1995-2000: Unprecedented growthInternet access boom equals fixed
line bonanzaCorporate data needs skyrocketNew revenue streams (US
data)Hosting goes from zero to $2.5 billioneCommerce services reach
$20 billionMobile services create a boomEurope goes from 6%
penetration to 54%Japan goes from 7% to 50%Hundreds of millions of
handsets sold annually
There is an irreversible long-term trend in demand for telecoms
Source: Analysys
PP376002
driven, in part, by technology Coopers Law states that the
number of conversations (voice and data) conducted over a given
area, in all of the useful radio spectrum, has doubled every two
and a half years for the last 105 years, ever since Marconi
discovered radio in 1895Source: ArrayComm, Martin Copper
and leading to a revolution in the structure of the economy
Telecoms revenue is an accurate indicator of wealthSource:
Analysys
In a world where trade flows look like the Internet
Prices are expected to continue to decline to less than
EUR0.05/minSource: Analysys Cutting the Cost
We know that demand grows steadily in the long run Source:
ITU/Analysys
so why have stock markets reacted like this?Source:
BigCharts.com
Capacity is being reduced Source: Telecoms job cuts, Financial
Times, September 2001
and the change in business climate could last one year or
more
2001: Operators feel the bust in debt . . . Debt levels of 5
European telcos (millions of Euros)Source: Company reports
. . . and in share pricesShare prices of 5 European telcos (US
dollars)Source: Dow Jones, from ADRs listed on NYSE
