Territoriality of the regional and national vote

in Central and Eastern Europe

Presentation delivered at theWorkshop ‘Territorial Politics in Western and Eastern Europe’

University of EdinburghEdinburgh, Scotland, 14-15 June 2012

Dr. Arjan H. SchakelAssistant Professor in Research

MethodsMaastricht University

a.schakel@maastrichtuniversity.nl

Congruence of the vote• Vote shares can be differentiated

along:– Level of aggregation: national (N) or

regional (R)– Type of election: national (N) or

regional (R)

• This leads to three measurements of the congruence of the vote– Party system congruence: NN-RR– Electorate congruence: NN-NR– Election congruence: NR-RR

MAIN FINDINGS

Results I West European hypotheses

• Second-order election model– Leading to less dissimilarity in the vote

• Territorial cleavages– Leading to more dissimilarity in the vote

• Regional authority–Negative (no) effect but probably no

causation

• Electoral alliances– Contributes greatly to dissimilarity in

the vote– Election alliances in regional elections

lead to less dissimilarity in the vote

• Party system volatility– Particularly relevant for explaining

increases in dissimilarity of the vote over time

Results II East European hypotheses

Discussion• In how far can (1) varying election

alliances across the territory and/or (2) new parties established in regional elections be conceived as territorialization of the vote or as nationalization of the vote?

• Senior party which takes the lead in election alliances is often a statewide party looking to prevent a vote share loss in regional elections

• New parties established in regional elections may seek national representation