TEM and TER Projects’ Master Plan Draft Final Report Geneva, 8 - 10 June 2005 TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC

TEM and TER Projects’ Master Plan Draft Final Report

Geneva, 8 - 10 June 2005

TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION

FOR EUROPE

2

UNECE TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT

Structure of the presentation

• Background

• Scope

• Terms of reference

• Elaboration

• Conclusions / Recommendation

• What’s next

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Background• Survey and review of TEM and TER (1999 – 2001)

• Approval of the short-term strategy (June 2001)

• Master Plan, first priority of the work 2003 – 2004

• Approval of the TOR (May 2003)

• Start of the elaboration of Master Plan (October 2003)

• Nomination of external consultants

- Prof. D. Tsamboulas (NTUA) - Prof. A. Pearman (Leeds University) - Mr. Z. Trcka (Czech Rep.) - Mr. L. Gaspar (Hungary) - Mr. D. Przybyla (Poland)

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Elaboration of a strategic plan of action for the implementation of the TEM Project objectives in terms of updated and prioritized rail and combined transport infrastructure needs of TEM member countries and their immediate neighbors

Scope

• Investment priorities

• Timetable for their realization

• Assessment of cost and financing arrangements

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Terms of ReferenceObjectives

Consistent and realistic investment strategy for the development of the road transport infrastructure in the wider TEM Region, supporting:

• Promotion of TEM Project goals

• Extension of TEN-T

• Development of Pan-European Transport Corridors

• Promotion of intermodality

• European transport integration

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Terms of Reference (cont’d)Tasks

• Review of TEM work and European initiatives• Socioeconomic framework - scenarios of growth• Methodology and main assumptions • Inventory of needs• Elaboration of Master Plan• Truck and coach transport problems• Funding questions and financing arrangements• Border crossing questions• Conclusions / recommendations / dissemination

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TEM Master Plan invited countries

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Elaboration Organisation

• PCO Main responsible

• National Experts Consolidate national information

• Invited organizations Thematic support/guidance

• External consultants Technical/ scientific assistance

TEM Master Plan Expert Group

PCO, National Experts, Organizations, Consultants, UNECE

TEM and TER Master Plan Coordination Group

PCOs, External Consultants, UNECE

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Elaboration – Initial time tableReviewed Work Time Plan

YEAR 2003 YEAR 2004

MONTHS

WP

1

SEPT

2

OCT

3

NOV

4

DEC

5

JAN

6

FEB

7

MARCH

8

APR

9

MAY

10

JUNE

11

JUL

12

AUG

SEP

WP0

WP1

WP2

WP3

WP4

WP5

WP6

WP7

WP8

WP9

Master Plan Coordination

Group Meetings

Master Plan TEM and TER

Expert Group Meetings

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Elaboration – MilestonesCoordinations Group Meetings

• 1st meeting, Budapest 16/9/03 • 2nd meeting, Warsaw 15/12/03• 3rd meeting, Geneva 9/6/04• 4th meeting, Budapest 15/11/04

TEM Master Plan Expert Group Meetings• 1st meeting, Bratislava, February 2004• 2nd meeting, Budapest, September 2004

Completion of work, March 2005

Prepration of separate volume (to follow soon)

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Chapter 1 TEM and TER Master Plan

- Introduction of the TEM and TER Projects and their Master Plan

- The TEM and TER environment

- General description of the report and work

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• Two scenarios of growth have been established ( Moderate and Optimistic)

• The year 2000 was chosen as the base year• Data from 1995-2000-2001-2002-2004 were used to

establish trends• Countries were divided in 3 groups

- EU member countries before 01-05-2004 (Group I)- EU member countries after 01-05-2004 (Group II)- Non-EU, non-acceding countries (Group III)

Chapter 2 Socio-economic framework and

scenarios of growth

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Transport trends Group I: PassengerAnnual growth transport by car (+ 1.32 to +1.81%)Annual growth transport bus/coach (+ 0.03 to +0.19%)Annual growth transport rail (+ 1.31 to +2.55%)Modal share road-rail the same, slight decrease for roadFreightAnnual growth transport road (+ 3.20 to +3.38%)Annual growth transport rail (+ 3.43 to +3.67%)Modal share road-rail the same, slight decrease for road


scenarios of growth (cont’d)

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Transport trends Group II: PassengerAnnual growth by car (+ 2.07 to +3.10%)Annual growth bus/coach (- 0.01 to -0.28%)Annual growth rail (+ 0.75 to +1.18%)Modal share road-rail the same, slight increase for roadFreightAnnual growth road (+ 2.49 to +2.77%)Annual growth rail (+ 2.57 to +2.59%)Modal share road-rail dramatic change (+43 road –60% Rail)



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Transport trends Group III: • Limited or no data existed to support forecasting• Based only on limited data from Bosnia&

Herzegovina, Serbia & Montenegro and FYROM• Accumulated road traffic growth ( +187 to

+255%)• Accumulated rail traffic growth (+61 to + 81%)



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Four Phases

A. Identification ( with three screening levels)

B. Forecasting (using scenarios of growth)

C. Evaluation (multi criteria analysis)

D. Prioritization (in three levels)

Chapter 3 Methodology on evaluation and

prioritization

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Phase A IdentificationLevel 1: Relevance (technical standards – TEM goals – on main axis-connecting with other regions)Level2: Readiness (project well defined – responsible agent-time plan)Level 3: Viability (10 mill € - IRR – Environmental aspects – Justified need)


prioritization (cont’d)

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Phase B Forecasting

Performed on macro level, using the alternative scenarios of growth, and available data as collected from countries through questionnaires (Templates)



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Phase C Evaluation (multi-criteria analysis)(1) Definition of criteria: - socio-economic return of investment

- functionality and coherency of the network

- strategic / political concerns of the network

(2) Quantification of criteria: (A=5, B=4, C=3, D=2, E=1) 5 highest

(3) Prioritization- Technical (direct application of evaluation providing the scores)

- Compliance with commitments, and corrective actions if needed

(4) Financial capability of country: (comparison to 1.5% of GDP)



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• Priority I: projects, which may be funded and implemented rapidly, including on-going projects up to 2010.

• Priority II: projects requiring some additional investigations for final definition before likely financing, or planned for implementation up to 2015.

• Priority III: projects requiring further investigations for final definition and scheduling before possible financing, or planned for implementation up to 2020.

• Priority IV: projects to be implemented in the long run, including the projects where insufficient data existed.



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Total Final Results• In total 491 TEM and TER Projects 101 billion € • 172 TER (51.5 billion €), 319 TEM (49.5 billion €) • TEM category I: 152 projects of value 25,3 billion € • TEM category II: 93 projects of value 23,2 billion € • TEM category III: 1 project of value 0,24 billion € • TEM category IV: 73 projects of value 0,9 billion €) • TEM 36 % have secured funding and to be completed by

2010• TEM (13 % of projects by 2015) , (10 % by 2020)

Chapter 4 Realization of the Master Plan (cont’d)

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Bottlenecks and Missing Links• Analysis of what may me considered as

a road bottleneck• Complexity of the work not possible to

be considered within set time frame and available resources for the Master Plan

• Missing links identified and proposed

Chapter 4 Realization of the Master Plan (cont’d)

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• Major parts of the TEM Network• EU TEN-T and High Level Group• Pan-European Corridors, MEDA• Euro-Asian Transport Links• Sections on which countries proposed projects• TIRS and REBIS studies• Intermodal terminals/freight villages and ports • Interconnection and continuity of networks

Chapter 5Master Plan Backbone Network and Links

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Chapter 6Funding considerations – Technical -

Institutional Aspects • Since funding is not secured for 40% of projects focus

- identification of possible sources of funding- eligibility criteria to receive funds- required procedures

• Main sources of funding include: EIB, EBRD, World Bank, EU Cohesion Fund - Structural Funds -ISPA – INTERREG

• Elements analyzed include: Initial approach, legal framework, eligibility criteria, appraisal, examination, monitoring, decision making, contract signature, etc.

• Possibility of private participation, via PPP

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• Inventory of border crossing points was made

• Relevant GIS maps

• Identification of border crossing problems

• Recommendations for problems alleviation

Chapter 7Border Crossing Issues

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General conclusions • Master Plan elaboration has so far achieved its intended

goals by presenting an investment strategy in the wider TEM and TER region, which supports the: Extension of TEN-T, implementation of pan-European Corridors, promotion of intermodal transport, maximum effectiveness of transport infrastructure

• If implementation is ensured, will assist:Economic growth in countries concerned, well being of their populations, integration & harm. in Europe - beyond

• TEM Master Plan process has been successful, but the work is ongoing

Chapter 8Conclusions / Recommendations

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Recommendations• Missing or insufficient data should be completed with

direct inputs of countries • Update of the Backbone network from time to time• Priority projects monitoring and implementation• Close cooperation among TEM countries, between them

and their immediate neighbours and TEM PCO • The presentation of the shape of TEM Backbone

Networks in 2010, 2015, and 2020 should be among the major tasks of TEM in future

• A review of the strategy by 2008

Chapter 8Conclusions / Recommendations (cont’d)

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• Implementation is a long-term process that requires political will and commitment from countries

• Implementation of standards and monitoring the progress in bringing TEM Backbone network up to the required standards could be also among future tasks

• To facilitate this process, countries not yet members to TEM Project, should seriously consider their full membership

• TEM Project provide an ideal framework to ensure the follow-up work

Chapter 9The Way Ahead

TRANS-EUROPEAN NORT-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION

FOR EUROPE

FOR INTEGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT

IN EUROPE

Documents

TEM and TER Projects’ Master Plan Draft Final Report Geneva, 8 - 10 June 2005 TRANS-EUROPEAN NORTH-SOUTH MOTORWAY (TEM) PROJECT UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC