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Undiscovered Resources Largest Undiscovered Field
MFS Prob. Oil (MMBO)
(0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean
Oil Fields 20 0 264 633 283 0 1,291 3,270 1,413 0 77 198 85 48 96 219 109
Gas Fields 120 0 10,488 18,245 10,051 0 620 1,139 603 910 1,804 4,110 2,054
Total 0.85 0 264 633 283 0 11,779 21,516 11,464 0 697 1,337 688
0.85
Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic, Assessment Unit 11090102Assessment Results Summary
[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. MFS, minimum field size assessed (MMBO or BCFG). Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the MFS. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect
positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]
Field Type Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL) (MMBO or BCFG)
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 800.00 MMBOEntire range is from 50.91 to 1,263.33 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.76
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 332.18Median 302.70Mode ---Standard Deviation 170.83Variance 29,182.80Skewness 0.80Kurtosis 3.45Coefficient of Variability 0.51Range Minimum 50.91Range Maximum 1,263.33Range Width 1,212.42Mean Standard Error 0.76
Frequency Chart
MMBO
.000
.005
.010
.015
.020
0
254.2
508.5
762.7
1017
0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00
50,000 Trials 541 Outliers
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields
Page 1
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBO100% 50.9195% 109.0190% 135.5185% 156.7380% 177.3275% 197.8470% 218.0265% 238.2060% 259.0555% 280.3350% 302.7045% 326.2840% 352.1335% 377.9130% 407.9525% 439.8820% 475.2415% 517.4010% 570.635% 651.270% 1,263.33
End of Forecast
Page 2
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 4,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 177.85 to 7,290.16 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 4.05
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 1,659.55Median 1,483.37Mode ---Standard Deviation 906.25Variance 821,281.29Skewness 0.99Kurtosis 4.10Coefficient of Variability 0.55Range Minimum 177.85Range Maximum 7,290.16Range Width 7,112.32Mean Standard Error 4.05
Frequency Chart
BCFG
.000
.006
.012
.018
.024
0
294.5
589
883.5
1178
0.00 1,125.00 2,250.00 3,375.00 4,500.00
50,000 Trials 380 Outliers
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields
Page 3
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile BCFG100% 177.8595% 516.4190% 648.0585% 760.2680% 862.9275% 962.8270% 1,064.3465% 1,161.8160% 1,264.4155% 1,373.0650% 1,483.3745% 1,604.1840% 1,730.6335% 1,870.3130% 2,021.1625% 2,188.3220% 2,375.7015% 2,611.1810% 2,913.285% 3,374.980% 7,290.16
End of Forecast
Page 4
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 250.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 9.28 to 476.14 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.25
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 99.58Median 88.65Mode ---Standard Deviation 55.00Variance 3,025.16Skewness 1.03Kurtosis 4.27Coefficient of Variability 0.55Range Minimum 9.28Range Maximum 476.14Range Width 466.85Mean Standard Error 0.25
Frequency Chart
MMBNGL
.000
.005
.011
.016
.022
0
270.7
541.5
812.2
1083
0.00 62.50 125.00 187.50 250.00
50,000 Trials 740 Outliers
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields
Page 5
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBNGL100% 9.2895% 30.7490% 38.6685% 45.3080% 51.5575% 57.5970% 63.3965% 69.3060% 75.4655% 81.9450% 88.6545% 95.9440% 103.6135% 111.9430% 121.1225% 131.0420% 142.6215% 156.8910% 175.465% 203.950% 476.14
End of Forecast
Page 6
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Largest Oil Field
Summary:Display range is from 25.00 to 275.00 MMBOEntire range is from 25.78 to 399.75 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.25
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 109.43Median 95.91Mode ---Standard Deviation 55.29Variance 3,056.82Skewness 1.66Kurtosis 6.68Coefficient of Variability 0.51Range Minimum 25.78Range Maximum 399.75Range Width 373.97Mean Standard Error 0.25
Frequency Chart
MMBO
.000
.007
.014
.020
.027
0
339
678
1356
25.00 87.50 150.00 212.50 275.00
50,000 Trials 945 Outliers
Forecast: Largest Oil Field
Page 7
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Largest Oil Field (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBO100% 25.7895% 48.1090% 55.5885% 61.3480% 66.3475% 71.1570% 76.0265% 80.7560% 85.6755% 90.5550% 95.9145% 101.5240% 107.7335% 114.7630% 122.5825% 131.9220% 143.4815% 158.3010% 180.455% 219.030% 399.75
End of Forecast
Page 8
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields
Summary:Display range is from 2,500.00 to 22,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 3,390.48 to 31,801.28 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 16.77
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 11,815.08Median 11,331.74Mode ---Standard Deviation 3,749.46Variance 14,058,425.53Skewness 0.65Kurtosis 3.29Coefficient of Variability 0.32Range Minimum 3,390.48Range Maximum 31,801.28Range Width 28,410.80Mean Standard Error 16.77
Frequency Chart
BCFG
.000
.005
.011
.016
.022
0
271.5
543
814.5
1086
2,500.00 7,500.00 12,500.00 17,500.00 22,500.00
50,000 Trials 371 Outliers
Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields
Page 9
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile BCFG100% 3,390.4895% 6,569.4390% 7,365.8985% 7,956.5980% 8,466.3675% 8,950.8970% 9,435.0265% 9,911.1160% 10,379.6855% 10,844.9650% 11,331.7445% 11,846.5240% 12,375.8335% 12,923.3130% 13,504.5625% 14,194.1120% 14,945.5415% 15,814.6610% 16,955.225% 18,656.530% 31,801.28
End of Forecast
Page 10
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 1,400.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 181.92 to 2,185.79 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 1.10
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 708.87Median 673.18Mode ---Standard Deviation 246.65Variance 60,836.06Skewness 0.79Kurtosis 3.71Coefficient of Variability 0.35Range Minimum 181.92Range Maximum 2,185.79Range Width 2,003.87Mean Standard Error 1.10
Frequency Chart
MMBNGL
.000
.006
.012
.018
.025
0
306.2
612.5
918.7
1225
0.00 350.00 700.00 1,050.00 1,400.00
50,000 Trials 554 Outliers
Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields
Page 11
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBNGL100% 181.9295% 373.5890% 423.1385% 460.4680% 492.1375% 524.1170% 553.7965% 582.6660% 612.5955% 642.9150% 673.1845% 705.3740% 739.1435% 774.2730% 812.8925% 856.8520% 905.6515% 964.1810% 1,044.515% 1,166.110% 2,185.79
End of Forecast
Page 12
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Largest Gas Field
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 5,000.00 BCFGEntire range is from 383.01 to 5,998.42 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 4.44
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 2,053.58Median 1,804.24Mode ---Standard Deviation 993.79Variance 987,608.67Skewness 1.30Kurtosis 4.69Coefficient of Variability 0.48Range Minimum 383.01Range Maximum 5,998.42Range Width 5,615.40Mean Standard Error 4.44
Frequency Chart
BCFG
.000
.007
.014
.022
.029
0
359.5
719
1438
0.00 1,250.00 2,500.00 3,750.00 5,000.00
50,000 Trials 911 Outliers
Forecast: Largest Gas Field
Page 13
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: Largest Gas Field (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile BCFG100% 383.0195% 910.3190% 1,048.8685% 1,153.4880% 1,248.8475% 1,337.2970% 1,425.3265% 1,514.2260% 1,606.8955% 1,702.0950% 1,804.2445% 1,913.1040% 2,037.2635% 2,173.6930% 2,324.8125% 2,510.4920% 2,735.9915% 3,023.6910% 3,435.225% 4,109.650% 5,998.42
End of Forecast
Page 14
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: G-Risked Oil in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 800.00 MMBOEntire range is from 0.00 to 1,263.33 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.88
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 282.76Median 264.45Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 197.00Variance 38,810.44Skewness 0.50Kurtosis 2.98Coefficient of Variability 0.70Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 1,263.33Range Width 1,263.33Mean Standard Error 0.88
Frequency Chart
MMBO
.000
.037
.074
.111
.148
0
7422
0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00
50,000 Trials 451 Outliers
Forecast: G-Risked Oil in Oil Fields
Page 15
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: G-Risked Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBO100% 0.0095% 0.0090% 0.0085% 60.2080% 115.0375% 143.6070% 168.3365% 192.4560% 216.3355% 239.7550% 264.4545% 289.2140% 316.1635% 345.8430% 376.4425% 411.6820% 449.8815% 494.4110% 550.945% 633.440% 1,263.33
End of Forecast
Page 16
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 4,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 0.00 to 7,250.17 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 4.58
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 1,412.86Median 1,290.64Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 1,023.35Variance 1,047,240.06Skewness 0.68Kurtosis 3.44Coefficient of Variability 0.72Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 7,250.17Range Width 7,250.17Mean Standard Error 4.58
Frequency Chart
BCFG
.000
.037
.074
.111
.148
0
7422
0.00 1,125.00 2,250.00 3,375.00 4,500.00
50,000 Trials 316 Outliers
Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Oil Fields
Page 17
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile BCFG100% 0.0095% 0.0090% 0.0085% 267.5780% 546.6675% 691.4170% 818.6065% 934.1460% 1,053.2555% 1,168.7450% 1,290.6445% 1,418.6640% 1,553.7335% 1,701.3230% 1,863.3325% 2,040.2220% 2,245.0215% 2,482.8410% 2,801.985% 3,270.480% 7,250.17
End of Forecast
Page 18
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Oil Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 250.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 0.00 to 476.14 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.28
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 84.77Median 77.04Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 61.86Variance 3,826.22Skewness 0.72Kurtosis 3.56Coefficient of Variability 0.73Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 476.14Range Width 476.14Mean Standard Error 0.28
Frequency Chart
MMBNGL
.000
.037
.074
.111
.148
0
7422
0.00 62.50 125.00 187.50 250.00
50,000 Trials 627 Outliers
Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Oil Fields
Page 19
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBNGL100% 0.0095% 0.0090% 0.0085% 16.0180% 32.4275% 41.1870% 48.7765% 56.0560% 62.8355% 69.7350% 77.0445% 84.8140% 92.9135% 102.0430% 111.5625% 122.2320% 134.2415% 149.2410% 168.395% 197.680% 476.14
End of Forecast
Page 20
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Gas Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 25,000.00 BCFGEntire range is from 0.00 to 31,801.28 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 24.30
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 10,051.15Median 10,488.11Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 5,434.48Variance 29,533,556.90Skewness -0.34Kurtosis 2.86Coefficient of Variability 0.54Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 31,801.28Range Width 31,801.28Mean Standard Error 24.30
Frequency Chart
BCFG
.000
.037
.074
.111
.148
0
7422
0.00 6,250.00 12,500.00 18,750.00 25,000.00
50,000 Trials 83 Outliers
Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Gas Fields
Page 21
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile BCFG100% 0.0095% 0.0090% 0.0085% 4,693.5780% 6,772.0875% 7,608.2470% 8,249.6065% 8,812.3560% 9,375.8755% 9,933.0550% 10,488.1145% 11,044.1040% 11,634.1235% 12,245.6730% 12,879.4725% 13,581.1820% 14,414.7115% 15,325.9210% 16,499.305% 18,245.170% 31,801.28
End of Forecast
Page 22
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Gas Fields
Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 1,500.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 0.00 to 2,185.79 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 1.52
Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 603.30Median 619.81Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 339.26Variance 115,095.24Skewness -0.13Kurtosis 2.95Coefficient of Variability 0.56Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 2,185.79Range Width 2,185.79Mean Standard Error 1.52
Frequency Chart
MMBNGL
.000
.037
.074
.111
.148
0
7422
0.00 375.00 750.00 1,125.00 1,500.00
50,000 Trials 214 Outliers
Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Gas Fields
Page 23
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)
Percentiles:
Percentile MMBNGL100% 0.0095% 0.0090% 0.0085% 253.3680% 386.3175% 438.5670% 478.4865% 515.8860% 550.9555% 584.7050% 619.8145% 654.6640% 692.1035% 730.2130% 771.1325% 817.6520% 869.5215% 931.4210% 1,014.055% 1,139.470% 2,185.79
End of Forecast
Page 24
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Assumptions
Assumption: Number of Oil Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 2Likeliest 2Maximum 12
Selected range is from 2 to 12Mean value in simulation was 5
Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 42.05 62.05Standard Deviation 41.29 41.29
Selected range is from 0.00 to 380.00 20.00 to 400.00Mean value in simulation was 41.55 61.55
2 5 7 10 12
Number of Oil Fields
Page 25
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields (cont'd)
Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 3,000.00Likeliest 5,000.00Maximum 7,000.00
Selected range is from 3,000.00 to 7,000.00Mean value in simulation was 4,996.89
2.55 90.14 177.73 265.32 352.91
Sizes of Oil Fields
3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00 7,000.00
GOR in Oil Fields
Page 26
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 50.00Likeliest 60.00Maximum 70.00
Selected range is from 50.00 to 70.00Mean value in simulation was 59.99
Assumption: Number of Gas Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 12Likeliest 15Maximum 35
Selected range is from 12 to 35Mean value in simulation was 21
50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 70.00
LGR in Oil Fields
Page 27
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Assumption: Number of Gas Fields (cont'd)
Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields
Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 454.95 574.95Standard Deviation 582.62 582.62
Selected range is from 0.00 to 5,880.00 120.00 to 6,000.00Mean value in simulation was 445.51 565.51
12 18 24 29 35
Number of Gas Fields
14.57 1,356.19 2,697.80 4,039.42 5,381.04
Sizes of Gas Fields
Page 28
11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic
Monte Carlo Results
Assumption: LGR in Gas Fields
Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 40.00Likeliest 60.00Maximum 80.00
Selected range is from 40.00 to 80.00Mean value in simulation was 60.00
End of Assumptions
Simulation started on 12/8/98 at 8:30:09Simulation stopped on 12/8/98 at 9:55:32
40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00
LGR in Gas Fields
Page 29