FLN

GAL

GIA

GSG9

HRU INLA

JRA LTTE MIS

MI6

MAS

MK

OAS

OIRA

OP PCC

PCI

PIRA

PFLP

PFLP-GC

List of Abbrel'i(/tioIlS

Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), Federal Bureau of Investigation. United States of America. Front Islamique du Salut (Islamic Salvation Front). Algeria. Front de Liberation Nationale (National Liberation Front). Algeria. Gruppos Antiterroristas de Liberacion (Anti-terrorist Liberation Group). Spain/France Groupes Islamique Armee (Armed Islamic Group). Algeria. Grenzchutzgruppe 9 (Border Protection Unit 9). Germany. Hostage Rescue Unit. Irish National Liberation Army. United Kingdom/ Ireland. Japanese Red Army. Japan. Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Sri Lanka. Security Service (formally Military Intelligence sec­tion S). United Kingdom. Secret Intelligence Service (formally Military Intel­ligence section 6). United Kingdom. Muerte a Secuestradores (Death to Kidnappers). Colomhia. Umkhonto we Sizwe (Spear of the Nation). South Africa. Organisation Armee Secrete (Secret Army Organi­sation). Algeria and France. Official Irish Republican Army. United Kingdom/ Ireland. Observation post. Partitio Comunista Combattente (Fighting Commu­nist Party). Italy. Partito Comunista Italiano (Italian Communist Party). Provisional Irish Republican Army. United King­dom/I re land. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Is­rael/Jordan. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine Gen­eral Command. Israel/Jordan.

PKK

PL PLO RAF

RIR RUC RZ SAS SL SLA

UDA UDR UP UVF VCP WGH

Lists or Abbreviations XllI

Partiye Karkaran-e Kurdistan (Kurdistan Workers Party). Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria. Prima Linea (Front Line). Italy. Palestinian Liberation Organisation. Israel!.lordan. Rotc Armee Fraktion (Red Army Faction). Ger­many. Royal Irish Regiment. United Kingdom. Royal Ulster Constabulary. United Kingdom. Rote Zellen (Revolutionary Cells). Gcrmany. Special Air Service. United Kingdom. Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path). Peru. Symbionese Liberation Army. United States of America. Ulstcr Defence Association. United Kingdom. Ulster Defence Regiment. United Kingdom. Union Patriotica (Patriotic Union). Colombia. Ulster Volunteer Force. United Kingdom. Vehicle check-points. Wehrsport Gruppe Hoffmann (Hoffman Military Sports Group). Germany.